Rafael Devers at +376 headlines the Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants home run board — 8 bats priced to go deep tonight, and the board below shows the book paying the most on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (SF) | +376 | NoVig | 21.0% | 32 |
| JJ Bleday (CIN) | +590 | NoVig | 14.5% | 31 |
| Eugenio Suárez (CIN) | +625 | Bet365 | 13.8% | 30 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | +650 | Fanatics | 13.3% | 32 |
| Nate Furman (SF) | +900 | DraftKings 🎁 | 10.0% | 2 |
| Grant McCray (SF) | +912 | Underdog 🎁 | 9.9% | 21 |
| Sal Stewart (CIN) | +950 | Fanatics | 9.5% | 29 |
| Drew Gilbert (HOU) | +950 | Fanatics | 9.5% | 29 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 25, 2026 · 10:10 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Oracle Park: park index 70.1 · wind 12 mph.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — 18% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · homers every 19 PA against righties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips — but cold air at 60°. (model confidence C)
- books: best +387 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +387
- Sal Stewart (CIN) — punishes four-seam fastballs 15% of the time, and that is 20% of what this starter throws · 17% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips — but cold air at 60°. (model confidence C)
- books: best +900 at NoVig | exchanges: ProphetX +715 · NoVig +900
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — 14% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips — but cold air at 60°. (model confidence C)
- books: best +666 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +666 · NoVig +614
- Eugenio Suárez (CIN) — 33% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · homers every 15 PA against righties — but cold air at 60°. (model confidence C)
- books: best +650 at Fanatics | exchanges: ProphetX +588
- Tyler Stephenson (CIN) — punishes four-seam fastballs 16% of the time, and that is 20% of what this starter throws · 16% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · homers every 24 PA against righties — but cold air at 60°. (model confidence C)
- books: best +870 at FanDuel | exchanges: ProphetX +843
- JJ Bleday (CIN) — 31% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind — but cold air at 60°. (model confidence C)
- books: best +575 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +539
- Nate Furman (SF) — 34% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind — but cold air at 60°. (model confidence C)
- books: best +900 at DraftKings
- Turner Hill (SF) — 36% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · sees the starter a 3rd time — but cold air at 60°. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1550 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +764
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- DFSnDonuts Picks on Tails (#5 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-122). Bet now → NoVig
- Stokastic MLB Prop Tool on Tails (#3 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Ke'Bryan Hayes Over 0.5 Total Batter Strikeouts (+138). Bet now → DraftKings
- JediModi on Tails likes Rafael Devers Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+350). Bet now → Bet365
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes these plays:
- FOTP on Tails likes Chase Burns Over 6.5 Total Strikeouts (-104). Bet now
- SEvansBets on Tails likes Chase Burns Over 6.5 Total Strikeouts (+111). Bet now
More from these experts on Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants. DFSnDonuts Picks, FOTP, JediModi, SEvansBets post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals · Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins · Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels · Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals · Houston Astros @ New York Yankees · Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves · Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets · Minnesota Twins @ Oakland Athletics. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants today? Rafael Devers at +376 (NoVig) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play.
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Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
