Lindy opened Tuesday's show still shaking off Monday, a night he called a "post buttkicking edition": a small early Washington Nationals first-five run line cashed behind a huge CJ Abrams game, Cleveland's run line was a bright spot, and then everything else broke wrong. Zero home runs converted for the first time in a long stretch, 0-for-5 on the night. "I did not enjoy this day," he said, before promising to turn the page. Tuesday's page turns somewhere he doesn't usually go: for the first time in a while, there isn't a single home run pick anywhere on his card. Instead, six plays lean entirely on strikeout matchups, a run line he's ridden all week, a game total, and one moneyline built on a genuinely neutral pitching matchup. That shift, from power props to pure process, is the story of the night.
Ethan Pecko — one of the featured players on today's card.
The Quick Answer
Lindy's card for Tuesday, August 25 comes down to six official plays: the Cleveland Guardians (CLE) on the run line against the Los Angeles Angels, Ethan Pecko (HOU) over 4.5 strikeouts against the New York Yankees, Kyle Harrison (MIL) over 5.5 strikeouts against the New York Mets, the Baltimore Orioles (BAL) and St. Louis Cardinals (STL) game total under 9 behind Matthew Liberatore, Aaron Nola (PHI) over 5.5 strikeouts against the Seattle Mariners, and the Cincinnati Reds (CIN) on the moneyline against the San Francisco Giants. He worked through several bigger leans, too, none fired yet, including an Ian Seymour (TB) strikeouts-under lean and an Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline he's still watching drift. The full breakdown of all six plays, plus every lean he's still just watching, is below.
Watch: Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks
Lindy built this card live on the OddsShopper channel, working through Tuesday's full schedule game by game.
The Card At A Glance
| The Play | The market | The number |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians (CLE) | Run line | +129 (Kalshi) |
| Ethan Pecko (HOU) | Over 4.5 strikeouts | +124 |
| Kyle Harrison (MIL) | Over 5.5 strikeouts | -140 |
| Orioles (BAL) / Cardinals (STL) | Total | Under 9, -115 |
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | Over 5.5 strikeouts | Small play, no price stated on air |
| Cincinnati Reds (CIN) | Moneyline | Even money |
There were several bigger spots he passed on, too: an Ian Seymour (TB) strikeouts-under he called "grasping at straws," a Dylan Crews (WSH) home run number still waiting on numbers, a Carter Jensen (KC) home run prop contingent on his spot in the lineup, a Bryce Elder (ATL) earned-runs number he's only half-sold on, a Wyatt Langford (TEX) total-bases prop waiting on more books, and an Arizona Diamondbacks (ARI) moneyline he's still hoping drifts overnight. Those stay leans, not plays. This recap only credits him with what he actually fired.
Cleveland's Run Line Is Officially A Habit Now
The first official play of the night is the one Lindy keeps coming back to. "Out of the middle of nowhere," Cleveland has "become like a highlight of my life," he said, two Jo Adell (CLE) home runs hit and three Guardians run lines cashed in the last week alone. Tonight's case is about who's out of the lineup as much as who's in it: with Kyle Manzardo (CLE), who Lindy called "a flat nothing this season," and David Fry (CLE) both out against Angels starter Walbert Ureña (LAA), Nathaniel Lowe (CLE) takes over at first base, an offensive upgrade Lindy said shows up the moment you simulate the game out. "I'd rather when I'm going to back a team, generate runs, because that's the name of the game," he said, taking the run line over the moneyline to lean into that steadier lineup rather than chase power. He landed a plus-129 number on Kalshi by posting the order himself rather than paying a taker fee. "I'll take the one-cent difference to go that direction," he said, sizing it at .35 units. Cleveland Guardians (CLE) on the run line at +129 (Kalshi), .35 units, against the Los Angeles Angels.
Ethan Pecko's Stuff Says More Than His Record Does
From a lineup-construction case to a pure stuff case: Ethan Pecko (HOU) takes the mound against a Yankees lineup that has run the highest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitching since July 1. Lindy's argument starts with Pecko's last start, where he graded out at 107 stuff-plus, the best raw arsenal of any pitcher on the night's card, even though location cost him: only three and two-thirds innings on 89 pitches. Two things have softened the matchup since that number became public, Lindy noted honestly: the Yankees added Luis Garcia at the beginning of August, and Cody Bellinger is back and will hit against the right-hander. "It's not that good of a spot relative to what it's been," he admitted, "but there's still enough left." Only Pecko's changeup graded below a 105 stuff-plus in that start, and the middle of the Yankees order behind Bellinger, names like Spencer Jones, still gives up enough swing-and-miss to make the number work. At plus 124 for 4.5 strikeouts, Lindy was explicit about the math: "I'm only going to win this bet 50% of the time... it's price and probability." Ethan Pecko (HOU) over 4.5 strikeouts against the New York Yankees, +124.
Kyle Harrison Gets A Green Light Against A Soft Mets Order
Kyle Harrison (MIL) carries a track record Lindy trusts: 10 and 8 strikeouts across his first two of his last three starts, with a rough outing against the Padres sandwiched in between where the Brewers deliberately capped him at 90 pitches. That workload management is the tell, Lindy said, that Harrison is cleared to work back up to 90-95 pitches tonight against a Mets lineup whose back half he thinks is soft on contact. Francisco Alvarez (NYM) should move up in the order, and Mets starter Zac Thornton has impressed Lindy lately, which only sharpens how hard this spot is for the Brewers lefty's opposite number. "I just see five and a half strikeouts and minus 140 as an auto play against the Mets," he said. Kyle Harrison (MIL) over 5.5 strikeouts against the New York Mets, -140.
The Cardinals-Orioles Total Comes Down To A Half Run
Where the first three plays chase strikeouts, this one chases a number. Conditions read like a hitter's night, 87 degrees and 50% humidity, but Lindy discounted that fast: "it is in St. Louis where it just never is all that good of hitting weather, cuz this ballpark is a cavern." He expects Orioles starter Chris Bassitt to be limited, both bullpens (Baltimore's "still somewhat functional despite what people want to think," St. Louis's effective all year) to hold, and Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore (STL), trending better in his recent starts, to keep the door mostly closed against a lefty-shy Orioles lineup that Lindy expects to roll out mostly platoon bats against him. The market has an 8.5 sitting at even money; Lindy preferred paying for the extra half run. "I do like having that half run here at minus 115. I prioritize that," he said, sized at .3 units, expecting something close to a 5-4 final either way. Baltimore Orioles (BAL) at St. Louis Cardinals (STL), total under 9, -115, .3 units.
Aaron Nola's Home-Road Split Turns Cal Raleigh Into A Problem
Aaron Nola (PHI) travels to Seattle carrying a home-road split Lindy keeps flagging without fully explaining. What he does know: Citizens Bank Park is one of the toughest parks in baseball on a pitcher who gives up lefty power, and Nola gives up plenty of it. Tonight he's on the road, but he still has to face a Mariners lineup that may finally have a fully healthy Cal Raleigh back near the top of the order. "I think Cal Raleigh ends up in the top five of this lineup tomorrow no matter what," Lindy said, calling George Kirby's opposite number Nola a small, precise play. "Just a small play to win a quarter, but that stuff adds up." He didn't give an exact price on air, so check the live number before you follow this one. Aaron Nola (PHI) over 5.5 strikeouts against the Seattle Mariners, a quarter-unit play.
The Cincinnati Reds Moneyline Is A Bet On A Genuinely Neutral Matchup
The last official play closes the night on pure process. Brady Singer (CIN) has had a brutal recent stretch, four rough starts in Cincinnati and one at Nationals Park, and his ERA reflects it. But Lindy argued the park-splits noise doesn't apply here: "remember where Adrian Houser pitches half of his games and where Brady Singer pitches half of his. That stuff is irrelevant to me. This is far more of a neutral pitching matchup." What decides it instead is the lineups: a Giants order Lindy said he still doesn't rate at all, against a Reds lineup he called the better one top to bottom, even after watching Cincinnati get shut down in an earlier game that day. Priced at even money, he called it a fair coin flip worth taking. "I'm playing this for .35 units." Cincinnati Reds (CIN) on the moneyline against the San Francisco Giants, even money, .35 units.
That closes out the six official fires, and the pattern across them is the story of the night: three strikeout reads built on stuff and matchup (Pecko, Harrison, Nola), a run line built on who's out of Cleveland's lineup rather than who's in it, a total built on a pitcher's park doing what it always does, and a moneyline built on stripping out home-road noise to find a genuine coin flip.
Not one prop on this card is chasing a barrel or a wind gust. That's a real departure from how Lindy usually builds this show, and it's the whole reason tonight's card reads more like a math test than a power hunt.
What Lindy Passed On
Not every spot he dug into made the six-play card. He opened the show entirely passing on Boston Red Sox starter Payton Tolle (BOS) at Miami Marlins starter Tyler Phillips (MIA), staying away from a Marlins lineup missing Kyle Stowers (MIA) and calling LoanDepot Park a park he's avoided for years of doing this show. From there he worked through Ian Seymour (TB) against Detroit's Jackson Jobe (DET), a spot he called genuinely appealing on stuff but ultimately passed: "we are really, really grasping at straws trying to make anything work in this ballpark... I can't click on that as of right now." In Colorado, he floated a Dylan Crews (WSH) home run or double number against Kyle Freeland (COL), built on wind blowing out and a favorable park, but the probable pitcher wasn't even confirmed and he never got comfortable: "we're still waiting on numbers." In Toronto, a Carter Jensen (KC) home run number at plus 422 depends entirely on where he bats. "I'm not going to bet this night before," he said, "but if he's leading off, this is an auto play." In Atlanta, he's torn on the Los Angeles Dodgers first-five number and only "probably" willing to attack Bryce Elder (ATL) over 2.5 earned runs. In Texas, a Wyatt Langford (TEX) over 1.5 total bases number is sitting at standard odds, but he's waiting to see if the price holds. In San Diego, he flagged Jackson Merrill (SD) against Paul Skenes (PIT) as interesting purely on price, without committing. He also passed again on the Arizona Diamondbacks (ARI) moneyline against Chicago Cubs starter Clay Holmes (CHC) at minus 106, the same side that got run over by the Cubs on Monday: "Clay Holmes, he's been good enough. I don't really want to be clicking this button at the moment," still watching for a better number. And in Minnesota, he pumped the brakes on Twins starter Taj Bradley (MIN) props against the Athletics, while flagging Luke Keaschall (MIN) leading off at a price he called "just wrong," plus 658 on Underdog, but still wants better than plus 625 before he plays it. None of those count as plays in this recap, only as spots he's still watching.
Also Grinding The Board: Today's +EV Hits
Lindy's card leans on strikeouts, a run line, and a moneyline tonight, but OddsShopper's own +EV strikeout board flagged real value sitting inside some of the exact same games already on his card. Every number below is live off the board, de-vigged to a fair price.
| Player / Team | Market | Best price | Fair (de-vigged) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin McGonigle (DET) | Under 0.5 Hits | +175 (Bet365) | +165 fair |
| Dillon Dingler (DET) | Under 0.5 Hits | +155 (Bet365) | +150 fair |
| Javier Báez (DET) | Under 0.5 Hits | +125 (Bet365) | +121 fair |
| Hao-Yu Lee (DET) | Under 0.5 Hits | +155 (Bet365) | +154 fair |
| Ian Seymour (TB) | Under 5.5 Strikeouts | -105 (Bet365) | -112 fair |
| Michael King (SD) | Under 5.5 Strikeouts | -120 (Bet365) | -127 fair |
| San Diego Padres (SD) | Moneyline | -110 (Bet365) | -111 fair |
| Texas Rangers (TEX) | Moneyline | -110 (Bet365) | -111 fair |
| Mike Yastrzemski (SF) | Over 0.5 Hits | +130 (Fanatics) | +129 fair |
| Royals (KC) @ Blue Jays (TOR) | Total | Over 8.5, -105 (HardRock) | -106 fair |
That board clusters almost entirely inside games Lindy already had open tonight. Four of the top five rows, McGonigle, Dingler, Báez, and Hao-Yu Lee, are all Detroit Tigers bats going under 0.5 hits in the exact same Rays-Tigers game carrying Lindy's Ian Seymour lean, the market pricing the same soft-contact night Lindy was chasing with Seymour's strikeout number. Michael King and the Padres moneyline both sit in the Pirates-Padres game Lindy flagged but never played. The Texas Rangers moneyline lands in the same Rangers-White Sox game as his Wyatt Langford lean. Mike Yastrzemski shares a game with his fired Cincinnati Reds moneyline play. And the Royals-Blue Jays total sits in the same game as his Carter Jensen lean.
Take the Kevin McGonigle row as the worked example of how that edge gets found. Bet365 has McGonigle's hits under at +175, which needs to hit only about 36.4% of the time to break even. Strip the vig out of the full two-way market and the fair, no-vig price on that same side comes out to +165, a true probability of about 37.7%, roughly a 1.4 percentage-point cushion between what the price demands and what it's actually worth. Priced out as expected value, taking +175 when the fair number is +165 works out to about a 3.8% edge, the largest on tonight's board. Same process on every row above: check every book, de-vig it to a fair price, and only take the number that's actually beatable. Before you shop tonight's card, DraftKings' current offer, and how to claim it, is worth a look while you're comparing prices across books.
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OddsShopper takes the number-hunting off your plate. It checks every book at once, de-vigs the market to a fair price, and surfaces the bets where the price is better than the real chance of it happening, the exact process behind the board above and the plus-124 case Lindy built on Ethan Pecko tonight. For the mechanics behind why that gap exists in the first place, how sportsbooks make money walks through the vig in plain language.
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This recap covers Eric Lindquist's official plays from the Tuesday, August 25 "Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks" show; follow his full card on Tails. Bets are opinions, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly, 21+.
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