Eric Lindquist is up more than a unit on the week heading into a 16-game Friday card, and he builds it in an order that says something about the slate itself: six official plays, and the first one that hits the card isn't a home run number at all. Home runs have been the calling card of this show since mid-May, and his free Lindy's Long Balls column is up more than 9.5 units in barely two weeks on its own. Friday's card leans somewhere else, a strikeout number he pushes off its opening line before he'll touch it, and it sets up a night where a long-priced Christian Yelich home run number is one he still won't click. Every play, every lean, and where OddsShopper's own board is separately finding value in the same games, is below.
Jared Jones — one of the featured players on today's slate.
The Quick Answer
Lindy's Friday, September 4 card comes down to six official plays: Jared Jones (PIT) over his strikeout total against the Los Angeles Angels, a short-priced Blaze Alexander (BAL) number built on a lineup upgrade, a small-stake Jacob Marcy (MIA) home run price if he lands in the Marlins' lineup, the New York Mets (NYM) on the run line against San Francisco, a Kansas City Royals (KC) first-five team total built around a limited Jameson Taillon start, and Walker Buehler (SD) going over his outs total against the Yankees. He also worked through a long list of leans he never clicked, including a long Christian Yelich (MIL) home run price he isn't forcing, a Kumar Rocker (TEX) strikeouts-under, and a Blake Snell (LAD) strikeout ladder he's still weighing late in the show. The full breakdown, including one game he flatly declined to touch, is below.
Watch: Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks
Lindy built Friday's 16-game card, including the early Tigers-Guardians doubleheader he mostly waves off, live on the OddsShopper channel.
The Card At A Glance
| The Play | The market | The read |
|---|---|---|
| Jared Jones (PIT) | Over his strikeout total vs. LAA | Pushed off the opening number once the Angels' righty bats got confirmed in the lineup |
| Blaze Alexander (BAL) | A short-priced number vs. BOS | A seventh-spot bat who should be hitting higher against a lefty-heavy Boston plan |
| Jacob Marcy (MIA) | To hit a home run vs. CHC | Plus-money, only live if he's in Friday's lineup |
| New York Mets (NYM) | Run line vs. SF | Plus-money, built on a bullpen mismatch |
| Kansas City Royals (KC) | First-five team total vs. TOR | Close to a coinflip price against a pitch-limited Jameson Taillon |
| Walker Buehler (SD) | Over his outs total vs. NYY | Priced by Lindy in the low 60s to mid-60s percent range |
Jared Jones Anchors The Card Once The Angels' Lineup Clears
The first official play of the night needed a lineup update to happen. Jared Jones (PIT) has been the Pirates' listed starter all week without ever actually taking the ball, bumped by a bullpen game two straight days running. Friday, Jones finally gets the ball against a Los Angeles Angels (LAA) lineup that scratched a lefty bat in favor of Jose Siri, a righty, sliding into the middle of the order. That's the swing that made the play: a righty bat in the heart of an Angels lineup that hasn't been especially strikeout-averse over the last week and a half. Lindy pushed his own number off the opening total once that lineup news landed, and he's over the new number in Pittsburgh.
The playJared Jones (PIT) over his strikeout total against the Angels, deployed only after the lineup swing confirmed the matchup.
A Lineup Upgrade Sends Lindy To Blaze Alexander
Lindy expected pinch-hit risk for a few Orioles hitters against a tough lefty last night and didn't get it, and he reads that as the lineup card settling into a shape that helps Blaze Alexander (BAL) tonight. He's currently in the seven-hole against a Boston Red Sox (BOS) plan that goes lefty-heavy, but Lindy thinks Baltimore's lineup card, expected to get Jackson Holiday back today, only moves Alexander up from here.
"Just a ridiculous number." Lindy, on Blaze Alexander's price given where he's about to hit in Baltimore's order.
The price on him is short, close to even money, for a bat that hasn't even been priced for the lineup slot he's about to occupy. Blaze Alexander (BAL), a short number that only gets better if Baltimore's lineup moves the way Lindy expects.
The Small-Stake Home Run Number That Still Made The Card
Miami's ballpark is one Lindy routinely avoids for home run plays, but he made an exception for Jacob Marcy (MIA) against the Chicago Cubs (CHC). Shota Imanaga (CHC) has been unusually hittable to lefties this season, a real platoon-driven outlier for a pitcher who normally limits contact, and Marcy has enough raw power to punish that specific weakness if he's in Friday's lineup at his usual sixth spot. Lindy sized this one at just 0.1 units, a fraction of a normal play, because the lineup card isn't locked and Chicago has other bullpen arms it could turn to before Marcy ever sees Imanaga. Small stake, real price. Jacob Marcy (MIA) to hit a home run, plus-money, conditional on Friday's Marlins lineup.
The Mets' Bullpen Mismatch Beats Nolan McLean's Rotation Spot
Nolan McLean (NYM) has been one of the harder Mets starters for Lindy to get a consistent read on this season, mostly good but not the kind of pitcher he'd call elite, and Friday's matchup isn't really about him. It's about a San Francisco Giants (SF) bullpen that lost most of its impact arms at the deadline, facing a New York Mets (NYM) lineup that gets Juan Soto back alongside a group of righty bats coming out of slow stretches. Lindy likes the Mets enough to take them on the run line at a plus-money price, betting the offense creates enough separation against a Giants pen he doesn't trust deep into the game. New York Mets (NYM) run line, plus-money.
Kansas City's First Five Targets A Pitcher Who Shouldn't Be Out There
Jameson Taillon (TOR) is walking straight back from a stint on the injured list, hasn't pitched in a game since August 10, and topped out at 48 pitches over three and a third innings in his last rehab outing. Lindy's read is blunt: give him four or five innings against a Kansas City Royals (KC) lineup and the Royals should light him up, led by Carter Jensen, who Lindy correctly flagged months ago as a home-run threat once the calendar turned to summer at Kauffman Stadium. Rather than betting the full game, Lindy takes it in the window where Taillon's limited pitch count matters most. Kansas City Royals (KC) first-five team total over, at a price close to a coinflip against Toronto.
Walker Buehler's Reverse Splits Make Him The Furthest Thing From A Home Run Bet
The most surprising play of the night for a host who built his brand on home runs is a strikeout total on the other side of the ball. Walker Buehler (SD) has been a genuine reverse-splits pitcher in 2026, notably better against left-handed hitters than righties, and a New York Yankees (NYY) lineup that leans heavily on lefty bats against right-handed pitching runs straight into that shape. Lindy walks through his own math on air rather than just citing the market: he prices Buehler's true win rate in the low 60s to mid-60s percent range on this number, comfortably clear of the roughly 60% a price in that neighborhood requires to be worth laying. It's the one play on the card he frames as a parlay piece rather than a standalone bet, but he's over the total. Walker Buehler (SD) over his outs total against the Yankees.
What Lindy Is Watching, Not Yet Plays
A 16-game board, doubleheader included, leaves a long list of spots Lindy talked through but didn't fire. Christian Yelich (MIL) is the biggest one: a long home run price against Rhett Lowder (CIN), who Lindy says gives up heavy lefty fly-ball contact in a short porch, but he isn't forcing the number yet. Ozzie Albies (ATL) is close behind, a short price against Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) that Lindy says should be tighter than what Atlanta's book is offering given the multiple platoon at-bats Sánchez's long outings hand him.
Kumar Rocker (TEX) going under his strikeout total against a Tampa Bay Rays (TB) lineup that avoids strikeouts about as well as anyone in baseball stayed a lean rather than a play, and JT Ginn (ATH), a pitcher Lindy says is quietly excellent at limiting power despite ugly-looking results at home in Sutter Health Park, is a strikeouts-under he wanted more books to post before he'd click it. Cristian Javier (HOU) drew real interest against a Ketel Marte (ARI) getting a fresh start on the road after a rough Arizona home stand, but Lindy explicitly called it not a play as of the show. He also passed entirely on the Cardinals-Rockies total at Coors Field, saying his own number sits closer to 10.5 than the market's 11.5 but keeping it off the card anyway. And with James Wood back in Washington's lineup, Blake Snell (LAD) is carrying a live strikeout-ladder number Lindy flagged late in the show without deploying it, calling the whole Tigers-Guardians doubleheader too muddled on starting pitching to touch at all.
Also Grinding The Board: Tonight's +EV Hits
Lindy's card leans on lineup reads and reverse splits, but OddsShopper's own board is separately finding real positive expected value in three of the same games he's already covering tonight. Every number below is live off the board, de-vigged to a fair price.
| Market | Best price | Fair (de-vigged) |
|---|---|---|
| Hector Rodriguez (CIN): Under 0.5 Total Hits | +160 (Bet365) | +124 fair |
| Drake Baldwin (ATL): Under 0.5 Total Hits | +175 (Bet365) | +156 fair |
| Ranger Suárez (BOS): Under 5.5 Total Strikeouts | -113 (DraftKings) | -117 fair |
Hector Rodriguez (CIN) is the leadoff bat Lindy name-checked without a number attached in the same Reds-Brewers game where his Christian Yelich home run lean lives, and the board's biggest edge tonight, over 16%, is on him going hitless. Drake Baldwin (ATL) shows up in the same Braves-Phillies game as Lindy's Ozzie Albies lean, a second angle in a matchup he's already circling. Ranger Suarez (BOS), the pitcher whose Red Sox rotation spot is part of why Lindy likes Blaze Alexander's lineup math tonight, has real edge on the board going the other direction, under his own strikeout total against Baltimore.
Start Your Free Trial
OddsShopper checks every book at once, de-vigs the market to a fair price, and surfaces the bets where the price beats the real chance of it happening, the exact process behind the hits above. Shop every partner book before you fire tonight's card, including DraftKings's current offer, and how to claim it.
Try OddsShopper Pro and use code LINDY25 for 25% off your first week or month.
You can also shop the live board yourself at the OddsShopper MLB odds screen, or use our free bet converter if a book credits you a bonus bet off any of tonight's action.
This recap covers Eric Lindquist's official plays from the Friday, September 4 "Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks" show; follow his full card, including his daily home run column, on Tails. Bets are opinions, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly, 21+.
More on this: MLB Picks Hub: Today's Live Boards and Series · Lindy's MLB Picks, Thursday, September 10: A Pe\u00f1a Bomb Against Zack · NFL Picks Hub: Week 1 Odds, Win Totals, Props · LINDY'S LONG BALLS: The Show Got There First \u2014 Soup-Thick Air At Camden · LINDY'S LONG BALLS: The Account Has Officially DOUBLED
