September, meet the tally. Suzuki didn't just cash our ticket Monday — he cashed it TWICE, taking Kyle Harrison deep in the second and going back-to-back with Bregman in the fourth while the Cubs hung a 17-3 massacre on Milwaukee with a club-record NINE home runs. Nine! Our 20-cent ticket needed exactly one; the Friendly Confines sent two out of pure generosity, then kept going until the scoreboard operator filed for overtime. That's the building this column built its heater on, and it capped an August where the Cubs set an NL record with 62 team homers.
Now the half you didn't see coming: Gunnar's night at Coors — COORS — produced a 2-1 game with ZERO home runs, a 1:38 rain delay (we told you to watch that radar), and the only ball that tried to leave getting robbed over the wall. Baseball remains undefeated at humbling anyone who thinks altitude does the work by itself. And my Stewart side dish? Robbed at the center-field wall too — by Jackson Merrill, of all people, a man who has appeared on this very tally three times. Betrayal has a face, and it plays center for San Diego. And one loop to hold open while you read: the bottom of tonight's card belongs to a bat that has ALREADY paid this column once in the last week — and the conditions that paid us are back. Scroll patiently.
| Date | Play | Price | Effective | Result | Risked | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/17 | Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 16¢ | +490 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.23u |
| 8/17 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 21¢ | +351 | ✅ | 0.25u | +0.88u |
| 8/17 | Mookie Betts (LAD) | 15¢ | +529 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/18 | Jackson Merrill (SD) | 13¢ | +625 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/18 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 18¢ | +425 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.06u |
| 8/18 | Mike Trout (LAA) | 19¢ | +398 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/18 | Jo Adell (CLE) | 14¢ | +573 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.43u |
| 8/18 | Corbin Carroll (AZ) | 9¢ | +944 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/19 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 14¢ | +573 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/19 | Bryce Harper (PHI) | 19¢ | +398 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/19 | Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 15¢ | +529 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/20 | Pete Alonso (BAL) | 21¢ | +351 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/20 | Zach Neto (LAA) | 17¢ | +456 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.14u |
| 8/21 | Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 16¢ | +490 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/21 | Julio Rodríguez (SEA) | 17¢ | +456 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/21 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 21¢ | +351 | ✅ | 0.25u | +0.88u |
| 8/22 | Corbin Carroll (AZ) | 16¢ | +490 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/22 | Jo Adell (CLE) | 19¢ | +398 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.00u |
| 8/23 | Jo Adell (CLE) | 23¢ | +313 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/23 | Jackson Merrill (SD) | 18¢ | +425 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.06u |
| 8/23 | Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) | 13¢ | +625 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/24 | Junior Caminero (TB) | 20¢ | +373 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/24 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 21¢ | +351 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/24 | Byron Buxton (MIN) | 28¢ | +257 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/25 | Bryce Harper (PHI) | 16¢ | +490 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/25 | Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 15¢ | +529 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/25 | Manny Machado (SD) | 13¢ | +625 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/26 | Matt Olson (ATL) | 18¢ | +425 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.06u |
| 8/26 | Pete Alonso (BAL) | 18¢ | +425 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.06u |
| 8/27 | Jac Caglianone (KC) | 19¢ | +398 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.00u |
| 8/27 | Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 17¢ | +456 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.14u |
| 8/28 | Matt Olson (ATL) | 26¢ | +266 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/28 | Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 14¢ | +574 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/28 | Zach Neto (LAA) | 17¢ | +456 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/29 | Alex Bregman (CHC) | 13¢ | +625 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.56u |
| 8/29 | Jackson Merrill (SD) | 12¢ | +685 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/30 | Sal Stewart (CIN) | 21¢ | +351 | ✅ | 0.25u | +0.88u |
| 8/30 | Pete Alonso (BAL) | 27¢ | +252 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/31 | Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 19¢ | +398 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/31 | Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 20¢ | +373 | ✅ | 0.25u | +0.93u |
| TOTAL | 15-for-40 | 10.00u | +10.06u (101% ROI) |
Read that bottom row slowly: 10 units risked, 10.06 units of profit. In two weeks of daily quarter-unit sprinkles, the account has officially DOUBLED. Fifteen winners, every card posted before first pitch, every loss graded in public. Tonight we celebrate the only way this column knows how — three more picks, counted DOWN to the one I'd keep if you took the other two away from me. It's at the bottom of this page on purpose. Pace yourself accordingly.
No. 3 — Manny Machado: 1+ HR (21¢, Effective +351) — Padres @ Reds
Cincinnati is under a heat advisory — 97° this afternoon with a triple-digit heat index — in the yard that rates a 114 homer factor, the bounciest building on tonight's card. Into that toaster walks Nick Lodolo, a lefty this column has been circling for one reason: the ERA says 5.24, but the expected ERA says 6.57 — first-percentile stuff, meaning the contact he allows is WORSE than the damage he's been charged with. The bill hasn't fully arrived. The sinker is getting slugged .671, and 11 of his 15 homers allowed have gone to right-handed bats.
Machado is the righty we'll send to collect, and I'll give you the case in full sunlight: the season average is an ugly .214 and his lefty-mashing reputation is running ahead of his 2026 split — that's the honest half. The other half: 24 homers, a swing built for exactly the elevated-sinker mistakes Lodolo has been serving righties all year, a ballpark-plus-weather combo that adds double-digit percentage help, and — the real headline — the widest verified price gap on tonight's board: Kalshi's +351 against a best book of +297. That's 54 points of pure margin on a bet the books and the exchange agree is live. He also owes this tally a quarter-unit from the 25th. Collections season is open.
No. 2 — Jordan Walker: 1+ HR (22¢, Effective +331) — Cardinals @ Dodgers
The West Coast nightcap, for those keeping shelf life in mind — 10:10 ET, so this number should hold while you're reading. Eric Lauer has quietly been the most homer-prone lefty still holding a rotation job: 24 homers allowed in 105.1 innings — 2.1 per nine — with a FIP pushing SIX (5.80) while his Dodgers ERA plays make-believe. The four-seamer he throws 42% of the time is getting slugged .553 by expected numbers, and 12 of the homers he's allowed have gone to right-handed bats. Tonight he gets Dodger Stadium at a 110 homer factor with the flags blowing out at 9 mph — a genuinely rude combination for a fastball that flat.
Walker has turned into exactly the bat you send after that pitch: 27 homers with a 13.5% barrel rate — top 10 in all of baseball — and a .542 slug with 8 bombs against lefties. He's even homered off Lauer before, and 17 of his 27 have come on the road. Full disclosure, always: he's 3-for-16 over his last five. And a rare pricing confession for this column — tonight the best number is NOT on the exchange: bet365 is hanging +350, which fractionally beats Kalshi's +331 (FanDuel's +300 trails both). I bet the +350, and that's the number the tally will track on this one, because we hunt the best price wherever it lives — usually that's Kalshi, tonight it's the book. Don't accept less than +331 anywhere.
No. 1 — Jackson Chourio: 1+ HR (22¢, Effective +331) — Brewers @ Cubs
There's the loop from the top of the page, closed: the bat that already paid us once this week is Chourio — our +456 cash from the 27th — and tonight he walks into Wrigley with the same wind at his back. Matthew Boyd's 8-3 record and 3.99 ERA make a lovely baseball card, but the expected ERA underneath says 4.97 — a full run of unpaid bills — and the itemized receipts are ugly: 15 homers allowed with a staggering 14 of them to right-handed bats, a homer surrendered in each of his last FIVE starts, a strikeout rate that's quietly slipped to 19%, and a four-seamer he throws 45% of the time getting slugged at a .544 expected clip. The flags will be pointing out again (8-11 mph, same forecast that fed us Monday) in the building where NINE balls just left in one evening. Wrigley giveth in both directions.
Chourio is the exact shape of righty this spot wants: 20 homers, a 13.1% barrel rate, 47.9% hard-hit, and a .298/.496 line with an .875 OPS against lefties, hitting leadoff so he gets a crack at Boyd's first-inning fastball before the book even opens. The price is Kalshi-best — +331 over theScore's +325 and FanDuel's +310 — a nose, not a canyon, but the right side of the line is the right side of the line. Fine print: there's a 20% storm number floating around Chicago, so give the radar its customary glance. (Portfolio note: I also grabbed his teammate William Contreras at +525 earlier today — that number has since vanished, with books topping out around +425 and Kalshi at +398, so he stays a side dish rather than a card play. If the catcher outhomers the card, you're allowed to laugh.)
The Fee Math (Quick Version)
Newcomers: Kalshi's taker fee runs about 7% × price × (1 − price) — roughly a penny at these levels — so everything above is quoted post-fee, directly comparable to any book. The countdown, receipts attached:
- No. 3, Manny Machado At 21¢ → +351 effective (best book: +297 — Kalshi by 54, the widest gap on the board)
- No. 2, Jordan Walker → +350 at bet365 (fractionally past Kalshi's 22¢/+331 — the tally tracks the +350 we bet)
- No. 1, Jackson Chourio At 22¢ → +331 effective (theScore +325, FanDuel +310 — Kalshi by a nose)
And the part the skimmers always miss, so lean in: if tonight's three-piece somehow sweeps, that's +2.58 units on 0.75 risked and a tally sitting at +12.64. If all three brick, we lose three-quarters of a unit and shake it off with coffee. That asymmetry — not any one pick — is the entire business model.
- LINDY'S LONG BALLS: Free Bombs To Start The Week \u2014 Coors Does
- LINDY'S LONG BALLS: Four Straight And Feeling Dangerous \u2014 Double-Dipping
- LINDY'S LONG BALLS: Back In Green Ink \u2014 Kalshi Home Run Picks Today
- LINDY'S LONG BALLS: Group Hug, Then Two Swings \u2014 Georgia Heat
- Kalshi Home Run Picks Today: Harper, Tatis Jr. (Aug 25)
Final Thoughts
A collections agent in a Cincinnati sauna against a lefty whose expected ERA says the worst is still coming, a jet stream in Chavez Ravine aimed at baseball's most homer-prone fastball, and a proven earner back at a wind-blown Wrigley where the bills come due in the bleachers.
The sermon, on doubling day of all days: every one of these three is still MORE likely to miss than hit — at these prices the market says they fail roughly three times out of four, and the market is not lying. The tally didn't double because we won every night. It doubled because 40 straight rows risked the same boring quarter unit, and the wins were allowed to be bigger than the losses. That math doesn't care what month it is.
I'll keep putting my best out there for you every single day. You keep the units small, the receipts public, and the season long.
— Lindy
