The rookie did it AGAIN. The Wrigley wind took Stewart for a ride in the seventh — his 31st of the year, a homer in THREE straight games — and our 21-cent ticket at +351 cashed in a 7-5 Reds win. And honestly, the deeper into that game it went, the better we looked: the Cubs bullpen was a nifty matchup for Stewart in its own right, and Trent Thornton found that out the hard way. Two straight days the wind and the rookie have teamed up to pay this column.
Now the other half, and I need you to feel this one with me: Alonso went 1-for-2 with a walk in an Orioles WIN, a game where Baltimore hit three homers off the exact pitcher we targeted... and Gunnar Henderson hit two of them. Four-for-four, five RBI, both bombs off Springs. We cased the right house and put the wrong guy on lookout. That one stings like stepping on a LEGO at 2 a.m. — silent, personal, completely self-inflicted.
| Date | Play | Price | Effective | Result | Risked | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/17 | Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 16¢ | +490 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.23u |
| 8/17 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 21¢ | +351 | ✅ | 0.25u | +0.88u |
| 8/17 | Mookie Betts (LAD) | 15¢ | +529 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/18 | Jackson Merrill (SD) | 13¢ | +625 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/18 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 18¢ | +425 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.06u |
| 8/18 | Mike Trout (LAA) | 19¢ | +398 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/18 | Jo Adell (CLE) | 14¢ | +573 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.43u |
| 8/18 | Corbin Carroll (AZ) | 9¢ | +944 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/19 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 14¢ | +573 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/19 | Bryce Harper (PHI) | 19¢ | +398 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/19 | Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 15¢ | +529 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/20 | Pete Alonso (BAL) | 21¢ | +351 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/20 | Zach Neto (LAA) | 17¢ | +456 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.14u |
| 8/21 | Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 16¢ | +490 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/21 | Julio Rodríguez (SEA) | 17¢ | +456 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/21 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 21¢ | +351 | ✅ | 0.25u | +0.88u |
| 8/22 | Corbin Carroll (AZ) | 16¢ | +490 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/22 | Jo Adell (CLE) | 19¢ | +398 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.00u |
| 8/23 | Jo Adell (CLE) | 23¢ | +313 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/23 | Jackson Merrill (SD) | 18¢ | +425 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.06u |
| 8/23 | Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) | 13¢ | +625 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/24 | Junior Caminero (TB) | 20¢ | +373 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/24 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 21¢ | +351 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/24 | Byron Buxton (MIN) | 28¢ | +257 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/25 | Bryce Harper (PHI) | 16¢ | +490 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/25 | Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 15¢ | +529 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/25 | Manny Machado (SD) | 13¢ | +625 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/26 | Matt Olson (ATL) | 18¢ | +425 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.06u |
| 8/26 | Pete Alonso (BAL) | 18¢ | +425 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.06u |
| 8/27 | Jac Caglianone (KC) | 19¢ | +398 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.00u |
| 8/27 | Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 17¢ | +456 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.14u |
| 8/28 | Matt Olson (ATL) | 26¢ | +266 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/28 | Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 14¢ | +574 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/28 | Zach Neto (LAA) | 17¢ | +456 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/29 | Alex Bregman (CHC) | 13¢ | +625 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.56u |
| 8/29 | Jackson Merrill (SD) | 12¢ | +685 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/30 | Sal Stewart (CIN) | 21¢ | +351 | ✅ | 0.25u | +0.88u |
| 8/30 | Pete Alonso (BAL) | 27¢ | +252 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| TOTAL | 14-for-38 | 9.50u | +9.38u (99% ROI) |
Fourteen cashes in 38 swings, plus 9.38 units, and the account is one good night from officially doubling everything it has ever risked. Two weeks of posting every card face-up, wins and Ls alike, and we're a rounding error from 10 units of profit on quarter-unit sprinkles. So tonight, no paywall, no teasing: two more, free, for the people. Let's have some fun.
(Portfolio note before we start: yes, I went back to the Stewart well for tonight too — grabbed +529 on Kalshi late last night before the market woke up and nuked the price. That number is gone, so he's a side dish in my book and not a column play. If your register still shows north of +450 on him, you know what I know.)
Gunnar Henderson: 1+ HR (19¢, Effective +398) — Orioles @ Rockies
You know what? Fine. FINE. If Gunnar insists on hitting the homers we order for other people, we'll just order them for Gunnar — preferably at elevation. Tonight he takes that Sunday swing to Coors Field, the No. 1 homer park in baseball at a comical 147 factor, where the man on the mound is Tanner Gordon and the numbers read like a menu. Gordon has surrendered 17 homers in 83.2 innings — 1.83 per nine — with a 9.7% barrel rate allowed and an average exit velocity against that ranks near the bottom of the league. The four-seamer he throws 43.5% of the time is getting slugged .527, the curveball .808, and left-handed bats have hit him to a .571 slug — including a preposterous 3.25 HR/9 to lefties at Coors specifically. Enter the lefty who just went 4-for-4 with two bombs and five RBI.
The full disclosure, because the tally saw what you saw: Gunnar's having a down year — .217 with 22 homers, and he already cost us a quarter-unit back on the 19th. I'm not paying for Sunday's fireworks; I'm paying for the collision — the sport's friendliest yard, a fastball that gets punished, the exact platoon side Gordon can't survive at altitude, and a 19-cent ticket. Two honest asterisks: Gordon's last start was legitimately good (seven innings, one run against Washington), and there's rain in the Denver forecast tonight — Coors games almost always get played, but give the radar a look before lock. DraftKings has Gunnar +357; Kalshi's +398 beats the best book by 41 points.
Seiya Suzuki: 1+ HR (20¢, Effective +373) — Brewers @ Cubs
Back to the ATM. This column has been treated better by Wrigley Field than by some of my actual relatives — Bregman rode the wind here Saturday, Stewart cashed here Sunday, and PCA paid us three separate times before that — so when the building offers another clean platoon edge, we take it. Tonight's offering: Milwaukee sends out lefty Kyle Harrison, whose 10-3 record and 2.79 ERA are doing a LOT of posing for the cameras. Away from Milwaukee he's carrying a 5.04 road ERA — more than triple his home number — and he's already been tagged for 14 homers this season, including two separate three-homer games (June 8 and Aug. 11). Good pitcher at home. Piñata on the road. Tonight he's on the road.
Suzuki is the right bat for the job because lefties bring out his loudest swing: .237/.348/.487 with 10 homers in 152 at-bats against southpaws this season — a 250-point gap between average and slug, which is the shape of a hitter who's either walking back to the dugout or into a curtain call. He took Kevin Gausman deep here Saturday for No. 23, and the flags will be gently on his side again — south-southwest at 5-10 with gusts to 15, softer than the weekend gales but pointed the right way. (And yes, PCA sits in the same lineup with 38 bombs — but he's 24¢ chalk AND he bats lefty into Harrison. Wrong side, wrong price.) BetMGM has Suzuki +310; Kalshi's +373 beats the best book by 63 points.
The Fee Math (Quick Version)
New here? Kalshi charges takers roughly 7% × price × (1 − price) — about a penny a contract at these levels — so the effective odds above are post-fee, apples-to-apples with any book. Tonight:
- Gunnar Henderson At 19¢ → +398 effective (best book: +357 DraftKings — Kalshi by 41)
- Seiya Suzuki At 20¢ → +373 effective (best book: +310 BetMGM — Kalshi by 63)
Early birds keep the closing-line value, and the exchange never sends anyone to the principal's office for winning. Carry on.
- LINDY'S LONG BALLS: Four Straight And Feeling Dangerous \u2014 Double-Dipping
- LINDY'S LONG BALLS: Back In Green Ink \u2014 Kalshi Home Run Picks Today
- LINDY'S LONG BALLS: Group Hug, Then Two Swings \u2014 Georgia Heat
- Kalshi Home Run Picks Today: Harper, Tatis Jr. (Aug 25)
- LINDY'S LONG BALLS: The Ledger Doesn't Lie \u2014 A Comerica Surprise
Final Thoughts
A red-hot lefty walking into the sport's biggest launching pad against a fastball that gets barreled, and a righty masher getting a road-vulnerable southpaw in the building that has personally funded this column's heater.
The sermon stays the same because the math stays the same: at 19 and 20 cents, both of these are UNDERDOGS to connect tonight — that's not pessimism, that's literally what the price says, and pretending otherwise is how bankrolls die young. The tally above is sitting a whisker from 10 units of profit for one reason: 38 straight quarter-unit stakes, no hero sizing, no revenge betting, no exceptions. Keep it that way and the fun stays fun.
I'll keep putting my best out there for you every single day — free bombs and all. Manage the bankroll like the season's long, because it is.
— Lindy
