Eric Lindquist
Betting Analyst, OddsShopper
Eric Lindquist covers golf, MLB, and the prediction markets for OddsShopper and Stokastic, pairing line-by-line analysis with the numbers behind every play. He hosts Long Balls and brings a bettor-first read to every board he writes up.
Articles by Eric Lindquist
Baseball's Best Player Hit The IL And The Title Board Barely Blinked
Excerpt: The best hitter alive went on the injured list this morning, the championship favorite gave back less than two cents, and the actual mistake is sitting one market over with a seventh of the volume.
Five Snaps, Ten Cents: The Sam Darnold Ripple Effect On Kalshi's NFC Board
Excerpt: One quarterback's hip moved four different boards in 90 minutes — and as of this morning, only three of them have come all the way back.
Lindy's Long Balls: One Bullet, The Loudest Bat Meets A Comeback Fastball
The wallet won Wednesday even though the column slept, and tonight there's exactly one swing worth the ink: the loudest raw contact on the South Side against a 98-mph fastball that keeps leaving with strangers. One name, buried below, and the full card at the bottom.
Patriots AFC East Odds: The Hour New England Traded As The Favorite
For about an hour on Wednesday night, New England traded as the AFC East favorite, at a price you could see. Then an ankle rolled, three throws went the wrong way, and the price went with them.
Seahawks NFC West Odds: Your Ticket Is Secretly A 49ers Bet Tonight
Nobody writes the article about what to do after you have already made the bet. Your Seattle division ticket has six exits on it right now, and one of them is quietly a wager on the 49ers in Melbourne tonight.
Underdog NFL Picks Today: 49ers-Rams, Thursday, September 10
Two Underdog Fantasy plays for 49ers-Rams on Thursday, September 10: Myles Garrett Higher 0.75 sacks and De'Zhaun Stribling Higher 33.5 receiving yards, plus the current Underdog offer for new users with code OS1.
Underdog NFL Picks Today: Patriots-Seahawks, Wednesday, September 9
Two Underdog Fantasy plays for Patriots-Seahawks on Wednesday, September 9: Rhamondre Stevenson Lower 15 rushing attempts and Jadarian Price Higher 9.75 fantasy points, plus the current Underdog offer for new users with code OS1.
Lindy's Long Balls: 107 In The Shade, A Comeback Arm Walks Into The Furnace
It's 107 in the shade in Kansas City, a comeback arm walks straight into the furnace, and the tally rides three tickets bought before the books woke up all the way. Two swings in the same oven, one bet on a bat the market keeps underpricing, and the full card at the bottom.
Lindy's Long Balls: The Miracle Cashed, Now We Rob The Sleeping Board
The cheap miracle CASHED, the biggest single ticket in tally history, and now the column celebrates the only way it knows how: robbing the overnight board while the books are still asleep. Two Labor Day Kalshi home run plays inside, card at the bottom.
Lindy's Long Balls: A Bandbox Barrel, A Bill Collector And A Cheap Miracle
Back on the Sabbath with a three-swing day-slate special: Milwaukee's hottest barrel in the National League's bounciest park, a bill collector on Broad Street, and a 6-cent switch-hitter the exchange pays better than every book on the board.
Lindy's Long Balls: The KC Furnace, A Coors Call And A Short-Porch Special
Two quiet nights won't change the math. Tonight the column bets a Kansas City heat warning, a collection call at altitude, and a short-porch special aimed at the friendliest 315 feet in baseball. Three Kalshi home run plays are inside the stories, and the full card sits at the bottom.
LINDY'S LONG BALLS: The Show Got There First — Soup-Thick Air At Camden
The show cashed a +650 before the column could even print it, the tally takes its medicine, and tonight we're betting soup-thick air in Baltimore and pure lift under a roof out west.
Lindy's Long Balls: Early Bird At Fenway, Overdue Bill Under The Dome
The thesis was right, the collector was wrong, and the tally still climbed. Tonight's two Kalshi home run plays are hiding inside the stories, and the full card with prices and fee math sits at the bottom of the page.
Lindy's MLB Picks: Wednesday, September 2 Leans, Likes & Locks
Lindy's MLB picks for Wednesday, September 2: three moneylines from the home run guy, two totals run back from Tuesday, and five official plays in all.
LINDY'S LONG BALLS: The Account Has Officially DOUBLED
The account officially doubles, a robbery gets memorialized in the notes, and tonight's three-piece counts DOWN to the one bet I'd keep if you took the other two away — a Cincinnati sauna, a Chavez Ravine jet stream, and a Wrigley encore.
LINDY'S LONG BALLS: Free Bombs To Start The Week — Coors Does
The tally knocks on the door of double digits, Coors Field does what Coors Field does, and the Friendly Confines keep printing — two free ones to start the week.
Lindy's Heisman Watch 2026, Week 1: Three Bets, No Favorite Yet
The Heisman market opens the season without a real favorite, so this page holds a small portfolio instead of a pick: two quarterbacks, one receiver, half a unit, and a schedule that marches them through the board's biggest names.
Senate Control 2026 Odds: The Four Seats That Decide It
Democrats need four seats to take the Senate. Kalshi's own race boards put them at 3.67, and the two seats that close the gap belong to independents.
Lindy's Long Balls: The Wind Already Paid Once, Back
The Wrigley wind cashed our ticket in the very first inning Saturday. Tonight we run it back with the flags still pointing at the bleachers, plus an afternoon stop in Sacramento where the slate's most generous lefty is serving.
Heisman Dark Horses 2026: My Case For Josh Hoover And Gunner Stockton
A year after the trophy went to a name the market opened the season ignoring, two mid-board prices look live again: the quarterback who just inherited the national champions' huddle and the returning starter on a top-three team.
Lindy's Long Balls: The Flags Point At The Bleachers, Plus A Dome Tax
The heater takes a night off, the ledger takes its medicine in public — and the column answers with a flag pointing at the Wrigley bleachers and a strike-thrower under the Trop roof.
Crypto 2026 Odds: Can Any Of These Ten Finish The Year Green?
Every coin on Kalshi's 2026 return board opened the year above where it trades now. We asked seven AI models to score all ten of them without showing any of them the prices.
How To Play (And Not Get Torched) On Prediction Markets
Prediction markets look like a stock terminal and settle like a contract. The three habits that keep new traders whole, plus a tour of the Core Four venues.
LINDY'S LONG BALLS: Four Straight And Feeling Dangerous — Double-Dipping
Four straight tickets cashed and the tracker at new highs — tonight we double-dip an old friend in Atlanta, and a rookie arm in Anaheim gets a bill he can't afford.
Lindy Vs. The Machine, Edition Four: A Lottery Ticket
The Chiefs and Bills gave the panel and me our first real head-to-head last edition. Today's a lighter touch: a two-cent World Series ticket the machine likes almost twice as much as the market does, sized like the flier it is.
Minnesota Vikings 2026 Odds: How Will My Vikings Fare?
A Vikings fan reads every Kalshi market on his own team: Kyler Murray under center, J.J. McCarthy on the clock, Kevin O'Connell's Coach of the Year price, and the division that stopped being easy. The prices, the eight-model panel's numbers, and the markets a bullish fan would attack.
Novig Odds Display
Novig replaced -150 with 60%. The number says more than the moneyline did: here is how to read it, the three mistakes bettors make on day one, and the ten-second matchup check.
Sam Darnold MVP Odds: Is The Case Over After The Hip Injury?
Sam Darnold's MVP odds on Kalshi went from 3 cents to a 1-cent ask with no bid after a first-drive hip injury, and Eric Lindquist prices what a clean MRI would and wouldn't reopen.
UFC Heavyweight Title Odds: A Champion Who Hasn't Defended
Kalshi's board still makes Tom Aspinall the favourite to keep the UFC heavyweight belt, but the bid fell from 66¢ to 35¢ in the day and a half after Dana White said the division 'will just keep rolling.' The contract terms say Ciryl Gane's interim title counts for nothing.
How To Live Bet Golf On Kalshi: 5 Rules For A 30-Man Week
How to live bet golf on Kalshi: why a 30-man Tour Championship warps top-10 and top-20 prices, how ties and withdrawals settle, and 5 rules for in-play golf trading.
How To Bet NFL Futures On Kalshi (And Get Paid To Wait)
How to bet NFL futures on Kalshi: trade Super Bowl and win total markets in cents, sell or hedge a position anytime, and earn interest while you hold.
LINDY'S LONG BALLS: Back In Green Ink — Kalshi Home Run Picks Today
Two swings, two trots, green ink everywhere — and tonight the column visits a roof in Toronto and a sweeper on life support in Queens.
Chiefs Win Total Odds: Lindy Vs. The Machine On 11+ Wins
The Stokastic AI panel puts 17% on the Chiefs winning 11+ NFL games; Kalshi trades it at 43-46 cents. Eric Lindquist buys the bounce-back, takes No on Bills 12+, and posts the full unit ledger.
Novig Odds Format Change: Why Your Moneyline Is Now A Percentage
Novig now shows a percentage where the moneyline used to be. Here is why the switch happened, the full translation table, and why nothing about your edge changed.
Polymarket Player Props
Polymarket player props do not void like sportsbook bets, but a scratch does not pay $0 either: a full sit-out settles at the last fair market price, while a one-snap exit settles on the box score. The real settlement rules, the fee math, and the injury routine, explained.
Positive EV Betting Strategy: Top-Down Vs. Bottom-Up Edges
Every positive EV betting strategy answers one question: who supplies the true probability, the market or you? Here is how to run both, and when each wins.
Upcoming IPOs 2026: Anthropic Filed. That Doesn't Count Yet.
Kalshi lists 29 companies on one question: who confirms an IPO before January. Two already have. Anthropic, Oura, Discord and OpenAI are the live ones, and the contract does not pay on an announcement.
How Low Will Bitcoin Get In August? The Floor It Hit Twice
Kalshi's August floor ladder has eight rungs and not one of them has been reached. Our eight-model panel agreed on the price and then spent a full revision round arguing about what the contract actually measures, which turned out to be the real question.
Cash Out Vs Hedging On Kalshi: One Ticket, Two Exits (2026)
The cash-out button is one take-it-or-leave-it quote priced against you. A Kalshi hedge fills at a posted bid you can see, and the live MLB board shows that posted-bid mechanism in public every night. Eric Lindquist walks one ticket through both exits and counts what each hands back.
LINDY'S LONG BALLS: Group Hug, Then Two Swings — Georgia Heat
The skid gets graded in public, the group hug gets administered — and then two swings: the hottest bat in Georgia, and a scorching slugger with unfinished business against our ledger.
World Series Odds: Lindy Vs. The Machine
The Rays own the AL's best record and cost 7.7 cents. The Phillies run October's scariest rotation and cost 5.3. Eric Lindquist buys both — and logs the bets against the Stokastic AI panel on the series tally.
S&P 500 Positive In 2026 Odds: The Only Way It Finishes Red
Kalshi's S&P 500 contract settles on last year's exact closing level, so the whole year comes down to one question: what would have to happen between now and December?
How To Play On Polymarket: 5 Ways It Differs From Kalshi
Playing on Polymarket is simple: buy Yes or No, priced in cents, paid at $1. Playing it well means knowing the five places its rules quietly split from Kalshi, starting with the prop rule that grades your contract even when the player never takes the field.
Kalshi Trading Strategy: 5 Moves Sharps Use To Beat The Vig
Kalshi trading strategy for sharps: read cents as probabilities, pay less than sportsbook vig mid-board, and sell winning positions before settlement.
Kalshi Home Run Picks Today: Harper, Tatis Jr. (Aug 25)
Lindy's Long Balls for Aug. 25: a pitch-mix mismatch for Bryce Harper in Seattle, and a Padres double-dip against Paul Skenes and a worn-out Pirates bullpen.
NFC South Odds 2026: The 6-11 Team Is Priced Second
New Orleans lost 11 games last season and sits second on Kalshi's NFC South board, ahead of the team that actually won the division. Eight AI models scored all four clubs without seeing a single price, and they push back on the board in both directions.
PrizePicks Correlation FAQ: The 5 Questions That Matter
Eric Lindquist answers the five questions that matter about correlating PrizePicks cards: the parlay math, the builds that stack together, and the payout double-check that protects your multiplier.
GameStop eBay Odds: Kalshi Traders Keep Fading Ryan Cohen
GameStop spent 4.35 billion dollars buying eBay stock, and Ryan Cohen told the Financial Times he thinks about owning the rest all day. eBay's own proxy statement sets the schedule.
How Does Kalshi Work? Fees, Odds Conversion & 5 Rookie Mistakes
How does Kalshi work? Account setup, maker vs taker fees, turning cents into sportsbook odds, and the five most common mistakes new traders make.
LINDY'S LONG BALLS: The Ledger Doesn't Lie — A Comerica Surprise
The full week-plus ledger, printed in public — then a Comerica quirk nobody saw coming, a Vegas rule at Chase Field, and the priciest ticket this column has ever bought.
Lindy Vs. The Machine: Attacking The Saints Win Total On Kalshi
The Stokastic AI panel projects the Saints at 6-6.5 wins and fades New Orleans 9+ on Kalshi. Eric Lindquist takes the other side, rung by rung, with the live ladder.
PrizePicks Limits: How I Still Win MLB Entries At A Card
Eric Lindquist on playing PrizePicks after being limited to $5 a card: the three card types still worth building, correlated MLB builds at Sutter Health Park, and the reboot rule that quietly favors overs.
LINDY'S LONG BALLS: Thin Air On Repeat, A Flat Fastball Problem
Back to the thin air with a bat that refuses to cool, a flat fastball meeting the wrong lefty at Petco, and a 100-year-old ballpark in Williamsport hosting a very modern mismatch.
Kalshi Home Run Picks Today: Carroll +490 And Adell +398 In Lindy's Long
Lindy's Long Balls for Saturday, Aug. 22: a late-window-only card. Corbin Carroll against a righty who leaks power to lefties, and Jo Adell at Coors Field, both priced better on Kalshi than the widely available book field on his scan.
How To Bet On 2026 Senate Elections: Kalshi Odds
How to bet on 2026 Senate elections on Kalshi, step by step: what a 54¢ price means, the four live Senate markets, real race prices, and your first trade.
Jon Ossoff Is An Absolute Lock. Or Is He?: Kalshi Odds
Prices as of Friday, August 21, 2026. Markets move — and the thin ones move on very little. Check the live number before you act on anything here.
LINDY'S LONG BALLS: Breaking My Own Heart On The South Side
A heartbreaker on the South Side, a fading lefty's strikeout problem, and a fourth trip to the hottest well in baseball — Friday's three-piece caps a beautiful week.
NFC East Odds 2026: Kalshi's Co-Favorite Went 7-9-1
Kalshi's NFC East board prices a 7-9-1 Dallas team within four cents of the reigning champion, and prices Washington exactly the same as a club that lost 13 games. Eight AI models scored all four teams without seeing a single price, and they argue with the board in both directions.
Best Prediction Market Sites 2026: I Scored My Five Favorites
I scored my five favorite prediction market sites, Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, ProphetX, and Underdog Predict, on state access, sports coverage, fees, and liquidity.
LINDY'S LONG BALLS: A Two-Piece Thursday: Kalshi Odds
Wednesday humbled us. The Kalshi card went 0-for-3: the four-peat died quietly in a 3-0 shutout where NOBODY homered (PCA's 14-cent ticket at +573 never had a.
Kalshi Home Run Picks Today: Crow-Armstrong, Harper (Aug 19)
Lindy's Kalshi home run picks for Wednesday, Aug. 19: Pete Crow-Armstrong's four-peat bid at Wrigley, Bryce Harper in Philly, Gunnar Henderson at Camden.
NFL Coach Of The Year Odds: Nobody Is Buying Andy Reid
Kansas City outscored its opponents and finished 6-11. Kalshi charges two and a half cents on Andy Reid; the eight-model panel, which never saw a price, puts him at 8.7 percent.
LINDY'S LONG BALLS: Kauffman's Back, Eating Crow (In A Good Way), And A Dodger At Altitude (Aug. 17)
You know the drill — and you also know we tell the truth here, so: Friday's Kalshi card went 0-for-3. The Polar Bear doubled instead of dingered, the Stock tip.
Three Guys Not Named Scottie: The Kalshi Edge At Bellerive
Look, I'm not going to insult you by pretending I know how to beat Scottie Scheffler. He just won the St. Jude by EIGHT. He's the defending BMW champ.
NFC West Odds 2026: The Champion Is Priced Second
NFC West odds on Kalshi after Week 1: Rams 55.5 cents, champion Seahawks 28.5, 49ers 20.5, Cardinals under a penny. Seattle lost Sam Darnold five snaps into the opener and the Rams gained 7.5 cents before playing a down.
LINDY'S LONG BALLS: A Polar Bear At The Trop, A Stock Tip In Queens, And Trout Runs It Back (Aug. 14)
A polar bear at the Trop, a stock tip in Queens, and Mike Trout running it back — Lindy's three Kalshi home run picks at effective +398, +425 and +456 for Friday's slate.
AFC North Odds: The Right Favorite At The Wrong Price
AFC North odds on Kalshi put Baltimore first at 47.5 cents after a week of heavy trading. Six AI models scored the division blind, all six agreed on the Ravens, and all six priced them lower.
Kalshi Home Run Picks Today: Lindy's Long Balls For Aug. 12 — Three Bats At 13 Cents
Kalshi home run picks for Wednesday, Aug. 12: Lindy's Long Balls has Cole Young, Héctor Rodríguez and Ozzie Albies all at 13 cents.
AI Super Bowl Predictions 2027: Eight Models Won't Give Up On New England
We asked eight AI models to price all 32 teams for Super Bowl LXI without showing them a single market price. They landed on the Rams too, then put New England more than two and a half times higher than the board does.
Lindy's AL Champion Read: Yankees Are Rightful Favorites, But The Best Value Is In Their Own Division
Lindy's AL Champion read on the Kalshi MLB market: Yankees fair at 29 cents, but the real value is YES on the Rays and Red Sox in the AL East.
Offensive Rookie Of The Year Odds: Mendoza Sits, Love Is 50-50
Kalshi's Offensive Rookie of the Year board is four cents wide at the top, and both headline names got worse news this week: the No. 1 pick is a backup and the favorite is a coin flip for Week 1. The eight-model panel's August read, now graded against its own checkpoints.
Fed Rate Cut Odds: A Hike Is Priced Higher At Every Meeting
Kalshi's contract on any 2026 Fed cut has fallen from 38 cents in June to 12.5 bid. At all three remaining meetings, traders price a hike above a cut.
US Open 2026 Men's Odds: 7 Top-16 Seeds Out, Alcaraz Nears Half The Board
Seven of the top 16 seeds are out of the US Open before the third round is finished. Kalshi has moved Carlos Alcaraz from a quarter of the men's title board toward half of it, and the seven-model panel's August read is graded here line by line.
Bitcoin 100K Odds: Kalshi's Ladder Says Not This Year, Plus The 50K Race
Bitcoin trades near $77,700 and Kalshi runs two boards on six figures: a month-by-month ladder for when it gets there, and a race market on whether $50,000 prints first. Eight AI models priced the ladder price-blind; seven priced the race.
Lindy's MLB Picks 6/23: Altuve HR Banger, Priced +575
Lindy's MLB picks for Tuesday, June 23: the Jose Altuve home run banger at +575 vs. Shane Bieber, plus his Mariners and Cardinals moneyline plays.
