Updated September 14, 2026 · 16 min read · by Eric Lindquist
Three weeks ago this page argued that Kalshi's NFC East board was hardest to defend in its middle, where a 7-9-1 Dallas team traded three and a half cents behind the reigning division champion and Washington traded at exactly the same price as a club that had lost 13 games. The division has now played two football games. Both of those middle prices are gone.
On Sunday the New York Giants beat Dallas 28-20 at MetLife Stadium, and Philadelphia held off Washington 24-22 at Lincoln Financial Field on a blocked extra point and a stopped two-point conversion. Three and a half hours before the first kickoff, Kalshi had Dallas at 35 cents and the Giants at 12.5. By Monday midday it had the Giants at 22.5 and Dallas at 20.5. Call that what it is: a 24.5-cent swing between two teams that have played each other exactly once, in the first week of a seventeen-game season.
So: can one Sunday really be worth that much? Two things say it is not quite what it looks like. The first is on Kalshi's own trade tape, where the bulk of Dallas's fall happened inside a single second — and then partly undid itself. The second is a market most people never open: the playoff board trading right beside this one, on the same exchange, on the same four teams, which disagrees with it in a very specific way.
The Quick Answer
After Week 1, Kalshi's NFC East board reads Philadelphia 51.5 cents, New York Giants 22.5, Dallas 20.5 and Washington 9.5 — the Eagles above 50 cents and the Giants past Dallas after a 24.5-cent swing between those two in a single night. Our eight-model panel, which scored this division in August without seeing a single price, has not been re-run and is not being re-run: its August numbers were Philadelphia 37 percent, Dallas 31, Washington 20 and the Giants 12, and they get graded exactly as they were written. One week in, the panel is one-for-four on direction. The one it got right is the one that moved the most — and most of that move went through in one second, on one order, at a price the market did not keep.
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Prices on this page were read from Kalshi at 12:50 p.m. ET on Monday, September 14, 2026, roughly 13 hours after the Sunday night final, and they refresh as the story moves; the dated stamp on the market card below carries the evidence. The panel column is stamped August 21 and stays stamped August 21.
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The Board
A Yes contract pays one dollar if that team wins the NFC East, so 20.5 cents reads as roughly a 20.5 percent chance. Three price columns, because the difference between them turns out to matter: "Sept 14" is Monday midday, "Pre-kick" is the mid the contract carried at 12:51 p.m. ET Sunday with both games still to play, and "Aug 21" is the mid this page published three weeks ago. The last column is the blended August estimate from eight independent models that never saw a price.
| Team | Week 1 | Sept 14 | Pre-kick | Aug 21 | One-Sunday move | Panel (Aug 21) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | won 24-22 vs WSH | 51.5¢ | 42¢ | 39.5¢ | +9.5 | 37% |
| New York Giants | won 28-20 vs DAL | 22.5¢ | 12.5¢ | 14.5¢ | +10.0 | 12% |
| Dallas Cowboys | lost 20-28 at NYG | 20.5¢ | 35¢ | 36¢ | −14.5 | 31% |
| Washington Commanders | lost 22-24 at PHI | 9.5¢ | 11.5¢ | 14.5¢ | −2.0 | 20% |
The row that changes depending on which column you read it against is the bottom one. Against the August price Washington is down five cents, and it would be easy to write that as a verdict on Sunday. Against the price it carried three and a half hours before kickoff it is down two. The board had been quietly marking Washington down for three weeks before a snap was played, and the game itself took only two more cents — from a team that lost by two points on the road to the defending division champion with its quarterback healthy and playing the whole way. In August this page named the one thing that would decide the Commanders' price: "The entire Washington case is one player's availability." Jayden Daniels was available. The price moved anyway, and mostly before he took a snap.
The four mid prices now sum to 104 cents rather than 100, against 104.5 in August. That four cents is not the quoted spread, which is a single cent on all four contracts. It is the market maker's cushion across the whole board: buy all four Yes contracts at the ask and you pay 106 for a dollar, sell all four at the bid and you collect 102. The board repriced violently and that cushion barely moved, which says the maker reset all four quotes together rather than one contract getting picked off.
One Second, 9,796 Contracts
One night took 14 and a half cents out of Dallas. The trade tape says most of that happened in a single second.
At 9:49:56 p.m. ET, 99 seconds after Jaxson Dart found Isaiah Likely for the touchdown that put New York up 14-7 with 20 seconds left in the half, a single sweep hit Kalshi's Dallas contract. Thirty-two fills, all stamped the same second, all on the same side: somebody selling Dallas. The sweep started at 34 cents and walked the book all the way down to 18, and its single largest fill, 8,739 contracts, went off at that bottom tick. For scale, the Dallas contract traded 20,658 contracts across the entire 24 hours ending with our Monday pull. Just under half of that went through in that one second.
Then it bounced. Seventy-eight seconds later somebody bought nine contracts back at 32, and by 10:30 p.m. Dallas was trading 32 and 33 again. The sweep was a liquidity event, not a re-rating.
The re-rating came at the end. At 11:21:01 p.m., as the game was being put away, a second sweep took Dallas from 23 down to 12 — smaller, about 800 contracts, with the heaviest fill at 14. This time the bounce was shallow: buyers stepped in on the bid at 17 within 90 seconds and nudged it to 19 by 11:24. When we pulled the whole board at 11:38 p.m., minutes after the final whistle, it read Philadelphia 47.5, the Giants 23, Dallas 19.5 and Washington 6.5.
The other side of the trade overshot too, in the opposite direction. The Giants opened Sunday night at 12 and 13 cents and printed 38 three times, once at 10:27 p.m. holding a 21-7 lead and twice more after midnight with the game already over, without holding it on any of them. From kickoff to 2 a.m., 9,076 Giants contracts changed hands between 13 cents and 38. That is less than the 9,796 that went through the Dallas contract in that single second, which is the tidiest way to say what actually happened on this board Sunday night: the biggest thing that hit it was not anyone buying the Giants. It was one order selling Dallas.
So the sequence is this. Dallas printed as low as 18 cents before halftime and as low as 12 cents at the death, the Giants printed as high as 38, and none of those is where either closed out the weekend. Dallas is at 20.5 and the Giants at 22.5. What the next 13 hours did was tidy, not dramatic: Philadelphia added four more cents, Washington recovered three, Dallas added one back and the Giants gave back half of one. The Giants' quote right after the game was 21 bid, 25 offered, four cents wide; by midday Monday it was 22 bid, 23 offered.
That shape matters for reading the page. The prices here are not a Monday-morning narrative reacting to a Sunday-night highlight package, and they are also not the panic tick. They are what survived both: money that went in while the game was on, held overnight, then confirmed at a tighter spread the next day.
The order book underneath them is worth one more look, because it says which direction is cheap to push. At our Monday pull, Dallas showed 1,173 contracts bid at 20 cents against 28,739 offered at 21 — and roughly 99,000 stacked from 21 through 23. The Giants showed 699 bid at 22 against 70,780 offered at 23. Some of that lopsidedness is just how a market maker quotes a four-way partition, since it is effectively short the whole board. But the practical reading holds: anyone trying to buy these two back up has a wall in front of them, and anyone selling into the bids will move the price quickly. This board is far easier to push down than up right now.
What The Playoff Board Says That The Division Board Won't
Kalshi runs a separate contract on whether each team makes the 2026 playoffs at all. It is the same exchange, the same four teams and the same news, with one difference: it does not require that a team win the NFC East. Put the two side by side and the division board stops looking like a verdict on football and starts looking like a verdict on a bracket.
Both columns below are measured the same way, pre-kickoff mid to Monday-midday mid, so the two boards are directly comparable.
| Team | Division move | Playoff move | Playoffs now | Division ÷ playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | +9.5 | +6.0 | 68¢ | 76% |
| New York Giants | +10.0 | +12.5 | 41.5¢ | 54% |
| Dallas Cowboys | −14.5 | −10.0 | 42.5¢ | 48% |
| Washington Commanders | −2.0 | 0.0 | 26.5¢ | 36% |
Kalshi KXNFLPLAYOFF-27 and KXNFLNFCEAST-27, mid prices, pre-kickoff read taken at 12:51 p.m. ET Sunday — about three and a half hours before the first kickoff. The pre-kickoff division quotes were Dallas 34/36 and the Giants 12/13, which is exactly where this page's own price watcher had the board before the games, so the basis checks out.
Three of the four contracts moved further on the division board than on the playoff board, on news that was identical for both: Philadelphia 9.5 cents against 6, Dallas 14.5 against 10, Washington 2 against nothing whatsoever. Across all four teams it is 36 cents of division movement against 28.5 of playoff movement. That is not the three-to-one gap the size of the Dallas headline implies. It is about five to four — real, consistent, and much smaller than the noise on this board makes it look.
The single exception is the Giants, and the exception has the same cause as the rule. New York is the one team here that gained more on the playoff board (+12.5) than on this one (+10), because its division path is blocked and its wild-card path is not. Look at where the two contracts actually sit: on the playoff board Dallas and the Giants are a single cent apart, 42.5 to 41.5, which inside one-cent spreads on both is as close to "the same" as this exchange gets. On the division board they are two cents apart the other way. The market has not decided the Giants are the better team. It has decided the Giants have a cheaper route through this particular division, and the reason is a result Dallas cannot un-play.
Then there is Washington, which is the cleanest version of the whole idea. Its division price fell two cents on the game. Its playoff price did not move one tick: 26 bid and 27 offered before kickoff, 26 bid and 27 offered on Monday. The exchange did not reconsider Washington as a football team on Sunday night. It reconsidered Washington's standing inside a four-team race in which the two teams that won are now both in front of it, and one of them holds the first of its two meetings with Washington. A one-score road loss did not touch the Commanders' odds of playing in January at all. That is the clearest statement on this page that the division board prices position, not talent.
So, did the market overreact? On the game itself, not by much — five cents of division movement for every four of playoff movement, which is about what a head-to-head result inside a closed set of four ought to be worth, since it adds to somebody else's column at the same moment it subtracts from yours. The overreaction, if there was one, happened inside a single second on the trade tape, and the book took it back within the hour.
Dallas: The Defense Did Its Job And The Price Fell Anyway
In August this page put Dallas at the center of the argument and wrote down the test it would have to pass: "Give up 27 or more per game through Week 5 and the panel's 31 is generous. Hold opponents in the low twenties and the market's 36 cents was cheap."
Dallas gave up 28. By the letter of its own test, the Cowboys failed in Week 1, and 14.5 cents came out of the price between Sunday lunchtime and Monday lunchtime. But the test was written for the wrong unit, and the box score is the reason.
The defense that allowed more points than any team in the NFL last season went to MetLife Stadium, spent 36 minutes and 40 seconds on the field, watched the Giants pile up 394 yards and 29 first downs, and still gave up fewer points than its own 2025 average. Read that as the flattering number it is: 28 points allowed on 394 yards is not a fixed defense, it is a defense that bent all night and got two stops. But the offense is the part that was supposed to be settled. Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens were all on the field, behind the only offensive coordinator in the division who kept his job, and Dallas produced 244 total yards at 4.7 per play.
The individual lines say the same thing. Prescott went 22 of 34 for 175 yards with two touchdowns and an interception, and was not sacked once. Lamb caught five of eight targets for 44 yards. Pickens caught three of six for 28. Javonte Williams scored twice and gained 41 yards on 12 carries. Nine penalties for 90 yards did not help.
The offseason defensive money showed up in the box score, for whatever a first Sunday is worth: first-round safety Caleb Downs had eight tackles and a sack, Donovan Ezeiruaku had ten tackles and two quarterback hits, safety Jalen Thompson had nine tackles, and Rashan Gary, Quinnen Williams and Cobie Durant each recorded a tackle or better. The 3-4 conversion under a first-time coordinator is the bet this market was asked to make in August, and one game is not a verdict on it. What one game did do was raise a question nobody was asking three weeks ago, which is whether the 471-point offense was the part that needed checking.
Dallas hosts Washington on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET. The loser of that game is 0-2, 0-2 in the division, and effectively racing Philadelphia for a wild card rather than a title.
Washington: A Blocked Extra Point Is Why This Price Is Under Ten Cents
Washington's game turned on two defensive plays by the same team it was trying to catch.
In the second quarter, after Jacory Croskey-Merritt's one-yard touchdown run, Jalen Carter blocked Drew Stevens' extra point. Philadelphia's own recap of the game records it plainly: "Extra point by Drew Stevens is blocked by Jalen Carter!" Because of that block, Washington's last touchdown of the night — Daniels to Antonio Williams with 1:01 left — cut the lead to two rather than one, and required a two-point conversion to tie rather than a kick. Washington called a shovel pass to John Bates. Moro Ojomo read it and stopped the tight end before the line of scrimmage.
Carter is one of the players this page named in August as the reason to believe Philadelphia's defense would carry forward: the four-year, $152 million extension, the largest ever given to a defensive tackle. The arithmetic of the fourth quarter changed because he got a hand on a kick.
Strip the two swing plays out and look at what Washington actually did on the road against the defending division champion. The Commanders held the ball for 33:20, ran 295 yards of offense, turned it over zero times, and got a full healthy game from Daniels — 18 of 34 for 164 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, plus 31 yards on five carries. The defense Washington spent all offseason buying, which this page listed by name in August, is the part that most clearly showed up. Washington sacked Jalen Hurts three times, and the three sacks belonged to three different players: Odafe Oweh, who added two tackles for loss and a quarterback hit; Sonny Styles, the No. 7 pick, who matched him with two tackles for loss and a hit of his own; and Frankie Luvu. Safety Nick Cross led the team with eight tackles, Amik Robertson had six, and Leo Chenal and Tim Settle both recorded tackles. That group held an 11-6 defending division champion to 10 first downs.
Ten first downs, and Washington lost. The Eagles' 318 yards came at 6.0 a play in chunks — a 64-yard catch by Dontayvion Wicks, a 43-yard touchdown to Dallas Goedert — against a Washington offense that went 5 for 15 on third down and could not turn 33 minutes of possession into more than 22 points.
Here is where the playoff board earns its place in this story. Washington's odds of making the playoffs at all sat at 26 bid, 27 offered on Monday, the identical quote the contract carried before kickoff. The exchange watched the same game you did and concluded nothing at all about whether this team plays in January. What it concluded, at a cost of two cents, is that Washington is now 0-1 in the division, has already handed Philadelphia the first of their two meetings, and is fourth of four in a race where the leader just cleared 50 cents. The 9.5-cent price is a statement about the bracket, not about Jayden Daniels.
Philadelphia: Ten First Downs, Three Touchdown Passes, And The Whole Board's Spare Change
The August case for the Eagles was that their plus-54 point differential was built on defense rather than offense, and that defense-driven seasons carry forward better. Week 1 was that argument in miniature, played out to an uncomfortable two-point margin.
Philadelphia scored 24 and allowed 22. Its 2025 averages were 22.3 and 19.1. The offense managed 10 first downs and was sacked three times for 21 yards, and Jalen Hurts still threw three touchdowns and no interceptions for 203 yards, adding 46 yards on seven carries. Saquon Barkley ran 15 times for 83. The defense gave up 295 yards, forced 5-for-15 on third down, blocked the extra point and stopped the two-point try.
The nine and a half cents Philadelphia gained on Sunday is the second-largest move on the board, and Philadelphia earned only part of it. In a four-way market where exactly one contract pays, the 14.5 cents that came out of Dallas had to land somewhere, and it did not all land on the team that beat Dallas: the Giants took ten, the Eagles took nine and a half without being on the field against either of them.
The ratio column above is where that shows up. Philadelphia's division price is 76 percent of its playoff price, the highest figure on the board by a distance, which is the market saying that "the Eagles reach January" and "the Eagles win this division" have become close to the same bet. In August they were not: this page recorded the Eagles at 39.5 cents to win the division and 59 to make the field, a ratio of 67 percent. That convergence, not the two-point margin, is what 51.5 cents is actually pricing, and it is the first thing that comes back off if Philadelphia loses in Tennessee this weekend.
Two details from the game are worth keeping because they answer questions this page asked in August and nobody else is tracking. The receiving room that lost A.J. Brown to New England in last offseason's trade produced the two plays that decided it: a 64-yard catch by Dontayvion Wicks in his Eagles debut, and Goedert's 43-yard touchdown with six minutes left, the winner. And Jonathan Greenard, the edge rusher whose pectoral injury this page named as the specific thing to watch in this opener, does not appear anywhere in the Eagles' defensive box score. Philadelphia won its division opener without him, with ten first downs, on two throws.
The Giants: 23 Of 29, No Interceptions, And The Only Number That Matters
John Harbaugh's first regular-season game with the Giants produced the quietest kind of upset: New York scored exactly seven points in each of the four quarters and never trailed at any point.
Jaxson Dart, in his second season, completed 23 of 29 for 230 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions, and ran 11 times for 54 more. Isaiah Likely caught eight passes for 78 yards and two scores. Cam Skattebo carried 18 times for 81 yards and a touchdown. Malik Nabers, back from the knee injury that ended his previous season in Week 4, was active and caught six of nine targets for 69 yards. The Giants ran 36:40 of clock, converted 9 of 11 third downs and out-gained Dallas 394 to 244 in front of 83,286 at MetLife.
Both teams turned the ball over exactly once, so there was no turnover edge. What there was, was timing. New York's giveaway was a Tyrone Tracy Jr. fumble in the second quarter with the game tied. Dallas's was a possession that ended with Jevon Holland intercepting Dak Prescott, and about seven minutes later, with 20 seconds left in the half, Dart found Likely for the touchdown that started 14 unanswered points across the turn of the break.
Ten cents on the division board is the market's price for that, and it is a smaller raise than the 12.5 cents the same result bought the Giants on the playoff board. That gap is not a mistake. It says the exchange has moved New York meaningfully toward a January berth and only modestly toward a division title, because a division title has to go through a Philadelphia team that just cleared 50 cents, and the Giants play the Eagles twice, in Week 9 and in Week 18.
One more caution, in the Giants' own interest: they now go to Los Angeles to play the Rams on Monday night, then host Tennessee and Arizona. The three weeks after this one will say more about whether 22.5 cents was cheap than Sunday did.
Grading Our Own August Numbers
This is the part most pages skip. The eight-model panel scored this division on August 21 without being shown a single price, and those numbers are frozen — they do not get quietly updated when the world moves. Here is how they look one week in.
| Team | Panel (Aug 21) | Kalshi then | Panel said | Kalshi now | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 31% | 36¢ | too rich | 20.5¢ | right |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 37% | 39.5¢ | too rich | 51.5¢ | wrong |
| New York Giants | 12% | 14.5¢ | too rich | 22.5¢ | wrong |
| Washington Commanders | 20% | 14.5¢ | too cheap | 9.5¢ | wrong |
One for four. The panel's largest disagreement with the market in August was Washington at plus-5.5 cents, and that is the call that is furthest underwater today. Its second-largest was Dallas at minus-5.0, and that is the call that cashed hardest: 15.5 cents of the market came to meet it over three weeks, 14.5 of that in a single night.
There is a defense of the other three and it is worth stating, because it is also the argument for not re-running the panel every Monday. The models were asked, in August, to price a full season. They were not asked to price the standings after one week. A 12 percent Giants estimate and a 22.5-cent Giants price are not necessarily in conflict: the market is now holding a result the panel did not have, and one result out of 17 is worth something real but not ten cents of something real. The honest position is that the panel's Washington call is the one genuinely in trouble, because the thing it was betting on — Daniels healthy — happened, and the price went the wrong way anyway.
We re-score this board when the story moves, and we publish the old number next to the new one every time. The next re-score has a natural date on it.
Every Seat's August Number
All eight seats scored this market on August 21. Each number is that model's own estimate that the team wins the division, taken after a revision round in which every model read the others' anonymized reasoning. These are not live estimates and have not been touched.
| Team | Kalshi (Aug 21) | Fable | Opus | Sonnet | ChatGPT | Gemini | GLM | Kimi | DeepSeek | Panel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 39.5¢ | 37 | 41 | 37 | 34 | 37 | 33 | 38 | 36 | 37% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 36¢ | 31 | 27 | 30 | 36 | 32 | 36 | 31 | 30 | 31% |
| Washington Commanders | 14.5¢ | 20 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 22 | 20% |
| New York Giants | 14.5¢ | 12 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12% |
Opus was the panel's lowest seat on Dallas at 27, and its August sentence is the one that aged best on Sunday night:
Asking a 32nd-ranked unit to reach average through a 3-4 conversion under a first-time coordinator and a year-two head coach is a two-step bet, not one. — Opus
What actually happened in Week 1 was stranger than that. The defense came in close to average for a night and the offense was the unit that could not clear its own 2025 bar.
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements — records to date: Gemini 86% on 4,292 graded calls · GLM 81% on 2,367 graded calls · Kimi 83% on 2,345 graded calls · DeepSeek 80% on 2,392 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Every number in this piece gets graded in public once the market settles; the running tally lives on the full graded scoreboard.
More live boards from the same panel: NFC West odds · NFL playoff odds (Eagles 68¢ to make the field) · Super Bowl 2027 odds. Prices fetched September 14, 2026.
The Market
| Venue | Kalshi |
| The Event | NFC East Division Winner, 2026-27 season. One yes/no contract per team, four in total, mutually exclusive |
| The Contract | Resolves Yes for the team that wins the NFC East, per Kalshi's rules text: "If Philadelphia wins the Pro Football NFC East Division, then the market resolves to Yes" |
| Decided By | The league's declared division title, which comes down to regular-season record and then the NFL's published tiebreaker sequence: head-to-head, division record, common games, conference record, and on down |
| Settlement Sources | Kalshi's achievements contract terms name the governing league plus the Associated Press, ESPN, The Wall Street Journal and Fox Sports, and specify that revisions made after expiration are not accounted for |
| Expected Expiration | January 11, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET, one day after the final Sunday of the regular season; the market can close early once a title holder is declared |
| Prices Above As Of | 12:50 p.m. ET on September 14, 2026. Quoted spreads were one cent on all four contracts |
There is one settlement quirk worth naming, because the contract language allows something the sport does not. Kalshi's template covers every sports achievement it lists, and it says that if multiple participants are reported as the result, Yes holders split the dollar. In practice that clause never fires here: the NFL names exactly one division champion every season, and the tiebreaker sequence runs deep enough to resolve any tie in the standings. Four numbers, one winner, no split.
What Would Change This Board Next
Four checkable events, each with the direction it pushes the price.
- Washington At Dallas, Sunday, September 20, 4:25 P.m. ET. The first of the ten remaining division games, every one of which moves two of these four contracts at once — worth, on Sunday's evidence, roughly five cents of division price for every four of playoff price. Both teams are 0-1 and 0-1 in the division; the loser is 0-2 with two division losses and, at 20.5 and 9.5 cents, a title bid that mostly exists on paper. The single largest scheduled catalyst on this board before November.
- Whether Dallas's Offense Repeats Week 1. The Cowboys' case in August rested on a top-10 offense being the settled part, and Week 1 came in at 4.7 yards per play and 20 points against a 2025 average of 27.7. Two more Sundays under five yards a play and 20.5 cents stops looking like an overreaction to one night. Clear 27 against Washington and Baltimore and the market has to hand back a chunk of the 14.5 it took.
- Philadelphia's Margin, Not Philadelphia's Record. The Eagles are 51.5 cents, and 76 percent of their own playoff price, on a two-point home win with 10 first downs. A second narrow one at Tennessee, then at Chicago on Monday night, is what keeps that ratio from stretching further. Two comfortable wins and the rest of this board is playing for a wild card by October.
- The Rematches. Every pair in this division plays twice, and only two of the ten games left are rematches of games already played: Philadelphia at Washington on November 1, and the Giants at Dallas on January 3 in Week 17. Neither of the two head-to-head edges the market priced on Sunday is settled until then, which is the strongest argument that 24.5 cents of swing was too much, too early.
Settlement Timeline
| Decided By | Regular-season record, then the NFL's published tiebreaker sequence |
| Standings After Week 1 | Philadelphia 1-0, New York Giants 1-0, Dallas 0-1, Washington 0-1 |
| Next Division Game | Sunday, September 20, 2026: Washington at Dallas, 4:25 PM ET |
| Remaining Division Slate | NY Giants at Washington (Oct 11) · Dallas at Philadelphia (Mon, Oct 26) · Philadelphia at Washington (Nov 1) · NY Giants at Philadelphia (Nov 8) · Washington at NY Giants (Thu, Nov 12) · Philadelphia at Dallas, Thanksgiving (Nov 26) · NY Giants at Dallas (Jan 3) · Week 18 (Jan 10): Dallas at Washington and Philadelphia at NY Giants |
| Kalshi Expected Expiration | January 11, 2027, 10:00 AM ET; early close permitted once a title holder is declared |
| Re-Scored | when the story moves; prices on this page are stamped 12:50 p.m. ET, September 14, 2026 |
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The Bottom Line
The headline number on this board is 24.5 cents and the honest number is much smaller. The biggest single event of Sunday night was not a team. It was one seller, taking Dallas from 34 cents to 18 in a second the market spent the next 40 minutes undoing. Everything that stuck afterwards — 36 cents of division movement against 28.5 next door, Washington's playoff quote not moving one tick, the Giants gaining more on a board they are not favoured on — is a market filing a result, not changing its mind about a season.
Our own August numbers came out of the weekend one for four, and the call that cashed was Dallas, the one place the panel thought the market was demanding too much for a defense that had to make a two-step jump. The defense made most of the jump; the offense went missing. Being right for the wrong reason still counts against the ledger, and we will say so again when this board gets re-scored. Washington is at Dallas on Sunday afternoon, the first of ten games that move two of these prices at once, and the loser will find out quickly how much of a seventeen-game season really gets decided in September.
Prediction markets are for adults 18 and older and carry risk. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
Prices on this page are Kalshi's book. If you also trade on Polymarket, code OS4 gets new users a $50 trading bonus on a $10 deposit — affiliate link; terms as stated by Polymarket; 18+, availability varies by state.
