Updated October 28, 2026
DeForest Buckner's next team is set to be the San Francisco 49ers, the club that drafted him: the Indianapolis Colts announced a trade sending him there on October 27. San Francisco gave up a 2027 fourth-round pick, and reports that day said the deal still needed Buckner to pass a physical. Kalshi's market on his next team makes the 49ers a heavy favorite.
The trade that sent Buckner back to San Francisco
The Colts logged the deal in their transactions list on October 27: a 2027 fourth-round pick from San Francisco in exchange for Buckner. By October 28, his ESPN player page listed him with the 49ers. A league source told the Mercury News on October 27 that the trade was pending a physical.
San Francisco drafted Buckner seventh overall in 2016 and played him for four seasons, the last ending in a Super Bowl loss. The 49ers traded him to Indianapolis in March 2020 for the 13th pick in that spring's draft. He spent seven seasons as a Colt and has made three Pro Bowls in his career.
Indianapolis was dismantling its roster. The Colts were 2-5 after three straight losses and had fired general manager Chris Ballard the week before. Earlier on the day of the Buckner deal they sent guard Quenton Nelson to Seattle for a 2027 third-round pick and a 2028 fifth-rounder, the Associated Press reported. After a Week 6 loss to the previously winless Tennessee Titans, Buckner said he was "sick and tired of the same song and dance every year," Yahoo Sports recounted.
San Francisco was 6-1, first in the NFC West and on its bye week when the trade landed. Pass rusher Nick Bosa had been limited to two games by a calf injury and was expected back after the bye, and Buckner immediately becomes the team's best defensive tackle, Matt Maiocco wrote for NBC Sports Bay Area. Buckner had four sacks in seven games with the Colts in 2026, matching his total through 10 games in 2025.
What the 49ers contract needs before it pays
| Market | DeForest Buckner's next team before Dec 1, 2026: San Francisco (Kalshi) |
| Price for Yes | 97 cents, about a 97% chance |
| As of | October 28, 2026 |
A Yes contract pays $1 if San Francisco is the next team Buckner officially joins, so the price reads as the market's confidence that the trade goes through. Kalshi's contract terms count a trade only once its execution is approved by the league office and reported by a listed source, a list that includes the teams' own websites, ESPN and the Associated Press. The Colts' announcement and ESPN's listing both come from that list, but the market was still open on the date above, with San Francisco's side of the deal reported as waiting on the physical. A verbal agreement that is not yet official does not count; what counts is the moment the trade becomes official. A trade that falls through before it is completed is disregarded, and if Buckner is still under contract with the Colts when the market closes on December 1, the Indianapolis contract pays.
The board ends before free agency. Buckner is signed only through this season and is scheduled for unrestricted free agency in March, a question this market does not reach.
How the trade could still come apart
An announced trade can still be voided at the physical. In August 2022, Miami traded tight end Adam Shaheen to Houston on a Tuesday, and the deal was voided two days later when he failed his physical with a pre-existing knee condition. Buckner had neck surgery on New Year's Eve 2025, nearly two months after he first had a herniated disk, the Mercury News noted, and he has played 82% of the Colts' defensive snaps in 2026, according to the AP.
If the deal did fail, the Colts could keep him or trade him elsewhere before the trade deadline at 1 p.m. Pacific on November 10.
A check from six forecasting models
Before writing this page, we asked nine AI forecasting models to put a probability on every team on the board without showing them how traders had it; three could not be reached. The six that answered gave San Francisco between 98% and 100%, with the small remainder mostly on Indianapolis keeping him or on the Retires / No Team outcome. The models read the same reporting cited above, so their agreement checks how this page reads it.
What would change the picture
- The physical and San Francisco's announcement. Once the trade's approval is reported, the 49ers contract pays and the board closes early; a failed physical leads to the case in the section above.
- The deadline passing. Once trading closes, a deal that came apart would most likely leave Buckner a Colt through the market's close.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. DeForest Buckner photo by Jeffrey Beall, licensed CC BY 4.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
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Market price from Kalshi as of the date above. Prices change constantly. Nothing here is a prediction of fact, and it is not financial advice.
