Prediction Markets: Kalshi, Polymarket & Model Verdicts
Prediction-market betting from the OddsShopper team — how Kalshi and Polymarket work, where they beat the sportsbook price, platform guides, and our AI Model Verdicts on real markets. Contract prices shown in cents with the American-odds equivalent.
Patriots vs Bears Anytime TD Picks: Maye At 20 Cents
Four anytime touchdown prices for Thursday night, each typed into Ask the Sims and answered from 10,000 runs. Settled: Drake Maye at 21 cents and Luther Burden III at 33 both scored, the Rhamondre Stevenson fade lost on a 48-yard catch as the half ended, and Kyle Williams saw one target.
Thursday Night Football Picks: Maye Completes 22
Four Patriots vs Bears props for Thursday night from 10,000 Sims, graded: Rhamondre Stevenson under 50 rushing yards won on 22, Caleb Williams stayed under 34 attempts, and the Drake Maye completions leg Thursday's Sims took off the card paid on a 3-yard throw with 1:28 left.
PA-7 House Odds: The Wall On Bob Brooks Is Already Gone
Bob Brooks is 87 cents on Kalshi, above the 79 he held before the September 11 drop to 68. The Siena poll of October 25 has him up five, 49-44, and the quote did not move; the day's biggest trade bought Ryan Mackenzie at 16. Mackenzie is 12. Cook and Sabato lean the seat Democratic.
2028 Senate Control Odds: Who Wins The Senate In 2028?
Kalshi's last trade makes Democrats 54-cent favorites to win the Senate in 2028, six cents under what traders give the same party in the presidential race. Eight AI models priced the map blind and landed somewhere else.
How Does Kalshi Make Money? A Hidden 5% Edge
How does Kalshi make money? Not just the fee schedule: a hidden 5% house edge baked into its prices too, measured across 770 settled events.
How To Win On Kalshi: What A Winning Trade Actually Needs
How to win on Kalshi, in plain English: what a price means, what the fee costs, why fills matter more than backtests, and a straight answer on whether it pays.
2026 Midterm Election Odds: Every Race On One Board
2026 midterm election odds on one board: an AI panel prices House and Senate control price-blind, agreeing on a Democratic House but fading a Democratic Senate.
Can You Actually Beat A 15-Minute Market?
Kalshi now runs 15-minute up-or-down markets on Bitcoin, gold, silver, oil, and stock indexes. Here is the honest answer on whether the tape can be beaten, plus a live board of every series.
Kalshi 15-Minute Bitcoin Rigged? We Checked 200 Windows
We checked 200 Kalshi 15-minute Bitcoin windows, then 2,400 more. Wide finishes rarely flip late, 13 in 1,423. The other 250 flips sat within $50 of the line.
Prediction Market Strategies: A Kalshi Beginner's Guide
Prediction market strategies for beginners: calibrate probabilities, find soft crowd prices, size for fees, and manage a Kalshi bankroll. Live example and the October state map inside.
Kalshi Odds: What The Cents Mean In American Odds
A Kalshi price is a probability: 62 cents means a 62% chance, or -163 at a sportsbook. The chart and formula that turn cents into American odds, both ways.
Best Kalshi Anytime Touchdown Props for Week 7: One Play in Every Sunday Window
A scrambling quarterback against a bottom-two run defense, a red-zone favorite in the week's biggest shootout and a receiver who is his team's entire passing game.
2026 Governor Races: Every Kalshi Board We Track
Every live 2026 Governor Races page in one place, standing boards first.
2026 Senate Races: Every Kalshi Board We Track
Every live 2026 Senate Races page in one place, standing boards first.
Josh Jacobs Suspension: When He Plays Again
Today, Sunday, October 25, at Detroit. The Packers activated Josh Jacobs on Saturday after six games on the Commissioner's Exempt List and a full week of practice, and he is expected to play; the NFL review is still open. Green Bay is 37 cents to win at Detroit, down a cent from Thursday.
ProphetX Vs Novig: Which Betting Exchange Wins? (2026)
ProphetX vs Novig: two CFTC-regulated sports betting exchanges compared honestly on markets, liquidity, fees, state availability, and the welcome offers.
Kalshi Promo Code 2026: The Wrong Code Pays You Less
Kalshi promo code 2026: the code you type at sign-up sets the bonus. Same $10 in, same $25 traded: a fixed $60 at the top, a fixed $55 at most of the rest, one 'up to $55' with no floor stated. Checked Oct. 25.
Kalshi Picks Today: The Bengals Row Pays, Three of Six Land
Sunday afternoon Kalshi board, 5:07 p.m. ET prices: the Bengals 3.5 listed at 30 cents paid after Cincinnati won 35-13 in Baltimore, three of six Sunday rows landed for plus 69 cents, the Cowboys and Cardinals rows stay open, nothing new lists for tonight or Monday.
Butterfield Bermuda Championship Odds: A Pileup Meets a Gale
After 36 holes at Port Royal, a dozen players sit within two shots, Kalshi's winner board leans toward Corey Conners over the co-leaders, and a gale warning covers Sunday.
Texans vs Jaguars Anytime TD Picks: Fade Woody Marks
Four anytime touchdown prices for the Wembley game, each typed into Ask the Sims and answered from 10,000 runs. Settled: the Woody Marks and Dalton Schultz fades won, the Nico Collins buy and Chris Rodriguez Jr. lean lost, and Houston threw from the 1-yard line twice.
