David Montgomery is out for Sunday's 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff at Wembley, a groin injury on Houston's injury report at ESPN, dated Thursday, and the market did what markets do with an injury: it moved his touchdowns to the next back. Woody Marks is priced at 44¢ to score, the highest number on Houston's side. The Sims, 10,000 runs of Texans at Jaguars from Friday afternoon, score him once in 3.4 games.
That is the touchdown board in one line: Houston's scorers are priced as if the Texans will run it in, and the Sims say Houston's touchdowns mostly come through the air: five of its 11 this season were runs, and Marks has two of those. Houston averages 79 rushing yards a game and 22 points.
Each pick below starts with the question I typed into Ask the Sims on Friday afternoon and the card it sent back: the Sims' answer, the Kalshi price beside it, and a verdict on the price. I will ask all four again Saturday morning and after the inactives post Sunday, and anything the Sims stop backing comes off the card.
From the Kalshi Combo Simulator on Stokastic, Friday afternoon. Tap the image to open it on Texans at Jaguars.
Fade Woody Marks
NO on Woody Marks scores a TD · 59.7¢ (-148) on Kalshi · the Sims have it at 70.8%
What I asked: "How often does Woody Marks score a touchdown?"
The answer card from Ask the Sims in the Kalshi Combo Simulator, Friday, 4:21 p.m. CT, is the three-phone image above: Marks scores in 29.2% of 10,000 Sims against 44.7¢ on Kalshi, negative value, so the NO at 59.7¢ against 70.8% is the bet. Tap the image to ask your own question about this game.
This is a fade of the price, not the player. Marks has two touchdowns in five games, one against Indianapolis and one against Dallas, both on short carries, and 15 carries for 62 yards against Tennessee last Sunday. He will get the ball. The Sims give him a median of 15 carries and 45 yards, and score him in 29.2% of games, because Houston does not reach the goal line often enough for any one back to be a 44¢ scorer: the Texans average 22 points and the Sims put their median at 20, two touchdowns and two field goals in a typical run, and Nico Collins takes the largest share of the touchdowns there are.
The market moved Marks from a bench back's price to a lead back's price the day Montgomery was ruled out. The Sims moved him too, from a long shot to a 29% shot, and 29% is still 15¢ short of 44¢. The NO at 59.7¢ is 11.1¢ of edge, the widest gap on the touchdown board and wider than anything on the Kalshi picks page.
What has to happen
Houston scores its touchdowns from outside the 5, or scores two or fewer. Both are the normal script for this offense; the Sims have Houston at two touchdowns or fewer in most runs. The fade loses when Houston gets three goal-line snaps and hands Marks two of them, the Dallas game, which the Sims give once in 3.4 tries.
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | NO on Woody Marks scores a TD | 59.7¢ (-148) | No touchdown in 70.8% of the Sims; 11.1¢ of edge, the widest on the board |
| SKIP | YES on Woody Marks scores a TD | 44.7¢ (+124) | 29.2% in the Sims; 15.5¢ against you, the injury premium |
| SKIP | YES on Woody Marks 2+ TDs | 10.6¢ (+843) | 4.7% in the Sims; the Dallas game priced as a one-in-ten |
Collins At +172
Nico Collins scores a TD · 36.6¢ (+173) on Kalshi · the Sims have it at 39.4%
What I asked: "How often does Nico Collins score a touchdown?"
The answer card from Ask the Sims, Friday, 4:21 p.m. CT. Tap it to ask your own question about this game.
Collins is where Houston's touchdowns go. He has three touchdowns in the three games he has played, two of them against Dallas on a 7-catch, 118-yard afternoon and one against Buffalo, with 5 catches for 56 yards against Tennessee. The Sims make him the likeliest Texan to score, 39.4%, and the likeliest player in the game, ahead of Parker Washington at 37.1% and Bhayshul Tuten at 36.5%.
The price is 36.6¢ with the fee in, 2.8¢ of edge. Tank Dell's move to injured reserve on Thursday is the reason the number holds: Houston's red-zone targets concentrate on Collins and Dalton Schultz, and the Sims give Schultz one touchdown in five or six games, so Collins carries the passing touchdowns. C.J. Stroud throws a touchdown pass in 81.2% of the Sims; Collins catches a plurality of them.
What has to happen
Stroud throws at least one touchdown and Collins is the target, which is the way Houston has scored all season. The bet loses in the game where Houston's two touchdowns are a Marks plunge and a Schultz seam, the Sims' least likely pair.
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | YES on Nico Collins scores a TD | 36.6¢ (+173) | 39.4% in the Sims; 2.8¢ of edge, the likeliest scorer in the game |
| Fair | YES on Parker Washington scores a TD | 36.6¢ (+173) | 37.1% in the Sims; a cent of edge, the Jaguar to own if you want one |
| SKIP | YES on Nico Collins 2+ TDs | 7.5¢ (+1233) | 8.0% in the Sims; the Dallas game, priced fair |
Fade Dalton Schultz
NO on Dalton Schultz scores a TD · 80.2¢ (-405) on Kalshi · the Sims have it at 81.7%
What I asked: "How often does Dalton Schultz score a touchdown?"
The answer card from Ask the Sims, Friday, 4:21 p.m. CT. Tap it to ask your own question about this game.
Same idea as the Marks fade, smaller edge, safer price. Schultz has no touchdown in five games and one big day, 12 catches for 140 yards against Cincinnati, and the market prices him at 23¢ to score, a tight end's red-zone premium. The Sims give him 18.3%, because the targets near the goal line go to Collins and the carries go to Marks, and because Houston's median of two touchdowns a game does not leave a third for the tight end.
The NO at 80.2¢ is 1.5¢ of edge. You lay four to one to collect it, so this is the leg to size small and hold, not the one to build around.
What has to happen
Nothing unusual. Houston scores twice, Collins catches one and Marks or Stroud gets the other, and Schultz's morning is yards between the 20s. The fade loses on the seam route from the 8, the kind of play Houston has not run for him since September.
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy small | NO on Dalton Schultz scores a TD | 80.2¢ (-405) | No touchdown in 81.7% of the Sims; 1.5¢ of edge |
| SKIP | YES on Dalton Schultz scores a TD | 23.2¢ (+331) | 18.3% in the Sims; 4.9¢ against you |
| PASS | NO on Trevor Lawrence scores a TD | 83.0¢ (-488) | 85.9% in the Sims; 2.9¢ of edge, the same bet on the other sideline |
Rodriguez At +481
Chris Rodriguez Jr. scores a TD · 16.9¢ (+492) on Kalshi · the Sims have it at 19.0%
What I asked: "How often does Chris Rodriguez Jr. score a touchdown?"
The answer card from Ask the Sims, Friday, 4:21 p.m. CT. Tap it to ask your own question about this game.
The long shot on the card, and the one Jacksonville's own box scores explain. Bhayshul Tuten is the Jaguars' lead back, 22 carries against Philadelphia, and he is priced that way at 42.6¢ to score. Rodriguez is the goal-line back: two touchdowns in five games, a touchdown against New England on 8 carries and a score against Cincinnati on 6, and two carries against the Eagles. Jacksonville averages 24.6 points and 114 rushing yards a game, the run game Houston does not have, and the Sims give the Jaguars a median of 22 points, three scores, with the short-yardage carries split between Tuten and Rodriguez.
The Sims score Rodriguez in 19.0% of games against 16.9¢, 2.1¢ of edge on a one-in-five shot. Tuten, by contrast, is 36.5% in the Sims against 42.7¢, 6.2¢ against you: the market pays the lead back for the yards and the Sims pay the goal-line back for the touchdowns.
What has to happen
Jacksonville leads, runs in the second half, and gets a first-and-goal inside the 5 with Rodriguez on the field. The Sims see that in one game in five. It loses in the game Jacksonville trails, which is the game Tuten and Washington score instead.
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy small | YES on Chris Rodriguez Jr. scores a TD | 16.9¢ (+492) | 19.0% in the Sims; 2.1¢ of edge on the goal-line back |
| SKIP | YES on Bhayshul Tuten scores a TD | 42.7¢ (+134) | 36.5% in the Sims; 6.2¢ against you, the lead back's price |
| SKIP | YES on C.J. Stroud scores a TD | 10.6¢ (+843) | 15.7% in the Sims; 5¢ of edge on a scramble, the Sims' long shot, not mine |
Run your own Texans-Jaguars script. The Kalshi Combo Simulator plays the game 10,000 times and prices any touchdown scorer next to the price on Kalshi, free, no login.
Building it on DraftKings or FanDuel instead?The free DraftKings Parlay Simulator and FanDuel Parlay Simulator on Stokastic.com price these same scorers from the same 10,000 Sims.
My Take
Four touchdown bets, ranked:
- Buy NO on Woody Marks scores a TD at 59.7¢ (-148). The widest gap on the board, 11.3¢: the market priced the injury, the Sims priced the offense, and Houston's offense rarely runs it in.
- Buy YES on Nico Collins scores a TD at 36.6¢ (+173). The likeliest scorer in the game at 39.4%, with Dell gone and Stroud throwing a touchdown in four games of five.
- Buy small YES on Chris Rodriguez Jr. scores a TD at 16.9¢ (+492). The goal-line Jaguar at a long shot's price; the Sims give him one game in five.
- Buy small NO on Dalton Schultz scores a TD at 80.2¢ (-405). 1.5¢ of edge at four-to-one risk; the leg to hold, not to lead with.
The Marks fade and the Collins buy are the same story told twice, so build one of them with the Rodriguez leg rather than stacking all three. Parker Washington (36.6¢ against 37.1%) is fairly priced after his two-touchdown game against Philadelphia, and Tuten (42.7¢ against 36.5%) costs more than the Sims say. The one Texan priced under the Sims besides Collins is Stroud himself, 10.6¢ to score against 15.7%, a scramble bet I am leaving to the simulator.
Loughy's Texans vs Jaguars London picks take the game side. If you see the touchdowns going differently, ask the free Kalshi Combo Simulator.
Prices: Kalshi, Friday, Oct. 16, 2026, 4:21 p.m. CT, as shown on the four cards, including the taker fee; the Skip, Fair and Pass rows from the same pull. Sims run Friday, 3:50 p.m. CT. Injury statuses from ESPN's reports, read Friday. Kickoff Sunday, Oct. 18, 9:30 a.m. ET at Wembley Stadium. Prices move; check Kalshi before you buy.
More on this: Texans vs Jaguars Kalshi Picks: Houston Throws In London · C.J. Stroud Pass Attempts in London: 31 Is The Floor · Texans vs Jaguars London Picks: The Jags Got Lucky · Who Will Score a Touchdown?
