The Eagles fly to London short-handed. Per ESPN, Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, Hollywood Brown and Dallas Goedert are all questionable, Lane Johnson announced his retirement on Tuesday and center Cam Jurgens was traded to Baltimore on Thursday. Kalshi has no touchdown contract for any of the four questionable starters, and the Sims play this game without them.
That is the whole touchdown board. With the stars out, the Eagles' goal-line work goes to a back the market still prices like a backup, and the Jaguars, 3-1 and favored by 7.5, get the volume on the other side.
Each pick below starts with the question I typed into Ask the Sims on Friday morning and the card it sent back: the Sims' answer, the Kalshi price beside it, and a verdict on the price. The same four markets are on the DraftKings and FanDuel simulators if you bet the sportsbooks.
From the Kalshi Combo Simulator on Stokastic. Tap the image to open it on Eagles at Jaguars.
Shipley Is Priced Like A Backup
Will Shipley scores a TD · 27.3¢ (+266) on Kalshi · the Sims have it at 34.7%
What I asked: "How often does Will Shipley score a touchdown?"
The answer card from Ask the Sims in the Kalshi Combo Simulator, Friday morning: 34.7% of 10,000 Sims against 27.3¢, 7¢ of edge per dollar. Tap the image above to ask your own question about this game.
Shipley is the Eagles' lead back in the Sims because Barkley is questionable and has no Kalshi contract. The market has not caught up: 27.3¢ is a price for a committee back, and the Sims give him the carries of a starter in a game Philadelphia should be chasing.
What has to happen
Philadelphia needs at least two trips inside the 10. The Sims give the Eagles 29.8% to win, which sounds like a low-scoring day, but a trailing team that cannot throw to Smith or Brown runs on the goal line. The card even notes his best game in the Sims, five touchdowns in one run of the 10,000, which tells you how much of the short work is his.
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | YES on Will Shipley scores a TD | 27.3¢ (+266) | 34.7% in the Sims; the best touchdown price in the game |
| SKIP | NO on Will Shipley scores a TD | 76.3¢ (-322) | 65.3% in the Sims; the other side gives up 11¢ |
| SKIP | YES on Will Shipley scores 2+ TDs | 5.3¢ (+1,787) | 6.2% in the Sims, fair, a lottery ticket |
The Sims assume Barkley sits. If he is active Sunday morning, Shipley's share drops and this price is fair, not cheap.
Tuten Is The Favorite For A Reason
Bhayshul Tuten scores a TD · 49.7¢ (+101) on Kalshi · the Sims have it at 52.2%
What I asked: "How often does Bhayshul Tuten score a touchdown?"
The answer card from Ask the Sims, Friday morning. Tap it to ask your own question about this game.
Tuten is the Jaguars' goal-line back and the likeliest scorer on either side. Jacksonville is 2-0 at home and favored by a touchdown, so the Sims give it the red-zone trips. Fifty cents is close to right. It is a coin flip that pays a hair better than even, and the Sims say he lands on the right side of it slightly more than half the time.
What has to happen
Jacksonville holds the lead and keeps handing off. The Sims have the Jaguars winning 70.2% of the time, and Tuten's touchdown is tied to the lead: a 27-16 Jaguars script scores him far more often than a shootout.
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy small | YES on Bhayshul Tuten scores a TD | 49.7¢ (+101) | 52.2% in the Sims; fair, the safest touchdown here |
| SKIP | NO on Bhayshul Tuten scores a TD | 54.7¢ (-121) | 47.8% in the Sims; 7¢ against you |
| ALSO | YES on Bhayshul Tuten scores 2+ TDs | 13.8¢ (+625) | 16.7% in the Sims, 3¢ of edge for the blowout script |
Rodriguez For A Small Stake
Chris Rodriguez Jr. scores a TD · 23.2¢ (+331) on Kalshi · the Sims have it at 27.9%
What I asked: "How often does Chris Rodriguez Jr. score a touchdown?"
The answer card from Ask the Sims, Friday morning. Tap it to ask your own question about this game.
Rodriguez is the second Jaguars back and the short-yardage hammer when Tuten rests. The Sims give him 27.9% to score, and 23.2¢ is the price of a player the market has not watched closely. In a game Jacksonville leads, the second back gets fourth-quarter carries and some of them start at the 2.
What has to happen
A Jaguars lead for most of the second half. The bigger the lead, the more clock-killing carries Rodriguez gets, and some of them start at the 2.
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy small | YES on Chris Rodriguez Jr. scores a TD | 23.2¢ (+331) | 27.9% in the Sims; 5¢ of edge on the second back |
| ALSO | YES on Jakobi Meyers scores a TD | 26.3¢ (+280) | 27.2% in the Sims; fair, the Jaguars' likeliest receiving score |
| SKIP | YES on Parker Washington scores a TD | 39.6¢ (+153) | 38.9% in the Sims; fair, no edge |
Fade Brian Thomas Jr.
NO on Brian Thomas Jr. scores a TD · 82.1¢ (-458) on Kalshi · the Sims have it at 80.6%
What I asked: "How often does Brian Thomas Jr. score a touchdown?"
The answer card from Ask the Sims, Friday morning. Tap it to ask your own question about this game.
This is a fade of the price, not the player. Thomas is the Jaguars' downfield receiver, and the Sims give him 19.4% to score in a run-first script. At 21.1¢ the YES gives up 2¢ a dollar. The NO at 82.1¢ is fair, and it pays in every Jaguars win built on Tuten and the short game, which is most of them.
What has to happen
Nothing unusual. The Sims have Trevor Lawrence under 250 passing yards 68.8% of the time, and a quarterback at 200 yards on a day Jacksonville leads is spreading short throws to Washington, Meyers and Strange, not throwing jump balls to Thomas in the end zone.
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | NO on Brian Thomas Jr. scores a TD | 82.1¢ (-458) | 80.6% in the Sims; fair, and it pays in the common script |
| SKIP | YES on Brian Thomas Jr. scores a TD | 21.1¢ (+374) | 19.4% in the Sims; 2¢ against you |
| SKIP | YES on Dontayvion Wicks scores a TD | 23.2¢ (+331) | 27.7% in the Sims, 4¢ of edge, but he is questionable with a hamstring |
My Take
- Buy YES on Will Shipley scores a TD at 27.3¢ (+266). The best touchdown price in London, and the card agrees: 7¢ of edge on a back the market still files under backup.
- Buy a small YES on Chris Rodriguez Jr. scores a TD at 23.2¢ (+331), the second back in a game Jacksonville should lead late.
- Buy a small YES on Bhayshul Tuten scores a TD at 49.7¢ (+101), fair and the safest ticket here.
- Buy NO on Brian Thomas Jr. scores a TD at 82.1¢ (-458), a fade of the price in a run-first script.
Jakobi Meyers (26.3¢) and Parker Washington (39.6¢) are fair prices, not priorities. Dontayvion Wicks is the Eagles' value receiver if he plays, so check Sunday's inactives before you buy him.
Every price here includes Kalshi's taker fee. For how that fee compares with a sportsbook's cut, see Kalshi fees vs. sportsbook vig.
Betting it on DraftKings or FanDuel instead?Shipley's touchdown is +255 on the DraftKings Parlay Simulator and +260 on the FanDuel Parlay Simulator, priced by the same 10,000 Sims. The Polymarket Combo Simulator has him at 34.7¢, a fair price, so Kalshi is where this one pays.
Every Week 5 game with Sims is in the free Kalshi Combo Simulator. Pick a game, type the final score you expect, and it prices the touchdowns and props for that script.
Prices: Kalshi, Friday, Oct. 9, 2026, 7:54 a.m. CT, as shown on the cards. Injury statuses from ESPN as of Thursday, Oct. 8. These are market prices and estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
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