Drake Maye has one rushing touchdown this season, a keeper in the 45-17 win over Las Vegas, and Kalshi prices his Thursday night touchdown at 20¢. The Sims, 10,000 runs of Patriots at Bears, score him in 30.4% of games. That is the widest gap on the touchdown board, and it comes from the way the Sims play this offense: Maye has carried the ball 34 times for 185 yards through six games, and when New England reaches the goal line with Romeo Doubs on injured reserve and A.J. Brown questionable, the quarterback's legs are one of the few red-zone weapons left.
That is the board in one line: the Sims score the quarterback and the Bears' best receiver more often than the market pays for, and they fade the running back the market has priced like a goal-line back in a backfield he shares.
Each pick below starts with the question I typed into Ask the Sims on Wednesday morning and the card it sent back: the Sims' answer, the Kalshi price beside it, and a verdict on the price. Ask the first one yourself here; it opens with the question already typed.
Maye At 20 Cents
Drake Maye scores a TD · 20¢ (+400) on Kalshi · the Sims have it at 30.4%
What I asked: "How often does Drake Maye score a touchdown?"
The card from 8:11 a.m. CT Wednesday, the 3:08 a.m. Sims run against the live Kalshi price. The edge line on the card is the simulator's own figure; the edges in this article are the Sims number minus the fee-in cost in each table. Tap the card to ask the same question and see the current number.
The game log says once in six. The Sims say three in ten, and the difference is the carries. Maye runs between four and eight times a game, 47 yards against Seattle, 54 at Buffalo, 24 against the Jets, and the Sims have him at 25 or more rushing yards in 58.6% of games, which the market agrees with at 59¢. What the market does not price is where those yards come: a quarterback who keeps it that often inside the 10 scores some of the time, and New England's receivers are down to Brown, DeMario Douglas, Efton Chism III and Kyle Williams with Doubs and Mack Hollins on injured reserve. The 20¢ price pays four to one on a bet the Sims make a seven-to-three dog.
What has to happen
New England reaches the red zone twice and Maye keeps one. The Sims give him two or more touchdowns in 4.5% of games at 2¢, underpriced but a lottery ticket, not the bet.
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | YES on Drake Maye scores a TD | 20¢ (+400) | 30.4% in the Sims; 8.9¢ of edge, the widest gap on the board |
| SKIP | NO on Drake Maye scores a TD | 81¢ (-426) | 69.6% in the Sims; 12.9¢ against you |
| SKIP | YES on Drake Maye scores 2+ TDs | 2¢ (+4900) | 4.5% in the Sims; 2¢ of edge on a lottery ticket |
Burden At A Third
Luther Burden III scores a TD · 33¢ (+203) on Kalshi · the Sims have it at 40.0%
What I asked: "How often does Luther Burden III score a touchdown?"
The card from 8:11 a.m. CT Wednesday, the 3:08 a.m. Sims run against the live Kalshi price. Tap it to ask the same question and see the current number.
Burden leads the Bears with 31 catches for 361 yards in six games, and Sunday, with Caleb Williams back, he caught all eight of his targets for 95 yards. His one touchdown came from Case Keenum against Philadelphia. The market prices him at a third to score and the Sims make him the likeliest Bear through the air at 40.0%; D'Andre Swift is likelier at 51.7% but costs 59¢. Chicago averages 25 points, Williams targeted Burden more than anyone on his return, and the Sims give the Bears a passing touchdown in most games; Burden catches the plurality of them. The 33¢ price is 5.3¢ of edge with the fee in.
What has to happen
Chicago scores three times and one of them is a throw. Williams had one touchdown pass Sunday, to Colston Loveland; Burden had the targets.
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | YES on Luther Burden III scores a TD | 33¢ (+203) | 40.0% in the Sims; 5.3¢ of edge, the likeliest Bear through the air |
| SKIP | YES on Rome Odunze scores a TD | 34¢ (+194) | 32.2% in the Sims; 3.3¢ against you, the same price for eight points less |
| SKIP | YES on Colston Loveland scores a TD | 34¢ (+194) | 28.9% in the Sims; 6.6¢ against you, priced off Sunday's catch |
Fade Stevenson
NO on Rhamondre Stevenson scores a TD · 54¢ (-117) on Kalshi · the Sims have it at 61.2%
What I asked: "How often does Rhamondre Stevenson score a touchdown?"
The card from 8:11 a.m. CT Wednesday, the 3:08 a.m. Sims run against the live Kalshi price; the card prices the YES, and the bet is the other side. Tap it to ask the same question and see the current number.
This is a fade of the price, not the player. Stevenson has two touchdowns in six games, one each in Weeks 4 and 5, and the market prices him at 47¢ to score Thursday, close to a coin flip. The Sims give him 38.8%, because New England's carries go three ways: TreVeyon Henderson has had 16 and 14 in a game, Corey Kiner has a role of his own, and Maye keeps it near the goal line himself, which is the first section of this page. The NO at 54¢ is 5.5¢ of edge, and it pays in every Patriots game where the touchdowns go to Maye, Hunter Henry or a receiver.
What has to happen
Nothing unusual. New England scores twice, one through the air and one on a keeper or a Henderson carry, and Stevenson's night is 14 carries between the 20s.
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | NO on Rhamondre Stevenson scores a TD | 54¢ (-117) | 61.2% in the Sims; 5.5¢ of edge |
| ALSO | NO on Hunter Henry scores a TD | 73¢ (-270) | 79.0% in the Sims; 4.8¢ of edge, a tight end with scores in each of the last two games priced for a third |
| SKIP | YES on Rhamondre Stevenson scores a TD | 47¢ (+113) | 38.8% in the Sims; 9.9¢ against you |
Kyle Williams At 11 Cents
Kyle Williams scores a TD · 11¢ (+809) on Kalshi · the Sims have it at 17.8%
What I asked: "How often does Kyle Williams score a touchdown?"
The card from 8:11 a.m. CT Wednesday, the 3:08 a.m. Sims run against the live Kalshi price. Tap it to ask the same question and see the current number.
The long shot on the page. Williams, in his second season, has six catches in five games, and three of them came against Las Vegas for 91 yards and his one touchdown. The market prices him at 11¢ because the targets have been one or two a game. The Sims price him at 17.8% because the targets are about to change: Doubs and Hollins are on injured reserve, Brown is questionable, and someone has to run the routes. At eight to one, 6.1¢ of edge is the best payout on the board, and it is the one bet here that lives on a depth chart that could still move before kickoff. Check the inactives.
What has to happen
Brown sits or plays hurt, Williams plays most of the snaps, and one of Maye's downfield throws finds him. The Sims give New England a passing touchdown in most games; Williams catches one in about one of six.
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy small | YES on Kyle Williams scores a TD | 11¢ (+809) | 17.8% in the Sims; 6.1¢ of edge at eight to one, the depth-chart bet |
| Fair | YES on DeMario Douglas scores a TD | 23¢ (+335) | 23.9% in the Sims; priced to the decimal, the Patriot receiver to own if you want one |
| Fair | YES on A.J. Brown scores a TD | 41¢ (+144) | 41.1% in the Sims if he plays; questionable, no edge either way |
My Take
- Buy YES on Drake Maye scores a TD at 20¢ (+400). 30.4% in the Sims, 8.9¢ of edge, the widest gap on the board: the keeper in a red zone short of receivers.
- Buy NO on Rhamondre Stevenson scores a TD at 54¢ (-117). 61.2% in the Sims, 5.5¢ of edge; a three-way backfield and a quarterback who keeps it.
- Buy YES on Luther Burden III scores a TD at 33¢ (+203). 40.0% in the Sims, 5.3¢ of edge; the likeliest Bear through the air with his quarterback back.
- Buy a small YES on Kyle Williams scores a TD at 11¢ (+809). 17.8% in the Sims, 6.1¢ of edge at eight to one; the depth-chart bet, so check the inactives.
The Maye and Stevenson legs are the same story from two sides, so size them as one idea. D'Andre Swift at 59¢ against 51.7% and Colston Loveland at 34¢ against 28.9% cost more than the Sims say; the Hunter Henry fade at 73¢ against 79.0% is the fifth bet if you want one.
Prices here are Kalshi asks and every edge is figured after Kalshi's taker fee. For how that fee compares with a sportsbook's cut, see Kalshi fees vs. sportsbook vig.
Betting it on DraftKings, FanDuel or Polymarket instead?Maye's touchdown and the other three are priced in sportsbook odds on the DraftKings Parlay Simulator and the FanDuel Parlay Simulator, from the same 10,000 Sims, and the Polymarket Combo Simulator has Maye at 21¢ on Wednesday's board.
Every Week 7 game with Sims is in the free Kalshi Combo Simulator. Pick a game, type the final score you expect, and it prices the touchdowns and props for that script.
Prices: Kalshi asks, Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2026, 8:08 a.m. CT; every edge is figured after the taker fee. The four cards are 8:11 to 8:12 a.m. CT captures. Sims run Wednesday, 3:08 a.m. CT, before the final injury report. Injury statuses from ESPN's Wednesday game report and roster feed; rosters, box scores and game logs from ESPN. Check the inactives before you buy. These are market prices and estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
More on this: Thursday Night Football Picks: Maye Completes 22 · Seahawks vs Broncos Anytime TD Picks: Seven In Five Games · Texans vs Jaguars Anytime TD Picks: Fade Woody Marks · Eagles vs Jaguars Anytime TD Picks: The 27-Cent Dive · Ask the Sims Wins, NFL Week 6
