Jaxon Smith-Njigba has seven touchdowns in five games, and Kalshi prices his Thursday night touchdown at 48.7¢ with the fee in. On Tuesday the Sims scored him in 52.3% of games against a Denver secondary without Pat Surtain II or Riley Moss. On Wednesday ESPN lists Surtain doubtful, Moss questionable and Smith-Njigba himself questionable with an ankle, and the Sims trimmed him to 49.5%. A fair price on a receiver who may not play.
That is the touchdown board in one line: the scorers are priced right or better, and the edges are on the other side, where the market still pays a receiver's price for a back who does not get the goal line and a Denver receiver the Sims score once in five.
Each pick below starts with the question I typed into Ask the Sims on Wednesday morning and the card it sent back: the Sims' answer, the Kalshi price beside it, and a verdict on the price. The same four markets are on the DraftKings and FanDuel parlay simulators in sportsbook odds. Inactives post Thursday around 6:45 p.m. ET; every price gets re-stamped after them, and Smith-Njigba's status is the first thing to check.
What moved since Tuesday (Wednesday, 6:20 a.m. CT Sims): Smith-Njigba 52.3% to 49.5% at an unchanged 48.7¢. Bo Nix's touchdown, Tuesday's second card, fell from 21.8% to 16.4% against 18.0¢ and comes off; a fade of Courtland Sutton replaces it. Jaylen Waddle 29.6% to 28.6% while his price rose 2¢ to 28.4¢, fair now. The RJ Harvey fade held: 80.2% against 78.2¢.
From the Kalshi Combo Simulator on Stokastic. Tap the image to open it on Seahawks at Broncos.
Smith-Njigba At Even Money
Jaxon Smith-Njigba scores a TD · 48.7¢ (+105) on Kalshi · the Sims have it at 49.5%, and he is questionable
What I asked: "How often does Jaxon Smith-Njigba score a touchdown?"
The answer card from Ask the Sims in the Kalshi Combo Simulator, Wednesday morning: 49.5% of 10,000 Sims against 48.7¢, a fair price. Tap the image above to ask your own question about this game.
Smith-Njigba has 37 catches for 583 yards and seven scores through five games, more than a third of Seattle's receptions, with 8, 9, 10, 5 and 5 catches. The Sims still make him the likeliest scorer in the game. What changed is the other side of the ball: with Surtain doubtful rather than out, the throws that were free on Tuesday are contested again, and the Sims took three points off his touchdown rate.
What has to happen
He plays, and Seattle reaches the red zone three times. The ankle is the whole question. If he is active Thursday, this is a fair coin flip that pays a hair better than even on the likeliest scorer in the game. If he is out, the card is gone and the 6:45 p.m. ET inactives decide it.
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy small, if active | YES on Jaxon Smith-Njigba scores a TD | 48.7¢ (+105) | 49.5% in the Sims; fair, the likeliest scorer, questionable with an ankle |
| SKIP | NO on Jaxon Smith-Njigba scores a TD | 55.7¢ (-126) | 50.5% in the Sims; 5¢ against you |
| SKIP | YES on Jaxon Smith-Njigba scores 2+ TDs | 12.7¢ (+685) | 13.6% in the Sims; fair, the blowout script |
Fade Courtland Sutton
NO on Courtland Sutton scores a TD · 76.3¢ (-322) on Kalshi · the Sims have it at 80.2%
What I asked: "How often does Courtland Sutton score a touchdown?"
The answer card from Ask the Sims, Wednesday morning. Tap it to ask your own question about this game.
This is a fade of the price, not the player. Sutton is Denver's biggest receiver and the market prices him like its red-zone target, 27¢ to score. The Sims give him 19.8%. Jaylen Waddle leads the Broncos with 18 catches and 204 yards and takes the quick throws, Evan Engram and Marvin Mims take the rest, and Denver's offense averages 19.4 points, so there are few red-zone trips to go around. The NO at 76.3¢ is 4¢ of edge, the best price on the touchdown board.
What has to happen
Nothing unusual. Denver scores twice, one of them a Dobbins run or a Nix keeper, and Sutton's night is yards between the 20s against a Seattle secondary that allows 166.8 passing yards a game.
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | NO on Courtland Sutton scores a TD | 76.3¢ (-322) | 80.2% in the Sims; 4¢ of edge |
| SKIP | YES on Courtland Sutton scores a TD | 27.3¢ (+266) | 19.8% in the Sims; 8¢ against you |
| PASS | YES on Bo Nix scores a TD | 18.0¢ (+456) | 16.4% in the Sims; Tuesday's card, 2¢ against you now |
Waddle At A Quarter
Jaylen Waddle scores a TD · 28.4¢ (+252) on Kalshi · the Sims have it at 28.6%
What I asked: "How often does Jaylen Waddle score a touchdown?"
The answer card from Ask the Sims, Wednesday morning. Tap it to ask your own question about this game.
Waddle leads Denver with 18 catches for 204 yards and one touchdown, and his targets run 3, 10, 7, 6, 5 by game. The Sims make him the likeliest Bronco to score through the air, 28.6%, and the market caught up overnight: the price rose from 26.3¢ to 28.4¢ and the edge is gone. He stays on the page because the comparison is the point. Waddle and Sutton cost about the same, 28¢ and 27¢, and the Sims score Waddle nine points more often. If you want a Denver receiver, it is this one, at a fair price, not Sutton at a bad one.
What has to happen
A Denver passing touchdown at all. The Sims give Nix a touchdown pass in 72.4% of games, and Waddle catches a plurality of them.
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair | YES on Jaylen Waddle scores a TD | 28.4¢ (+252) | 28.6% in the Sims; priced to the decimal, the Denver receiver to own if you want one |
| SKIP | YES on Evan Engram scores a TD | 14.8¢ (+574) | 12.6% in the Sims; 2¢ against you |
| SKIP | YES on Troy Franklin scores a TD | 11.7¢ (+756) | 13.4% in the Sims; 2¢ of edge, a lottery ticket |
Fade RJ Harvey
NO on RJ Harvey scores a TD · 78.2¢ (-359) on Kalshi · the Sims have it at 80.2%
What I asked: "How often does RJ Harvey score a touchdown?"
The answer card from Ask the Sims, Wednesday morning. Tap it to ask your own question about this game.
Same idea, other backfield. Harvey is Denver's pass-catching back, 10 receptions against San Francisco, three carries against the Chargers, and the market has him at 25¢ to score, a receiver's price.
The Sims give him 19.8%, because J.K. Dobbins has 64 of the carries and the goal-line work, and Harvey's touches are the kind that happen between the 20s. The NO at 78.2¢ is 2¢ of edge, and it pays in every Denver game that ends with a Dobbins plunge or no Broncos rushing score at all.
What has to happen
Nothing unusual. Dobbins keeps the short-yardage carries, as he has all season, and Harvey's work stays in the flat.
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | NO on RJ Harvey scores a TD | 78.2¢ (-359) | 80.2% in the Sims; 2¢ of edge |
| SKIP | YES on RJ Harvey scores a TD | 25.3¢ (+295) | 19.8% in the Sims; 6¢ against you |
| SKIP | YES on J.K. Dobbins scores a TD | 35.6¢ (+181) | 31.7% in the Sims; 4¢ against you, the market's favorite Bronco |
My Take
- Buy NO on Courtland Sutton scores a TD at 76.3¢ (-322). The best price on the board: a receiver priced for the red zone the Sims give once in five.
- Buy NO on RJ Harvey scores a TD at 78.2¢ (-359), the price is a receiving back's, the goal line is Dobbins'.
- Buy a small YES on Jaxon Smith-Njigba scores a TD at 48.7¢ (+105) only if he is active. Fair, the likeliest scorer, and an ankle on the report.
- Jaylen Waddle at 28.4¢ is fair. The Denver receiver to own if you want one; the Bo Nix touchdown came off the card.
Emanuel Wilson (45.7¢ against 40.5%), Dobbins (35.6¢ against 31.7%) and AJ Barner (22.2¢ against 17.4%) all cost more than the Sims say.
Every price here includes Kalshi's taker fee. For how that fee compares with a sportsbook's cut, see Kalshi fees vs. sportsbook vig.
Betting it on DraftKings or FanDuel instead?Smith-Njigba's touchdown and the other three are priced in sportsbook odds on the DraftKings Parlay Simulator and the FanDuel Parlay Simulator, from the same 10,000 Sims.
Every Week 6 game with Sims is in the free Kalshi Combo Simulator. Pick a game, type the final score you expect, and it prices the touchdowns and props for that script.
Prices: Kalshi, Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2026, 7:30 a.m. CT for the four cards, as shown on them; the Also, Skip and Pass rows from the 6:20 a.m. CT board. Injury statuses, rosters and game logs from ESPN, Wednesday, Oct. 14; check Thursday's inactives before you buy. These are market prices and estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
