What I asked: "How often does Sam Darnold have 19+ completions?"
The answer: 59.8% of 10,000 Sims, against a 53.7¢ price on Kalshi. Six cents of edge, the widest gap on Darnold's passing board.
The answer card from Ask the Sims in the Kalshi Combo Simulator, Wednesday morning. It counts the Sims and lists the nearest Kalshi lines. Tap it to ask your own Darnold question.
Kalshi has Sam Darnold's 19-completion line at 52¢ for Thursday night in Denver, up from 50¢ on Tuesday. The Sims, 10,000 runs of the game with Pat Surtain II doubtful and Riley Moss questionable, clear it 59.8% of the time. That is the one Darnold number that did not move when Denver's corners went from out to doubtful on Wednesday's ESPN report, and it is wide for a reason the game log hides from the market.
Disagree with the Sims?Ask them your version: Darnold at a different line, Darnold if Seattle leads at half, Darnold if Denver covers. Every answer comes from the same 10,000 runs, priced against Kalshi, on the free Kalshi Combo Simulator.
Three Rungs, One Pays
Kalshi lists three completion lines for Darnold. The middle one is the bet.
| Darnold completions | Tuesday Sims | Wednesday Sims | Kalshi Wednesday | Gap now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14+ | 91.2% | 91.5% | 91.6¢ | priced to the decimal |
| 19+ | 58.9% | 59.8% | 53.7¢ | 6¢ of edge |
| 24+ | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.0¢ | fair |
The 14-completion line is priced as a near-lock and the Sims agree, so there is nothing in it. The 24-completion line is priced to the decimal. Everything the market got wrong sits on the middle rung: a line trading just above even money that the Sims say lands three games in five.
Why The Market Missed It
Darnold's three starts this season read 31 of 45 against Washington, 13 of 22 against the Chargers and 18 of 29 against the 49ers. He has cleared 19 once, and if you set the line from the log, 52¢ is right.
The Sims do not price the log. They price Thursday's matchup, and three things in it push the completion count up. Denver's two starting corners are on the report, Surtain doubtful and Moss questionable, so some of the throws that would be contested become catches. The Broncos allow 220 passing yards a game already, with Surtain in the lineup. And the Sims have the game within a touchdown in nearly half the runs, which keeps Seattle throwing into the fourth quarter instead of running out a lead.
Twenty-five attempts at Darnold's 65% completion rate is 16 completions and 30 attempts is 19.5, and the Sims give him 25 attempts in 85.4% of games and 30 in 55.8%. The completions sit between the two attempt lines, which is why the 19 line holds at 60% while the 30-attempt line slipped to a cent of edge.
The 24-completion card from Tuesday's session, unchanged on Wednesday, with its own Kalshi price. The top rung is fair; the money is a rung lower.
The Yards Line Turned
The attempts and the yards do not tell the same story anymore. Darnold 25+ attempts is 78.2¢ against 85.4%, 7¢ of edge and the headline bet on the picks page. But 200+ passing yards fell from 68.0% on Tuesday to 64.0% on Wednesday against 65.6¢, so the yards line is 2¢ against you now, and 250+ at 33.5¢ against 32.1% is a cent against. With the corners upgraded, the Sims took the long completions off the board and kept the short ones. More catches, fewer yards per catch. That is a completions bet, not a yards bet.
The other side of the headline line is the price of betting on a quiet Seattle night: under 19 completions costs 51.8¢ for something the Sims give 40.2%. That is 12¢ against you, the worst price on Darnold's board.
What The Pairs Say
Darnold 19+ completions with Darnold 25+ attempts is one bet twice, so do not pair them. The pair the Sims like is 19+ completions with a Seahawks win: Seattle wins 57.3% of the Sims and the completions come in most of those wins, so the two legs move together. Pairing the completions with a Broncos win fights the script; the Sims still clear 19 in the Denver wins, but less often, because Seattle wins the games where Darnold throws 30 times.
My Take
- Buy YES on Sam Darnold 19+ completions at 53.7¢ (-116). 59.8% in the Sims, 6¢ of edge, the widest gap on Darnold's board, and the one number that held when the injury report changed.
- The 14 and 24 lines are fair. Nothing to do on either rung.
- The yards lines are off. 200+ and 250+ both trade above the Sims since Wednesday's rebuild.
- If the inactives change again, the number changes. Surtain is doubtful and Moss questionable as of Wednesday; if both play, ask again before you buy. The number moves with the lineup, as Jalen Hurts' did in London last week.
- The touchdown board's edges are the fades: Courtland Sutton and RJ Harvey, on the anytime TD page.
On a sportsbook or Polymarket?The same Darnold lines are priced in sportsbook odds on the DraftKings Parlay Simulator and the FanDuel Parlay Simulator, and in Polymarket's cents on the Polymarket Combo Simulator.
Prices: Kalshi board, Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2026, 7:30 a.m. CT for the headline card; the ladder and the yards lines from the 6:20 a.m. CT board; the 24-completion card from Tuesday. Injury statuses and game logs from ESPN, Wednesday, Oct. 14. Hero photo: Sam Darnold with the Seahawks in 2025, by the Tennessee Titans, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons. These are market prices and estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
