San Francisco is a 7.5-point favorite over Washington for Monday night at Levi's Stadium on the DraftKings line ESPN shows, 5-0 against 1-3-1, with a total of 52.5. The player prices on Kalshi do not read like a 7.5-point game. Jayden Daniels's completion line sits at 53¢ as if Washington will run its normal offense, Brock Purdy's 275-yard line sits at 36¢ as if San Francisco will sit on the ball, and Brandin Cooks is priced at 27¢ to score because he scored last week.
The Stokastic Sims, 10,000 runs of Commanders at 49ers from Sunday morning, have San Francisco winning 74.5% of the time and by 7 or more in 54.4%. That is a game Washington chases and San Francisco keeps throwing in, and it moves three player lines at once: Daniels completes 19 passes in 63.7% of runs, Purdy clears 275 yards in 43.8%, and Cooks scores in 16.1%. The spread knows the script; the props have not caught up to it.
Each bet below starts with the question I typed into Ask the Sims on Sunday morning and the card it sent back: the Sims' answer, the Kalshi price beside it, and a verdict on the price. I will ask all four again after the inactives post Monday, around 6:45 p.m. ET, and anything the Sims stop backing comes off the card.
Daniels Completes 19
YES on Jayden Daniels 19+ completions · 54.6¢ (-120) on Kalshi · 63.7% in the Sims
What I asked: "How often does Jayden Daniels have 19+ completions?"
The answer card from Ask the Sims in the Kalshi Combo Simulator, Sunday, about 7:30 a.m. CT: 63.7% against 54.7¢ on the card, 54.6¢ in the 8:05 a.m. table, 9.1¢ of edge per contract. Tap the card to ask your own question about this game.
The log is against this one. Daniels has played three games this season on ESPN's log, Weeks 1, 2 and 5, and his completions read 18, 11 and 17: against Philadelphia, Dallas and the Giants, never 19. The market has the line at 53¢ for that reason. The Sims clear 19 in 63.7% of games, the widest gap on either side of this board, and the reason is the opponent, not the quarterback. San Francisco wins 74.5% of the 10,000 runs and leads by a touchdown or more in most of them, and a trailing offense throws: the Sims have Daniels at 31 or more attempts in 51.6% of games, against the 34, 17 and 25 he has thrown so far. Nineteen completions on 31 throws is 61%, under his 68% rate against the Giants.
The Dallas game is the one that breaks this bet, 11 completions on 17 attempts in a 37-20 loss where Washington stopped throwing, and the Sims give that script about one game in three. Stefon Diggs is questionable with a hamstring on Washington's Saturday report at ESPN; the number moves with the inactives, and this is the leg I will re-ask first Monday evening.
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | YES on Jayden Daniels 19+ completions | 54.6¢ (-120) | 19+ in 63.7% of the Sims; 9.1¢ of edge, the widest on the board |
| ALSO | YES on Jayden Daniels 24+ completions | 21.4¢ (+367) | 26.2% in the Sims; 4.8¢ of edge on the full chase script |
| SKIP | YES on Jayden Daniels 31+ pass attempts | 50.7¢ (-103) | 51.6% in the Sims; 0.9¢ of edge, priced to the script already |
Purdy Clears 275
YES on Brock Purdy 275+ passing yards · 37.7¢ (+165) on Kalshi · 43.8% in the Sims
What I asked: "How often does Brock Purdy have 275+ passing yards?"
The answer card from Ask the Sims, Sunday, about 7:30 a.m. CT: 43.8% against 37.6¢ on the card, 37.7¢ in the 8:05 a.m. table, 6.1¢ of edge per contract. Tap the card to ask your own question about this game.
The other side of the same script. A 7.5-point favorite is supposed to run the clock, and the market prices Purdy's 275 line at 36¢ as if San Francisco will. Purdy's log says the 49ers score through the air whatever the spread: two clearances of 275 in five wins, 287 against Miami and 297 against Arizona, and 13 touchdown passes. The Sims clear 275 in 43.8% of games and 250 in 58.4%, because a 49ers offense averaging 30.8 points a game this season keeps throwing until the fourth quarter, and Washington's defense has not shortened anyone's afternoon.
The 275 line pays +165 for something the Sims give better than two games in five, 6.1¢ of edge. The 250 line is the same bet at near even money with 5.7¢, and the pair of them is the choice: the long shot or the cushion, not both.
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | YES on Brock Purdy 275+ passing yards | 37.7¢ (+165) | 275+ in 43.8% of the Sims; 6.1¢ of edge at better than 3-to-2 |
| ALSO | YES on Brock Purdy 250+ passing yards | 52.7¢ (-111) | 250+ in 58.4% of the Sims; 5.7¢ of edge with a cushion |
| ALSO | YES on Brock Purdy 300+ passing yards | 24.5¢ (+308) | 29.9% in the Sims; 5.4¢ of edge at four-to-one, the simulator's long shot, small if at all |
Fade Brandin Cooks
NO on Brandin Cooks scores a TD · 75.9¢ (-315) on Kalshi · 83.9% in the Sims
What I asked: "How often does Brandin Cooks score a touchdown?"
The answer card from Ask the Sims, Sunday, about 7:30 a.m. CT: the YES side is 16.1% against 28.4¢ on the card, so this page buys the NO, 75.9¢ on the 8:05 a.m. board against 83.9%, 8.0¢ of edge per contract. Tap the card to ask your own question about this game.
This is a fade of the price, not the player. Cooks has two games on ESPN's log for San Francisco: no catches on one target against Denver, then one catch for 7 yards against Seattle last Sunday, and the catch was a touchdown. The market has him at 27¢ to score, which is a box score with a price on it. Three targets in two games is not a scorer's workload, and the 49ers' touchdowns already have owners: Christian McCaffrey has a rushing touchdown in four straight games, George Kittle has four in five, and Mike Evans caught a touchdown against Seattle on 10 targets. The Sims score Cooks in 16.1% of games, one in six.
The NO at 75.9¢ lays three to one to collect 8.0¢ of edge, so it is a leg to hold, not to build around. The same idea on the other sideline pays better: Rachaad White, Washington's lead back with Jeremy McNichols on injured reserve, is priced at 41¢ to score on 7-carry games, and the Sims have him at 32.4%, so the NO at 61.5¢ is 6.1¢ of edge at a friendlier price.
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy small | NO on Brandin Cooks scores a TD | 75.9¢ (-315) | No touchdown in 83.9% of the Sims; 8.0¢ of edge, last week's catch priced in |
| SKIP | YES on Brandin Cooks scores a TD | 27.9¢ (+258) | 16.1% in the Sims; 11.8¢ against you |
| ALSO | NO on Rachaad White scores a TD | 61.5¢ (-160) | No touchdown in 67.6% of the Sims; 6.1¢ of edge on a 7-carry back |
Daniels At +238
Jayden Daniels scores a TD · 29.6¢ (+238) on Kalshi · 33.2% in the Sims
What I asked: "How often does Jayden Daniels score a touchdown?"
The answer card from Ask the Sims, Sunday, about 7:30 a.m. CT: 33.2% against 29.4¢ on the card, 29.6¢ in the 8:05 a.m. table, 3.6¢ of edge per contract. Tap the card to ask your own question about this game.
The one Washington scorer priced under the Sims is the quarterback. Daniels ran 9 times for 103 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants last Sunday, 7 for 69 against Dallas and 5 for 31 against Philadelphia, and the Sims give him 30 or more rushing yards in 65.1% of games. Washington's touchdowns in the Sims are split thin, and Daniels at 33.2% is the likeliest Commander to score, a point ahead of Rachaad White and Terry McLaurin. A quarterback who runs from the 5 in a game his team is chasing is the scorer the chase script makes, and the market has him at 28¢.
The +238 is 3.6¢ of edge, the thinnest of the four, and the leg to pair with the Daniels completions rather than hold alone: both pay when Washington has the ball a lot in the second half.
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | YES on Jayden Daniels scores a TD | 29.6¢ (+238) | 33.2% in the Sims; 3.6¢ of edge, the likeliest Commander to score |
| SKIP | YES on Christian McCaffrey scores a TD | 71.6¢ (-252) | 66.9% in the Sims; 4.7¢ against you, four straight games priced in |
| SKIP | YES on Mike Evans scores a TD | 54.7¢ (-121) | 48.6% in the Sims; 6.1¢ against you, the Seattle game priced in; questionable on ESPN's roster feed |
Run your own Commanders-49ers script. The Kalshi Combo Simulator plays the game 10,000 times and prices any combo you build next to the price on Kalshi, free, no login.
Building it on DraftKings or FanDuel instead?The free DraftKings Parlay Simulator and FanDuel Parlay Simulator on Stokastic.com price these same props from the same 10,000 Sims, and the Polymarket Combo Simulator does the same for Polymarket's lines.
My Take
One script, four bets, ranked:
- Buy YES on Jayden Daniels 19+ completions at 54.6¢ (-120). The widest gap on the board, 9.1¢: the log says 18, 11 and 17, the spread says Washington throws all night, and the Sims side with the spread.
- Buy small NO on Brandin Cooks scores a TD at 75.9¢ (-315). 8.0¢ of edge on a receiver with three targets in two games, priced on last week's 7-yard catch.
- Buy YES on Brock Purdy 275+ passing yards at 37.7¢ (+165). 6.1¢ of edge at better than 3-to-2 on an offense that throws whatever the spread says; the 250 line is the same bet with a cushion.
- Buy YES on Jayden Daniels scores a TD at 29.6¢ (+238). 3.6¢ of edge on the likeliest Commander to score, and the other half of the completions bet.
The two Daniels legs are one idea, so build them together or hold one; the Purdy over and the Cooks fade are the San Francisco half of the same script and pair with each other. The game itself is not the bet: San Francisco at 80.3¢ against 74.5% in the Sims costs more than the Sims say, Washington at 23.3¢ against 25.6% is 2.2¢ of edge on a 3-to-1 shot, and the 52.5 total is priced where the Sims have it. Nick Bosa is out with a calf on San Francisco's Saturday report at ESPN, which helps Daniels's throw count and hurts nothing on this page.
Loughy's Commanders vs 49ers Monday night picks take the game side; this page takes the props. If you see this game going differently, run your own script in the free Kalshi Combo Simulator.
Prices: Kalshi, Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026, 8:05 a.m. CT in the tables, with the taker fee included; the cards show the board at about 7:30 a.m. CT, when I asked; the Also and Skip rows from the same 8:05 pull. Sims run Sunday, 5:49 a.m. CT. Game logs and injury statuses from ESPN, read Sunday morning. Kickoff Monday, Oct. 19, 8:15 p.m. ET at Levi's Stadium. Prices move; check Kalshi before you buy. These are market prices and estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
More on this: Sunday Night Football Picks: The Market Is Pricing Last Week · Thursday Night Football Picks: Surtain Out, Darnold Throws · Texans vs Jaguars Kalshi Picks: Houston Throws In London · C.J. Stroud Pass Attempts in London: 31 Is The Floor · Sam Darnold Completions Thursday: 19 Is The Number
