David Montgomery is out for Sunday's 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff at Wembley with a groin injury, and Jalen Pitre is out with a sprained AC joint, on Houston's injury report at ESPN, dated Thursday. Tank Dell went to injured reserve on Thursday. Houston's run game was already the thinnest part of the offense, 79 rushing yards a game through five, and now its lead back sits.
Stokastic's Sims, 10,000 runs of Texans at Jaguars from Friday afternoon, have Jacksonville winning 55.1% of the time and C.J. Stroud throwing more often than Kalshi's prices say, for fewer yards than Kalshi's prices say. That is the whole script, and it pays twice.
Each bet below starts with the question I typed into Ask the Sims on Friday afternoon and the card it sent back: the Sims' answer, the Kalshi price beside it, and a verdict on the price. I will ask all four again Saturday morning and after the inactives post Sunday, around 8:00 a.m. ET, and anything the Sims stop backing comes off the card.
Stroud Throws 31 Times
YES on C.J. Stroud 31+ pass attempts · 74.4¢ (-291) on Kalshi · 79.4% in the Sims
What I asked: "How often does C.J. Stroud have 31+ pass attempts?"
The answer card from Ask the Sims in the Kalshi Combo Simulator, Friday, 4:21 p.m. CT: 79.4% against 74.4¢, 5.0¢ of edge per contract. Tap the card to ask your own question about this game.
Stroud has thrown 38, 55, 27, 31 and 34 times in Houston's five games, so he has cleared 31 in four of them, and the one miss was the 27-attempt game against Indianapolis, a 19-17 loss. The Sims clear 31 in 79.4% of games and put his median at 36 attempts, because a close, low-scoring game is the one script that kept him under 31, and the Sims do not read London that way. Houston averages 79 rushing yards a game, the lead back is out, and Jacksonville is favored by 2.5 on ESPN's line with Houston trailing in most of the 10,000 runs.
The market has this at 74¢, a 4-in-5 shot priced like a 3-in-4 one. Thirty-one is where the edge and the payout meet: the 36 line below pays better and carries a cent of edge, and the 41 line is a thin book priced 2¢ above the Sims.
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | YES on C.J. Stroud 31+ pass attempts | 74.4¢ (-291) | 31+ in 79.4% of the Sims; 5.0¢ of edge, the widest on the board |
| SKIP | YES on C.J. Stroud 41+ pass attempts | 30.4¢ (+229) | 28.4% in the Sims; 2¢ against you on a thin book, the blowout-trail script only |
Stroud Stays Under 275
NO on C.J. Stroud 275+ passing yards · 63.6¢ (-175) on Kalshi · 70.6% in the Sims
What I asked: "How often does C.J. Stroud have 275+ passing yards?"
The answer card from Ask the Sims, Friday, 4:21 p.m. CT: the YES side is 29.4% against 40.7¢, so this page buys the NO at 63.6¢ against 70.6%. Tap the card to ask your own question about this game.
More throws, fewer yards. Stroud averages 280 passing yards a game, and he has cleared 275 twice, 353 against Cincinnati on 55 attempts and 347 against Dallas. The Sims give him a median of 239 and clear 275 in only 29.4% of games, because the attempts come from a short, trailing offense rather than a long one: Dell is on injured reserve, Nico Collins draws the coverage, and Jacksonville's defense has six interceptions in five games, which keeps a quarterback throwing underneath.
Kalshi prices the 275 line at 40.7¢ to hit, which is the market remembering Dallas and Cincinnati. The NO at 63.6¢ is 7.0¢ of edge. The 250 line is the same idea at nearly even money, 56.5% against 49.7¢.
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | NO on C.J. Stroud 275+ passing yards | 63.6¢ (-175) | Under 275 in 70.6% of the Sims; 7.0¢ of edge |
| ALSO | NO on C.J. Stroud 250+ passing yards | 49.7¢ (+101) | Under 250 in 56.5% of the Sims; 6.8¢ of edge at even money |
| SKIP | NO on C.J. Stroud 300+ passing yards | 76.3¢ (-322) | Under 300 in 82.3% of the Sims; 6.0¢ of edge, three-to-one risk |
Stroud Throws 36 Times
YES on C.J. Stroud 36+ pass attempts · 53.7¢ (-116) on Kalshi · 54.7% in the Sims
What I asked: "How often does C.J. Stroud have 36+ pass attempts?"
The answer card from Ask the Sims, Friday, 4:21 p.m. CT: 54.7% against 53.7¢, 1.0¢ of edge per contract. Tap the card to ask your own question about this game.
The same bet one rung up, at a price near even money. Stroud has cleared 36 twice in five games, and the Sims clear it in 54.7%, the median sitting at 36. Thirty-six attempts is what a trailing Houston offense without a run game looks like in the fourth quarter, and the Sims have Houston trailing in most runs.
This is the leg to pair with the 31-attempt leg rather than stack on it: the two move together, so hold one at the fat price and one at the fair one, not both at full size. The 23-completion line, 49.0% against 54.7¢, is 5.7¢ against you and stays off; Stroud's completion rate is 64%, which puts 36 attempts at 23 completions on the nose, and the Sims will not pay for a coin flip.
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LEAN | YES on C.J. Stroud 36+ pass attempts | 53.7¢ (-116) | 36+ in 54.7% of the Sims; 1.0¢ of edge |
| PASS | YES on C.J. Stroud 23+ completions | 54.7¢ (-121) | 49.0% in the Sims; 5.7¢ against you |
| SKIP | YES on C.J. Stroud 18+ completions | 84.9¢ (-562) | 83.2% in the Sims; 1.7¢ against you |
Lawrence Stays Under 250
NO on Trevor Lawrence 250+ passing yards · 64.6¢ (-182) on Kalshi · 67.4% in the Sims
What I asked: "How often does Trevor Lawrence have 250+ passing yards?"
The answer card from Ask the Sims, Friday, 4:21 p.m. CT: the YES side is 32.6% against 40.7¢, so this page leans to the NO at 64.6¢ against 67.4%. Tap the card to ask your own question about this game.
The other quarterback, the same direction. Lawrence has 245, 189, 182, 227 and 331 passing yards this season, one clearance of 250, the 331 against Philadelphia last Sunday when Jacksonville threw 39 times. The Sims put his median at 222 and clear 250 in 32.6% of games, because Jacksonville is the team with a run game, 114 rushing yards a game on 28 carries, and a favorite with a run game throws less in the second half, not more.
The market has 250 at 40.7¢ to hit after the Philadelphia game. The NO at 64.6¢ is 2.8¢ of edge, the thinnest leg on the card and a lean, not a buy. The 225 line is nearer a coin flip, 51.8% against 49.7¢.
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LEAN | NO on Trevor Lawrence 250+ passing yards | 64.6¢ (-182) | Under 250 in 67.4% of the Sims; 2.8¢ of edge |
| SKIP | NO on Trevor Lawrence 225+ passing yards | 49.7¢ (+101) | Under 225 in 51.8% of the Sims; 2.1¢ of edge at a coin flip |
| PASS | YES on Jacksonville wins | 58.7¢ (-142) | 55.1% in the Sims; 3.6¢ against you |
Run your own Texans-Jaguars script. The Kalshi Combo Simulator plays the game 10,000 times and prices any combo you build next to the price on Kalshi, free, no login.
Building it on DraftKings or FanDuel instead?The free DraftKings Parlay Simulator and FanDuel Parlay Simulator on Stokastic.com price these same props from the same 10,000 Sims, and the Polymarket Combo Simulator does the same for Polymarket's lines.
My Take
One script, four bets, ranked:
- Buy YES on C.J. Stroud 31+ pass attempts at 74.4¢ (-291). The widest gap on the board, 5.0¢: four clearances in five games, a median of 36 in the Sims, and no run game to take the ball out of his hands.
- Buy NO on C.J. Stroud 275+ passing yards at 63.6¢ (-175). 7.0¢ of edge on the other half of the same script; the attempts are short ones, and the Sims put his median at 239.
- Lean YES on C.J. Stroud 36+ pass attempts at 53.7¢ (-116). 1.0¢ of edge at near even money after the afternoon Sims trimmed it; hold this one or the 31-attempt leg, not both.
- Lean NO on Trevor Lawrence 250+ passing yards at 64.6¢ (-182). 2.8¢ of edge on a favorite with a run game; the thinnest leg here, and the first to come off if Saturday's Sims move.
The attempts legs and the yards leg are one idea, so the combo to build is one attempts leg with the yards leg, and the Sims price that pair above what Kalshi charges for it. The game itself is not the bet: Jacksonville at 58.7¢ against 55.1% in the Sims and Houston at 45.7¢ against 44.9% both cost more than the Sims say. Loughy's Texans vs Jaguars London picks take the game side; this page takes the props.
If you see this game going differently, run your own script in the free Kalshi Combo Simulator.
Prices: Kalshi, Friday, Oct. 16, 2026, 4:21 p.m. CT, as shown on the four cards, including the taker fee; the Also, Skip and Pass rows from the same pull. Sims run Friday, 3:50 p.m. CT. Injury statuses from ESPN's reports, read Friday. Kickoff Sunday, Oct. 18, 9:30 a.m. ET at Wembley Stadium. Prices move; check Kalshi before you buy.
More on this: Texans vs Jaguars Anytime TD Picks: Fade Woody Marks · C.J. Stroud Pass Attempts in London: 31 Is The Floor · Texans vs Jaguars London Picks: The Jags Got Lucky · NFL Week 6 Predictions
