Updated October 29, 2026
Josh Sweat's next team is still the Arizona Cardinals unless they trade him before the NFL trade deadline on November 10 or cut him before December 1, and Kalshi traders rate him staying as the likelier outcome. The teams named as fits for the edge rusher are the Dallas Cowboys, Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers, and Arizona is reported to want a high Day 2 pick for him, meaning an early pick on the draft's second day, which covers rounds two and three.
Arizona went from "no interest" to a reported asking price
Sweat signed a four-year, $76.4 million contract with Arizona in March 2025 reuniting with Jonathan Gannon, his defensive coordinator with the Eagles. He arrived off Philadelphia's Super Bowl win, in which he had 2.5 sacks. He had 12 sacks in 2025 and two through Arizona's first seven games of 2026, by ESPN's count. Arizona went 3-14 in his first season and fired Gannon on January 5.
Sweat asked for a trade after the firing and the front office told him no, PHNX's Johnny Venerable said on the PHNX Cardinals podcast, as Cardinals Wire reported in March. General manager Monti Ossenfort was flat about it at training camp in August: "We have no interest in trading Josh." Sweat spent camp on the physically-unable-to-perform list after an offseason procedure and came off it a couple of weeks before the opener, Ossenfort said in September.
Arizona lost five of its first seven games. In mid-October, the front office traded Marvin Harrison Jr., the fourth overall pick in 2024, to Houston for draft picks, a 2027 second-rounder among them.
On October 28, Venerable reported that Arizona knows Sweat has a trade market and is believed to be seeking a high Day 2 pick. The same day, ESPN's Jeremy Fowler and Matt Bowen ranked Sweat third among their top 25 trade candidates and gave him a 40% chance of being traded. They listed the Cowboys, Bears and 49ers as fits, and an NFC executive told Fowler a move to Dallas made a lot of sense for a player of Sweat's profile.
Sweat's contract could slow a deal. ESPN's Adam Schefter reported on October 4 that Sweat wants a new one, and Sweat said after that day's game, "I don't know where he got that from." Fowler still listed the contract as something that could complicate negotiations, and the deal's last two seasons, 2027 and 2028, are not fully locked in, Sports Illustrated's Cardinals site reported.
How the Kalshi contracts pay out
| Market | Josh Sweat's next team before Dec 1, 2026 (Kalshi) |
| Price for Yes on Arizona (he stays) | 63 cents, about a two in three chance |
| Price for Yes on Dallas | 10 cents, about a one in 10 chance |
| Price for Yes on Chicago | 6 cents, about a one in 17 chance |
| Price for Yes on San Francisco | 6 cents, about a one in 17 chance |
| As of | October 29, 2026 |
The Arizona contract pays if Sweat is still a Cardinal on December 1, and a contract extension with Arizona keeps it alive rather than ending the market early, under Kalshi's rules. Every other team pays only if the league makes his move there official before December 1, and "Retires / No Team" pays if he officially retires before December 1 or has no team on that date. NFL trading stops at 4 p.m. Eastern on November 10 and does not reopen until March 11, 2027. Once the deadline passes, he could change teams before the market closes only if Arizona waived him.
Kalshi listed the market the same day as the asking-price report, and in its first day only four outcomes traded at all: Arizona, Dallas, Chicago and San Francisco. The three buyers' prices come from thin early trading, so one report can move them a long way.
Why he could still be a Cardinal on December 1
The asking price comes from a reporter's sources, not from the team, and Ossenfort's own answer in August was no. A high Day 2 pick is a steep price for a pass rusher coming off an offseason procedure with two sacks through seven games, and any buyer also inherits the contract question Fowler raised. San Francisco plays in Arizona's division, and the 49ers already gave up a 2027 fourth-round pick for defensive tackle DeForest Buckner on October 27. ESPN's estimate still left him more likely to stay than go.
What seven AI models said without seeing the price
We asked seven AI models where Sweat will be on December 1, giving them the research but not the price. Their chances that he is still in Arizona ran from 50% to 67%, with the middle answer at 60%, and every one of them put Dallas first among the buyers, ahead of Chicago and San Francisco. The range sits close to the price, so it works as a check on the facts above, not a different read.
What would change the picture before November 10
- A reported agreement. A trade report would move the prices well before the deal is official.
- A new contract in Arizona. An extension would answer the contract question Fowler raised without a trade.
- Arizona's game at Dallas. The Cardinals play the Cowboys in Dallas on November 1, nine days before the deadline.
- The three named teams going elsewhere. A Dallas, Chicago or San Francisco trade for a different pass rusher would shrink the field of buyers.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Josh Sweat photo by All-Pro Reels, licensed CC BY-SA 2.0; photo cropped, toned, and composited.
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Market price from Kalshi as of the date above. Prices change constantly. Nothing here is a prediction of fact, and it is not financial advice.
