Jaxon Smith-Njigba found the end zone on Sunday Night Football to turn Sunday into a near-wash, and after a 2-0 Thursday, I'll take a near-wash every day of the week. That's still nicely green over the long haul. Now it's Monday night, and I have to be upfront with you: this is the thinnest board I've seen all season.
The Cowboys (2-4) visit the Eagles (2-4) at Lincoln Financial Field, Dallas is laying 4.5, and the total sits at 44.5. Philadelphia is down to Tanner McKee at quarterback with Jalen Hurts out for the season, and DeVonta Smith is out, too. I ran every touchdown contract in this game through Stokastic's Ask the Sims, which plays each game 10,000 times, snap by snap, with a final score and a full box score for every one, and the market got this one right. Every Yes touchdown contract on Kalshi grades out as slightly negative, the partner books aren't any better, and even the Sims' favorite touchdown combos come up a hair short.
So tonight is one small play and a smaller sweetener, on the Dallas side. The Sims hand us the game script, too: Dallas wins 6,666 of 10,000 games, and the default projection is Cowboys 24, Eagles 20.
The Play: Dallas's Target Hog, 42¢ (+129 Effective)
CeeDee Lamb is the Cowboys' passing game. He has 71 targets, a 29.2% target share, and 35.9% of the team's air yards for a 0.69 WOPR. He's at 48 catches for 577 yards and four touchdowns, with 0.35 EPA per target, a 55% success rate and a 9.6-yard aDOT, and he's coming off a 19-target game after seeing 21 in Week 4.
The red-zone usage is why he's the pick. Lamb has 12 of Dallas' 38 red-zone targets, the most on the team (Ryan Flournoy is next with eight), plus eight end-zone targets, and two of his four touchdowns came from the 3-yard line or closer.
The matchup helps. Philadelphia ranks 25th in EPA per dropback allowed, and cornerback Michael Carter is out, with Jakorian Bennett (knee) questionable. Opponents have scored touchdowns on 59% of their red-zone trips against the Eagles.
The risk is Javonte Williams. He's the Sims' most likely touchdown scorer in this game at 57.4%, and he owns the goal line, with 17 of Dallas' 20 carries inside the 10 and seven rushing touchdowns. George Pickens and Flournoy also take their share of the red-zone looks.
Ask the Sims has Lamb scoring in 41.8% of its 10,000 games (4,179 of them, about +139), against a Kalshi price of 43.7¢ once you add the fee. That's a 3.6¢ shortfall, and I'm telling you about it because it's the truth: this one is a small bet on a player, not a big bet on an edge. In the 6,666 games Dallas wins, he scores 46.6% of the time, and his best pairing is Dak Prescott having a big night: a Lamb touchdown plus Prescott throwing three or more touchdowns hit together 67% more often than their separate prices imply.
Kalshi's 42¢ works out to +129 after the fee, essentially tied with DraftKings at +130, with BetMGM, Caesars and FanDuel at +125. There are about 525,800 contracts sitting at 42¢, so size isn't an issue.
The Sweetener: He Scores First, 12¢ (+685 Effective)
If Lamb is going to score, there's a decent chance it comes early, since he's the one Dallas looks for when the drive stalls in the red zone. He scored the Cowboys' first touchdown back in Week 2. The Sims have him scoring the game's first touchdown in 11.1% of their games (1,108 of 10,000, about +801), third behind Williams (17.9%) and Saquon Barkley (13.2%).
Kalshi's first-touchdown market has him at 12¢, which works out to +685 after the fee. DraftKings, Caesars and FanDuel are a touch better at +700, so take the +700 if you have the books. This one is a 0.1-unit sprinkle, nothing more.
The Fee Math
Always a reminder for the fine folks newer to playing on Kalshi: they charge a taker fee of 7% of price times one-minus-price, rounded to the cent. In plain English, for Lamb's 42¢ anytime contract you're adding on 1.71¢, so you're really paying 43.71¢. On his 12¢ first-touchdown contract it's 0.74¢, so 12.74¢. Kalshi rounds up at settlement, so treat every effective number here as a ceiling and not a floor.
Also, these are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. And just like at a sportsbook, this is a constantly moving market, so all prices are subject to change. Check actives and inactives 90 minutes before kickoff (especially Barkley, who's questionable with a hamstring injury), make sure you're getting the best price possible, and enjoy the show.
The Official Card
The anytime contract sits on the Cowboys at Eagles touchdown tab on Kalshi, and the first-touchdown contract sits on the 1st Touchdown tab. Prices are accurate as of Monday, October 26, 2026, 4:40 PM ET. The effective column accounts for the taker fee, and the Sims column is the probability from Ask the Sims:
| Contract | Price | After fee | Effective | Sims | Best book | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb Yes 1+ TD | 42¢ | 43.71¢ | +129 | 41.8% | +130 (DraftKings) | 0.25u |
| CeeDee Lamb 1st TD | 12¢ | 12.74¢ | +685 | 11.1% | +700 (DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel) | 0.1u |
Both markets are deep. Lamb's anytime contract has traded about 81,000 with about 525,800 at the ask, and his first-touchdown contract has traded about 63,700 with about 299,700 at the ask.
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Final Thoughts
Some nights the Sims hand you a gift, and some nights they tell you the market already did its homework. Tonight is the second kind, which is why the stakes are tiny. Lamb's anytime ticket misses about six times out of 10, and the first-touchdown sprinkle misses nearly nine times out of 10.
As always: no chasing, and no hero sizing on a night without any noticeable edge. Trade smart, trade responsibly, and enjoy Monday night.
— Lindy
More on this: Thursday Night Football Picks: Maye Completes 22 · Monday Night Football Picks: What A 7.5-Point Spread Hides · Patriots vs Bears Anytime TD Picks: Maye At 20 Cents · Sunday Night Football Picks: The Market Is Pricing Last Week · Texans vs Jaguars Kalshi Picks: Houston Throws In London
