Updated October 24, 2026
The Butterfield Bermuda Championship odds after 36 holes point to an open finish: no golfer on Kalshi's winner board was priced better than a long shot going into the weekend. Corey Conners led that board from one shot back, with Eric Cole and Seamus Power close behind and co-leaders Kensei Hirata and Chandler Blanchet further down, while a gale warning covered Sunday's final round at Port Royal.
A Dozen Players Within Two Shots, Before the Wind
Hirata and Blanchet share the lead at 13 under. Hirata got there with a bogey-free 64 on Friday, and Blanchet added a 67 to his opening 62, the lowest full round of the first two days (PGA Tour). Power, Cole, Conners, Ben Silverman and Danny Walker are one back at 12 under, and David Skinns, Denny McCarthy, Greyson Sigg, Austin Smotherman and Ben Kohles are two back at 11 under (ESPN leaderboard). The cut fell at 5 under with 72 players through, and defending champion Adam Schenk missed it.
Port Royal's strongest defense is wind, and the Tour's second-round recap noted it had not blown at full strength through two rounds. The weekend forecast is different. The Bermuda Weather Service's Saturday morning forecast carried a gale warning from early Sunday morning through Sunday evening, with strong east-northeasterly winds increasing to strong to gale force and gusts to gale force at times, especially in elevated and exposed spots.
The winning score here has swung by 12 shots across seven editions. Brendon Todd and Camilo Villegas both won at 24 under, while Schenk won at 12 under in 2025 (Golf News Net). By the page's arithmetic, Hirata and Blanchet are already a shot past Schenk's winning total with 36 holes to play.
The board's preference for the names one shot back matches their résumés. Conners, making his first start at this event, is the highest-ranked player in the field at No. 61 in the world. Hirata is a PGA Tour rookie and a six-time winner in Japan who earned his card through the Korn Ferry Tour. He arrived 176th in the FedExCup Fall standings, with Blanchet 114th (Golf Today). Before Friday, Hirata had never shared the lead after any round of his rookie season.
Power is the only former Bermuda champion within four shots of the lead; he won here in 2022 at 19 under, back when he ranked among the top 50 in the world. Cole's history here runs the other way: he missed the cut in both of his earlier starts at Port Royal (PGA Tour).
What Kalshi's Winner Board Pays
| Market | Butterfield Bermuda Championship Winner (Kalshi) |
| Price for Yes | Corey Conners, 13 cents, about a one in eight chance (the top price on the board) |
| As of | October 24, 2026 |
What Yes cost on each board after 36 holes (the ask, in cents):
| Golfer | After 36 holes | Win | Top 5 | Top 10 | Top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Conners | T3, -12 | 13 | 48 | 67 | 84 |
| Eric Cole | T3, -12 | 12 | 43 | 62 | 82 |
| Seamus Power | T3, -12 | 11 | 44 | 62 | 82 |
| Chandler Blanchet | T1, -13 | 7.9 | 35 | 53 | 73 |
| Austin Smotherman | T8, -11 | 6.6 | 33 | 53 | 74 |
| Ben Kohles | T8, -11 | 6.6 | 32 | 53 | 74 |
| Denny McCarthy | T8, -11 | 5.9 | 29 | 52 | 75 |
| Ben Silverman | T3, -12 | 5.1 | 27 | 46 | 70 |
| Danny Walker | T3, -12 | 5.1 | 27 | 48 | 68 |
| Kensei Hirata | T1, -13 | 4.7 | 25 | 43 | 67 |
| David Skinns | T8, -11 | 2.4 | 17 | 34 | 57 |
| Greyson Sigg | T8, -11 | no contract | 22 | 42 | 65 |
Every other player still in the field cost 2.5 cents or less to win. The winner board listed no contract for Greyson Sigg. The winner board had traded about 17.5 million contracts. The top-20 board, the busiest of the three finishing-position boards, had traded about 87,000.
Each winner contract pays $1 if that golfer wins and nothing if he doesn't, so its price in cents reads as a percent chance. Kalshi's rules for the board split a withdrawal by market only when it comes before a golfer tees off: his winner contract settles No, while his finishing-position contracts settle at fair market value, a price Kalshi sets, rather than all or nothing. Everyone left in this field has already teed off, so by the page's reading a weekend withdrawal simply leaves that golfer short of a win or a tier. The winner contracts are one per golfer and only one can pay, so by the page's reading, a win by a golfer with no contract on the board would settle every listed winner contract No.
Top 5, Top 10 and Top 20 for the PGA DFS Crowd
For a PGA DFS player, the finishing-position boards are the closest thing Kalshi lists to a placement projection: each price reads as the chance of a top-5, top-10 or top-20 finish. Ties count, so a share of 10th settles a top-10 contract Yes. Those boards trade a sliver of what the winner board does, and the gap between the best offer to buy and the best offer to sell is often several cents wide, so one order can move a price. Stokastic's PGA DFS picks carry the lineup side, and the Kalshi golf picks page covers Kalshi's other golf markets.
Why Hirata or Blanchet Could Still Hold On
Strokes banked in calm air count the same as strokes made in a gale. If Sunday's wind arrives as forecast, the players behind have to make up ground in the hardest conditions of the week, while the leaders keep every stroke they banked on Thursday and Friday. After Friday's round, Blanchet said he thought the wind would ask players to be solid at creative shots, the kind he had just pulled off for a birdie on the 18th.
A Check From Three AI Models
We asked three AI models to price the whole 72-player field from the leaderboard and the forecast, without showing them any prices. They put Hirata's chance of winning between about 6% and 14%, Blanchet's between 7% and 13%, and Conners's between 4% and 16%. Against Kalshi's board, they rated Hirata higher and rated Smotherman and Kohles, both at 11 under, well lower. The range is a check on the facts above, and its widest split was on Conners.
What Changes the Picture This Weekend
- Saturday's third round, after two days of mild wind that Golfweek expected to pick up considerably over the weekend. The final group of Hirata, Blanchet and Power goes off the 1st tee at 10:51 a.m. ET (Golfweek).
- Any change to Sunday's schedule the PGA Tour makes in response to the gale warning, from moved tee times to a later finish.
- A winner contract for Greyson Sigg, if Kalshi lists one.
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Market price from Kalshi as of the date above. Prices change constantly. Nothing here is a prediction of fact, and it is not financial advice.
