Thursday Night Football Picks: Maye Completes 22

Caleb Williams is back. He missed three games with a torn hamstring, returned Sunday against Atlanta and completed 30 of 36 for 305 yards, and the Bears are 4-2 with him as a 3-point home favorite on ESPN's line for Thursday night at Soldier Field. New England is 4-2 too, on three straight wins, and arrives thin at receiver: Romeo Doubs went on injured reserve Tuesday with the shoulder he hurt on a 42-yard touchdown catch against the Jets, Mack Hollins has been on injured reserve since Oct. 10, and A.J. Brown, four weeks out with a high ankle sprain before his three-drop return Sunday, carries a questionable tag on the roster feed as of Tuesday evening.

Stokastic's Sims, 10,000 runs of Thursday's 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff, have Chicago winning 55.1% of the time, a median Bears win by 3 and a median total of 51, so they see the game the way the market does. Where they disagree with Kalshi is Drake Maye, who the Sims have completing more passes than the prices say, and Rhamondre Stevenson, who the Sims have handing too many carries to TreVeyon Henderson and Corey Kiner to reach 50 yards.

Each bet below starts with the question I typed into Ask the Sims on Wednesday morning and the card it sent back: the Sims' answer, the Kalshi price beside it, and a verdict on the price. Ask the first one yourself here; it opens with the question already typed.

Maye Completes 22

YES on Drake Maye 22+ completions · 45¢ (+122) on Kalshi · 54.0% in the Sims

What I asked: "How often does Drake Maye have 22+ completions?"

The card from 8:10 a.m. CT Wednesday, the 3:08 a.m. Sims run against the live Kalshi price. The edge line on the card is the simulator's own figure; the edges in this article are the Sims number minus the fee-in cost in each table. Tap the card to ask the same question and see the current number.

Kalshi prices 22 completions as a coin flip that pays a little better than even. The Sims make it 54 in 100, and the gap is 7.3¢ per contract once the fee is in, the widest on the non-touchdown board.

Maye has 22 or more in three of six games, 23 against Seattle, 22 against Buffalo and 26 against Las Vegas; the misses came in September, when New England threw less. The Sims put him at 32 or more attempts in 56% of games against a Chicago offense that averages 25 points, and at his 63.9% completion rate 32 attempts is 20 completions, 35 is 22. The bet is that this game asks him to throw into the fourth quarter, and the next section is the same bet one rung earlier. Thin receivers cut against it some; the Sims still have Hunter Henry, DeMario Douglas and Stevenson catching the short ones.

Stevenson Stays Under 50

NO on Rhamondre Stevenson 50+ rushing yards · 58¢ (-138) on Kalshi · under 50 in 65.8% of the Sims

What I asked: "How often does Rhamondre Stevenson rush for under 50 yards?"

The card from 8:11 a.m. CT Wednesday, the 3:08 a.m. Sims run against the live Kalshi price. Tap it to ask the same question and see the current number.

Stevenson has been under 50 rushing yards in four of six games: 43, 22, 47 and 36, with 51 against Seattle and 64 against Las Vegas the two clearances. He has not had more than 14 carries since the opener, because New England splits the backfield three ways: Henderson had 16 and 14 carries in two games, and Corey Kiner has a role of his own. The market still prices 50 yards at 43¢, close to a coin flip. The Sims give it 34%.

The other reason is the line in front of him. Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown are doubtful on Wednesday's report, Morgan Moses is questionable and Marcus Bryant went on injured reserve, so New England may start Thursday with three new bodies up front. The NO at 58¢ is 6.2¢ of edge per contract.

Maye Throws 32 Times

YES on Drake Maye 32+ pass attempts · 50¢ (+100) on Kalshi · 56.3% in the Sims

This is the completions bet one rung earlier, and it is priced at even money. Maye has 32 or more attempts in four of six games, 33, 37, 34 and 32, and the two misses were the 22-attempt win over Pittsburgh and the 25-attempt loss at Jacksonville. The Sims clear 32 in 56.3% of games, 4.6¢ of edge, because Chicago scores 25 a game and a Patriots offense chasing points throws. The 27-attempt line is the same idea at 77¢ with 3.3¢ of edge, more to risk for less. Buy one of the two Maye legs, not both; they move together.

Caleb Under 275

NO on Caleb Williams 275+ passing yards · 68¢ (-212) on Kalshi · under 275 in 71.3% of the Sims

Williams threw for 305 on Sunday in his first game back, and the market has priced the next one off it: 275 yards is 36¢ to clear. His other two starts this season were 269 against Carolina and 138 against Minnesota, the game he got hurt in. The Sims put him under 275 in 71.3% of games, under 250 in 56.9% and under 34 attempts in 57.9%, because Chicago runs it with D'Andre Swift and leads often enough in the Sims to sit on it. The unders from 225 to 300 carry 2 to 4¢ of edge; 300 has the most at 78¢, and 275 is the one I'd buy because it pays more for one fewer long drive.

Run your own Patriots-Bears script. The Kalshi Combo Simulator plays the game 10,000 times and prices any combo you build next to the price on Kalshi, free, no login.

Building it on DraftKings, FanDuel or Polymarket instead?

The free DraftKings Parlay Simulator and FanDuel Parlay Simulator on Stokastic.com price these same props from the same 10,000 Sims, and the Polymarket Combo Simulator prices them in Polymarket's cents, where Maye 22+ completions is 47¢ on Wednesday's board.