Josh Jacobs is out for Sunday night at Lambeau, on the commissioner's exempt list, and the market did what it does with a missing lead back: it moved his touchdowns to the next name. MarShawn Lloyd is priced at 54.7¢ to score, after two touchdowns against Chicago last Sunday. On the other sideline, Javonte Williams is priced at 65.6¢ to score, after six touchdowns in five games. Those are last week's box scores with a price on them.
Stokastic's Sims, 10,000 runs of Cowboys at Packers from Saturday morning, have Green Bay winning 51.2% of the time, a coin flip, with a median of 27 points a side. They score Lloyd in 39.2% of games and Williams in 51.3%, and they put both backfields well under what Kalshi charges. The touchdowns in this game go through the air, and the one scorer priced under the Sims is Christian Watson.
Each bet below starts with the question I typed into Ask the Sims on Saturday morning and the card it sent back: the Sims' answer, the Kalshi price beside it, and a verdict on the price. I will ask all four again after the inactives post Sunday, around 6:50 p.m. ET, and anything the Sims stop backing comes off the card.
Fade MarShawn Lloyd
NO on MarShawn Lloyd scores a TD · 49.7¢ (+101) on Kalshi · 60.8% in the Sims
What I asked: "How often does MarShawn Lloyd score a touchdown?"
The answer card from Ask the Sims in the Kalshi Combo Simulator, Saturday, 4:39 a.m. CT board: the YES side is 39.2% against 54.7¢, so this page buys the NO at 49.7¢ against 60.8%, 11.1¢ of edge per contract. Tap the card to ask your own question about this game.
This is a fade of the price, not the player. Lloyd scored twice against the Bears on 10 carries for 31 yards, and before that he had one touchdown in four games, a 6-yard catch against the Jets, on carries of 13, 6, 4 and 7. With Jacobs out he is the Packers' lead back by default, and the Sims give him a median of 12 carries, a workload split with Kaleb Johnson and Pierre Strong Jr. rather than Jacobs's. Green Bay averages 60 rushing yards a game this season and 20.8 points, and the Sims put the Packers' median at 27 with the touchdowns coming from Jordan Love, who has thrown two in every game.
Twelve carries at 3 yards each is not a goal-line workload, and that is the whole case. The Sims score Lloyd in 39.2% of games. Kalshi charges 54.7¢ to say he does, a lead back's price for a committee back. The NO at 49.7¢ pays better than even money on something the Sims give three games in five, 11.1¢ of edge and the widest gap among the four picks.
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | NO on MarShawn Lloyd scores a TD | 49.7¢ (+101) | No touchdown in 60.8% of the Sims; 11.1¢ of edge, the widest among the four picks |
| SKIP | YES on MarShawn Lloyd scores a TD | 54.7¢ (-121) | 39.2% in the Sims; 15.5¢ against you, last week's price |
| ALSO | YES on Kaleb Johnson scores a TD | 13.8¢ (+625) | 22.7% in the Sims; 8.9¢ of edge on the other half of the committee |
Fade Javonte Williams
NO on Javonte Williams scores a TD · 38.6¢ (+159) on Kalshi · 48.7% in the Sims
What I asked: "How often does Javonte Williams score a touchdown?"
The answer card from Ask the Sims, Saturday, 4:39 a.m. CT board: the YES side is 51.3% against 65.6¢, so this page buys the NO at 38.6¢ against 48.7%, 10.1¢ of edge per contract. Tap the card to ask your own question about this game.
Williams is the scorer the market loves, and the log says why: six touchdowns in five games, including three against Houston, and at least one in each of the last three. He is Dallas's goal-line back, 17 carries a game in the Sims, and the Sims still score him in only 51.3% of games, because Dallas's touchdowns are spread across CeeDee Lamb (46.4%), George Pickens (43.3%) and Williams, and a 27-point median is three touchdowns and two field goals, not four scores for one back.
The market has Williams at 65.6¢ to score, which prices him like a 2-in-3 shot. The Sims say a coin flip. The NO at 38.6¢ pays better than 3-to-2 on a bet the Sims give 48.7%, 10.1¢ of edge. This one loses when Dallas runs it in twice from the 2, the Houston game, and the Sims give that script about one game in six.
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | NO on Javonte Williams scores a TD | 38.6¢ (+159) | No touchdown in 48.7% of the Sims; 10.1¢ of edge |
| SKIP | YES on Javonte Williams scores a TD | 65.6¢ (-191) | 51.3% in the Sims; 14.3¢ against you, the hot-hand price |
| SKIP | YES on Javonte Williams 2+ TDs | 25.3¢ (+295) | 15.6% in the Sims; the Houston game priced as a one-in-four |
Watson At +124
Christian Watson scores a TD · 44.7¢ (+124) on Kalshi · 49.0% in the Sims
What I asked: "How often does Christian Watson score a touchdown?"
The answer card from Ask the Sims, Saturday, 4:39 a.m. CT board: 49.0% against 44.7¢, 4.3¢ of edge per contract. Tap the card to ask your own question about this game.
If the Packers' touchdowns do not go to Lloyd, they go to Watson. He has six touchdowns in five games, two against Minnesota, two against Chicago, and 143 and 147 yards in those two, and with Jayden Reed on injured reserve and Skyy Moore out he is the deep target in an offense that averages 282 passing yards a game. The Sims make him the likeliest Packer to score, 49.0%, ahead of Matthew Golden at 41.4% and Tucker Kraft at 34.8%, and the market has him at 44.7¢, a cheaper price than Lloyd's.
That is the pair this page is built on: NO on the back at 49.7¢ and YES on the receiver at 44.7¢, two bets on one idea, that Green Bay scores through the air. Dallas's secondary is the reason the idea holds: Cobie Durant is out and Joey Porter Jr. is questionable with an ankle on Friday's report, and Love has thrown for 387, 312 and 367 yards in three of his five games.
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | YES on Christian Watson scores a TD | 44.7¢ (+124) | 49.0% in the Sims; 4.3¢ of edge, the likeliest Packer to score |
| Fair | YES on Matthew Golden scores a TD | 39.6¢ (+153) | 41.4% in the Sims; 1.8¢ of edge, the second Packer |
| SKIP | YES on Christian Watson 2+ TDs | 10.6¢ (+843) | 13.2% in the Sims; 2.6¢ of edge, the Chicago game priced as a long shot |
Dak Stays Under 275
NO on Dak Prescott 275+ passing yards · 50.7¢ (-103) on Kalshi · 56.6% in the Sims
What I asked: "How often does Dak Prescott have 275+ passing yards?"
The answer card from Ask the Sims, Saturday, 4:39 a.m. CT board: the YES side is 43.4% against 53.7¢, so this page buys the NO at 50.7¢ against 56.6%, 5.9¢ of edge per contract. Tap the card to ask your own question about this game.
The log is against this one, so read it before you buy it. Prescott has thrown for 175, 279, 276, 335 and 316 yards, four clearances of 275 in five games, and the market has the line at 53.7¢ to hit for that reason. The Sims put his median at 263 and clear 275 in 43.4% of games. The difference is the game script: Green Bay is a 1.5-point favorite on ESPN's line and wins 51.2% of the Sims, so Dallas is not chasing, and a Dallas offense that is not chasing hands the ball to Williams 17 times and throws 36. Thirty-six attempts at Prescott's 7.2 yards a throw is about 260 yards, within a few of the Sims' 263.
The under at 50.7¢ is 5.9¢ of edge at even money. The 300 line is the same bet with a cushion, 70.1% against 64.6¢, and the 250 line is a longer shot you are paid to take, 42.4% against 38.6¢.
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | NO on Dak Prescott 275+ passing yards | 50.7¢ (-103) | Under 275 in 56.6% of the Sims; 5.9¢ of edge at even money |
| ALSO | NO on Dak Prescott 300+ passing yards | 64.6¢ (-182) | Under 300 in 70.1% of the Sims; 5.5¢ of edge with a cushion |
| SKIP | YES on Jordan Love 22+ completions | 54.7¢ (-121) | 57.9% in the Sims; 3.2¢ of edge, the other quarterback's throw count |
Run your own Cowboys-Packers script. The Kalshi Combo Simulator plays the game 10,000 times and prices any combo you build next to the price on Kalshi, free, no login.
Building it on DraftKings or FanDuel instead?The free DraftKings Parlay Simulator and FanDuel Parlay Simulator on Stokastic.com price these same props from the same 10,000 Sims, and the Polymarket Combo Simulator does the same for Polymarket's lines.
My Take
One script, four bets, ranked:
- Buy NO on MarShawn Lloyd scores a TD at 49.7¢ (+101). The widest gap among the four picks, 11.1¢: a committee back priced like a lead back the week after his two-touchdown game.
- Buy NO on Javonte Williams scores a TD at 38.6¢ (+159). 10.1¢ of edge on the hottest scorer in the league; the Sims make him a coin flip, the market makes him 2-in-3.
- Buy NO on Dak Prescott 275+ passing yards at 50.7¢ (-103). 5.9¢ of edge at even money in a game Dallas is not chasing; the 300 line is the same bet with a cushion.
- Buy YES on Christian Watson scores a TD at 44.7¢ (+124). 4.3¢ of edge on the Packer the Sims like most, and the other half of the Lloyd fade.
The two fades are one idea each and the Watson leg is the other side of the Lloyd fade, so build Lloyd with Watson, or Williams with the Prescott under, rather than all four on one ticket. The game itself is not the bet: Green Bay at 53.7¢ against 51.2% in the Sims costs more than the Sims say, and the 53.5 total is priced where the Sims have it. The widest number on the board, Pierre Strong Jr. under 3 receptions at 62.7¢ against 90.8%, is a market with almost no trades on a back with one game of work; I am leaving it to the simulator.
Loughy's Cowboys vs Packers Sunday night picks take the game side; this page takes the props. If you see this game going differently, run your own script in the free Kalshi Combo Simulator.
Prices: Kalshi, Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026, 4:39 a.m. CT, as shown on the four cards, including the taker fee; the Also, Skip and Fair rows from the same board. Sims run Saturday, 3:12 a.m. CT. Injury statuses from the Friday reports on ESPN. Kickoff Sunday, Oct. 18, 8:20 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field. Prices move; check Kalshi before you buy.
More on this: Cowboys vs Packers Sunday Night Picks: Was Green Bay Real? · Josh Jacobs Suspension: When He Plays Again · NFL Week 6 Predictions · Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers Anytime TD Picks
