Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday afternoon, October 14, 2026.
Kickoff: Sunday, October 18, 8:20 PM ET, Lambeau Field, NBC
Funny how fast things change. If this line came out before last week's games, Dallas is probably a 2.5 or 3-point favorite. Then the Cowboys got stomped at home by Tampa Bay and Green Bay destroyed Chicago, and now Dallas is the road dog. I don't fully buy it. I think this is a shootout that comes down to the wire: Cowboys +1.5.
How Often Does It Actually Happen?A betting line only tells you the price. The Sims play every game 10,000 times, so you see how often something actually happens and whether the price is worth paying. They're the same Sims behind the Stokastic.com DFS tools, where a subscriber won $1 million last week. In this game, the Sims like Dak Prescott under 300 passing yards: it hits in 67.6% of the Sims, and Kalshi charges 64.6¢. It works for DraftKings and FanDuel bets too. Tap a question and the Sims answer it, free, no login:
How often do the Cowboys win? · How often does George Pickens score? · Best 2-leg combo for this game
Tap the card for the full answer.
The Game Lines
| Bet | Kalshi (¢ ≈ % chance) | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Packers win by 2+ | 51¢ | Packers -1.5 |
| Over 53.5 points | 49¢ | 53.5 |
| Packers win | 54¢ | Packers -122 / Cowboys +102 |
One Week Changed Everything
Before last week, the Packers' résumé was an unimpressive win over Tampa Bay and a blowout loss to Atlanta. Dallas had played Baltimore close in a high-scoring loss it should have won, then won in Houston. Then Green Bay beat Chicago 31-7 behind Jordan Love's 369 yards, and Dallas lost 24-16 to the Buccaneers with Dak Prescott throwing two interceptions and his receivers dropping six passes.
I'm not convinced Green Bay can do that week over week. The Packers still averaged 3.0 yards a carry against the Bears, the pass blocking is still a serious issue, and Edgerrin Cooper is on injured reserve.
Dallas Gets Healthier
CeeDee Lamb (quad) should be fine. I believe DeMarvion Overshown is coming back, and Joey Porter Jr. should be back from his illness. I still don't trust this defense, which gave up 165 rushing yards to Bucky Irving. The Cowboys also played last Thursday, so they get extra rest coming into Lambeau. Last year this matchup ended 40-40, and the total is 53.5.
The Pick
Cowboys +1.5.On Kalshi, the Packers not winning by 2+ costs about 52¢.
A shootout that comes down to the wire, with Dallas on extended rest. I don't mind the moneyline here either.
Ask the Sims your own question about this game → Free, as many as you want, no login.
Injury Report
- CeeDee Lamb (DAL). Questionable (quad); expected to play.
- DeMarvion Overshown (DAL). Questionable (hamstring).
- Green Bay. Edgerrin Cooper (Achilles) and Jayden Reed (neck) are on injured reserve.
- Rest. Dallas has 10 days off the Thursday game.
My picks for the rest of Week 6 are in NFL Week 6 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero photo: All-Pro Reels via Wikimedia Commons (George Pickens Cowboys.jpg), CC BY-SA 4.0; cropped and toned.
More on this: Cowboys Playoff Odds Fell 11 Points In One Night · Buccaneers vs Cowboys TD Props: My Top Two Kalshi TNF Plays · Buccaneers vs Cowboys TD Parlay: Williams and Goodson Both Score · Bears vs Packers Picks: Ugly Enough To Bet · Buccaneers vs Cowboys Thursday Night Picks: Lay It With Dak
