Dave Loughran
Betting Expert & Host, OddsShopper
Dave Loughran ("Loughy") hosts OddsShopper’s sports betting shows and writes its NFL picks and player-prop pages, built on the same research: every book’s number and the data behind the pick. Follow him on X at @Loughy.
Articles by Dave Loughran
Bears vs Falcons Picks: Caleb Williams Is Back
Bears -3, total 50.5. Bears vs Falcons prediction for Week 6: Caleb Williams back at practice, Atlanta's late collapses, and why I'm laying the field goal.
Bills vs Raiders Picks: Buffalo's Short-Week Trap
Raiders +5.5, total 53.5. Bills vs Raiders prediction for Week 6: Buffalo on a short week after Monday night overtime, and why I'm taking the home dog.
Cardinals vs Rams Picks
Cardinals +12.5, total 51.5. Cardinals vs Rams prediction for Week 6: how often Arizona actually wins this game, and why I won't lay 12.5 in the division.
Chargers vs Chiefs Picks: Is Justin Herbert Broken?
Chargers +8.5, total 42.5. Chargers vs Chiefs prediction for Week 6: an 0-5 team, a favorite that rarely covers, and why I'm taking the points again.
Commanders vs 49ers Monday Night Picks: Dan Quinn's Blunder
Commanders +7.5, total 50.5. Commanders vs 49ers prediction for Monday Night Football in Week 6: Washington's blunder, an unbeaten 49ers team, and the hook.
Cowboys vs Packers Sunday Night Picks: Was Green Bay Real?
Cowboys +1.5, total 53.5. Cowboys vs Packers prediction for Sunday Night Football in Week 6: one week flipped this line, and why I'm taking Dallas.
Jets vs Patriots Picks: Is A.J. Brown Back?
Patriots -7, total 43.5. Jets vs Patriots prediction for Week 6: A.J. Brown's return, Drake Maye's best game, and why I'm laying seven at home.
NFL Week 6 Predictions for Every Game: Coaches Lose Games
Broncos +2.5, Patriots -7, Commanders +7.5. NFL Week 6 predictions and picks for every game, with the Kalshi price beside each line and all 14 broken down.
Panthers vs Eagles Picks: History Backs Carolina
Panthers -3.5, total 38.5. Panthers vs Eagles prediction for Week 6: Jalen Hurts is out with a blood clot, Tanner McKee starts, and why I'm on Carolina now.
Ravens vs Browns Picks: The Line Says Lamar Plays
Ravens -5.5, total 42.5. Ravens vs Browns prediction for Week 6: the line moved a point toward Lamar Jackson playing, and why my lean depends on him.
Saints vs Giants Picks: Why Are The Saints Favored?
Giants +1.5, total 45.5. Saints vs Giants prediction for Week 6: a broken Saints offense, Jameis Winston playing well, and why I'm taking the home dog.
Seahawks vs Broncos Thursday Night Picks: Surtain Is Out
Broncos +2.5, total 40.5. Seahawks vs Broncos prediction for Thursday Night Football: Pat Surtain II is out, Seattle's one-man offense, and why I'm on Denver.
Steelers vs Buccaneers Picks: Don't Buy Jalon Daniels Yet
Steelers -2.5, total 39.5. Steelers vs Buccaneers prediction for Week 6: the Bucs' win says more about Dallas, and why I'm laying it with Pittsburgh.
Texans vs Jaguars London Picks: The Jags Got Lucky
Texans +3, total 42.5. Texans vs Jaguars prediction for Week 6 in London: why staying overseas isn't an edge for Jacksonville, and why I'm taking the points.
Titans vs Colts Picks: Can Tennessee Score At All?
Colts -7, total 44.5. Titans vs Colts prediction for Week 6: the league's worst offense, a cover record that keeps getting worse, and why I'm laying seven.
Eagles vs Jaguars TD Parlay: Shipley, Rodriguez Both Score
Will Shipley and Chris Rodriguez Jr. to both score at 5.9 cents. The Eagles vs Jaguars TD parlay the Sims hit 9.2% of the time in London.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys TD Parlay: Williams and Goodson Both Score
Javonte Williams and Tyler Goodson to both score at 6.8 cents. The Buccaneers vs Cowboys TD parlay the Sims hit 13% of the time on Thursday Night Football.
Inside A Field Goal At Home: 49ers vs Seahawks Picks
Seahawks -2.5, total 46.5. 49ers vs Seahawks prediction and picks for Week 5: Brock Purdy, Seattle's defense, the injuries, and a lean on the home team.
Ugly Enough To Bet: Bears vs Packers Picks
Bears -3, total 45.5. Bears vs Packers prediction and picks for Week 5: a field goal at Lambeau, Chicago's run defense, and why I'm on the home dog.
Chase And Higgins Decide It: Bengals vs Dolphins Picks
Bengals -7, total 42.5. Bengals vs Dolphins prediction and picks for Week 5: Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins' status, the edges, and the lean on Miami.
Back The Bounce: Bills vs Rams Monday Night Picks
Rams -3, total 54.5. Bills vs Rams prediction and picks for Monday Night Football in Week 5: Josh Allen off a loss, the Rams' close wins, and the points.
Broncos vs Chargers Picks: Fourth Quarter Magic Runs Out
Broncos -3.5, total 42.5. Broncos vs Chargers prediction and picks for Week 5: Denver's fourth-quarter habit, an 0-4 Chargers team at home, and the points.
The Number Feels Fishy: Browns vs Jets Picks
Jets -2.5, total 39.5. Browns vs Jets prediction and picks for Week 5: Cleveland's three-game run, the Jets' struggles, and why the number says New York.
Lay It With Dak: Buccaneers vs Cowboys Thursday Night Picks
Cowboys -8.5, total 47.5. Buccaneers vs Cowboys prediction and picks for Thursday Night Football in Week 5: the lines, the edges, and why I'm laying it.
Sprinkle The Road Dog: Colts vs Steelers Picks
Steelers -2.5, total 44.5. Colts vs Steelers prediction and picks for Week 5: Pittsburgh's problems, a Colts team better than its record, and the moneyline.
As Gross As It Feels: Eagles vs Jaguars London Picks
Jaguars -7, total 42.5. Eagles vs Jaguars prediction and picks for the Week 5 London game: the injuries, where the edges are, and why the points are worth it.
Fragile Favorite: Giants vs Commanders Picks
Commanders -3.5, total 43.5. Giants vs Commanders prediction and picks for Week 5: Jayden Daniels' return, Jameis Winston and Malik Nabers, and the points.
The Secondary Is A Sieve: Lions vs Cardinals Picks
Lions -5.5, total 54.5. Lions vs Cardinals prediction and picks for Week 5: Detroit's defense, Arizona's passing game, and why the home dog is the play.
NFL Week 5 Predictions for Every Game: Records Lie
Cowboys -8.5, Eagles +7.5, Saints +114. NFL Week 5 predictions and picks for every game, with the Kalshi price beside each line and a breakdown of all 15.
Built To Force Turnovers: Raiders vs Patriots Picks
Patriots -3.5, total 45.5. Raiders vs Patriots prediction and picks for Week 5: Las Vegas' takeaways against Drake Maye's turnovers, and the points I'd take.
Ravens vs Falcons Sunday Night Picks: Lamar Watch
Falcons -3.5, total 43.5. Ravens vs Falcons prediction and picks for Sunday Night Football in Week 5: Lamar Jackson's ankle, Bijan Robinson, and the Falcons.
The Winless Bowl: Texans vs Titans Picks
Texans -7.5, total 37.5. Texans vs Titans prediction and picks for Week 5: two winless teams, Houston's schedule, Cam Ward's offense, and the lean.
One Touchdown In Three Weeks: Vikings vs Saints Picks
Vikings -1.5, total 42.5. Vikings vs Saints prediction and picks for Week 5: Minnesota's missing offense, Tyler Shough's bounce back, and the Saints moneyline.
Take The Points: NFL Week 3 Predictions for Every Game
Nine underdogs on a sixteen-game board. My pick for every NFL Week 3 game, one paragraph each, from Thursday night through Monday night, with a link to the full breakdown of each one.
Home Dog In The Division: Bengals vs Steelers Picks
Bengals -3.5, total 42.5. Pittsburgh's offense is in trouble and the drops are a big reason; Cincinnati's defense is the reason it is 2-0. A divisional home dog outside a field goal, and the number I'd take.
The Backdoor Is Open: Cardinals vs 49ers Picks
49ers -8.5, total 47.5. San Francisco cannot catch a break on injuries, Arizona is coming off an embarrassing loss, and 8.5 is a lot in a division game. The lines, the edges, and the number I'd take.
This Is Their Season: Chargers vs Bills Picks
Bills -7, total 50.5. The Chargers lost back-to-back home games by double digits as double-digit favorites, and now they go to Buffalo with the hardest schedule in the league behind this one. A sprinkle on the points, and why.
Chiefs Win, Chiefs Don't Cover: Chiefs vs Dolphins Picks
Chiefs -11.5, total 46.5. Miami is 42 cents on Kalshi to finish with the worst record in football, two weeks in. Kansas City wins games and does not cover big numbers. A lean, not a bet, and why.
Why Only Four And A Half: Eagles vs Bears Monday Night Picks
Eagles -4.5, total 41.5. Caleb Williams is doubtful, Tyson Bagent is in the protocol, and everyone is going to want Philadelphia. So why is the number only 4.5? The offensive line, the run game, first down. The lines, the edges, and the number I'd take.
Penix Is Back: Falcons vs Packers Thursday Night Picks
Packers -5.5, total 43.5. Green Bay's offensive line lost two more starters, Jordan Love had under 100 yards going into the fourth quarter, and Atlanta turns to Michael Penix Jr. off a 34-3 embarrassment. The lines, the tape, and the lean.
Campbell Against His Old Coordinator: Jets vs Lions Picks
Lions -6.5, total 47.5. Detroit's defense was a sieve in Buffalo and the offense still scored 31. Aaron Glenn comes back to Ford Field five days after not calling a timeout with a minute left. The lines, the edges, and the number I'd take.
Bryce Young Looks Too Good: Panthers vs Browns Picks
Panthers -2.5, total 42.5. Cleveland just beat Tampa Bay outright as an 8.5-point dog with a Deshaun Watson who played well, and I usually take the Browns at home. Not at 2.5, not with what Bryce Young is doing. The lines, the edges, and the number I'd take.
The More Complete Team: Patriots vs Jaguars Picks
Jaguars -3, total 45.5. New England won on defense against Pittsburgh with an offense that cannot protect Drake Maye. Jacksonville lost a game it led 13-3 in Denver. Which one is the more complete team, and the number I'd take.
Classic Letdown Spot: Raiders vs Saints Picks
Saints -3, total 44.5. New Orleans just won in Baltimore as an 8.5-point dog; I love the other side of a team coming off a big emotional win. The Raiders' defense might be half legit. The lines, the edges, and the number I'd take.
Denver Can't Keep Up: Rams vs Broncos Sunday Night Picks
Rams -2.5, total 45.5. Matthew Stafford threw four touchdowns, Davante Adams had 195 yards, and Puka Nacua is expected back. Bo Nix and the run game have not shown they can keep up with an offense like that. A lean on the road favorite, and why it feels like a trap.
A Shootout In Rio: Ravens vs Cowboys Picks
Ravens -3.5, total 52.5. The first NFL game in Rio de Janeiro, a field with rain in the forecast, Zay Flowers not practicing, and a Dallas defense that cannot stop anyone. The lines, the edges, and the number I'd take.
Mariota Against That Defense: Seahawks vs Commanders Picks
Seahawks -7, total 40.5. Jayden Daniels is out with the same elbow, Marcus Mariota starts, and Seattle's defense held Arizona to zero completions of 20-plus. Keep an eye on the nor'easter. The lines, the edges, and the number I'd take.
Two Desperate Teams, One At Home: Texans vs Colts Picks
Texans -3, total 42.5. Both teams are 0-2. Nico Collins is likely out again, Daniel Jones looked far better in Kansas City, and one of the two is at home in the division as a field-goal dog. The lines, the edges, and the number I'd take.
Winston Behind That Line: Titans vs Giants Picks
Giants -2.5, total 39.5. Jaxson Dart's knee may cost him the season, Jameis Winston starts behind a line that could not protect anyone, and Jeffery Simmons just put two Eagles linemen in the ground. Titans moneyline at 43 cents.
Flores Makes Everyone Look Lost: Vikings vs Buccaneers Picks
Vikings -1.5, total 42.5. Brian Flores held the offense that scored 59 in Week 1 to three points. Tampa Bay has lost outright to Cleveland and Cincinnati and has not covered in eleven straight games. The lines, the edges, and the number I'd take.
Is Caleb Williams OK? Bears Playoff Odds Climb Back
Caleb Williams left on a cart and everybody watching thought the season went with him. It was a hamstring, and he is week to week. The Kalshi playoff contract still went from 61 cents to 47, and that gap is the story.
How Long Is Jayden Daniels Out? Commanders Odds Crater
Commanders playoff odds after Jayden Daniels dislocated the same left elbow he hurt last November: Kalshi went from 23 cents to 3 by the end of Sunday's loss in Dallas, Marcus Mariota takes over at 0-2, and the sportsbooks think the exchange is being too harsh.
Is Jaxson Dart's Season Over? Giants Playoff Odds Tank
Jaxson Dart went down on the Giants' first drive Monday night and Kalshi cut New York's playoff contract from 47 cents to the 20s before the game ended. Tuesday afternoon: further testing, possible season-ending surgery, and the contract at 15.
Bengals vs Texans Picks: That Defense Won't Stay Quiet Twice
Texans -2.5, total 46.5. Houston allowed the fewest yards in football last year and got two sacks on Josh Allen in Week 1. Joe Burrow cannot beat that defense with his legs the way Allen did. The tape and the number I'd take.
Browns vs Buccaneers Picks: Baker Circled This One
Buccaneers -8.5, total 41.5. Tampa lost on four fumbles, three of them Baker Mayfield's, and still only lost by a score. Cleveland went 1 of 8 on third down in Jacksonville. The tape, the heat, and the number I'd take.
Colts vs Chiefs Picks: Kansas City Is the Trap of the Week
Chiefs -6.5, total 46.5. Kansas City is 44-4 as a favorite of six or more since 2020 and has covered 19 of the 48. The tale of the tape, the Week 1 film on both sides, where the money is, and the number I'd take.
Commanders vs Cowboys Picks: Show Me That Defense First
Cowboys -4.5, total 50.5. Dallas' rebuilt defense allowed 9 of 10 third downs to the Giants, and Jayden Daniels was one two-point conversion from overtime in Philadelphia. The tape, the splits, and the number I'd take.
Dolphins vs 49ers Picks: A Monster Number With A Backdoor
49ers -13.5, total 44.5. San Francisco stayed in Australia a long time and comes home to a Dolphins team with no offense, and Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams and Nick Bosa all missed Wednesday's practice. The tape and where I land on the biggest number of the week.
Eagles vs Titans Picks: Ward Can't Throw It Downfield Yet
Eagles -7, total 39.5. Cam Ward had zero completions of 20-plus yards and Tennessee ran the ball 14 times. Philadelphia's line was a problem in Week 1 and cannot get worse. The tape and the number.
Giants vs Rams Monday Night Picks: Nacua Is Out, Now What
Rams -6.5, total 47.5. Puka Nacua is out, and Jordan Whittington and Kam Kinchens are down with him. The number moved from 7 to 6.5 while Nacua sat last week, and the Rams come home off a brutal loss in Melbourne to a Giants team off one big win.
Jaguars vs Broncos Picks: Jacksonville Is Disrespected Here
Broncos -2.5, total 45.5. Trevor Lawrence threw four touchdowns on 23 attempts and the Jaguars' defense got five sacks. Denver went 2 of 12 on third down in a play-calling debut that Sean Payton may take back. The tape and the number I'd take.
NFL Week 2 Predictions for Every Game: Chiefs Are a Trap
Bears -4.5, Eagles -7, Chiefs -6.5. My pick for every remaining NFL Week 2 game, one paragraph each, from the Sunday early window through Monday night.
Packers vs Jets Picks: The Jets Can't Bring Flores' Pressure
Packers -3.5, total 44.5. Green Bay's line allowed 19 sacks and hits and Jordan Love still had seven completions of 20-plus yards. The Jets sent five or more rushers 30% of the time last week. The tape, the rain, and the number I'd take.
Panthers vs Falcons Picks: Bijan Against A Gutted Defense
Panthers -2.5, total 43.5. Carolina just allowed 59 points and 7.5 yards a carry, and now it gets Bijan Robinson in a division game on the road. The tape, the quarterback question in Atlanta, and the number I'd take.
Raiders vs Chargers Picks: The Half Point Changed My Side
Chargers -6.5, total 43.5. Los Angeles lost outright to Arizona in Mike McDaniel's first game, and the Raiders are still the team with no receivers if Brock Bowers sits. The line went from 7 to 6.5 and that changed the side. The tape and the number.
Saints vs Ravens Picks: Banged-Up Baltimore Lays Nine
Ravens -8.5, total 46.5. Zay Flowers, Ronnie Stanley, Calais Campbell and Trey Hendrickson all missed Wednesday's practice, and the Saints just pushed Detroit to overtime. Where the number stands and the one thing that decides it.
Seahawks vs Cardinals Picks: Arizona Just Had Its Super Bowl
Seahawks -3.5, total 41.5. Arizona beat the Chargers in a new coach's debut and the hangover game is Sunday against a defense that allowed no completions of 20-plus yards. Drew Lock starts for Seattle. The tape and the number I'd take.
Steelers vs Patriots Picks: Then I Watched Rodgers Go Deep
Patriots -5.5, total 41.5. Aaron Rodgers went 0 for 9 on deep balls against Atlanta and Drake Maye threw three fourth-quarter picks in Seattle. One of those is fixable this week. The tape, the splits and the number I'd take.
Vikings vs Bears Picks: Blitz Everyone, Give Up Seven Bombs
Bears -4.5, total 48.5. Minnesota hit Jordan Love 15 times and allowed seven completions of 20-plus yards in the same game. Which Vikings defense shows up in Chicago decides this one.
Lions vs Bills Prediction, Picks & Odds: Everyone's On Buffalo Thursday Night
Bills -4.5, total 53.5. Detroit comes to Buffalo on four days' rest after nearly blowing a 21-0 lead, Josh Allen just went over the top of last year's best defense, and eight of every ten spread tickets are on the home team. The pick is at the bottom.
Can Five AI Models Beat The Market On Kalshi Player Props?
Five AI models, one playbook, the Kalshi board, three yes-or-no contracts each, picked blind. The Week 1 contracts, each model's own reasoning, and a season record in units.
49ers vs Rams: Someone Bet Six Figures At Midnight
At 12:04 AM Eastern on Thursday, one Kalshi account bought about 200,000 contracts of Rams by 5 or more and, 34 seconds later, about 200,000 of the over. Roughly $192,000 in one minute. The tape, the money that answered on the 49ers, and the prices before kickoff in Melbourne.
Bears vs Panthers Odds: The Over Money And The Tape Disagree
At DraftKings, 90% of the total money on Bears-Panthers is on the over 46.5, from 43% of the tickets. On Kalshi, the over 46.5 contract has been sold down from 53 cents to 52 all week, fewer than four in ten contracts bought. One venue's money and the other's tape point opposite ways.
Broncos vs Chiefs Odds: Everybody's On Denver
A hundred thousand Broncos contracts traded on Kalshi in three days and 96% of them were bought. At DraftKings, 80% of the moneyline money is on Denver too. The price has not moved a cent. What that says about Monday night, and why the Chiefs are cheaper on the exchange than at the book.
Cardinals vs Chargers Odds: Someone Keeps Selling L.A.
Twice on Wednesday afternoon a single Kalshi order sold the Chargers in size: 5,738 moneyline contracts at 2:28 PM and 9,449 contracts of Chargers by ten or more at 5:59 PM. At DraftKings, 6% of the moneyline tickets are on Arizona and 25% of the money. The tape on the week's biggest favorite.
Commanders vs Eagles Odds: The Money Is All Philadelphia
Ninety-four percent of DraftKings' spread money is on the Eagles -5.5, and 97% of Kalshi's Eagles flow was buying. The exchange also lets you pick the number: Philadelphia by four or more is 53 cents, by five or more 50, by six or more 47. Which rung matches the book, and where Washington is cheap.
Cowboys vs Giants Odds: The Weekend's Busiest Market
No Sunday game has traded more on Kalshi than Cowboys-Giants: 379,000 contracts on Dallas to win, 92% of this week's flow bought, a price stuck at 61 cents. Inside it, one account bought 7,198 Giants contracts Wednesday and sold exactly 7,198 Thursday at the same price. The tape and the ladder.
Dolphins vs Raiders Odds: Bowers Out, Priced In Two Minutes
The Brock Bowers meniscus report hit just before 4 PM Wednesday. Within a minute Michael Mayer's touchdown contract was being bought at 17 cents; within four, the Raiders' spread, the total and the Dolphins' moneyline had all been repriced. How fast the exchange moved, and the board now.
Drake Maye MVP Odds: Someone Bet Six Figures Against Him
Two and a half hours after Drake Maye's third interception ended the Patriots' opener, one Kalshi account sold 174,487 contracts of Maye for MVP at 7 cents. That is $162,000 laid to win $12,000. The tape, the board, and what the rest of the Patriots' markets did overnight.
Falcons vs Steelers Odds: The Two A.M. Steelers Buyer
At 1:44 AM Tuesday, one Kalshi order took 29,518 contracts of Pittsburgh by four or more in a single second, the biggest spread buy of the Sunday slate. Since then 95% of DraftKings' total money has landed on the under. The tape, the board, and where the exchange is cheaper.
Kalshi vs DraftKings: Every NFL Opener Is Cheaper On Kalshi
Thirty moneyline prices on the Week 1 board, and on every one of them the Kalshi ask sits under the DraftKings number. The gap runs from half a cent on the Lions to nearly four on the Commanders. Where it is real after the fee, where it is a wash, and why it happens.
Packers vs Vikings Odds: Kalshi Is Buying Green Bay
A hundred and two thousand Packers contracts traded on Kalshi in three days, 95% of them bought, and the price went down a cent. At DraftKings, two-thirds of the spread tickets are on Green Bay and half the money. The exchange is three and a half cents cheaper on the Packers. Here is why.
Why Jack Reed (D) Will Win the Rhode Island Senate Race
The strongest honest case for Jack Reed in Rhode Island: the impeachment call he answered in four words, a primary he won with more than three-quarters of the vote, and the one number on the board that is still a real argument.
Why N'Kiyla Thomas (D) Will Win the Oklahoma Senate Race
The runoff is done: N'Kiyla Thomas took 61% of the runoff vote on $57,000 while outspent five to one, and the November contract still asks single digits. The case for the cheap side, with her own record priced in.
49ers vs Rams Kalshi Player Props: Who Gets Fed In Melbourne
Three Kalshi contracts for the Melbourne opener: Christian McCaffrey's catches, Matthew Stafford's touchdown passes and Puka Nacua's yards, with the sportsbook number beside each one.
49ers vs Rams Props: Who Gets Fed In Melbourne
Three player props for the NFL's first game in Australia: Puka Nacua against zone coverage, Christian McCaffrey against the defense that feeds running backs, and Matthew Stafford's touchdown price, with every book's number.
Bears vs Panthers Kalshi Picks: Carolina Lost Both Starting Tackles
Carolina opens as a division champion without either starting tackle, and the market made the visitor a 59-cent favorite in Charlotte. The spread hasn't moved off 2.5 since May, and that's the bet.
Browns vs Jaguars Kalshi Picks: A Touchdown Isn't Enough
Jacksonville is a 79-cent favorite over a Cleveland team starting a quarterback who hasn't played since October 2024. The spread crossed a touchdown over the summer, and at -7.5 a touchdown isn't enough.
Buccaneers vs Bengals Kalshi Picks: Cincinnati Couldn't Stop Anyone
Cincinnati is a 65-cent favorite laying 3.5 at home with Joe Burrow back, behind a defense that allowed 6.3 yards a play last year, worst in the league, against a Tampa Bay pass defense that ranked 27th. The bet is the total, and the side only at 3.
Cardinals vs Chargers Kalshi Picks: The Money Is On The Cardinals
The Chargers are an 82-cent favorite laying 10.5 at home against a three-win team with a new coach, and most of the DraftKings money is on the three-win team. The line has moved their way, too.
Commanders vs Eagles Kalshi Picks: The Pass Rush Isn't There Yet
Philadelphia lays 4.5 at home, a point less than it opened, against a Washington team without its left tackle, its top three edge rushers, and with a play-caller who has never called a play. The Eagles' pass defense was last season's outlier and its people are back.
Cowboys vs Giants Kalshi Picks: Dallas Has Won Five Of The Last Six
Dallas is a 60-cent favorite on Sunday night with the league's best passing offense against a Giants defense that allowed 5.6 yards a carry, and the Cowboys have won five of the last six in the series. The side, and the number that matters.
Falcons vs Steelers Kalshi Picks: Atlanta Named Its Quarterback
Pittsburgh went from 63 to 67 cents in one Thursday afternoon, on a 64,000-contract sweep that printed at 1:53 p.m., nearly two hours before the Falcons posted the injury report that listed Tua Tagovailoa limited with an oblique. Cooper Rush took every first-team rep.
NFL Week 1 Kalshi Player Props: Six Contracts That Stick Out
Six Kalshi contracts for Sunday: Jordan Love, Chris Olave, Quinshon Judkins, Colston Loveland, Cade Otton and Rashod Bateman, with the sportsbook number beside each one.
NFL Week 1 Player Props: Six Numbers That Stick Out
Six Sunday props with every book's number: Jordan Love, Chris Olave, Quinshon Judkins, Colston Loveland, Cade Otton and Rashod Bateman.
Patriots vs Seahawks Kalshi Player Props: Seattle Gives Up Catches, Not Yards
Three Kalshi contracts for Wednesday's opener in Seattle: Hunter Henry's catches, A.J. Brown's catches and a no on Rhamondre Stevenson's carries, with the sportsbook number beside each one.
Patriots vs Seahawks Props: The Middle Of The Field Is Open
Three Patriots-Seahawks player props for Wednesday night: Hunter Henry against a Seattle defense missing its safeties, an under on A.J. Brown's yards against the defense that gives up catches instead, and an under on the running back the market just promoted.
Ravens vs Colts Kalshi Picks: The New Coach Gives Points On Day One
Baltimore is a 63-cent favorite laying 3.5 on the road in the first game its head coach has ever run, against a quarterback who spent nine months rehabbing an Achilles to be there.
Saints vs Lions Kalshi Picks: Detroit Is Laying Exactly Seven
Detroit is a 73-cent favorite laying a touchdown at home with a play-caller in his first game, against a Saints team that went 9-8 against the spread and brings a 45-sack pass rush against a quarterback who was sacked 38 times. The side, and why Kalshi's version is better than the book's.
Bills vs Texans Picks: Houston Won The Last One Without Stroud
The market can't pick a favorite: Bills 50 cents, Texans 51 on Kalshi, DraftKings Bills -1.5. The last time Josh Allen played in Houston he was sacked eight times, and Houston did it without C.J. Stroud.
Broncos vs Chiefs Picks: Mahomes Is Back, Nine Months To The Day
A six-win team is a 56-cent favorite over a fifteen-win team on Monday night, because the quarterback is back nine months to the day after knee surgery. The side I'm on, and the case against it.
Dolphins vs Raiders Picks: One Coach Says Wins Don't Matter
Las Vegas won three games last season and is a 63-cent favorite anyway, because Miami's new coach says this year won't be measured in wins. The number I'd wait for, and where I'm out.
GTA 6 Release Date: Traders Are Betting November Holds
GTA 6 comes out November 19, 2026, on PS5 and Xbox. Kalshi prices the date at about nine in ten, a price that survived a leaked build and an earnings call.
Jets vs Titans Picks: The Favorite Shrank All Summer
Tennessee opened as a field-goal favorite in May and is laying 1.5 now, without a snap played. Robert Saleh opens against the team that fired him, the total is the lowest of Week 1, and the bet is the total.
Packers vs Vikings Picks: The Bad News Landed On Green Bay
Minnesota is a 53-cent favorite on Kalshi behind a quarterback with one preseason drive of tape, and Green Bay opens without its lead back and its best defender. The number I'd lay, and where I'm out.
Who Will Be the Democratic Nominee in 2028? Nobody Is Close to a Favorite
Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee? As of Sept. 3, 2026, Kalshi has Ossoff and Ocasio-Cortez tied at 17% and Newsom at 14%. No favorite yet.
49ers vs Rams Picks: The Home Team Flies In Last
The 49ers have been in Melbourne since Friday with George Kittle and Nick Bosa on the plane, and Kalshi's price is back exactly where it started. The Rams still lay more than a field goal on a field that belongs to neither team, and their charter lands the day before.
Patriots vs Seahawks Picks: The Champs Aren't The Same Team
The Super Bowl rematch opens the season on a Wednesday night in Seattle. The champions are the favorite, the Patriots coach says his team is not deep, and the number sits on the wrong side of a field goal.
Why Alani Bankhead (D) Will Win the Montana Senate Race
The steelman case for Alani Bankhead in Montana: a nominee her own party tried to push off the ballot, a one-cent price on the only Democratic label in the race, and the single path every blind model read names.
Why Andy Barr (R) Will Win the Kentucky Senate Race
The steelman case for Andy Barr in Kentucky: a 34-year Democratic drought, a bank-PAC war chest, a challenger the state has already measured, and a margin board that is the only real argument left on the page.
Why Cory Booker (D) Will Win the New Jersey Senate Race
The steelman case for Cory Booker in New Jersey: a $22.2 million war chest built on a record-breaking Senate speech, a challenger who reported $122.51 in the bank, and a margin ladder pricing him to beat his own best-ever win.
Why David Brock Smith (R) Will Win the Oregon Senate Race
His own party put him on a billboard as 'made in China' and he won anyway. The steelman case for David Brock Smith against a 4-cent price: the map math, the unpolled incumbent, and the one number that sinks it.
Why Jeff Merkley (D) Will Win the Oregon Senate Race
The steelman case for Jeff Merkley in Oregon: a senator working to ban election betting while the market prices him as a near-lock, a 235-to-1 cash advantage over David Brock Smith, and a margin ladder that holds the only live question left in the race.
Why Jon Husted (R) Will Win the Ohio Senate Race
Kalshi odds and the full case for Jon Husted (R) in the Ohio Senate race: Husted vs Brown, the Sept. 28 retrial, the polls, the money and the record.
Why Justin Murphy (R) Will Win the New Jersey Senate Race
He won the Republican primary with about a hundred dollars to his name. Cory Booker is sitting on a 22 million dollar war chest. The steelman case for the two-cent contract, priced live.
Why Kevin Hern (R) Will Win the Oklahoma Senate Race
The matchup is set: N'Kiyla Thomas won Tuesday's runoff, Kevin Hern trades near certainty, and the margin ladder lists only Republican blowouts. The steelman case, priced live.
Why Larry E. Marker (R) Will Win the New Mexico Senate Race
No Republican even filed for the ballot, then 31,220 New Mexicans hand-wrote Larry Marker onto it. His contract costs about a nickel. The steelman case, priced live.
Why Marquita Bradshaw (D) Will Win the Tennessee Senate Race
A nominee with a thousand dollars in the bank just won a majority of a five-way primary. The live board, the steelman case for the rematch, and the ledger stacked against it.
Why Pete Ricketts (R) Will Win the Nebraska Senate Race
The steelman case for Pete Ricketts holding Nebraska: a ballot with no Democrat on it, a same-ballot experiment that already measured both men, and a blind model panel that reads the race stronger than the market does.
Why Scott Colom (D) Will Win the Mississippi Senate Race
The steelman case for Scott Colom in Mississippi: a senator who blocked him from the federal bench and now has to beat him at the ballot box, a three-point spring poll, and a runoff rule that gives the underdog a second door.
Why Sherrod Brown (D) Will Win the Ohio Senate Race
The Republican Senate committee put a fatal Ohio crash into an anti-Brown ad. Two fact-checkers and the victims' family answered in the same week. The contract on Democrats taking this seat back asks 56 cents, and the strongest version of that case is priced live.
Why Susan Collins (R) Will Win the Maine Senate Race
Susan Collins trails by single digits in August polls. Her case: an Appropriations gavel funding all 16 counties, and a 2020 race she trailed in and won.
Why Troy Jackson (D) Will Win the Maine Senate Race
The steelman case for Troy Jackson in Maine: a fifth-generation logger who lost a primary in June, took the nomination in July, and led a five-term incumbent in three straight August polls.
Brazil Election 2026: Trump's Tariff Is Boosting Lula
Flávio Bolsonaro told the US Trade Representative in writing that a new tariff would strengthen Lula, and asked Trump to wait until after October. Trump signed it anyway. The polls now call the runoff a coin flip; the market does not.
Israel Election 2026: Bennett Calls Netanyahu an 'Anarchist'
Naftali Bennett called Netanyahu 'almost an anarchist' the same weekend the Shin Bet refused Gadi Eisenkot a bodyguard. The polls leave Eisenkot two seats short of a majority, and the market has priced him anyway.
MA-6 Primary: DraftKings Cash Floods Moulton's Open Seat
DraftKings wrote a $250,000 check to the super PAC behind Dan Koh, and the market has him as a heavy favorite in a six-way race with no independent poll.
MA-8 Primary: The Globe Backed Roath. Bettors Bought Lynch
The Boston Globe endorsed Patrick Roath and a David Hogg super PAC mailed for him, yet the money on the Sept. 1 primary moved toward Stephen Lynch all week.
Markey vs Moulton: 'I'll Vote for the Old Man' Voters Say
Ed Markey is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Massachusetts. The AP called it over Seth Moulton at 8:31 p.m. on September 1, and Kalshi settled his contract, quoted at 98.8 cents the day before, at a dollar 33 minutes later.
NH-01 Primary: Shaheen Fell From Favorite to Coin Flip
One Saint Anselm poll turned Stefany Shaheen from a heavy favorite into a coin flip against Maura Sullivan, and the two campaigns answered with the ugliest ad exchange of the New Hampshire cycle.
Sununu vs Brown: Trump's Pick Skips the Last Debate
New Hampshire votes Tuesday and Kalshi has John E. Sununu at 99 cents to be the Republican Senate nominee over Scott Brown. The only number left to trade is his margin: 40 points trades near 50 cents, 50 points near 25, and the November seat sits at 18 cents for Republicans.
Providence Mayor Primary: 'Defund' Ad Meets Mamdani Wave
David Morales beat Brett Smiley 57 to 43 on Sept. 9, the first primary a Providence mayor has ever lost. The market that had the incumbent under 50 cents was right. The results edition: the count, the primary-night tape, and what Kalshi still has to price before November.
Rhode Island Governor Primary: McKee Says 'I Am the State'
Results edition: Helena Foulkes beat Gov. Dan McKee 62-38 in the Sept. 9 Rhode Island Democratic primary, the AP called it 23 minutes after the polls closed, and Kalshi settled the board at 9:25 p.m.
Germany's AfD Is One Vote From Its First State Government
The AfD is polling at 43% in Saxony-Anhalt and the market has stopped arguing about who finishes first on September 6. The live question is whether it wins a majority outright, and that turns on the Greens clearing 5%.
Why Abdul El-Sayed (D) Will Win the Michigan Senate Race
Six of seven September polls have Abdul El-Sayed ahead and Kalshi has moved him from 62 cents to 70. The case, the price path, and the risk the September polls did not answer.
Why Annie Andrews (D) Will Win South Carolina's Senate Race
The Republican runoff resolved on August 25, and Annie Andrews finally has an opponent: an appointed senator who told a debate audience that national security is not her thing. The steelman case for the cheap side of the board, argued from the sourced record.
Why Darline Graham (R) Will Win South Carolina's Senate Race
The steelman case for Darline Graham in South Carolina: a nomination called Tuesday night, a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1998, an 88-cent price, and a price-blind model panel that reads her side even stronger than the market.
Why Ed Markey (D) Will Win the MA Senate Primary
The steelman case for Ed Markey in the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary: a 96-cent market, a 28-point August poll break, and a generational challenge he has beaten before.
Why James Talarico (D) Will Win the Texas Senate Race
Eight September polls, eight Talarico leads, and a Kalshi price that went from a coin flip to 59 cents. The case for James Talarico in Texas, the price path, and what still discounts it.
Why Jim Priest (D) Will Win The Oklahoma Senate Primary
Jim Priest trades near 11 cents on Kalshi to win tonight's Oklahoma Democratic Senate runoff against N'Kiyla Thomas. The steelman case for the cheap side of the board, the debate fight that defined the race, and what the model panel sees that the price does not.
Why John Deaton (R) Will Win Massachusetts' Senate Primary
The MassGOP endorsed John Deaton ten months before the primary, and the Boston Globe's headline said why: to avoid one. The September ballot now carries a single Republican name, and the market has priced the ending.
Why Karishma Manzur (D) Will Win the NH Senate Primary
The steelman case for Karishma Manzur in the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary: a three-cent market, a billboard in Chris Pappas's hometown, a 28 in the only poll, and the day someone bet 19 thousand dollars that she loses.
Why Michael Whatley (R) Will Win the NC Senate Race
The steelman case for Michael Whatley in North Carolina: a race one August poll now has at five points, a registration flip, an eight-cent price, and a price-blind model panel that reads the long shot as three times livelier than the market.
Why Mike Rogers (R) Will Win the Michigan Senate Race
Seven September polls had El-Sayed ahead in six, yet Kalshi moved Rogers from 41 cents to 31. The case is now about the electorate, not the polls.
Why Mike Rounds (R) Will Win the South Dakota Senate Race
Trump once swore he would never endorse 'this jerk' again. Now Mike Rounds has the endorsement, a six-to-one money edge, and a challenger field that thinned out in August.
Why Raymond McKay (R) Will Win the Rhode Island Senate Primary
Twelve years after Warwick took him to federal court to keep him off a Senate ballot, Raymond McKay is the only Republican left on Rhode Island's September 9 primary ballot, and the market prices it that way.
Why Scott Brown (R) Will Win the NH Senate Primary
The steelman case for Scott Brown in the New Hampshire Republican Senate primary: a 3-cent market, a Trump endorsement that went to the man who called Trump a loser, and a front-runner who will not take a WMUR debate.
Why Seth Moulton (D) Will Win The Mass. Senate Primary
In May the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary was a five-point race. One week out, the challenger with more cash in the bank than the incumbent trades under a nickel.
OpenAI IPO: The CFO Named The Year. The Market Named Spring
OpenAI's finance chief told staff the company goes public in 2027. The people with money on the question agree with her, and this week they told you which season.
Aaron Judge Home Run Odds: A Penny On The Fallen King
Judge hasn't swung a bat since May 31, his GM won't promise he's back this year — and the home run title he owned is now a four-man brawl the market can't call.
NL MVP Odds: The Wrigley Night The Market Turned On Ohtani
At the All-Star break, Ohtani was a lock for a third straight MVP. Then he and Pete Crow-Armstrong traded haymakers at Wrigley — and the money switched sides.
NFL Hot Seat Odds: Why The Money Piled On Mike Vrabel
He went 14-3 and took the Patriots to a Super Bowl. So why is there $396,000 riding on whether Mike Vrabel is out of a job before September 1?
Valkyries Title Odds: The Expansion Team Bettors Won't Fade
A second-year expansion team just clinched a playoff berth sitting second in the WNBA — and the market prices them ahead of New York. The Lynx problem is the catch.
Harry Kane Ballon D'Or Odds: He Lost Twice. Bettors Shrugged
Kane lost the World Cup semifinal and the Champions League semifinal. Kalshi still makes him a 63-cent favorite. Here's the season that broke the formula.
Jeremiah Smith Heisman Odds: Traders Doubt A Generational WR
He's the consensus best player in college football, on the No. 1 team, with $6.4M traded on the Heisman board. So why is his price stuck at six cents?
Kalshi Fantasy Football Rankings: A Draft Board Money Built
Forty million people are drafting off the same expert lists. Kalshi's stat-leader markets are a rankings sheet built by people risking real money — and it disagrees in useful places.
NFL Preseason Props On Kalshi: Real Money, Fake Football
Kalshi is pricing rookie QB passing yards in games that don't count. Tonight in Pittsburgh, with Rodgers in a hoodie, that might be the sharpest board of the weekend.
MLB Worst Record Odds: The Race Nobody Wants To Win
The A's fell from .500 to the basement in two months, the owner gets booed in his own park, and there's a market on which team finishes last. It's closer than you'd think.
NFL MVP Odds After Week 4: The Top Spot Changed Hands
Brock Purdy jumped 9 cents to 28 with a win over Denver and passed Josh Allen, who held at 27 after losing to New England. Lamar Jackson fell 5 cents to 7.
Chambliss Heisman Odds: Bettors Back A QB Who Beat The NCAA
Zero D-I offers. A Division II title. A courtroom win over the NCAA just to play this season. Now Trinidad Chambliss carries the second-biggest Heisman bet on Kalshi.
AOC 2028 Odds: Traders Repriced The Party's Nightmare
Within 48 hours of Tuesday's primaries, Kalshi's 2028 Democratic board reshuffled — and the name now at the top is the one the party establishment spends millions against.
Bass Vs Raman Odds: The Fake Poll Kalshi Didn't Buy
A fabricated poll showed Karen Bass up 12 in the LA mayor race. She shared it. Kalshi's price never moved a cent — here's what the market saw that Twitter didn't.
Becerra Vs Hilton Odds: Who Bet On Becerra?
Becerra trades at 96 cents to be California's next governor. The strangest subplot: reporting that Kalshi-linked money backed his campaign while Kalshi priced his race.
Collins Vs Jackson Odds: Kalshi Fades A 30-Year Survivor
Susan Collins has survived every wave since 1996. Kalshi's bettors now make her a 2-to-1 underdog against a fifth-generation logger — while the models still say she wins.
Epstein Files Odds: The Market Prices A Contempt Showdown
A federal judge says the attorney general conceded violating the Epstein files law. The DOJ disputes it. Kalshi's markets are pricing what comes out next — carefully.
Fed Rate Hike Odds: Trump's Own Pick Might Hike On Him
Core CPI ran a tenth hot in August, and Kalshi's September hike went from 58 cents to 85 in the 40 seconds after Friday's 8:30 release. As of 8:55 p.m.
Mamdani Tax Odds: Trump, A Judge, And A Coin Flip
A judge halted Mamdani's pied-à-terre tax. The city un-halted it in hours. Trump wants it 'stopped, NOW!' Kalshi calls the court fight a coin flip. Here's the case.
Paxton Vs Talarico Odds: Kalshi Makes Texas A Coin Flip
Texas hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1988. After everything Ken Paxton survived, Kalshi's bettors now price the seat at 50-50. Here's the whole file.
Socialists Keep Winning Primaries. The Odds Won't Budge
Socialists keep toppling Democratic incumbents, and Kalshi's midterm prices barely move. What the betting markets know, and what they just got badly wrong.
Sullivan Vs Peltola Odds: Kalshi Moved Before The Pundits
Mary Peltola beat the sitting senator outright in Tuesday's primary. The raters still say toss-up. Kalshi's bettors already made Dan Sullivan an underdog — at 100x volume.
Trump Impeachment Odds: Kalshi Prices Round Three
The bettors on Kalshi now make a third Trump impeachment more likely than not. The dates tell you exactly when they think it happens — and who has to win first.
Why Angie Nixon (D) Will Win The FL Senate Race: Kalshi Odds
Why Angie Nixon will win the Florida Senate race: live Kalshi odds after her upset of Alexander Vindman, her 8-cent line's funded book, and the bear case.
Why Ashley Moody (R) Will Win: Kalshi Odds
Ashley Moody trades at 93 cents on Kalshi to win Florida's 2026 Senate race over Angie Nixon. The full board, the margin ladder, and the honest bear case.
Why Harriet Hageman (R) Will Win the Wyoming Senate Race
Harriet Hageman vs James Byrd: why Hageman wins Wyoming's 2026 Senate race, plus the Kalshi odds, the margin-of-victory ladder, and the bear case.
Why James Byrd Will Win the Wyoming Senate Race
James Byrd trades at about 2 cents against Harriet Hageman on Kalshi's 2026 Wyoming Senate board. The underdog case, the margin ladder, and the live odds.
Fed Rate Cut in September? Traders Are Betting on a Hike
The Fed meets September 15-16. A cut is still a penny on Kalshi, and after Friday's 162,000-job August payroll report the quarter-point hike is the favorite again, 51 to 52 cents over a hold at 47 to 48. The first meeting where a cut is bid above a penny is October, at 3 cents bid, 4 ask.
Trump's Next Press Secretary: The Favorite Keeps Changing
Fox News announced at 1:20 p.m. Thursday that it had parted ways with Maria Bartiromo. Kalshi listed her for the press secretary job the same minute, traders paid 40 cents within 17 minutes, and two denials followed quickly. She is 14 cents anyway.
Can Kalshi Change Market Rules After You Bet? What The Rulebook Allows
Can Kalshi change rules after market close? What Rule 7.2, emergency Rule 2.8, and the CFTC's 10-day filing clock actually allow, quoted from the rulebook.
Prediction Market Insider Trading: What Kalshi Actually Bans
Insider trading on prediction markets is banned in writing and policed by real cases, yet a legal gray zone survives. Here is where the line actually sits.
How People Lose Money on Kalshi: The Steamroller Trade
A trader's $700,000 prediction market loss shows how a big binary risk hides in an all-or-nothing contract until settlement, and how to size for it.
Trump Travel Prediction Market: Insider Information?
Trump travel prediction market insider information, explained: what a visit contract actually settles on, the public trail behind sharp calls, and the rules.
Why Byron Donalds (R) Will Win The Florida Governor Primary
Byron Donalds trades near 98 cents on Kalshi to win Florida's Republican governor primary on August 18, 2026. The ballot math and the honest bear case.
Are Prediction Markets Dangerous Gambling? Why They Feel Smarter Than A Bet
Are prediction markets dangerous gambling? They can be, but not for the reason you think. Feeling smart is what removes your guardrails.
How To File A CFTC Reparations Complaint About Kalshi
How to file a CFTC reparations complaint about a Kalshi settlement: the exchange review, the free CFTC form, then Form 30 fees and the eligibility catch.
How Much Money Should You Put On Kalshi? Bankroll Rules For Event Contracts
How much money should I put on Kalshi? A bankroll answer in percentages: risk capital only, a 1-5% cap per market, and math that survives losing streaks.
Kalshi Profit And Loss Tracking: Your Real P&L, Fees Included
Kalshi profit and loss tracking, done right: the exact fee formula, the FIFO method Kalshi uses, the monthly refresh gotcha, and a simple template.
Kalshi Vs Polymarket Rules: Same Event, Different Winners
Kalshi vs Polymarket rules can settle the same event two ways. How source, deadline, and definition differences decide winners.
How Polymarket's UMA Oracle Settles Disputes — And How A Whale Vote Flipped One
How Polymarket's UMA oracle settles disputes: bonded proposals, a 2-hour challenge window, token-weighted votes, and the whale vote that flipped a $7M market.
Kalshi Market Pending Settlement? The 24-Hour Review Rule
Kalshi market pending settlement? What happens between close and payout: the 3-hour norm, the 24-hour Rule 7.1 review clock, and when it is time to act.
Kalshi Bet Marked Lost After Team Won? The NFL 9-Win Case
Kalshi bet marked lost after team won? Provisional grades, stat corrections, and the exchange's own regrading rules, explained through a real 9th-win complaint.
Kalshi Steelers Over 8.5 Settlement: Refunded, Not Paid
Kalshi Steelers over 8.5 settlement dispute, explained: why a winning NFL win-total position showed a refund instead of a $1 payout, and what the rulebook says.
Paper Trading Prediction Markets Before You Risk Real Money
Paper trading prediction markets is the free practice loop most traders skip. Here is how to log hypothetical trades, grade yourself.
Prediction Market Spread Cost: The Spread Is The Vig
Prediction market spread cost explained: the bid-ask spread is the real vig. A 3-cent spread means a 103% book, and 'fee-free' markets still charge it.
Why Ben Ray Lujan (D) Will Win The New Mexico Senate Race
The case for why Ben Ray Lujan will win New Mexico's 2026 Senate race: what Kalshi's 97-cent price says, the margin ladder, and the honest bear case.
Why Bert Mizusawa Will Win The Virginia Senate Race
Why Bert Mizusawa will win the Virginia Senate race: Kalshi prices him in single digits, and the fetched numbers a Republican case runs on are below.
Why Bill Hagerty Will Win The Tennessee Senate Race
Why Bill Hagerty will win Tennessee's 2026 Senate race: what Kalshi's near-certain price says, the all-Republican margin ladder, and the honest bear case.
Why Charles Booker (D) Will Win The Kentucky Senate Race
The case for Charles Booker winning Kentucky's 2026 Senate race: what Kalshi's 7-cent price misses, what the margin ladder implies, and the bear case.
Why Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) Will Win Mississippi Senate Race
The case for why Cindy Hyde-Smith will win Mississippi's 2026 Senate race: why the 92-cent Kalshi price may be too cheap, plus the margin ladder and bear case.
Why Kurt Alme (R) Will Win the Montana Senate Race
The steelman case for Kurt Alme holding Montana on November 3, 2026: the deadline to unsplit the opposition passed on August 10 with the field still split three ways, and the poll funded by his opposition published the number that shows why that matters.
Core CPI Odds: Did July Inflation Cool? The Print Vs. The Market
Core CPI prediction market odds: a graded AI panel prices Kalshi's next core inflation print and shows its scored July record, updated for the Sept 11 release.
Does Kalshi Have Position Limits? Max Bet Sizes And Why They Exist
Yes, and the real numbers sit in CFTC filings: hard caps on some markets, accountability levels on others. The actual max sizes, and what limits cannot do.
Does Kalshi Void Postponed Games? The Refund Nobody Gets
Kalshi void rules for postponed, suspended and canceled games: a 48-hour clock, a 55-minute clause and the last fair price decide what your ticket is worth.
Kalshi Market Rules: How A 90-Cent Yes Settled No
Kalshi market rules run three layers deep: the one-line summary, the expanded rules, and the contract terms PDF that decides settlement. Read all three first.
Next James Bond: The Unknown Who Crashed the Shortlist
A 31-year-old unknown named Jack Barton went from unlisted to market favorite for the next James Bond in six hours on Aug. 26. What the studio said, and why.
NFL Preseason Week 1 Thursday Picks: Six Games, One Board
Dave Loughran's NFL preseason Week 1 Thursday picks for all six Aug. 13 games: Titans -6 at San Francisco is the featured play, with Bengals -6.5, Patriots +2.5, and three leans priced against the live Kalshi board.
Why Jon Ossoff (D) Will Win The Georgia Senate Race
The full case for Jon Ossoff winning Georgia's 2026 Senate race: what Kalshi's 91-cent price says, the margin-of-victory ladder, and the honest bear case.
Elon Musk Net Worth: Trillionaire Again Before New Year?
Forbes had Elon Musk at $862.4 billion on August 26, about $170 billion off the floor he hit after posting (Former) Trillionaire. The people with money on the question price the road back to $1.4 trillion at about one chance in five.
Who Will Win the House in 2026? Where the Big Money Went
The favorite's price has not moved in a month. The long shot's contract took nearly all of the day's trading, including a half-million-contract sweep in a single second that went nowhere. What the polls, the special elections and the redrawn maps say about who wins the House.
Kalshi Fee Schedule: The 129 Markets That Cost More To Trade
The 7% trading-fee formula is only the start: maker fees hit specific series, MLB trades at half rate and a few markets are free. Where your fees land.
Kalshi Fees Vs. Sportsbook Vig: Which Costs You More?
Kalshi fees vs sportsbook vig, compared honestly: what the 7% fee formula really charges, what -110 juice really costs, and which venue is cheaper by market.
Why Ashley Moody (R) Will Win the Florida Senate Primary
The steelman case for Ashley Moody in the Florida Republican Senate primary: a 98-cent Kalshi price, a ballot none of her priced rivals ever joined, and a nomination the market treats as already decided.
Why Chris Pappas (D) Will Win the NH Senate Primary
The steelman case for Chris Pappas in the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary: a 96-cent market, a four-win record in the state's swing district, and a six-name board where every serious rival's line went quiet.
Why John E. Sununu (R) Will Win the NH Senate Primary
The steelman case for John E. Sununu in the New Hampshire Republican Senate primary: a 94-cent market, a seat he is the last Republican to have won, and a four-week runway with no live challenger on the board.
Why John Shulli Will Win The Delaware Republican Senate Primary
Why John Shulli will win the Delaware Republican Senate primary: the live Kalshi book, his fundraising lead over Michael Katz, and the honest bear case.
Why Ken Paxton (R) Will Win the Texas Senate Race
The case for Ken Paxton in Texas after a September that ran against him: eight polls with Talarico ahead, a price that fell from 48 cents to 43, and the 32-year streak the market is now discounting.
Why Michael Katz (R) Will Win the Delaware Senate Primary
The steelman case for Michael Katz in the Delaware Republican Senate primary: an 89-cent Kalshi ask, a convention that broke four-to-one his way, and a two-man ballot the state closed in July.
Why Michele Tafoya Will Win The Minnesota Senate Race
Michele Tafoya trades at 8.3 cents on Kalshi to win the 2026 Minnesota Senate race vs Peggy Flanagan. The steelman case, full board, and what 8 cents pays.
Why Peggy Flanagan (D) Will Win the Minnesota Senate Race
The steelman case for Peggy Flanagan winning Minnesota's open Senate seat: a primary called overnight, a 92-cent Kalshi price, two decades of DFL Senate wins, and the one number that argues against her.
SAVE Act: What Stands Between the Bill and Trump's Desk
Five Senate floor votes since March, none within eight of 60, and a 2 a.m. deal that sent everyone home until mid-September. What the SAVE Act does, why it keeps failing, and where the money went this week.
Why Angie Craig Lost The Minnesota Senate Primary
Angie Craig lost the MN DFL Senate primary to Peggy Flanagan, 59.0 to 39.4. How the 29-cent money case failed and what the 70/29 Kalshi board got right.
Why Billy Benavidez Will Win Wyoming's Democratic Senate Primary
Why Billy Benavidez will win the Wyoming Democratic Senate primary: the live Kalshi book, the two-man ballot math, and the honest bear case.
Why Jack Reed Will Win The Rhode Island Democratic Senate Primary
Why Jack Reed will win the Rhode Island Democratic Senate primary: the live Kalshi book, five wins never below 63%, the money gap, and the honest bear case.
Why Mark Warner Will Win The Virginia Senate Race
Why Mark Warner will win the Virginia Senate race: Kalshi prices him near 96 cents, and the fetched numbers behind that price are below.
Why Michele Tafoya (R) Will Win the Minnesota Senate Primary
The steelman case for Michele Tafoya in the Minnesota Republican Senate primary: a three-to-one money lead over the endorsed candidate, the only general-election polling anchor in the field, and a Kalshi board that prices every rival under a penny on primary day.
Why N'Kiyla Thomas Will Win Oklahoma's Democratic Senate Primary
Why N'Kiyla Thomas will win the Oklahoma Democratic Senate primary: the live Kalshi runoff prices, the June first-round math, and the honest bear case.
Why Rachel Fetty Anderson (D) Will Win The West Virginia Senate Race
The case for Rachel Fetty Anderson winning West Virginia's 2026 Senate race: what Kalshi's 1-3 cent price assumes, midterm base rates, and the bear case.
Why Ralph Norman Will Win The South Carolina Senate Primary
Ralph Norman advanced to South Carolina's Aug. 25 Senate runoff against Darline Graham Nordone. The poll, the runoff math, and the case he completes it.
Why Roy Cooper (D) Will Win The North Carolina Senate Race
Why Roy Cooper will win the North Carolina Senate race: Kalshi prices him at 91 cents, the margin ladder prices a comfortable win, and the bear case is below.
Why Shelley Moore Capito (R) Will Win The West Virginia Senate Race
Why Shelley Moore Capito will win the West Virginia Senate race: Kalshi prices her near 97 cents, and the fetched numbers behind that price are below.
Wisconsin Governor Race 2026: One Poll, Two Answers
The first poll since the primary says the race is either a modest Crowley lead or a dead tie, depending on which voters you count. The certified count, the money, the independents and the people trading on the outcome each read it differently.
Prediction Market Whales: How One Trader Moves The Price
One large order can move a thin market nine points in seconds. How order books absorb size, when a spike self-corrects, and mechanics vs manipulation.
Kevin Durant Next Team: The Trade Nobody Is Making
Kevin Durant is under contract in Houston, and no reporter has put a trade on the record since early July. Then a half-million-view X rumor bid Boston from a 1-cent floor to 14 and knocked the stay price from a 91-cent close to 86-89. What the tape actually shows.
Ethereum Price: Can ETH Beat Its January High Before 2027?
Ethereum is back near $2,500 after a 31 percent month, and the contract on a new 2026 high has tripled in eight trading days. The live price, the week's biggest trades, and what the forecasters make of it.
Avengers: Doomsday Cast: The Names Marvel Won't Confirm
Marvel has put roughly 30 actors in chairs for Doomsday. Maguire, Jackman and Reynolds are not among them. Who's official, who's rumor, what the money says.
Why Mike Collins (R) Will Win The Georgia Senate Race
The full case for Mike Collins winning Georgia's 2026 Senate race: why an 8-cent Kalshi price may be too cheap, what the AI panel says, and the bear case.
California Governor Race 2026: Who Paid for the Close Poll
One August poll has the race inside ten points, and the fine print says the Republican's campaign paid for it. Every independent survey since the June primary, the certified primary count, the money and the people trading on the outcome say something else.
How To Trade NFL On Kalshi: Make Or Take, Explained
What NFL cent prices mean, how they map to sportsbook moneylines, and when making a price beats taking one. A full walkthrough of game and futures markets.
iPhone 18 Release Date: Apple Set a Date, Not for This Phone
Apple sent its September 9 invitation on August 26, and the standard iPhone 18 is not expected to be in it. What Apple has said, what the supply chain says, and where the market puts the date.
2028 Presidential Election: The Race Nobody Has Entered Yet
Nobody has declared, and the people with money on the question have already picked a top four. One of them says he has zero interest. One says she has not ruled it out. One got a huge buy at 1:39 in the morning.
2028 Republican Nominee: Cruz Says It Isn't Settled Yet
The vice president holds the top rung and the secretary of state the second. On August 26 a Texas senator said out loud that he wants the job, and the people with money on the question barely moved.
Traders Are Betting On A Quiet Fed. The Machines Are Not So Sure
A quarter-point September hike is 55 to 56 cents on Kalshi against 44 to 45 for no change, and the lead widened in the Fed's blackout week with Brent above $100. Eight AI models priced blind on August 22 said 71.5% no change.
How To Play Sleeper Picks: Review + Promo Code
How to play Sleeper Picks: the over/under pick'em app's dynamic pricing, 100x payouts, deposit bonus, and whether it's actually worth it.
2026 Midterm Election Odds: Every Race On One Board
Kalshi prices both chambers and all 35 Senate seats. Seven AI models priced the same four-way board blind and landed 15 points below the market on the Senate.
Trump GM Speech Markets on Kalshi: Betting He Says Windmill
Kalshi runs 34 mention markets on Trump's speech at GM Milford today. Six AI models scored every one, grounded for the first time in 1,113 settled contracts.
What Will Trump Say at the Correspondents’ Dinner? AI Odds
Kalshi runs 34 word-and-phrase markets on tonight's Trump Correspondents' Dinner speech. Seven AI models scored every one, price-blind.
How Long Will Trump Speak at the WHCD? AI vs the Market
Kalshi's 15-rung ladder prices tonight's Trump speech near 30 minutes. Seven AI models priced the same ladder blind - then the market moved onto their curve.
AI vs. The Crowd: The 5 Biggest Disagreements On Tonight's Trump Speech
Hours before Trump takes the podium, seven AI models and the Kalshi crowd still disagree on five phrases. The gaps, the movement, and what settles it tonight.
Will the Correspondents’ Dinner Happen? A 98-Cent Market
Kalshi's quietest Correspondents' Dinner market has tracked the reschedule since April. Seven AI models weigh the last two cents of doubt.
DraftKings Vs FanDuel: One Has The Odds, One Has The Rewards
Is DraftKings or FanDuel better? FanDuel usually has the sharper odds and shows limits up front. DraftKings pays you to bet with Dynasty Rewards. Use both.
