Dave Loughran
Betting Expert & Host, OddsShopper
Dave Loughran ("Loughy") hosts OddsShopper’s sports betting shows and writes its NFL picks and player-prop pages, built on the same research: every book’s number and the data behind the pick. Follow him on X at @Loughy.
Articles by Dave Loughran
49ers vs Rams Kalshi Player Props: Who Gets Fed In Melbourne
Three Kalshi contracts for the Melbourne opener: Christian McCaffrey's catches, Matthew Stafford's touchdown passes and Puka Nacua's yards, with the sportsbook number beside each one.
49ers vs Rams Props: Who Gets Fed In Melbourne
Three player props for the NFL's first game in Australia: Puka Nacua against zone coverage, Christian McCaffrey against the defense that feeds running backs, and Matthew Stafford's touchdown price, with every book's number.
Bears vs Panthers Kalshi Picks: Carolina Lost Both Starting Tackles
Carolina opens as a division champion without either starting tackle, and the market made the visitor a 59-cent favorite in Charlotte. The spread hasn't moved off 2.5 since May, and that's the bet.
Browns vs Jaguars Kalshi Picks: A Touchdown Isn't Enough
Jacksonville is a 79-cent favorite over a Cleveland team starting a quarterback who hasn't played since October 2024. The spread crossed a touchdown over the summer, and at -7.5 a touchdown isn't enough.
Buccaneers vs Bengals Kalshi Picks: Cincinnati Couldn't Stop Anyone
Cincinnati is a 65-cent favorite laying 3.5 at home with Joe Burrow back, behind a defense that allowed 6.3 yards a play last year, worst in the league, against a Tampa Bay pass defense that ranked 27th. The bet is the total, and the side only at 3.
Cardinals vs Chargers Kalshi Picks: The Money Is On The Cardinals
The Chargers are an 82-cent favorite laying 10.5 at home against a three-win team with a new coach, and most of the DraftKings money is on the three-win team. The line has moved their way, too.
Commanders vs Eagles Kalshi Picks: The Pass Rush Isn't There Yet
Philadelphia lays 4.5 at home, a point less than it opened, against a Washington team without its left tackle, its top three edge rushers, and with a play-caller who has never called a play. The Eagles' pass defense was last season's outlier and its people are back.
Cowboys vs Giants Kalshi Picks: Dallas Has Won Five Of The Last Six
Dallas is a 60-cent favorite on Sunday night with the league's best passing offense against a Giants defense that allowed 5.6 yards a carry, and the Cowboys have won five of the last six in the series. The side, and the number that matters.
Falcons vs Steelers Kalshi Picks: Atlanta Named Its Quarterback
Pittsburgh is a 63-cent favorite in the McCarthy era's first game and Aaron Rodgers' last opener, against the one team in football that still hasn't named a quarterback. The line finally moved. The plan, with the triggers stated.
NFL Week 1 Kalshi Player Props: Six Contracts That Stick Out
Six Kalshi contracts for Sunday: Jordan Love, Chris Olave, Quinshon Judkins, Colston Loveland, Cade Otton and Rashod Bateman, with the sportsbook number beside each one.
NFL Week 1 Player Props: Six Numbers That Stick Out
Six Sunday props with every book's number: Jordan Love, Chris Olave, Quinshon Judkins, Colston Loveland, Cade Otton and Rashod Bateman.
Patriots vs Seahawks Kalshi Player Props: Seattle Gives Up Catches, Not Yards
Three Kalshi contracts for Wednesday's opener in Seattle: Hunter Henry's catches, A.J. Brown's catches and a no on Rhamondre Stevenson's carries, with the sportsbook number beside each one.
Patriots vs Seahawks Props: The Middle Of The Field Is Open
Three Patriots-Seahawks player props for Wednesday night: Hunter Henry against a Seattle defense missing its safeties, an under on A.J. Brown's yards against the defense that gives up catches instead, and an under on the running back the market just promoted.
Ravens vs Colts Kalshi Picks: The New Coach Gives Points On Day One
Baltimore is a 63-cent favorite laying 3.5 on the road in the first game its head coach has ever run, against a quarterback who spent nine months rehabbing an Achilles to be there.
Saints vs Lions Kalshi Picks: Detroit Is Laying Exactly Seven
Detroit is a 73-cent favorite laying a touchdown at home with a play-caller in his first game, against a Saints team that went 9-8 against the spread and brings a 45-sack pass rush against a quarterback who was sacked 38 times. The side, and why Kalshi's version is better than the book's.
Bills vs Texans Picks: Houston Won The Last One Without Stroud
The market can't pick a favorite: Bills 50 cents, Texans 51 on Kalshi, DraftKings Bills -1.5. The last time Josh Allen played in Houston he was sacked eight times, and Houston did it without C.J. Stroud.
Broncos vs Chiefs Picks: Mahomes Is Back, Nine Months To The Day
A six-win team is a 56-cent favorite over a fifteen-win team on Monday night, because the quarterback is back nine months to the day after knee surgery. The side I'm on, and the case against it.
Dolphins vs Raiders Picks: One Coach Says Wins Don't Matter
Las Vegas won three games last season and is a 63-cent favorite anyway, because Miami's new coach says this year won't be measured in wins. The number I'd wait for, and where I'm out.
GTA 6 Release Date: Traders Are Betting November Holds
GTA 6 comes out November 19, 2026, on PS5 and Xbox. People with money on it price the date holding at about nine in ten, and the price has survived a stolen build and an earnings call. What Rockstar has said, what could still move it, and where PC stands.
Jets vs Titans Picks: The Favorite Shrank All Summer
Tennessee opened as a field-goal favorite in May and is laying 1.5 now, without a snap played. Robert Saleh opens against the team that fired him, the total is the lowest of Week 1, and the bet is the total.
Packers vs Vikings Picks: The Bad News Landed On Green Bay
Minnesota is a 53-cent favorite on Kalshi behind a quarterback with one preseason drive of tape, and Green Bay opens without its lead back and its best defender. The number I'd lay, and where I'm out.
Who Will Be the Democratic Nominee in 2028? Nobody Is Close to a Favorite
Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee? As of Sept. 3, 2026, Kalshi has Ossoff and Ocasio-Cortez tied at 17% and Newsom at 14%. No favorite yet.
49ers vs Rams Picks: The Home Team Flies In Last
The 49ers have been in Melbourne since Friday with George Kittle and Nick Bosa on the plane, and Kalshi's price is back exactly where it started. The Rams still lay more than a field goal on a field that belongs to neither team, and their charter lands the day before.
Patriots vs Seahawks Picks: The Champs Aren't The Same Team
The Super Bowl rematch opens the season on a Wednesday night in Seattle. The champions are the favorite, the Patriots coach says his team is not deep, and the number sits on the wrong side of a field goal.
Why Alani Bankhead (D) Will Win the Montana Senate Race
The steelman case for Alani Bankhead in Montana: a nominee her own party tried to push off the ballot, a one-cent price on the only Democratic label in the race, and the single path every blind model read names.
Why Andy Barr (R) Will Win the Kentucky Senate Race
The steelman case for Andy Barr in Kentucky: a 34-year Democratic drought, a bank-PAC war chest, a challenger the state has already measured, and a margin board that is the only real argument left on the page.
Why Cory Booker (D) Will Win the New Jersey Senate Race
The steelman case for Cory Booker in New Jersey: a $22.2 million war chest built on a record-breaking Senate speech, a challenger who reported $122.51 in the bank, and a margin ladder pricing him to beat his own best-ever win.
Why David Brock Smith (R) Will Win the Oregon Senate Race
His own party put him on a billboard as 'made in China' and he won anyway. The steelman case for David Brock Smith against a 4-cent price: the map math, the unpolled incumbent, and the one number that sinks it.
Why Jeff Merkley (D) Will Win the Oregon Senate Race
The steelman case for Jeff Merkley in Oregon: a senator working to ban election betting while the market prices him as a near-lock, a 235-to-1 cash advantage over David Brock Smith, and a margin ladder that holds the only live question left in the race.
Why Jon Husted (R) Will Win the Ohio Senate Race
Kalshi odds and the full case for Jon Husted (R) in the Ohio Senate race: Husted vs Brown, the Sept. 28 retrial, the polls, the money and the record.
Why Justin Murphy (R) Will Win the New Jersey Senate Race
He won the Republican primary with about a hundred dollars to his name. Cory Booker is sitting on a 22 million dollar war chest. The steelman case for the two-cent contract, priced live.
Why Kevin Hern (R) Will Win the Oklahoma Senate Race
The matchup is set: N'Kiyla Thomas won Tuesday's runoff, Kevin Hern trades near certainty, and the margin ladder lists only Republican blowouts. The steelman case, priced live.
Why Larry E. Marker (R) Will Win the New Mexico Senate Race
No Republican even filed for the ballot, then 31,220 New Mexicans hand-wrote Larry Marker onto it. His contract costs about a nickel. The steelman case, priced live.
Why Marquita Bradshaw (D) Will Win the Tennessee Senate Race
A nominee with a thousand dollars in the bank just won a majority of a five-way primary. The live board, the steelman case for the rematch, and the ledger stacked against it.
Why Pete Ricketts (R) Will Win the Nebraska Senate Race
The steelman case for Pete Ricketts holding Nebraska: a ballot with no Democrat on it, a same-ballot experiment that already measured both men, and a blind model panel that reads the race stronger than the market does.
Why Scott Colom (D) Will Win the Mississippi Senate Race
The steelman case for Scott Colom in Mississippi: a senator who blocked him from the federal bench and now has to beat him at the ballot box, a three-point spring poll, and a runoff rule that gives the underdog a second door.
Why Sherrod Brown (D) Will Win the Ohio Senate Race
The Republican Senate committee put a fatal Ohio crash into an anti-Brown ad. Two fact-checkers and the victims' family answered in the same week. The contract on Democrats taking this seat back asks 56 cents, and the strongest version of that case is priced live.
Why Susan Collins (R) Will Win the Maine Senate Race
The steelman case for Susan Collins in Maine: a five-term incumbent trailing by low single digits, an Appropriations gavel that writes checks to all 16 counties, and the ghost of a 2020 race she trailed in nearly every poll and won by 8.6 points.
Why Troy Jackson (D) Will Win the Maine Senate Race
The steelman case for Troy Jackson in Maine: a fifth-generation logger who lost a primary in June, took the nomination in July, and led a five-term incumbent in three straight August polls.
Brazil Election 2026: Trump's Tariff Is Boosting Lula
Flávio Bolsonaro told the US Trade Representative in writing that a new tariff would strengthen Lula, and asked Trump to wait until after October. Trump signed it anyway. The polls now call the runoff a coin flip; the market does not.
Israel Election 2026: Bennett Calls Netanyahu an 'Anarchist'
Naftali Bennett called Netanyahu 'almost an anarchist' the same weekend the Shin Bet refused Gadi Eisenkot a bodyguard. The polls leave Eisenkot two seats short of a majority, and the market has priced him anyway.
MA-6 Primary: DraftKings Cash Floods Moulton's Open Seat
DraftKings wrote a $250,000 check to the super PAC behind Dan Koh, and the market has him as a heavy favorite in a six-way race with no independent poll.
MA-8 Primary: The Globe Backed Roath. Bettors Bought Lynch
The Boston Globe endorsed Patrick Roath and a David Hogg super PAC mailed for him, yet the money on the Sept. 1 primary moved toward Stephen Lynch all week.
Markey vs Moulton: 'I'll Vote for the Old Man' Voters Say
Ed Markey is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Massachusetts. The AP called it over Seth Moulton at 8:31 p.m. on September 1, and Kalshi settled his contract, quoted at 98.8 cents the day before, at a dollar 33 minutes later.
NH-01 Primary: Shaheen Fell From Favorite to Coin Flip
One Saint Anselm poll turned Stefany Shaheen from a heavy favorite into a coin flip against Maura Sullivan, and the two campaigns answered with the ugliest ad exchange of the New Hampshire cycle.
Sununu vs Brown: Trump's Pick Skips the Last Debate
New Hampshire votes Tuesday and Kalshi has John E. Sununu at 99 cents to be the Republican Senate nominee over Scott Brown. The only number left to trade is his margin: 40 points trades near 50 cents, 50 points near 25, and the November seat sits at 18 cents for Republicans.
Providence Mayor Primary: 'Defund' Ad Meets Mamdani Wave
No Providence mayor has ever lost a primary, yet Brett Smiley trades under 50 cents on both books after one 3 a.m. trade. The only poll has him ahead of David Morales.
Rhode Island Governor Primary: McKee Says 'I Am the State'
Kalshi went into the eve of the Sept. 9 Rhode Island governor primary with Helena Foulkes at 99.5 cents and Gov. Dan McKee at 0.3 bid. The closing board, three final polls, a record early vote, and how the contract settles once the AP calls it.
Germany's AfD Is One Vote From Its First State Government
The AfD is polling at 43% in Saxony-Anhalt and the market has stopped arguing about who finishes first on September 6. The live question is whether it wins a majority outright, and that turns on the Greens clearing 5%.
Why Abdul El-Sayed (D) Will Win the Michigan Senate Race
The steelman case for Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan: a seven-point August poll, an opponent who has already lost this race once, and the honest reason the Jewish-voter file is the risk the case has to beat.
Why Annie Andrews (D) Will Win South Carolina's Senate Race
The Republican runoff resolved on August 25, and Annie Andrews finally has an opponent: an appointed senator who told a debate audience that national security is not her thing. The steelman case for the cheap side of the board, argued from the sourced record.
Why Darline Graham (R) Will Win South Carolina's Senate Race
The steelman case for Darline Graham in South Carolina: a nomination called Tuesday night, a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1998, an 88-cent price, and a price-blind model panel that reads her side even stronger than the market.
Why Ed Markey (D) Will Win the MA Senate Primary
The steelman case for Ed Markey in the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary: a 96-cent market, a 28-point August poll break, and a generational challenge he has beaten before.
Why James Talarico (D) Will Win the Texas Senate Race
The steelman case for James Talarico in Texas: a lead one pollster calls pretty historic, a record-smashing war chest, a wounded opponent, and the honest reason a price-blind model panel still discounts it.
Why Jim Priest (D) Will Win The Oklahoma Senate Primary
Jim Priest trades near 11 cents on Kalshi to win tonight's Oklahoma Democratic Senate runoff against N'Kiyla Thomas. The steelman case for the cheap side of the board, the debate fight that defined the race, and what the model panel sees that the price does not.
Why John Deaton (R) Will Win Massachusetts' Senate Primary
The MassGOP endorsed John Deaton ten months before the primary, and the Boston Globe's headline said why: to avoid one. The September ballot now carries a single Republican name, and the market has priced the ending.
Why Karishma Manzur (D) Will Win the NH Senate Primary
The steelman case for Karishma Manzur in the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary: a three-cent market, a billboard in Chris Pappas's hometown, a 28 in the only poll, and the day someone bet 19 thousand dollars that she loses.
Why Michael Whatley (R) Will Win the NC Senate Race
The steelman case for Michael Whatley in North Carolina: a race one August poll now has at five points, a registration flip, an eight-cent price, and a price-blind model panel that reads the long shot as three times livelier than the market.
Why Mike Rogers (R) Will Win the Michigan Senate Race
Three August polls, three different answers. Mike Rogers holds the only survey that shows him ahead, a 41-cent price, and an enthusiasm gap the case has to beat.
Why Mike Rounds (R) Will Win the South Dakota Senate Race
Trump once swore he would never endorse 'this jerk' again. Now Mike Rounds has the endorsement, a six-to-one money edge, and a challenger field that thinned out in August.
Why Raymond McKay (R) Will Win the Rhode Island Senate Primary
Twelve years after Warwick took him to federal court to keep him off a Senate ballot, Raymond McKay is the only Republican left on Rhode Island's September 9 primary ballot, and the market prices it that way.
Why Scott Brown (R) Will Win the NH Senate Primary
The steelman case for Scott Brown in the New Hampshire Republican Senate primary: a 3-cent market, a Trump endorsement that went to the man who called Trump a loser, and a front-runner who will not take a WMUR debate.
Why Seth Moulton (D) Will Win The Mass. Senate Primary
In May the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary was a five-point race. One week out, the challenger with more cash in the bank than the incumbent trades under a nickel.
OpenAI IPO: The CFO Named The Year. The Market Named Spring
OpenAI's finance chief told staff the company goes public in 2027. The people with money on the question agree with her, and this week they told you which season.
Aaron Judge Home Run Odds: A Penny On The Fallen King
Judge hasn't swung a bat since May 31, his GM won't promise he's back this year — and the home run title he owned is now a four-man brawl the market can't call.
NL MVP Odds: The Wrigley Night The Market Turned On Ohtani
At the All-Star break, Ohtani was a lock for a third straight MVP. Then he and Pete Crow-Armstrong traded haymakers at Wrigley — and the money switched sides.
NFL Hot Seat Odds: Why The Money Piled On Mike Vrabel
He went 14-3 and took the Patriots to a Super Bowl. So why is there $396,000 riding on whether Mike Vrabel is out of a job before September 1?
Valkyries Title Odds: The Expansion Team Bettors Won't Fade
A second-year expansion team just clinched a playoff berth sitting second in the WNBA — and the market prices them ahead of New York. The Lynx problem is the catch.
Harry Kane Ballon D'Or Odds: He Lost Twice. Bettors Shrugged
Kane lost the World Cup semifinal and the Champions League semifinal. The market made him a 63-cent favorite anyway. Here's the season that broke the formula.
Jeremiah Smith Heisman Odds: Traders Doubt A Generational WR
He's the consensus best player in college football, on the No. 1 team, with $6.4M traded on the Heisman board. So why is his price stuck at six cents?
Kalshi Fantasy Football Rankings: A Draft Board Money Built
Forty million people are drafting off the same expert lists. Kalshi's stat-leader markets are a rankings sheet built by people risking real money — and it disagrees in useful places.
NFL Preseason Props On Kalshi: Real Money, Fake Football
Kalshi is pricing rookie QB passing yards in games that don't count. Tonight in Pittsburgh, with Rodgers in a hoodie, that might be the sharpest board of the weekend.
MLB Worst Record Odds: The Race Nobody Wants To Win
The A's fell from .500 to the basement in two months, the owner gets booed in his own park, and there's a market on which team finishes last. It's closer than you'd think.
Chambliss Heisman Odds: Bettors Back A QB Who Beat The NCAA
Zero D-I offers. A Division II title. A courtroom win over the NCAA just to play this season. Now Trinidad Chambliss carries the second-biggest Heisman bet on Kalshi.
AOC 2028 Odds: Traders Repriced The Party's Nightmare
Within 48 hours of Tuesday's primaries, Kalshi's 2028 Democratic board reshuffled — and the name now at the top is the one the party establishment spends millions against.
Bass Vs Raman Odds: The Fake Poll Kalshi Didn't Buy
A fabricated poll showed Karen Bass up 12 in the LA mayor race. She shared it. Kalshi's price never moved a cent — here's what the market saw that Twitter didn't.
Becerra Vs Hilton Odds: Who Bet On Becerra?
Becerra trades at 96 cents to be California's next governor. The strangest subplot: reporting that Kalshi-linked money backed his campaign while Kalshi priced his race.
Collins Vs Jackson Odds: Kalshi Fades A 30-Year Survivor
Susan Collins has survived every wave since 1996. Kalshi's bettors now make her a 2-to-1 underdog against a fifth-generation logger — while the models still say she wins.
Epstein Files Odds: The Market Prices A Contempt Showdown
A federal judge says the attorney general conceded violating the Epstein files law. The DOJ disputes it. Kalshi's markets are pricing what comes out next — carefully.
Fed Rate Hike Odds: Trump's Own Pick Might Hike On Him
Payrolls printed 162,000 against a 53,000 consensus at 8:30 a.m. Friday, and within 20 seconds Kalshi's September hike and hold contracts had both printed 50 cents. By 7:18 p.m. ET the quarter-point hike led at 51 to 52¢, the hold sat at 47 to 48¢, and the president was asking for a cut.
Mamdani Tax Odds: Trump, A Judge, And A Coin Flip
A judge halted Mamdani's pied-à-terre tax. The city un-halted it in hours. Trump wants it 'stopped, NOW!' Kalshi calls the court fight a coin flip. Here's the case.
Paxton Vs Talarico Odds: Kalshi Makes Texas A Coin Flip
Texas hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1988. After everything Ken Paxton survived, Kalshi's bettors now price the seat at 50-50. Here's the whole file.
Socialists Keep Winning Primaries. The Odds Won't Budge
Socialists keep toppling Democratic incumbents, and Kalshi's midterm prices barely move. What the betting markets know, and what they just got badly wrong.
Sullivan Vs Peltola Odds: Kalshi Moved Before The Pundits
Mary Peltola beat the sitting senator outright in Tuesday's primary. The raters still say toss-up. Kalshi's bettors already made Dan Sullivan an underdog — at 100x volume.
Trump Impeachment Odds: Kalshi Prices Round Three
The bettors on Kalshi now make a third Trump impeachment more likely than not. The dates tell you exactly when they think it happens — and who has to win first.
Why Angie Nixon (D) Will Win The FL Senate Race: Kalshi Odds
Why Angie Nixon will win the Florida Senate race: live Kalshi odds after her upset of Alexander Vindman, her 8-cent line's funded book, and the bear case.
Why Ashley Moody (R) Will Win: Kalshi Odds
Ashley Moody trades at 93 cents on Kalshi to win Florida's 2026 Senate race over Angie Nixon. The full board, the margin ladder, and the honest bear case.
Why Harriet Hageman (R) Will Win the Wyoming Senate Race
Harriet Hageman vs James Byrd: why Hageman wins Wyoming's 2026 Senate race, plus the Kalshi odds, the margin-of-victory ladder, and the bear case.
Why James Byrd Will Win the Wyoming Senate Race
James Byrd trades at about 2 cents against Harriet Hageman on Kalshi's 2026 Wyoming Senate board. The underdog case, the margin ladder, and the live odds.
Fed Rate Cut in September? Traders Are Betting on a Hike
The Fed meets September 15-16. A cut is still a penny on Kalshi, and after Friday's 162,000-job August payroll report the quarter-point hike is the favorite again, 51 to 52 cents over a hold at 47 to 48. The first meeting where a cut is bid above a penny is October, at 3 cents bid, 4 ask.
Trump's Next Press Secretary: The Favorite Keeps Changing
Fox News announced at 1:20 p.m. Thursday that it had parted ways with Maria Bartiromo. Kalshi listed her for the press secretary job the same minute, traders paid 40 cents within 17 minutes, and two denials followed quickly. She is 14 cents anyway.
Can Kalshi Change Market Rules After You Bet? What The Rulebook Allows
Can Kalshi change rules after market close? What Rule 7.2, emergency Rule 2.8, and the CFTC's 10-day filing clock actually allow, quoted from the rulebook.
Prediction Market Insider Trading: What Kalshi Actually Bans
Insider trading on prediction markets is banned in writing and policed by real cases, yet a legal gray zone survives. Here is where the line actually sits.
How People Lose Money on Kalshi: The Steamroller Trade
A trader's $700,000 prediction market loss shows how a big binary risk hides in an all-or-nothing contract until settlement, and how to size for it.
Trump Travel Prediction Market: Insider Information?
Trump travel prediction market insider information, explained: what a visit contract actually settles on, the public trail behind sharp calls, and the rules.
Why Byron Donalds (R) Will Win The Florida Governor Primary
Byron Donalds trades near 98 cents on Kalshi to win Florida's Republican governor primary on August 18, 2026. The ballot math and the honest bear case.
Are Prediction Markets Dangerous Gambling? Why They Feel Smarter Than A Bet
Are prediction markets dangerous gambling? They can be, but not for the reason you think. Feeling smart is what removes your guardrails.
How To File A CFTC Reparations Complaint About Kalshi
How to file a CFTC reparations complaint about a Kalshi settlement: the exchange review, the free CFTC form, then Form 30 fees and the eligibility catch.
How Much Money Should You Put On Kalshi? Bankroll Rules For Event Contracts
How much money should I put on Kalshi? A bankroll answer in percentages: risk capital only, a 1-5% cap per market, and math that survives losing streaks.
Kalshi Profit And Loss Tracking: Your Real P&L, Fees Included
Kalshi profit and loss tracking, done right: the exact fee formula, the FIFO method Kalshi uses, the monthly refresh gotcha, and a simple template.
Kalshi Vs Polymarket Rules: Same Event, Different Winners
Kalshi vs Polymarket rules can settle the same event two ways. How source, deadline, and definition differences decide winners.
How Polymarket's UMA Oracle Settles Disputes — And How A Whale Vote Flipped One
How Polymarket's UMA oracle settles disputes: bonded proposals, a 2-hour challenge window, token-weighted votes, and the whale vote that flipped a $7M market.
Kalshi Market Pending Settlement? The 24-Hour Review Rule
Kalshi market pending settlement? What happens between close and payout: the 3-hour norm, the 24-hour Rule 7.1 review clock, and when it is time to act.
Kalshi Bet Marked Lost After Team Won? The NFL 9-Win Case
Kalshi bet marked lost after team won? Provisional grades, stat corrections, and the exchange's own regrading rules, explained through a real 9th-win complaint.
Kalshi Steelers Over 8.5 Settlement: Refunded, Not Paid
Kalshi Steelers over 8.5 settlement dispute, explained: why a winning NFL win-total position showed a refund instead of a $1 payout, and what the rulebook says.
Paper Trading Prediction Markets Before You Risk Real Money
Paper trading prediction markets is the free practice loop most traders skip. Here is how to log hypothetical trades, grade yourself.
Prediction Market Spread Cost: The Spread Is The Vig
Prediction market spread cost explained: the bid-ask spread is the real vig. A 3-cent spread means a 103% book, and 'fee-free' markets still charge it.
Why Ben Ray Lujan (D) Will Win The New Mexico Senate Race
The case for why Ben Ray Lujan will win New Mexico's 2026 Senate race: what Kalshi's 97-cent price says, the margin ladder, and the honest bear case.
Why Bert Mizusawa Will Win The Virginia Senate Race
Why Bert Mizusawa will win the Virginia Senate race: Kalshi prices him in single digits, and the fetched numbers a Republican case runs on are below.
Why Bill Hagerty Will Win The Tennessee Senate Race
Why Bill Hagerty will win Tennessee's 2026 Senate race: what Kalshi's near-certain price says, the all-Republican margin ladder, and the honest bear case.
Why Charles Booker (D) Will Win The Kentucky Senate Race
The case for Charles Booker winning Kentucky's 2026 Senate race: what Kalshi's 7-cent price misses, what the margin ladder implies, and the bear case.
Why Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) Will Win Mississippi Senate Race
The case for why Cindy Hyde-Smith will win Mississippi's 2026 Senate race: why the 92-cent Kalshi price may be too cheap, plus the margin ladder and bear case.
Why Kurt Alme (R) Will Win the Montana Senate Race
The steelman case for Kurt Alme holding Montana on November 3, 2026: the deadline to unsplit the opposition passed on August 10 with the field still split three ways, and the poll funded by his opposition published the number that shows why that matters.
Core CPI Odds: Did July Inflation Cool? The Print Vs. The Market
Core CPI prediction market odds: a graded AI panel prices Kalshi's next core inflation print and shows its scored July record, updated for the Sept 11 release.
Does Kalshi Have Position Limits? Max Bet Sizes And Why They Exist
Yes, and the real numbers sit in CFTC filings: hard caps on some markets, accountability levels on others. The actual max sizes, and what limits cannot do.
Kalshi Postponed Game Rules: What Happens To Your Market?
Rain delays and venue changes hit contracts differently: a 48-hour clock, an NFL 55-minute clause and a shootout trap decide whether your market voids.
Kalshi Market Rules: How A 90-Cent Yes Settled No
Kalshi market rules run three layers deep: the one-line summary, the expanded rules, and the contract terms PDF that decides settlement. Read all three first.
Next James Bond: The Unknown Who Crashed the Shortlist
A 31-year-old unknown named Jack Barton went from unlisted to market favorite for the next James Bond in six hours on Aug. 26. What the studio said, and why.
NFL Preseason Week 1 Thursday Picks: Six Games, One Board
Dave Loughran's NFL preseason Week 1 Thursday picks for all six Aug. 13 games: Titans -6 at San Francisco is the featured play, with Bengals -6.5, Patriots +2.5, and three leans priced against the live Kalshi board.
Why Jon Ossoff (D) Will Win The Georgia Senate Race
The full case for Jon Ossoff winning Georgia's 2026 Senate race: what Kalshi's 91-cent price says, the margin-of-victory ladder, and the honest bear case.
Elon Musk Net Worth: Trillionaire Again Before New Year?
Forbes had Elon Musk at $862.4 billion on August 26, about $170 billion off the floor he hit after posting (Former) Trillionaire. The people with money on the question price the road back to $1.4 trillion at about one chance in five.
Who Will Win the House in 2026? Where the Big Money Went
The favorite's price has not moved in a month. The long shot's contract took nearly all of the day's trading, including a half-million-contract sweep in a single second that went nowhere. What the polls, the special elections and the redrawn maps say about who wins the House.
Kalshi Fee Schedule: The 129 Markets That Cost More To Trade
The 7% trading-fee formula is only the start: maker fees hit specific series, MLB trades at half rate and a few markets are free. Where your fees land.
Kalshi Fees Vs. Sportsbook Vig: Which Costs You More?
Kalshi fees vs sportsbook vig, compared honestly: what the 7% fee formula really charges, what -110 juice really costs, and which venue is cheaper by market.
Why Ashley Moody (R) Will Win the Florida Senate Primary
The steelman case for Ashley Moody in the Florida Republican Senate primary: a 98-cent Kalshi price, a ballot none of her priced rivals ever joined, and a nomination the market treats as already decided.
Why Chris Pappas (D) Will Win the NH Senate Primary
The steelman case for Chris Pappas in the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary: a 96-cent market, a four-win record in the state's swing district, and a six-name board where every serious rival's line went quiet.
Why John E. Sununu (R) Will Win the NH Senate Primary
The steelman case for John E. Sununu in the New Hampshire Republican Senate primary: a 94-cent market, a seat he is the last Republican to have won, and a four-week runway with no live challenger on the board.
Why John Shulli Will Win The Delaware Republican Senate Primary
Why John Shulli will win the Delaware Republican Senate primary: the live Kalshi book, his fundraising lead over Michael Katz, and the honest bear case.
Why Ken Paxton (R) Will Win the Texas Senate Race
The steelman case for Ken Paxton winning Texas's 2026 Senate race: a 32-year statewide streak, a 27-point runoff statement, a margin ladder that leans his way, and the honest reason the market still has him behind.
Why Michael Katz (R) Will Win the Delaware Senate Primary
The steelman case for Michael Katz in the Delaware Republican Senate primary: an 89-cent Kalshi ask, a convention that broke four-to-one his way, and a two-man ballot the state closed in July.
Why Michele Tafoya Will Win The Minnesota Senate Race
Michele Tafoya trades at 8.3 cents on Kalshi to win the 2026 Minnesota Senate race vs Peggy Flanagan. The steelman case, full board, and what 8 cents pays.
Why Peggy Flanagan (D) Will Win the Minnesota Senate Race
The steelman case for Peggy Flanagan winning Minnesota's open Senate seat: a primary called overnight, a 92-cent Kalshi price, two decades of DFL Senate wins, and the one number that argues against her.
SAVE Act: What Stands Between the Bill and Trump's Desk
Five Senate floor votes since March, none within eight of 60, and a 2 a.m. deal that sent everyone home until mid-September. What the SAVE Act does, why it keeps failing, and where the money went this week.
Why Angie Craig Lost The Minnesota Senate Primary
Angie Craig lost the MN DFL Senate primary to Peggy Flanagan, 59.0 to 39.4. How the 29-cent money case failed and what the 70/29 Kalshi board got right.
Why Billy Benavidez Will Win Wyoming's Democratic Senate Primary
Why Billy Benavidez will win the Wyoming Democratic Senate primary: the live Kalshi book, the two-man ballot math, and the honest bear case.
Why Jack Reed Will Win The Rhode Island Democratic Senate Primary
Why Jack Reed will win the Rhode Island Democratic Senate primary: the live Kalshi book, five wins never below 63%, the money gap, and the honest bear case.
Why Mark Warner Will Win The Virginia Senate Race
Why Mark Warner will win the Virginia Senate race: Kalshi prices him near 96 cents, and the fetched numbers behind that price are below.
Why Michele Tafoya (R) Will Win the Minnesota Senate Primary
The steelman case for Michele Tafoya in the Minnesota Republican Senate primary: a three-to-one money lead over the endorsed candidate, the only general-election polling anchor in the field, and a Kalshi board that prices every rival under a penny on primary day.
Why N'Kiyla Thomas Will Win Oklahoma's Democratic Senate Primary
Why N'Kiyla Thomas will win the Oklahoma Democratic Senate primary: the live Kalshi runoff prices, the June first-round math, and the honest bear case.
Why Rachel Fetty Anderson (D) Will Win The West Virginia Senate Race
The case for Rachel Fetty Anderson winning West Virginia's 2026 Senate race: what Kalshi's 1-3 cent price assumes, midterm base rates, and the bear case.
Why Ralph Norman Will Win The South Carolina Senate Primary
Ralph Norman advanced to South Carolina's Aug. 25 Senate runoff against Darline Graham Nordone. The poll, the runoff math, and the case he completes it.
Why Roy Cooper (D) Will Win The North Carolina Senate Race
Why Roy Cooper will win the North Carolina Senate race: Kalshi prices him at 91 cents, the margin ladder prices a comfortable win, and the bear case is below.
Why Shelley Moore Capito (R) Will Win The West Virginia Senate Race
Why Shelley Moore Capito will win the West Virginia Senate race: Kalshi prices her near 97 cents, and the fetched numbers behind that price are below.
Wisconsin Governor Race 2026: One Poll, Two Answers
The first poll since the primary says the race is either a modest Crowley lead or a dead tie, depending on which voters you count. The certified count, the money, the independents and the people trading on the outcome each read it differently.
Prediction Market Whales: How One Trader Moves The Price
One large order can move a thin market nine points in seconds. How order books absorb size, when a spike self-corrects, and mechanics vs manipulation.
Kevin Durant Next Team: The Trade Nobody Is Making
Kevin Durant is under contract in Houston, and no reporter has put a trade on the record since early July. Then a half-million-view X rumor bid Boston from a 1-cent floor to 14 and knocked the stay price from a 91-cent close to 86-89. What the tape actually shows.
Ethereum Price: Can ETH Beat Its January High Before 2027?
Ethereum is back near $2,500 after a 31 percent month, and the contract on a new 2026 high has tripled in eight trading days. The live price, the week's biggest trades, and what the forecasters make of it.
Avengers: Doomsday Cast: The Names Marvel Won't Confirm
Marvel has put roughly 30 actors in chairs for Doomsday. Maguire, Jackman and Reynolds are not among them. Who's official, who's rumor, what the money says.
Why Mike Collins (R) Will Win The Georgia Senate Race
The full case for Mike Collins winning Georgia's 2026 Senate race: why an 8-cent Kalshi price may be too cheap, what the AI panel says, and the bear case.
California Governor Race 2026: Who Paid for the Close Poll
One August poll has the race inside ten points, and the fine print says the Republican's campaign paid for it. Every independent survey since the June primary, the certified primary count, the money and the people trading on the outcome say something else.
How To Trade NFL On Kalshi: Make Or Take, Explained
What NFL cent prices mean, how they map to sportsbook moneylines, and when making a price beats taking one. A full walkthrough of game and futures markets.
iPhone 18 Release Date: Apple Set a Date, Not for This Phone
Apple sent its September 9 invitation on August 26, and the standard iPhone 18 is not expected to be in it. What Apple has said, what the supply chain says, and where the market puts the date.
2028 Presidential Election: The Race Nobody Has Entered Yet
Nobody has declared, and the people with money on the question have already picked a top four. One of them says he has zero interest. One says she has not ruled it out. One got a huge buy at 1:39 in the morning.
2028 Republican Nominee: Cruz Says It Isn't Settled Yet
The vice president holds the top rung and the secretary of state the second. On August 26 a Texas senator said out loud that he wants the job, and the people with money on the question barely moved.
Traders Are Betting On A Quiet Fed. The Machines Are Not So Sure
A quarter-point September hike is 55 to 56 cents on Kalshi against 44 to 45 for no change, and the lead widened in the Fed's blackout week with Brent above $100. Eight AI models priced blind on August 22 said 71.5% no change.
How To Play Sleeper Picks: Review + Promo Code
How to play Sleeper Picks: the over/under pick'em app's dynamic pricing, 100x payouts, deposit bonus, and whether it's actually worth it.
2026 Midterm Election Odds: Every Race On One Board
Kalshi prices both chambers and all 35 Senate seats. Seven AI models priced the same four-way board blind and landed 15 points below the market on the Senate.
Trump GM Speech Markets on Kalshi: Betting He Says Windmill
Kalshi runs 34 mention markets on Trump's speech at GM Milford today. Six AI models scored every one, grounded for the first time in 1,113 settled contracts.
What Will Trump Say at the Correspondents’ Dinner? AI Odds
Kalshi runs 34 word-and-phrase markets on tonight's Trump Correspondents' Dinner speech. Seven AI models scored every one, price-blind.
How Long Will Trump Speak at the WHCD? AI vs the Market
Kalshi's 15-rung ladder prices tonight's Trump speech near 30 minutes. Seven AI models priced the same ladder blind - then the market moved onto their curve.
AI vs. The Crowd: The 5 Biggest Disagreements On Tonight's Trump Speech
Hours before Trump takes the podium, seven AI models and the Kalshi crowd still disagree on five phrases. The gaps, the movement, and what settles it tonight.
Will the Correspondents’ Dinner Happen? A 98-Cent Market
Kalshi's quietest Correspondents' Dinner market has tracked the reschedule since April. Seven AI models weigh the last two cents of doubt.
DraftKings Vs FanDuel: Which Sportsbook Wins?
DraftKings vs FanDuel: which sportsbook wins? We compare bonuses, odds, limits, parlays, and rewards, and show why sharp bettors play both.
