Prices as of 1:15 PM ET, Thursday, September 10, 2026. Trade data from the Kalshi public trade feed; injuries from the NFL's official reports.
At 12:04 AM Eastern on Thursday, September 10, 2026, with both teams asleep in Melbourne, one Kalshi account bought about 200,000 contracts of "Rams win by over 4.5 points" at 48 cents, a 48% chance the Rams win by five or more. Thirty-four seconds later the same account bought about 200,000 contracts of "over 48.5 points" at the same 48 cents. Call it $192,000 in under a minute, on the two positions that say the Rams win comfortably and the game turns into a shootout.
Nothing had happened. Aaron Donald had been ruled out two days earlier. The Rams' final injury report had been public since Wednesday afternoon. It was 9:04 on Wednesday night in Los Angeles, and across the 185 markets Kalshi lists on this game, nobody else traded anything of size in that window.
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The Board
As of 1:15 PM ET, September 10 (Kalshi, cents = probability; sportsbook line from DraftKings unless noted):
| Outcome | Kalshi | Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|
| Rams win by 5 or more | 46–47¢ | Rams -3.5 (-118); Caesars -4.5 (-109) |
| Over 48.5 total points | 47–48¢ | Over 48.5 (-108) |
| 49ers +3.5 ("no" on Rams by over 3.5) | 49–50¢ | 49ers +3.5 (-102) |
The midnight buyer bought two coin flips and paid a little under a coin flip for each. The Rams are 64 to 65 cents to win the game, about -185 at a book, but "win by five" throws out every Rams win by a field goal or four, and the market puts about a third of their wins there. Every contract on this page settles on tonight's final score.
Who Bought 400,000 Contracts At 12:04 AM
The 12:04 order did not arrive as one print. It arrived as four, all stamped the same second. Two of them were 73,652 and 106,964 contracts, the other two 10,000 each. That is what one market order looks like when it sweeps several resting offers at one price. The over came in five pieces at 12:04:38, led by a single 139,051-contract fill. Five seconds after that, the same account appears to have tossed $47 on Rams tight end Terrance Ferguson to score the first touchdown at 4 cents, an afterthought on the way out the door.
Kalshi does not publish who is behind an order. The size and the same-second fills say one account. That is as far as the tape goes, and I am not going to pretend it goes further.
What the order did not do is move the price. Rams by over 4.5 traded at 48 before it and sat 46 bid, 47 ask thirteen hours later, with 373,000 contracts traded and 362,000 still open. The over was 47 bid, 48 ask at lunch, the number the buyer paid. Whoever this was got nothing for being early and pushed nothing by being big.
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The Other Side Showed Up Twice
An hour later, at 1:06 AM, somebody sold the Rams: 76,549 contracts of "no" on Rams by over 3.5, the 49ers +3.5 position, with a 50,000-contract block in the middle of it at 49 cents. At 12:10 PM a second seller did it again, 91,292 contracts at 50. About $83,000 saying the Rams do not win by four.
That is also the side I published on this game, the 49ers +3.5, and I wrote it before the tape did, so read the agreement as a coincidence. The book money is more split: at DraftKings, 71% of the spread tickets are on the Rams but only half the money, and 84% of the money on the total is on the under, the opposite of the midnight buyer.
What did he know that the 1:06 seller did not? Nothing that was not already public. The Associated Press reported on September 8 that Donald was ruled out and did not travel, quoting Sean McVay that the Rams were "making a decision that we think is best for him and for our team." Wednesday's report moved Myles Garrett from did-not-practice to full. For the 49ers, defensive tackle Alfred Collins is out, and George Kittle, Nick Bosa and Kyle Juszczyk were limited with no designation, which means they play. The buyer moved after the news, not ahead of it. If you want the same question one player at a time, the Kalshi player-prop board for this game is up, and Jake Hari already found the first-touchdown name the books missed.
What Moves The Price From Here
- The inactive lists, 7:05 PM ET. A Bosa or Kittle scratch is the one thing that pushes Rams by five through 50 cents.
- The gap between 4 and 5. The midnight buyer needs five. The 49ers buyers need the Rams held under four. A Rams win by exactly four beats both of them, and Kalshi prices that single number at about four cents, the distance between the 3.5 contract at 51 and the 4.5 contract at 47.
- The over. It has not moved off 47 all day. A buyer this size showing up a second time would move it.
- The final score. This one settles tonight, Thursday, September 10, when the game at the Melbourne Cricket Ground ends, a little after 11:30 PM Eastern.
Follow Dave on X: @Loughy.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Matthew Stafford photo by Sewageboy, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; George Kittle photo by All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA, licensed CC BY-SA 2.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
Prices quoted are live Kalshi market prices and DraftKings lines as of 1:15 PM ET, September 10, 2026, and will keep moving until these markets settle after the September 10, 2026 game. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange (18+; availability varies by state). OddsShopper covers prediction markets as an independent analyst: any model or panel figures referenced are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Betting involves risk; contracts can go to zero. Must be 21+ to wager at a sportsbook. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
