Prices as of Thursday, September 10, 2026, 4:46 a.m. ET, about 16 hours before kickoff at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
The busiest contract on Kalshi's first-touchdown board for the 49ers vs Rams game is Kaelon Black, a San Francisco running back the Stokastic Sims project for two fantasy points and about 1 percent of DraftKings showdown lineups. His contract asks 1 cent, has no bid under it, and has traded 29,920 contracts, more than Christian McCaffrey, Puka Nacua and Blake Corum combined, which at a penny apiece comes to $374. The biggest second on the whole board came at 12:30:09 a.m. ET on Thursday, when about 9,350 Black contracts filled at a penny. Nearly all of them are still held.
That is the shape of this board: two backs on top at 14 and 15 cents, a receiver at 10, and about $10,200 of real money spread across 31 contracts, 38 percent of it on the three running backs. The busiest contract by count is $374 of it. The 49ers vs Rams first TD odds below put every Kalshi contract beside the same player's first-touchdown-scorer price at up to 27 sportsbooks, in one table, then say where the exchange is the cheaper venue and where it is not.
Short version, if you're in a rushthe exchange beats DraftKings and FanDuel on the running backs and loses to the books on the tight ends. The one name it sells cheaper than every sportsbook is Blake Corum at 7 cents, $7.46 per $100 of payout against $9.00 at the best book, and he is the one first-touchdown contract I would buy tonight. The penny pile on Kaelon Black is $374 of lottery tickets and tells you nothing about tonight. On the anytime board the exchange beats DraftKings on almost every name and the sharpest books beat the exchange by a dollar or two, so shop it.
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The Board: Kalshi's First Touchdown Contracts Against The Sportsbooks
Kalshi prices in cents, yes bid / yes ask; a contract pays $1 if the player scores the game's first touchdown. Every price is shown as what it costs to collect $100 if he does: on Kalshi that is the ask plus the trade fee, and at a sportsbook it is the stake its first-touchdown-scorer price requires. "Anytime" is the same player's Kalshi ask to score at least once, for scale. Sportsbook prices are from the OddsShopper board at 4:47 a.m. ET, the cheapest of the up to 27 books posting each name; DraftKings and FanDuel prices are quoted in the text where they matter. Rows with a real bid are shown; the rest of the board is covered below the table.
| Player | Kalshi bid / ask | Kalshi, $100 payout costs | Kalshi anytime | Best book, $100 payout costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey (SF, RB) | 13 / 15¢ | $15.90 | 56¢ | $14.99 (NoVig) |
| Kyren Williams (LAR, RB) | 12 / 14¢ | $14.85 | 52¢ | $14.99 (NoVig) |
| Puka Nacua (LAR, WR) | 9 / 10¢ | $10.64 | 40¢ | $10.50 (NoVig) |
| Davante Adams (LAR, WR) | 1 / 9¢ | $9.58 | 42¢ | $9.52 (Bet99) |
| Blake Corum (LAR, RB) | 4 / 7¢ | $7.46 | 35¢ | $9.00 (Crypto.com) |
| George Kittle (SF, TE) | 2 / 6¢ | $6.40 | 22¢ | $5.56 (DraftKings) |
| Mike Evans (SF, WR) | 5 / 6¢ | $6.40 | 30¢ | $6.59 (Underdog) |
| Colby Parkinson (LAR, TE) | 2 / 4¢ | $4.27 | 15¢ | $3.85 (Fanatics) |
| Terrance Ferguson (LAR, TE) | 2 / 4¢ | $4.27 | 17¢ | $4.35 (Onyx Odds) |
| De'Zhaun Stribling (SF, WR) | 2 / 4¢ | $4.27 | 18¢ | $3.89 (Underdog) |
| 49ers D/ST | 2 / 3¢ | $3.21 | 10¢ | no first-TD line |
| Tyler Higbee (LAR, TE) | 2 / 3¢ | $3.21 | 14¢ | $2.78 (Circa) |
| Jordan Whittington (LAR, WR) | 1 / 2¢ | $2.14 | 6¢ | $1.96 (Circa) |
| Kyle Juszczyk (SF, FB) | 1 / 2¢ | $2.14 | 8¢ | $1.96 (Onyx Odds) |
| Jake Tonges (SF, TE) | 1 / 2¢ | $2.14 | 10¢ | $1.64 (Bet99) |
| Demarcus Robinson (SF, WR) | 1 / 2¢ | $2.14 | 9¢ | no first-TD line |
| Jordan James (SF, RB) | 1 / 2¢ | $2.14 | 7¢ | $1.16 (Circa) |
| Konata Mumpfield (LAR, WR) | 1 / 2¢ | $2.14 | 4¢ | $1.20 (NoVig) |
| Xavier Smith (LAR, WR) | 1 / 2¢ | $2.14 | 4¢ | $0.99 (Bet99) |
| Davis Allen (LAR, TE) | 1 / 2¢ | $2.14 | no line | $1.32 (Onyx Odds) |
| Max Klare (LAR, TE) | 1 / 2¢ | $2.14 | no line | $1.23 (BetRivers) |
Nine more contracts are quoted with no bid at all: Deebo Samuel Sr. (0 / 4¢, and 17,899 contracts traded anyway), Brock Purdy (0 / 3¢), the Rams D/ST (0 / 3¢), Luke Farrell and Tutu Atwell (0 / 2¢), and Matthew Stafford, Kaelon Black, CJ Daniels and No Touchdown at 0 / 1¢. A contract with a 0-cent bid has no buyer behind it; those asks are displayed prices, not markets. Kalshi also lists a second No Touchdown contract at 0 bid, 39 ask with nothing traded, which looks like a listing artifact rather than a price anyone will pay.
Kalshi charges its fee on the trade rather than inside the price, so 100 Corum contracts at 7 cents cost $7.46 all in for a $100 payout; the formula is on our Kalshi fees page.
Trade the number on ProphetX.ProphetX is a peer-to-peer sports exchange with prices shown as percentages, the same scale as the cents on this page. New users: Trade $50, Get $75 with code ODDS2. 18+, availability varies by state.
Where The Money Went
The board has traded about 205,000 contracts since it listed, which sounds like money until you price the contracts: buyers have paid about $10,200 in total for yes contracts across all 31 names. Kyren Williams leads with $1,881 of it, McCaffrey $1,380, Davante Adams $1,311, Nacua $899. The three running backs hold 38 percent of every dollar on the board. The 49ers names asking 2 cents or less, Black, Tonges, James and Robinson, are 35 percent of the contracts and 13 percent of the money, $1,278 in all. George Kittle, the 49ers' starting tight end at 6 cents, has drawn $36.
There is not much football behind the Black pile. The Sims give him 2.0 projected points against McCaffrey's 20.7. The price history shows takers buying yes at 1 cent, 29,920 times over, for a payout of $1.07 per $100 with the fee, and the sportsbooks agree he is roughly that unlikely: Circa's price works out to $1.52 per $100, DraftKings to $2.17. The exchange is the cheapest place to hold that ticket, which is probably the whole reason it is being held there. Adams is the opposite case: $1,311 of buyers behind a contract with a 1-cent bid, which means the money that bought him has nobody to sell to.
Signal Vs. Noise: What Moves The First Touchdown Tonight
Every price is the Kalshi contract in cents. Signal means it should change how you price this market. Noise means it looks like information and is not. Watch means real, but unresolved until the inactives or the coin toss.
| What | Kalshi price | Verdict | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Kaelon Black pile | 1¢ ask, no bid | NOISE | 29,920 contracts and $374. A penny lottery that did not move the price and says nothing about the first drive. |
| Corum against every sportsbook | 7¢ first touchdown | SIGNAL | $7.46 per $100 of payout on the exchange, $9.00 at the best book. The only all-book gap on a player with a role. |
| Corum's touchdowns, early or late | 7¢ first touchdown, 35¢ anytime | WATCH | A 20 percent share says the market expects his scores late. A goal-line carry on the opening drive says otherwise. |
| Kittle's snap count | 6¢ ask, 2¢ bid | WATCH | Back from an Achilles, limited all week, 661 contracts traded. Nobody is trading him. |
| Adams's quote | 9¢ ask, 1¢ bid | NOISE | $1,311 of buyers with no bid underneath is a listing, not a market. |
| The Rams as the favorite | 65¢ to win | SIGNAL | A 3.5-point favorite at the books. The extra red-zone trip is theirs. |
| A 10:35 a.m. kickoff after a 24-hour trip | no contract | WATCH | No data either way. Want a bid under you. |
Where The Exchange Is Cheaper, And Where The Books Are
Buy every contract on this board at the ask, skipping the stray 39-cent listing, and you pay about $1.21 for a payout that can only ever be $1, before the fee. That markup sits in different places name by name, and the name-by-name answer is the only one that matters when you are buying one contract.
The exchange beats the two biggest books on the backs. McCaffrey at 15 cents is $15.90 per $100 of payout with the fee, under the $16.67 DraftKings and FanDuel want, though NoVig sells the same payout for $14.99. Kyren Williams at 14 cents is $14.85, again under DraftKings and FanDuel and within 14 cents of NoVig. Nacua at 10 cents lands at $10.64, between NoVig's $10.50 and DraftKings' $11.11.
Nacua is the receiver the exchange prices third for the first touchdown. This is what that looks like when it lands, his first touchdown of last season, via Yahoo Fantasy.
The one name where the exchange beats every book by a margin is Corum. Seven cents plus the fee is $7.46 per $100 of payout; the best sportsbook price on our screen is Crypto.com at $9.00, DraftKings wants $10.00 and FanDuel $9.52. That is a gap of $1.54 per $100 against the best book and $2.54 against DraftKings, the widest on the board for any player with a role. Kaelon Black is technically a bigger percentage gap, but a 0-cent bid is not a market.
The books are cheaper on the tight ends. Kittle costs 6 cents on Kalshi, $6.40 with the fee, and DraftKings sells the same $100 payout for $5.56. Parkinson is $4.27 on the exchange against $3.85 at Fanatics, Higbee $3.21 against $2.78 at Circa, Stribling $4.27 against $3.89 at Underdog. If the player you want is a tight end or a third receiver, the first-touchdown-scorer odds screen shows every book's price and the sportsbook is the cheaper venue. If you want a back, the exchange is.
Davante Adams is the row to read twice. His contract is quoted 1 bid, 9 ask, an 8-cent spread, and he did not take a preseason snap, per the Rams' injury page on ESPN. Nine cents plus the fee is $9.58, $2.92 under DraftKings, but with a 1-cent bid there is nobody to sell to if the inactives change your mind. The books have a real price on him. The exchange lists him without really trading him.
Anytime Touchdown Odds: The Exchange Beats DraftKings, The Sharp Books Beat The Exchange
Kalshi's anytime contract, one or more touchdowns, in cents, bid / ask, against the same player's anytime-touchdown price at up to 27 sportsbooks from the OddsShopper board at 5:25 a.m. ET. Same payout terms as the first-touchdown board: what $100 of payout costs.
| Player | Kalshi bid / ask | Kalshi, $100 payout costs | Best book, $100 payout costs | DraftKings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 55 / 56¢ | $57.73 | $56.52 (NoVig) | $60.00 |
| Kyren Williams | 51 / 52¢ | $53.75 | $51.92 (NoVig) | $56.52 |
| Davante Adams | 41 / 42¢ | $43.71 | $43.48 (PolymarketUS) | $48.78 |
| Puka Nacua | 38 / 40¢ | $41.69 | $40.82 (Circa) | $43.48 |
| Blake Corum | 31 / 35¢ | $36.60 | $35.71 (Fliff) | $39.22 |
| Mike Evans | 29 / 30¢ | $31.47 | $30.96 (NoVig) | $34.48 |
| George Kittle | 5 / 22¢ | $23.21 | $23.04 (PolymarketUS) | $25.64 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 19 / 20¢ | $21.13 | $19.49 (NoVig) | $21.28 |
| De'Zhaun Stribling | 17 / 18¢ | $19.04 | $19.19 (ProphetX 🎁) | $20.00 |
| Terrance Ferguson | 16 / 17¢ | $17.99 | $16.67 (Fanatics) | $20.00 |
| Colby Parkinson | 14 / 15¢ | $15.90 | $15.38 (Fanatics) | $19.05 |
| Tyler Higbee | 13 / 14¢ | $14.85 | $12.50 (Fanatics) | $14.29 |
The anytime market is priced tight. Kalshi beats DraftKings on eleven of the twelve names above, by $1.79 on Nacua and $5.07 on Adams, with Higbee the exception, and it loses to the sharpest book on the screen on eleven of them, by 89 cents on Corum against Fliff and $1.21 on McCaffrey against NoVig. Stribling is the one name the exchange sells cheaper than every book, by 15 cents. Gaps that small mean the two venues agree on the anytime market. The first-touchdown board above is where they do not. Kittle's anytime quote, 5 bid and 22 ask, is a 17-cent spread on a starter, which says the market does not know how many snaps he will play.
What Moves These Prices Before 8:35 P.M.
The inactive list lands about 90 minutes before kickoff, and the two names that matter on it are already settled: Kittle and Nick Bosa came off the injury report and will play, though neither is likely to carry a full snap count in their first game back from the Achilles and ACL tears, per ESPN. A tight end on a snap count is a worse first-drive bet than his anytime price implies, which is one more reason to buy him at a book if you buy him at all.
The other thing is the clock. Kickoff is 10:35 on Friday morning in Melbourne; the 49ers have been there since September 4, the Rams planned to land about 24 hours before the game and stay on Pacific time, per NFL.com. Kalshi's game market has the Rams at 64 to 65 cents to win, a 3.5-point favorite with a 48.5 total, so the team expected to score about 26 points gets the extra red-zone trip. Nobody knows what a 5:35 p.m. body clock does to a scripted first drive. That is one more reason to want a bid under you, which Corum has and Adams does not.
Here is where I land, writing at 5 a.m. ET with the board 16 hours from its first snap. The market has priced the first touchdown as a two-back question, McCaffrey and Kyren Williams, with Nacua the only receiver within reach, and I do not disagree with the ordering. Where I disagree is the gap below it. Corum's first-touchdown ask is 20 percent of his anytime ask, the lowest ratio of any back on the board with a real bid, which reads as the market deciding his touchdowns come late, on the carries a timeshare gives him in the second half. That is fair, and a committee back is not a first-drive lock. But the Rams are the favorite, the extra red-zone trip is theirs, and the exchange sells the second back in that committee for $7.46 per $100 while no sportsbook on our screen goes under $9.00. If I am buying one first-touchdown contract tonight it is his, at the ask, knowing a 7-cent contract loses 93 times in 100 by its own price. I am not joining the penny pile. Re-run the arithmetic at whatever price you are offered after the inactives; they are the last thing that changes these numbers before the game does.
Kalshi prices as of Thursday, September 10, 2026, 4:46 a.m. ET and sportsbook prices from the OddsShopper board at 4:47 a.m. ET; all of them keep moving until the market settles after the game. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
More on this: A 38-Year-Old Quarterback, Zero Reps, 16 Hours Of Flying: That's Tonight's Total. · Patriots Vs Seahawks First TD Odds: Kalshi's Mystery Buyer · NFL Week 2 TD Props: 3 Mispriced Kalshi Plays For Sunday · Anytime Touchdown Odds: Kalshi Routinely Beats Your Sportsbook · Best Kalshi Anytime Touchdown Props for Week 5: Three Tight Ends, One Card
