Kalshi prices read off the exchange Friday, September 18, 2026, 11:40 p.m. ET, and unchanged from the afternoon read. Sunday's early games kick at 1:00 ET, the late window at 4:25. Prices move — re-pull before you trade.
Week 2 is here, and we are coming off a clean Thursday night. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Dalton Kincaid both found pay dirt in Buffalo — St. Brown twice.
Now the Sunday slate, which is stuffed with value, and a lot of the best numbers on it live on Kalshi rather than at a sportsbook.
Three plays, shortest price to longest. Let's go.
Play #1: George Pickens, 40¢ (+140 Effective)
Start with the environment, because it's the best one on the board.
Washington at Dallas carries a 50.5 total, the highest number on the Sunday slate, and it's indoors at AT&T Stadium. Dallas hasn't announced the roof — they rarely do until game day — but they close it the overwhelming majority of the time, and either way weather is not deciding this one. This is the game environment of the week and it isn't especially close.
Now the matchup, and this is where it gets good. Washington allowed a touchdown on 67.2% of the red-zone trips against them in 2025 — the worst rate in the NFL. Not among the worst. The worst. They also gave up 17 scores to wide receivers, and coughed up another in Week 1.
Then there's the stat that actually decides touchdown props, and Pickens owns it. He saw 31.6% of Dallas's end-zone targets last season — 18 of them, six of which he caught for scores. Add 23.1% of the team's red-zone targets overall. When Dak Prescott gets inside the 20 and looks for the back of the end zone, he is looking at Pickens roughly a third of the time.
The price is the bet. Pickens caught three of six for 28 yards in Week 1 with a couple of drops, and took a 17.6% target share against CeeDee Lamb's 23.5%. But look at how he was used: his average depth of target jumped to better than 16 yards and he absorbed 37.7% of the team's air yards, with corners pressing him to an average cushion of 2.64 yards. Dallas is not de-emphasizing him. They are throwing at him further downfield, and the volume will follow.
And there's a name on the other side of this one. Mike Sainristil starts outside for Washington, earned a 29.9 PFF grade in Week 1 — the worst mark on their defense — and gave up a 64-yard touchdown doing it. Dan Quinn called him out publicly afterward. Last season Sainristil allowed a touchdown on a higher share of his coverage snaps than all but a handful of corners in the league.
Fair warning on the other side of that: Pickens drew zero red-zone targets in Week 1. Dallas ran only five red-zone pass plays all afternoon, so it reads as a thin sample rather than a role change, but it is there.
Forty cents, +140 after the fee. Fanatics has +145 — call that a coin flip on venue, and take whichever tab is already open.
Stay ahead of the markets.
Daily insights and expert picks on Kalshi, Polymarket, and what's moving markets.
Free forever. Unsubscribe anytime.
Play #2: Terry McLaurin, 31¢ (+208 Effective)
Same game, longer price, and arguably the better matchup of the two.
Dallas allowed 26 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers in 2025 — more than any defense in the NFL. Not "among the worst." The worst. I had that corroborated four separate ways before putting it in print.
Now split it, because the split is the play. Twenty-one of those 26 went to receivers lined up outside, and Dallas surrendered +0.516 EPA per target to perimeter receivers — dead last in the league. The median defense sat at +0.214. Scary Terry lines up outside. That is not a soft spot, it is a crater, and it is exactly where he lives.
Their red-zone work is the same story: a touchdown on 80.4% of the possessions that reached their 10-yard line, third-worst in football. And if you watched the Sunday night opener, you already know what kind of bad this secondary is. Dallas allowed zero completions longer than 19 yards to the Giants in prime time and still lost 28-20 — because they surrendered a 69.7% success rate on dropbacks, went 4-for-4 in the red zone, and got carved up on 81.8% of third downs. Jaxson Dart went 17-of-19 against their four-man rush. They do not break on the big play. They let you march the length of the field and then break at the goal line, which is the precise failure mode that pays a touchdown ticket.
McLaurin walks into that with his role intact. In Week 1 he ran 35 routes at 92.1% route participation, and in the 10 games he played last season he commanded 23.1% of the targets and 39.2% of Washington's air yards at a 14-yard average depth. He is the downfield offense. Washington is also a 4.5-point underdog, which means they are throwing in the second half whether they like it or not, and with Chig Okonkwo ruled out there is one less body competing near the goal line.
One more thing to watch: DaRon Bland is a real corner and will take one side. The job opposite him was still an open competition into Week 1 between Cobie Durant and Shavon Revel, who posted a 34.6 PFF coverage grade last season while allowing 295 yards into his coverage. If Revel is the one out there, that's the most attackable square of grass on the field.
Two honest counterweights. Dallas fired Matt Eberflus and hired Christian Parker, who has said plainly he intends to be multiple rather than run last year's zone-heavy system — so the 2025 scheme numbers describe a staff that no longer works there. What transfers is the personnel, and the opener suggested the outcome transferred with it.
The other is on his own sideline. Stefon Diggs signed in Washington in August, and in Week 1 he out-targeted McLaurin nine to four and caught the only red-zone touchdown the Commanders threw. McLaurin still led the team in routes and snaps, and there is a reason for the gap: Philadelphia put Quinyon Mitchell and Riq Woolen on him for 22 of his 35 routes and held him to a single target against that pairing. That is an elite secondary game-planning a number one out of a game. Dallas is not that, and new coordinator David Blough has said out loud the offense is built to get McLaurin 10 targets a game. But until that shows up on a stat sheet, Diggs is a real competitor for the looks that matter.
Thirty-one cents, +208 after the fee.
Here's what that's worth. BetMGM has him at +185. DraftKings +195. Caesars +199. FanDuel +200. bet365 +205. The exchange beats five of the seven books I checked. Fanatics is the exception at +230 — if you have that app, go use it. At most shops you are leaving money on the table by not being on Kalshi for this one.
One thing to keep straight before you click both: this is the same football game as Play #1. If Washington and Dallas turn into a 17-13 rock fight, McLaurin and Pickens die together. They are one position, not two.
Play #3: Xavier Hutchinson, 24¢ (+296 Effective)
Houston's receiver room has been gutted. Nico Collins was officially ruled out Friday with a hamstring — he never practiced all week. Tank Dell is on injured reserve. Jayden Higgins is out for the season. C.J. Stroud is going to line up Sunday and throw to whoever is standing upright.
By Week 1 snap count, that was Hutchinson — 44 snaps, 56%, the actual number two behind Collins, and the longest-standing rapport with Stroud in the room. X gon' give it to ya, presumably.
Here is the number that makes this more than a shrug. Collins missed two games in 2025, and in those two games Hutchinson's usage did not nudge, it detonated: target share from 8.6% to 22.7%, air yards share from 10.9% to 27.3%, red-zone target share from 7.0% to 25.0%, and his EPA per target nearly quadrupled from +0.13 to +0.49. Two games is a sample you hold at arm's length, and I am holding it at arm's length. But it is the only direct evidence of what this offense looks like without its alpha, and it all points one direction.
He also got open in Week 1. Three and a quarter yards of average separation — more than Pickens or McLaurin managed, and the best mark of the three men on this card.
Full disclosure on my read here: I went to Iowa State, so I have watched more Xavier Hutchinson football than is strictly healthy. He is not going to run away from anybody, and there are stretches where he looks thoroughly pedestrian. But he is a big body who knows how to find the soft spot, and in small doses — which is precisely what this is — he can absolutely be effective. That is the whole thesis. You are not buying a star. You are buying a competent target in an offense that just lost every other option.
And this is the one spot on the board where the exchange is not close to the books. Kalshi pays +296 after the fee. The best number I found anywhere else was +260 at DraftKings. That is 36 cents more on the dollar for the identical outcome.
Two things are worth knowing while you're at that price. Houston has not named a replacement for Collins — the beat has it as an open committee with Kayshon Boutte and Jaylin Noel, so the snaps are not locked. And there is a wrinkle on the other sideline that runs backwards from how it sounds: Joe Burrow is questionable with a back issue. A diminished Cincinnati offense seems like good news until you follow it through. Houston is already a 2.5-point favorite, and a Bengals team that cannot move the ball hands the Texans a lead they will sit on with David Montgomery, who scored three times in Week 1. The version of this game where Hutchinson finds the end zone is the one where Burrow plays well and Houston has to keep throwing. You are, oddly, rooting for the opposing quarterback.
How I'd Size It
Half a unit on Pickens. That's bigger than I usually go and he's the shortest price on the card, which sounds backwards until you look at what he actually owns: a third of his team's end-zone targets, against the defense that allowed a touchdown on more red-zone trips than anybody in football. That is the cleanest overlap of role and matchup I found all week, and I'm not going to tiptoe around it.
Quarter unit on Scary Terry. The matchup is arguably the better of the two — nobody was worse against outside receivers last season — but the target picture keeps the size honest. Stefon Diggs, who signed in Washington in August, drew nine targets to McLaurin's four in Week 1 and caught the only red-zone touchdown the Commanders threw. McLaurin's average depth of target also cratered to 5.5 yards, the opposite of his career shape. Great spot, murkier role.
Quarter unit on Hutchinson, and not because of the price — +296 against the book's +260 is the widest edge on this card. It's about who's throwing him the football. I've watched enough C.J. Stroud to keep a hand on my wallet, and a receiver's touchdown ticket is only ever as good as the arm behind it.
Also worth saying: Pickens and Scary Terry are in the same football game. If Washington and Dallas somehow play to 17-13, three-quarters of this card dies on one field.
One I'm leaving off the card on purpose: DK Metcalf, over in Pittsburgh at New England. The exchange has him at +252, which is a perfectly good number. Fanatics has him at +305. When a book is paying you 50 cents more on the dollar, writing up the Kalshi version would be doing you a disservice. Go to the book on that one.
The downside, stated plainly: all three of these need touchdowns from pass-catchers in games where the goal-line work may go to a running back instead. That is the risk on every ticket in this column, every week.
The Fee Math: What The Cent Price Actually Costs You
Before I go, knowing the mechanics of Kalshi fees is important to being profitable long-term: you pay a fee slightly above the cent price as a market taker.
Kalshi's taker fee is 0.07 × price × (1 − price), taken off the top.
Pickens at 40 cents carries a 1.68-cent fee. You're in at 41.68 cents to win a dollar — risking 41.68 to collect 58.32. Run that through the converter and it's +140. That +140 is the number you hold up against a sportsbook. The 40 is not.
The one other bit of format: Kalshi posts one-sided threshold contracts, so a "1+" contract is precisely your book's anytime touchdown. Same bet, different wrapper.
The Card, With The Fee Math
| Contract | Price | After fee | Effective | Best book | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens Yes 1+ TD | 40¢ | 41.68¢ | +140 | +145 (Fanatics) | WAS at DAL |
| Terry McLaurin Yes 1+ TD | 31¢ | 32.50¢ | +208 | +230 (Fanatics) | WAS at DAL |
| Xavier Hutchinson Yes 1+ TD | 24¢ | 25.28¢ | +296 | +260 (DraftKings) | CIN at HOU |
Kalshi asks read Friday, September 18, 2026, 11:40 p.m. ET, unchanged from the afternoon read. Fees at the published taker rate of 0.07 × price × (1 − price); Kalshi rounds up at settlement, so these effective numbers are a ceiling. Best book is the longest number I could find across US books at the same read — on McLaurin the exchange beats five of the seven I checked, and on Hutchinson it beats all of them.
Final Thoughts: The Week 2 Sunday Touchdown Card
Two swings at the best scoring environment on the board and one cheap ticket bought on a vacancy. That's the week.
Pickens is the one I want most, and the reason is a single number: 31.6% of Dallas's end-zone targets belonged to him last season. Put that against a Washington defense that allowed a touchdown on two-thirds of the red-zone trips it faced — worst rate in the league — indoors, in the highest-total game on the board. Role and matchup are pointing at the same spot on the field.
Scary Terry is the better matchup on paper and the murkier role, which is why he's a quarter rather than a half. Hutchinson is the lottery ticket, and I've told you exactly what he is and exactly what has to happen.
Sizing is half a unit on Pickens, a quarter each on McLaurin and Hutchinson. No chasing if the early window goes badly — there's a whole late window and it will still be there.
And do the thing this column is actually about: check the number in two places before you click. Thursday's card cleared partly because the best prices were on the exchange and I went and looked. This week one of them is at Fanatics instead. The venue changes every week. The habit shouldn't.
See you Sunday.
— Lindy
Kalshi prices quoted were read from the exchange on Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:40 p.m. ET and will move before Sunday's 1:00 p.m. ET kickoffs; confirm the bid and ask before trading. Sportsbook prices are from Fanatics, DraftKings, bet365, BetMGM, Caesars and FanDuel and should be re-checked at the book. Statistics cited are 2025 regular-season and Week 1 2026 figures computed from official NFL play-by-play and NFL Next Gen Stats, plus SumerSports, PlayerProfiler, 4for4, FTN and team sites; player grades are PFF; single-game 2026 samples are small and are labeled as such. Injury designations are the final Friday game-status reports; inactives post 90 minutes before kickoff. The edges here are model estimates, not predictions of fact; nothing here is financial advice. Trading involves risk and contracts can settle at zero. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
More on this: NFL 2026 on Kalshi: 49 Live Boards, 10 Days To Kickoff · Can Five AI Models Beat The Market On Kalshi Player Props? · NFL Week 1 Kalshi Player Props: Six Contracts That Stick Out · 49ers vs Rams Kalshi Player Props: Who Gets Fed In Melbourne · Patriots vs Seahawks Kalshi Player Props: Seattle Gives Up Catches, Not Yards
