Prices as of Wednesday, September 9, 2026, 2:25 p.m. ET.
As of Wednesday, September 9, 2026, three Kalshi contracts for the Melbourne opener. A running back who catches passes against the defense that fed running backs more than almost anyone last year. A quarterback priced near a coin flip to do something he did in all but two games. A receiver whose numbers against zone coverage are the best on the board. Kickoff is Thursday night in the U.S. and Friday morning in Melbourne.
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The Board
Kalshi in cents, yes bid / yes ask. The ask is what a buyer pays; "no" costs 100 minus the yes bid. Wednesday, September 9, 2026, 2:25 p.m. ET.
| Contract | Kalshi yes (bid / ask) | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey 6+ receptions | 31 / 34¢ | 6+ catches in 11 of 17 games |
| Christian McCaffrey 5+ receptions | 49 / 50¢ | 5+ in 13 of 17 |
| Matthew Stafford 2+ passing touchdowns | 57 / 59¢ | 2+ in 15 of 17 |
| Puka Nacua 90+ receiving yards | 45 / 52¢ | 90+ in 9 of 16 |
| Puka Nacua 8+ receptions | 40 / 42¢ | 8+ in 8 of 16 |
Kalshi settles each contract on the player's final stat line for the game. Kickoff is Thursday at 8:35 p.m. ET, Friday morning in Melbourne; the Rams are 3.5-point favorites at DraftKings and 4.5 at Caesars. Aaron Donald is out and did not travel; Myles Garrett did not practice Wednesday with a knee.
Christian McCaffrey: 6+ Receptions
McCaffrey's 23.3% target share was the highest of any running back in football last year, 7.6 targets a game, and the Rams are the defense that feeds it. Chris Shula's unit allowed 38.2 receiving yards a game to running backs on 6.5 targets, fifth-most in the league, and 4.9 catches a game, and he is in his third year running the same scheme. Los Angeles played zone on 79.8% of its snaps, fourth-most, and McCaffrey's 1.98 yards per route against zone is better than 95% of backs. He averaged six catches a game last year, caught six or more in 11 of 17, and caught eight in each of the two Rams games. His last four games averaged 4.3 catches, but George Kittle is still working back from a January Achilles tear, Ricky Pearsall is out for the season, and the pass rush across from Brock Purdy has Myles Garrett in it and will not have Aaron Donald: the Rams ruled him out of the opener on Tuesday and left him home from the trip, per the AP, and Garrett himself did not practice Wednesday with a knee, the Rams' report of the week with the designation still to come, which is how a quarterback ends up throwing to his running back. The books price his yards at 38.5; Kalshi prices his catches, five at 50 cents and six at 35.
Christian McCaffrey 6+ receptions, yes at 34 cents on Kalshi. It was 35 when this published Tuesday.
Matthew Stafford: 2+ Passing Touchdowns
Stafford threw 46 touchdowns last year and had two or more in 15 of 17 games. His big-time throw rate of 7.4% ranked in the 97th percentile of quarterbacks and his deep-throw rate of 15.2% in the 98th; McVay's offense passed on 59.0% of its red-zone snaps with a pass rate over expected that ranked fifth in the league. Davante Adams took 51.9% of the Rams' end-zone targets, the highest share of any receiver in football, and scored 14 times in 14 games. San Francisco's sack rate last year was 3.0%, the lowest in the league; Nick Bosa is back from his ACL, but the 49ers traveled with three healthy defensive ends. The Rams land in Melbourne about 24 hours before kickoff, but the plan is to stay on Pacific time, where the 10:35 a.m. local kickoff is 5:35 p.m. Kalshi's 57 cents is the same price FanDuel charges at -140; the contract is the cleaner way to hold it.
Matthew Stafford 2+ passing touchdowns, yes at 59 cents on Kalshi. It was 57 when this published Tuesday.
Puka Nacua: 90+ Receiving Yards
Nacua was targeted on 36.0% of his routes last year and turned them into 3.70 yards per route run, both the best marks among receivers, on 10.4 targets a game. Against zone, which San Francisco played on 76.1% of its snaps, he ran 282 routes for 4.05 yards each and was targeted on 36.9% of them; against man he was at 3.54, so there is no coverage he wants to avoid. San Francisco allowed 8.36 yards per target to wide receivers, fifth-most in the league, and the three corners who allowed it, Lenoir, Green and Stout, are the three corners this year. He averaged 107.2 yards a game and reached 90 in 9 of 16. He went 85 and 64 in the two meetings with the 49ers, but he played half the snaps in the second one, and Fred Warner, who missed both, is back at a position that has nothing to do with Nacua's routes on the outside. The Kalshi contract is 90 or more, half a yard under the book's 90.5, with a 46-cent bid and a 54-cent ask.
Puka Nacua 90+ receiving yards, yes at 52 cents on Kalshi.It was 54 when this published Tuesday.
More on this: NFL Week 1 Kalshi Player Props: Six Contracts That Stick Out · Patriots vs Seahawks Kalshi Player Props: Seattle Gives Up Catches, Not Yards · Can Five AI Models Beat The Market On Kalshi Player Props? · 49ers vs Rams Props: Who Gets Fed In Melbourne · Giants Vs Rams Odds: 71,000 Contracts Bought, Then Dumped
Bottom Line
McCaffrey six or more catches at 34 cents is the play I'd make first. Stafford two or more touchdown passes at 59 is the price bet. Nacua 90 or more at 52 is the number the coverage and the corners fit.
Follow Dave on X: @Loughy.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Puka Nacua photo by Sewageboy, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; Matthew Stafford photo by Sewageboy, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
Prices quoted are live Kalshi market prices as of Tuesday, September 8, 2026, and will keep moving until these markets settle after the September 10, 2026 game. OddsShopper covers prediction markets as an independent analyst: any model or panel figures referenced are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Betting involves risk; contracts can go to zero. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
