Patriots vs Seahawks Kalshi Player Props: Seattle Gives Up Catches, Not Yards

Prices as of Wednesday, September 9, 2026, 2:25 p.m. ET, refreshed after the final injury reports.

As of Wednesday, September 9, 2026, three Kalshi contracts for tonight. A tight end running into the part of the field Seattle's injuries just opened. A receiver who drew a target every four routes last year, playing his first game for a new team, in the market that fits him. A running back the market promoted to a workhorse on Sunday's injury news. Seattle's defense gave up catches last season and not yards, and that decides which contracts these are.

The Board

Kalshi in cents, yes bid / yes ask. The ask is what a buyer pays; "no" costs 100 minus the yes bid. Wednesday, September 9, 2026, 2:25 p.m. ET.

Kalshi settles each contract on the player's final stat line for the game. The Patriots are 3-point underdogs at DraftKings as of Wednesday afternoon, with FanDuel and Caesars still at 3.5; the total is 44.5, and Seattle is 61 to 62 cents to win. TreVeyon Henderson is out.

Hunter Henry: 4+ Receptions

Seattle's defense gives ground in one place, the middle, and this week it is short the players who patrol it. The Seahawks faced 8.5 tight end targets a game last year, fifth-most in the league, and allowed 63.5 tight end yards a game, sixth-most, on 6.2 catches, while playing zone on 80.4% of snaps, third-most. Henry ran 2.07 yards per route against zone last year on 52 targets, better than 92% of tight ends. Ty Okada, the projected starter next to Julian Love, was ruled out on Wednesday's final report with the hamstring, Nick Emmanwori is questionable after a limited week coming off ankle surgery, and Seattle carries three safeties on the roster. Mike Macdonald's Baltimore defenses were bottom-three in tight end targets faced, so the leak is Seattle's personnel and not his scheme, but the personnel is what's hurt. Josh McDaniels gave his tight ends 40.9% of the red-zone targets last year, second in the league, and Henry drew 24.7% of New England's. He caught four or more passes in 9 of 17 games and three or more in 11. Kalshi charges 39 cents for four and 61 for three; the books price his yards at 34.5 and have nothing on his catches. Four is the number that fits a tight end working the middle against a defense that concedes the catch.

Hunter Henry 4+ receptions, yes at 40 cents on Kalshi.

It was 39 when this published Tuesday.

A.J. Brown: 5+ Receptions

Seattle's pass defense had the strangest split in the league last year: it allowed 10.2 catches a game to wide receivers and 6.25 yards per target to them, the fewest in football. It let receivers catch the ball and then tackled them. That is a defense to bet catches against, not yards, and Brown is the catches. He drew 26.0% of Philadelphia's targets and 31.8% of its air yards last year, a target every four routes, and caught five or more passes in 10 of 15 games in an offense that threw less than almost anyone. He joins a quarterback who threw for 4,396 yards, and the receivers around him are Romeo Doubs, DeMario Douglas and Mack Hollins. Seattle can roll Devon Witherspoon to him, but the targets come either way. Kalshi prices his 60 receiving yards at 51 cents, the same thing the books charge for 60.5, and that is the contract to leave alone; his five catches cost 60.

A.J. Brown 5+ receptions, yes at 62 cents on Kalshi.

It was 60 when this published Tuesday.

Rhamondre Stevenson: No On 15+ Rush Attempts

The books moved this line from 14.5 to 15.5 over the weekend because TreVeyon Henderson was ruled out on Wednesday's final report, the first designation he has carried since he hurt the ankle on August 24, and the move prices Stevenson as a workhorse he has never been. He carried it 15 or more times once in 14 games last year, on a 32.8% share of the carries, and averaged nine. New England ran it 24.1 times a game, and this week it is a 3.5-point dog against the defense that allowed 3.4 yards a carry last year, fewest in the league, with the fewest explosive runs allowed in football; a trailing offense against that front throws. Henderson out makes Stevenson the starter, but Corey Kiner is behind him and Josh McDaniels has split this backfield every season he has called it. On Kalshi the contract is "Stevenson: 15+ rushing attempts," and "no" settles yes if he carries 14 times or fewer. It costs 42 cents, the same view DraftKings prices as the under 15.5 at +100.

Rhamondre Stevenson 15+ rushing attempts, no at 42 cents on Kalshi.

More on this: 49ers vs Rams Kalshi Player Props: Who Gets Fed In Melbourne · NFL Week 1 Kalshi Player Props: Six Contracts That Stick Out · Can Five AI Models Beat The Market On Kalshi Player Props? · Patriots vs Seahawks Props: The Middle Of The Field Is Open · A.J. Brown Injury: The Patriots Got Sold, Then Bought Back

Bottom Line

Henry four or more catches at 40 cents is the play I'd make first. Brown five or more at 62 is the volume. No on Stevenson at 15 carries, 42 cents, is the fade of a line the injury report moved.

Follow Dave on X: @Loughy.

Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Drake Maye photo by Tennessee Titans, licensed CC BY 3.0; Sam Darnold photo by Tennessee Titans, licensed CC BY 4.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.

Prices quoted are live Kalshi market prices as of Tuesday, September 8, 2026, and will keep moving until these markets settle after the September 9, 2026 game. OddsShopper covers prediction markets as an independent analyst: any model or panel figures referenced are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Betting involves risk; contracts can go to zero. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.