Prices as of Tuesday, September 8, 2026, 4:22 p.m. ET.
As of Tuesday, September 8, 2026: Hunter Henry catching four or more passes in Wednesday night's opener at Lumen Field costs 39 cents on Kalshi, which is a 39% chance. A.J. Brown catching five or more costs 60, and "no" on Rhamondre Stevenson carrying 15 or more times costs 42. Those are the three contracts on this page. The sportsbooks on the OddsShopper board price both receivers' yards and neither receiver's catches; Kalshi prices the catches, and last season Seattle's defense gave up catches and not yards.
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The Board
Kalshi in cents, yes bid / yes ask. The ask is what a buyer pays; "no" costs 100 minus the yes bid. Tuesday, September 8, 4:22 p.m. ET.
| Contract | Kalshi yes (bid / ask) | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry 4+ receptions | 38 / 39¢ | 4+ catches in 9 of 17 games |
| Hunter Henry 3+ receptions | 59 / 61¢ | 3+ in 11 of 17 |
| A.J. Brown 5+ receptions | 59 / 60¢ | 5+ in 10 of 15 |
| A.J. Brown 6+ receptions | 40 / 42¢ | 6+ in 7 of 15 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson 15+ rush attempts | 58 / 59¢ ("no" costs 42¢) | 15+ in 1 of 14 |
Kalshi settles each contract on the player's final stat line for the game. The Patriots are 3.5-point underdogs at DraftKings, the total is 44.5, and Seattle is 62 to 63 cents to win.
Hunter Henry: 4+ Receptions
Seattle's defense gives ground in one place, the middle, and this week it is short the players who patrol it. The Seahawks faced 8.5 tight end targets a game last year, fifth-most in the league, and allowed 63.5 tight end yards a game, sixth-most, on 6.2 catches, while playing zone on 80.4% of snaps, third-most. Henry ran 2.07 yards per route against zone last year on 52 targets, better than 92% of tight ends. Ty Okada, the projected starter next to Julian Love, did not practice Sunday with a hamstring, Nick Emmanwori was limited coming off ankle surgery, and Seattle carries three safeties on the roster. Mike Macdonald's Baltimore defenses were bottom-three in tight end targets faced, so the leak is Seattle's personnel and not his scheme, but the personnel is what's hurt. Josh McDaniels gave his tight ends 40.9% of the red-zone targets last year, second in the league, and Henry drew 24.7% of New England's. He caught four or more passes in 9 of 17 games and three or more in 11. Kalshi charges 39 cents for four and 61 for three; the books price his yards at 34.5 and have nothing on his catches. Four is the number that fits a tight end working the middle against a defense that concedes the catch.
Hunter Henry 4+ receptions, yes at 39 cents on Kalshi.
A.J. Brown: 5+ Receptions
Seattle's pass defense had the strangest split in the league last year: it allowed 10.2 catches a game to wide receivers and 6.25 yards per target to them, the fewest in football. It let receivers catch the ball and then tackled them. That is a defense to bet catches against, not yards, and Brown is the catches. He drew 26.0% of Philadelphia's targets and 31.8% of its air yards last year, a target every four routes, and caught five or more passes in 10 of 15 games in an offense that threw less than almost anyone. He joins a quarterback who threw for 4,396 yards, and the receivers around him are Romeo Doubs, DeMario Douglas and Mack Hollins. Seattle can roll Devon Witherspoon to him, but the targets come either way. Kalshi prices his 60 receiving yards at 51 cents, the same thing the books charge for 60.5, and that is the contract to leave alone; his five catches cost 60.
A.J. Brown 5+ receptions, yes at 60 cents on Kalshi.
Rhamondre Stevenson: No On 15+ Rush Attempts
The books moved this line from 14.5 to 15.5 over the weekend because TreVeyon Henderson has not practiced since August 24 and is leaning toward missing Wednesday, and the move prices Stevenson as a workhorse he has never been. He carried it 15 or more times once in 14 games last year, on a 32.8% share of the carries, and averaged nine. New England ran it 24.1 times a game, and this week it is a 3.5-point dog against the defense that allowed 3.4 yards a carry last year, fewest in the league, with the fewest explosive runs allowed in football; a trailing offense against that front throws. Henderson out makes Stevenson the starter, but Corey Kiner is behind him and Josh McDaniels has split this backfield every season he has called it. On Kalshi the contract is "Stevenson: 15+ rushing attempts," and "no" settles yes if he carries 14 times or fewer. It costs 42 cents, the same view DraftKings prices as the under 15.5 at +100.
Rhamondre Stevenson 15+ rushing attempts, no at 42 cents on Kalshi.
Bottom Line
Henry four or more catches at 39 cents is the play I'd make first. Brown five or more at 60 is the volume. No on Stevenson at 15 carries, 42 cents, is the fade of a line the injury report moved.
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Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Drake Maye photo by Tennessee Titans, licensed CC BY 3.0; Sam Darnold photo by Tennessee Titans, licensed CC BY 4.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
Prices quoted are live Kalshi market prices as of Tuesday, September 8, 2026, and will keep moving until these markets settle after the September 9, 2026 game. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange (18+; availability varies by state). OddsShopper covers prediction markets as an independent analyst: any model or panel figures referenced are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Betting involves risk; contracts can go to zero. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
