What did A.J. Brown's injury do to the Patriots' odds? Less than you would guess, and not when you would guess. New England placed Brown on injured reserve on Friday, September 11, with a high ankle sprain, which keeps him out at least four games. Kalshi's contract on the Patriots making the playoffs sits at 53 cents bid and 55 cents ask this morning, down from 62 and 64 before Wednesday's kickoff in Seattle. The contract on New England winning ten or more games fell harder and has come most of the way back. Both prices fell in two stretches, one during the 13-10 loss on Wednesday night and one on Thursday, most of it in the hour after the MRI result reached the news wires. The hour Friday when the IR report landed barely traded, and by Saturday morning the ten-win quote had climbed back above where Thursday's sellers left it. Prices as of 5:54 a.m. ET, September 12, 2026.
That is the page in one paragraph. The rest exists because the two drops came from two different stories. The first was Drake Maye throwing three fourth-quarter interceptions. The second was the ankle. Only one of those has been undone, and the tape below shows which.
| Patriots Contract | Now | Before kickoff, Wednesday | Low print since |
|---|---|---|---|
| Playoffs | 53¢ / 55¢ | 62¢ / 64¢ | 47¢ (Thursday afternoon) |
| 10+ Games | 48¢ / 49¢ | 58¢ / 59¢ | 40¢ (Wednesday night) |
| AFC East | 31¢ / 33¢ | 40¢ (last trade) | 29¢ (Thursday night) |
| Week 2 | 62¢ / 63¢ | 68¢ / 69¢ | 63¢ (Friday night, 1,134 contracts) |
Kalshi, 5:54 a.m. ET, September 12, 2026. "Playoffs" is the contract on New England making the playoffs, "10+ games" on winning at least ten regular-season games, "AFC East" on winning the division, "Week 2" on beating Pittsburgh on September 20. The two numbers in each cell are the best bid and the best ask, meaning what a buyer will pay right now and what a seller wants. "Before kickoff" is the quote at 8 p.m. ET on September 9; "low print" is the lowest trade since then.
Stay ahead of the markets.
Daily insights and expert picks on Kalshi, Polymarket, and what's moving markets.
Free forever. Unsubscribe anytime.
Four Games Without Him
The injury itself is not complicated. With 13:30 left in the third quarter on Wednesday night, Maye threw short and left to Brown on third down, Seattle cornerback Nehemiah Pritchett broke up the low throw, and Pritchett's knee came down on Brown's right ankle as they landed (NFL.com). Brown grabbed at his leg, walked off with a limp (Boston.com) and did not return; the Patriots ruled him out early in the fourth quarter. He finished his New England debut with three catches for 26 yards on four targets, plus a 34-yard pass interference penalty he drew on Josh Jobe in the second quarter (ESPN box score).
Thursday's MRI confirmed a high ankle sprain and no fracture, and ESPN's Mike Reiss reported at 8:06 p.m. ET that Brown would miss at least four weeks (ESPN). Mike Vrabel's line that night: "I know he'll do everything that he can to get back as quickly as possible." Friday around midday, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported the injured reserve move (Pro Football Talk), which under NFL rules means a minimum of four games missed: Pittsburgh at home on September 20, at Jacksonville on September 27, at Buffalo on October 4, and Las Vegas at home on October 11. The earliest he can play, at best, is Week 6 against the Jets on October 18 (CBS Sports). NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, who reported the MRI result, put the usual range for the injury at four to six weeks, so the Jets game is a floor, not a promise.
New England paid a 2028 first-round pick and a 2027 fifth to get Brown from Philadelphia on June 1, and the reason was the room he was joining. Without him on Wednesday, the receiver work went to Mack Hollins, who caught four of five targets for 51 yards, and to Romeo Doubs, who was targeted three times and caught none of them. DeMario Douglas caught five passes for 20 yards. The one receiver in that group with a 1,000-yard season on his résumé is the one on injured reserve, and Maye's three interceptions all came on throws to the players who remain: Doubs deep left, Douglas deep middle, Hollins deep right.
So the market had two things to price this week. A quarterback who threw the game away, and a quarter of the season without the receiver bought to keep that from happening. Here is when it priced each one.
Wednesday: The Loss Did The Damage
The biggest single trade of the week on the ten-win contract was a buy, and it came before the game. At 2:28 p.m. ET Wednesday, someone bought 4,687 contracts of "Patriots win ten or more" in a single second, walking the price from 59 cents to 63 and taking 2,582 of them at the top. That was the high of the week. By 6:39 p.m. a seller had pushed it back to 58, and the contract went into kickoff at 58 bid, 59 ask. The playoff contract was quieter and similar: a 381-contract buy at 6:56 p.m. lifted it to 65, the last trade before the game was 62, and the bid-ask sat at 62 and 64.
Then the game happened, and the game was a story about Maye rather than Brown. New England led 7-0 when Brown went down at 9:55 p.m. ET, and Andres Borregales' 50-yard field goal made it 10-0 eight minutes later. Seattle's first points came on a Jason Myers field goal with 3:13 left in the third. The first interception came at 10:38 p.m., Pritchett again, on a deep ball to Doubs at the Seattle 3; Jaxon Smith-Njigba scored on a 45-yard catch four minutes later to tie it. The second came at 10:50 p.m., Julian Love on a deep throw to Douglas. Myers kicked Seattle ahead 13-10 with 5:50 left, and Jobe's interception in the end zone with 26 seconds to go ended it at 11:23 p.m. (ESPN play-by-play).
The ten-win contract traded 1,166 contracts in the 11 o'clock hour, printed as low as 40 cents on one fill, and closed the hour at 50. The playoff contract traded 289 contracts in the same hour, every one of them sold into the book, and went from 63 to 55 at the hour's close; it was 51 by 2 a.m. That is the first leg, and it belongs to the interceptions, and the tape can show it. Two minutes after Brown went down, at 9:57 p.m., eight contracts of the ten-win rung sold at 55 and the next fills on the playoff contract were buys at 64 to 67 cents. Then almost nothing until the interceptions. The real selling started at 11:12 p.m., after Love's interception and Myers' go-ahead kick, when about 110 contracts went through in one second at prices from 55 down to 40, and the playoff contract's biggest single fill after kickoff, 91 contracts at 61, printed at 11:24 p.m., one minute after Jobe's interception ended the game.
There is a cleaner way to say how much of that first leg was mechanical. New England was 38 cents to win in Seattle at kickoff, so the loss itself removed about four-tenths of an expected win from the season. Add up the rungs of Kalshi's 17-contract win ladder that carry live quotes, where each rung is a separate contract on the Patriots reaching at least that many wins, and the crowd's expected win count went from about 9.8 before kickoff to about 9.3 by midnight. Half a win, for a game the market thought New England would probably lose anyway. The difference between the four-tenths the scoreboard took and the half-win the market took is the market's first opinion on the remaining 16 games, and it was small.
Thursday: The Ankle Got Its Own Hour
The second leg has a timestamp too, and it is the one this page is really about. An 1,815-contract sale at 5:45 a.m. Thursday took the ten-win contract from 49 to 46, and it sat between 46 and 48 for the rest of the day. ESPN's four-weeks report went up at 8:06 p.m. Between 9:14 and 9:21 p.m. ET, sellers hit the book for 3,437 contracts, including 949 at 46, then 1,000 at 43, then 548 at 42. The contract closed the hour at 42 and held between 42 and 43 through Friday morning. The AFC East contract took the same hit in the same hour, 2,926 contracts traded and a close at 29 cents, down from 34 that morning and 40 before the game. Nothing else happened to the Patriots on Thursday night. That hour was the market pricing four games without Brown, and it priced them at four to five cents on the ten-win rung and five cents on the division.
| Time (ET) | What happened | Ten-win contract | Playoff contract |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 2:28 P.m. | 4,687-contract buy in one second | 59¢ to 63¢ | 61¢ / 63¢ |
| Wed 8:20 P.m. | Kickoff in Seattle | 58¢ / 59¢ | 62¢ / 64¢ |
| Wed 9:55 P.m. | Brown hurt on a third-down throw | 55¢ (next print, 9:57) | 64¢ to 67¢ (next prints, 9:57) |
| Wed 10:38 To 11:23 P.m. | Three Maye interceptions, 13-10 final | Low print 40¢, hour closes 50¢ | 63¢ to 55¢ |
| Thu 5:45 A.m. | 1,815-contract sale | 49¢ to 46¢ | 51¢ / 57¢ |
| Thu 8:06 P.m. | ESPN: MRI, out at least four weeks | 46¢ / 47¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ |
| Thu 9:14 To 9:21 P.m. | 3,437 contracts sold | 46¢ to 42¢ | 47¢ / 53¢ |
| Fri 11:29 A.m. | 1,111-contract buy | 43¢ | 51¢ / 52¢ |
| Fri ~12:50 P.m. | Schefter: Brown to injured reserve | 254 contracts sold, 43¢ to 42¢ | 51¢ / 52¢, no trades |
| Fri 10:19 P.m. | 134-contract buy on the playoff side | 45¢ bid | 52¢ to 55¢ |
| Sat 5:54 A.m. | This page | 48¢ / 49¢ | 53¢ / 55¢ |
Kalshi trade tape and hourly candles for KXNFLWINS-27NE-10 and KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-NE, pulled September 12, 2026. Single-number cells are trade prints; paired cells are the bid and ask standing at that moment, taken from the hourly candle that ends at or before it. Game times from ESPN's play-by-play wall clock. The Schefter time is the Pro Football Talk post stamp, 12:50 p.m.
Read the Friday rows against the Thursday rows and the shape is plain. The IR placement was the formal version of news the market had already sold on. The four-games minimum was implied by "at least four weeks" the night before, and the only thing the paperwork added was certainty that he would not be back for Buffalo. The 12 o'clock hour on Friday, the hour the report broke, saw 254 contracts change hands on the ten-win rung and none at all on the playoff rung. Before the report, at 11:29 a.m., someone had bought 1,111 contracts at 43. After it, the bid drifted up, not down: 43 in the afternoon, 45 by evening, 48 by Saturday. The playoff contract's one real trade of the day was a 134-contract buy at 10:19 p.m. that lifted it from 52 to 55.
Where The Quote Went Back Up, And On How Little
Here is the part to be careful with. The ten-win contract's move from 42 back to 48 since Friday noon happened on almost no volume: a couple of contracts at 45 Friday night, a couple at 48 in the small hours of Saturday, seven more at 47 and 48 before dawn. The bid climbed because the resting orders moved, not because a wave of buyers came for the Patriots. The playoff contract's climb from 51 to 53 rests on that one 134-contract buy. On a market with 46,000 contracts open on the ten-win rung and 14,000 on the playoff rung, a quote that moves six cents on ten contracts is a quote, and the next real trade will tell you whether it holds.
That matters for anyone reading the headline numbers as "the market shrugged at Brown." It did not shrug. It sold roughly five cents of ten-win probability in seven minutes on Thursday night, then the offers walked back up over a quiet Friday and a quieter Saturday morning. Whether that walk-back is a judgment that four games without Brown is worth less than five cents, or just an empty book drifting toward the pre-MRI level, is exactly the question the next 3,000 contracts will answer. On Wednesday the biggest trade of the week was a buyer paying 63. That buyer took 4,687 contracts at 59 to 63, 2,582 of them at the top. Against today's 48 bid the top slice is down 15 cents, and whoever it was has said nothing since.
The Rest Of The Ladder
The ten-win rung is where the money is, but the middle of the ladder tells the same story with more resolution. Every rung from eight to 12 is lower than it was Wednesday at noon, and every rung from ten to 12 is higher than it was Friday at 1 p.m. The nine-win rung went the other way, 61 and 68 on Friday to 59 and 64 now, which is the more interesting fact: the same Saturday book that lifted the ten- and eleven-win offers pulled the nine-win one down.
| Patriots Win At Least | Now | Wednesday noon | Friday 1 p.m. | What $100 at today's ask returns |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Games | 72¢ / 76¢ | 77¢ / 80¢ | 71¢ / 72¢ | $132 |
| 9 Games | 59¢ / 64¢ | 68¢ / 69¢ | 61¢ / 68¢ | $156 |
| 10 Games | 48¢ / 49¢ | 59¢ / 60¢ | 42¢ / 43¢ | $204 |
| 11 Games | 37¢ / 41¢ | 40¢ / 41¢ | 28¢ / 32¢ | $244 |
| 12 Games | 21¢ / 25¢ | 28¢ / 33¢ | 20¢ / 24¢ | $400 |
Kalshi, KXNFLWINS-27NE, bid and ask at each timestamp from the hourly candles; "now" is 5:54 a.m. ET, September 12, 2026. Returns are rounded and gross of Kalshi's fee, which is charged on winning trades. Regular-season wins only; ties count as nothing.
The eleven-win rung is the one to watch. It was 40 and 41 before the opener, our Patriots win total page built its whole argument around it at 41 and 42 on September 6, and it was quoted 27 bid, 28 ask at noon Friday, before the IR report broke. This morning it is 37 and 41, a four-cent-wide quote with the bid ten cents above Friday noon's. A team that starts 0-1 needs 11 wins in its last 16 to reach 11, and the market spent Friday saying that was worth about 28 cents and Saturday morning saying about 39. Same information both times. One of those quotes had trades behind it.
Run the same ladder sum from the Wednesday section at Friday's low and you get about 8.9 expected wins; run it now and you get about 9.2. That three-tenths of a win is the whole "bought back" in the title, and nobody has yet paid for it.
What A Brown-Sized Move Would Look Like
The honest version of "the market has not priced Brown" has to say what pricing him would look like, because on a 17-game season the answer is smaller than the headlines suggest. He is out for four games, one of them at Buffalo, and the market has already told us what it charges per game. Kalshi's contract on the Patriots beating Pittsburgh in Week 2 stood at 65 bid, 66 ask at 8 p.m. Thursday, just before ESPN's MRI report, and 63 bid, 65 ask at 1 a.m. Friday: a cent or two. Charge the same for each of the four games and you get four to eight cents of game-win probability, which is four to eight hundredths of an expected win. The ladder's own sensitivity is in this page's numbers too: the ten-win rung gave up about ten cents, 58 to 48, while the expected win count fell about six-tenths, 9.8 to 9.2, so a rung in the middle of the ladder moves roughly 17 cents per expected win. Even eight hundredths of a win is a cent or two on the ten-win rung, inside today's one-cent-wide quote. Thursday night's four-to-five-cent leg priced Brown at three to six times what the Week 2 line charged for him, and the Saturday walk-back may be the book noticing that.
The place a Brown-sized move shows up cleanly is a single game, not a season. That Week 2 contract was 68 cents bid and 69 ask all Wednesday through kickoff, 64 and 66 by the end of the game, 63 and 64 by Friday, and 62 and 63 now, with 7,700 contracts open. Most of its six cents came off on Wednesday night with the interceptions; the MRI report got a cent or two and the IR hour got nothing. The Friday night trade there was a 1,134-contract buy at 63, so the Week 2 book has a real bid under it in a way the ten-win rung did not have on Saturday morning. When the sportsbooks post their Steelers-Patriots numbers, the live odds screen lines every book's price up next to the exchange's, and that is where to check whether anyone is charging more for four games without Brown than Kalshi's ten-win rung is.
The two contracts that did not move on Brown are worth a line each. New England to win the AFC is 8 cents bid and 9 ask, down from 10 before the game and up from 7 on Thursday. The Super Bowl contract is 3 and 4, down from 5. Neither has a Brown leg you can find on the tape. The AFC contract actually ticked up two cents during Thursday's selling hour, which tells you how little money rests in those books. The AFC East page has the division contract's Wednesday-night tape, and the Drake Maye MVP page has the one big trade that did go through this week against a Patriot: a six-figure sale of Maye's MVP contract at 2:02 a.m. Thursday, hours after the interceptions and hours before the MRI.
More on this: 49ers vs Rams: Someone Bet Six Figures At Midnight · Bears vs Panthers Odds: The Over Money And The Tape Disagree · Broncos vs Chiefs Odds: Everybody's On Denver · Cardinals vs Chargers Odds: Someone Keeps Selling L.A. · Commanders vs Eagles Odds: The Money Is All Philadelphia
What I'd Watch
The next real information arrives when the rest of the AFC East opens this weekend and the playoff board gets a slate of results to price against. Buffalo's playoff contract is 73 and 75, and the Bills' Week 4 game against New England is now a game the Patriots play without their best receiver on the road. Pittsburgh's own playoff contract is 38 and 39. If the Steelers look like a team in their opener, the Week 2 contract at 62 will tell you before the season boards do.
On the ten-win rung specifically, the number I keep coming back to is 42. That was the price after the ankle got its own hour on Thursday, and it held for about 14 hours with real trades behind it. If the next few thousand contracts trade at 47 and 48, the market has decided the ankle was worth a night's discount and no more. If they trade back toward 42, the Saturday quote was an empty book, and the earlier read was the honest one. Either way the answer will be on the tape, not in a press release, and this page will carry it after the Pittsburgh game.
Each of these Kalshi contracts pays $1.00 if the named outcome happens and nothing if it does not, less Kalshi's fee on winning trades. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, requires users to be 18+ under its own platform policy, and is not available in every state; check eligibility on the platform before trading. Prices here are a snapshot of live exchange quotes and move constantly; as with every board on this site, treat the figures as model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. For picks priced against these same boards, our free expert picks page updates through the week, and the Patriots vs Seahawks results page has the full grading of Wednesday's game.
Sources: Kalshi market data, hourly candles and tick-level trades for KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-NE, KXNFLWINS-27NE (all 17 rungs), KXNFLAFCEAST-27-NE, KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-NE, KXSB-27-NE and KXNFLGAME-26SEP20PITNE-NE, pulled September 12, 2026, at 5:54 a.m. ET; the injury play, interceptions and box score from ESPN's game summary; the MRI report from ESPN and NFL.com; the injured reserve move from ESPN, Pro Football Talk and CBS Sports; the schedule from ESPN.
