Who wins Patriots vs Seahawks? Kalshi makes Seattle a 62.5-cent favorite to beat New England on Wednesday night, September 9, in the NFL Kickoff game and the first Super Bowl rematch to open a season since Denver and Carolina in 2016. A panel of seven AI models that priced the game without seeing that number has the Seahawks at 58.2% as of September 8, 2026, a favorite by about a field goal rather than the 4.3 points of extra confidence the market adds on top.
The winner market is the smallest part of the disagreement. The panel sits under the market on all fourteen Seattle margin rungs, above it on all eleven New England rungs, and under it on all nineteen total-points rungs. The widest split on the board is not on who wins but on how many points get scored: over 42.5 trades at 56.5¢ and the panel has it at 50.5%.
Both teams went 14-3 last season. Seattle outscored its opponents by 191 points and New England by 170, and New England went 8-0 on the road. The market has had Seattle at 62 or 63 cents since August 24, and the reason it still leans this hard toward the home team is the Super Bowl scoreline and the habit of trusting a champion at home. The panel's case is that the champion lost more this offseason than the challenger did, and that home field in an opener is worth less than the market's habit says.
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The Board: Every Kalshi Line On Patriots-Seahawks
Each model got the same fact card, built on September 8, 2026. The card carried both teams' complete 2025 scoring ledgers, every meeting in the series since 2018, and Seattle's home ledger since 2021. It also carried the ledger of every Super Bowl rematch since 2000, the league's margin and total base rates, both 2026 rosters, the live injury feed, and a dated status record for both teams. It got no prices, no spread and no total, because a model that can see the price drifts toward the price. After a blind round, each seat read the other six seats' numbers and reasoning, anonymized, and revised or held.
Market is the midpoint between best bid and best offer as of September 8, 2026 at 8:12 AM ET. Our AI is the blended verdict, the middle number of the seven seats. A Kalshi price in cents is the market's probability, so the two columns compare directly. Kalshi lists 225 contracts on this game; the winner, the winning-margin ladder and the total-points ladder are the 46 the panel priced, because the player markets need game logs the card does not carry.
| Question | Market | Our AI | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks win the game | 62.5¢ | 58.2% | -4.3 |
| Patriots win the game | 37.5¢ | 41.5% | +4.0 |
| Seahawks win by 2 or more | 59.5¢ | 55.5% | -4.0 |
| Seahawks win by 3 or more | 57.5¢ | 52.0% | -5.5 |
| Seahawks win by 4 or more | 47.5¢ | 44.8% | -2.7 |
| Seahawks win by 5 or more | 44.5¢ | 42.0% | -2.5 |
| Seahawks win by 6 or more | 41.5¢ | 40.0% | -1.5 |
| Seahawks win by 7 or more | 39.5¢ | 36.0% | -3.5 |
| Seahawks win by 8 or more | 32.5¢ | 31.5% | -1.0 |
| Seahawks win by 10 or more | 29.5¢ | 27.7% | -1.8 |
| Seahawks win by 11 or more | 27.0¢ | 25.1% | -1.9 |
| Seahawks win by 14 or more | 21.5¢ | 21.0% | -0.5 |
| Seahawks win by 15 or more | 18.5¢ | 18.4% | -0.1 |
| Seahawks win by 17 or more | 16.5¢ | 15.8% | -0.7 |
| Seahawks win by 18 or more | 14.5¢ | 13.5% | -1.0 |
| Seahawks win by 21 or more | 10.5¢ | 9.7% | -0.8 |
| Patriots win by 2 or more | 35.5¢ | 38.0% | +2.5 |
| Patriots win by 3 or more | 33.5¢ | 35.3% | +1.8 |
| Patriots win by 4 or more | 26.5¢ | 29.7% | +3.2 |
| Patriots win by 5 or more | 23.5¢ | 27.1% | +3.6 |
| Patriots win by 6 or more | 22.0¢ | 24.8% | +2.8 |
| Patriots win by 7 or more | 19.5¢ | 22.0% | +2.5 |
| Patriots win by 8 or more | 15.5¢ | 18.7% | +3.2 |
| Patriots win by 10 or more | 13.5¢ | 15.0% | +1.5 |
| Patriots win by 11 or more | 10.5¢ | 13.0% | +2.5 |
| Patriots win by 14 or more | 8.5¢ | 9.8% | +1.3 |
| Patriots win by 15 or more | 7.5¢ | 8.3% | +0.8 |
| Over 23.5 total points | 95.5¢ | 95.3% | -0.2 |
| Over 26.5 total points | 92.5¢ | 91.7% | -0.8 |
| Over 29.5 total points | 88.5¢ | 87.2% | -1.3 |
| Over 32.5 total points | 82.5¢ | 80.7% | -1.8 |
| Over 35.5 total points | 76.0¢ | 72.9% | -3.1 |
| Over 38.5 total points | 67.5¢ | 63.5% | -4.0 |
| Over 41.5 total points | 59.5¢ | 54.5% | -5.0 |
| Over 42.5 total points | 56.5¢ | 50.5% | -6.0 |
| Over 43.5 total points | 53.5¢ | 48.2% | -5.3 |
| Over 44.5 total points | 48.5¢ | 45.0% | -3.5 |
| Over 45.5 total points | 45.5¢ | 41.3% | -4.2 |
| Over 46.5 total points | 43.5¢ | 38.3% | -5.2 |
| Over 47.5 total points | 40.5¢ | 35.7% | -4.8 |
| Over 50.5 total points | 31.5¢ | 27.5% | -4.0 |
| Over 53.5 total points | 24.5¢ | 21.5% | -3.0 |
| Over 56.5 total points | 17.5¢ | 15.8% | -1.7 |
| Over 59.5 total points | 13.5¢ | 11.0% | -2.5 |
| Over 62.5 total points | 10.5¢ | 7.5% | -3.0 |
| Over 65.5 total points | 6.5¢ | 5.0% | -1.5 |
These numbers are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Event contracts involve risk, and you can lose money trading them. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange (18+; availability varies by state, as of September 2026), and trading fees apply.
Every one of the 46 rows is quoted a cent or two wide, so each midpoint is a price someone is actually showing, not an arithmetic guess between a thin bid and a thin offer. The New England winner contract has drawn 747,408 contracts of volume, more than the 626,793 on the Seattle side of the same question.
Every Seat's Number
| Seat | Blind round | After revision | Expected margin, Seattle | Expected combined points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable | 56.0% | 57.4% | +2.5 | 43.0 |
| Claude Opus | 58.2% | 59.0% | +3.0 | 43.5 |
| Claude Sonnet | 61.9% | 59.7% | +3.2 | 43.0 |
| Gemini | 65.5% | 58.2% | +2.8 | 41.5 |
| Grok | 57.0% | 58.2% | +2.8 | 43.5 |
| Kimi | 56.0% | 58.9% | +3.0 | 43.5 |
| GLM | 62.9% | 58.2% | +2.8 | 43.5 |
| Panel Median | 58.2% | 58.2% | +2.8 | 43.5 |
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements — records to date: Claude Fable 90% on 2,256 graded calls · Claude Opus 90% on 2,378 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 88% on 2,355 graded calls · Gemini 87% on 7,680 graded calls · Grok 85% on 6,396 graded calls · Kimi 86% on 3,836 graded calls · GLM 84% on 3,557 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
Every number on this page gets graded in public once the game settles; the running tally lives on the full graded scoreboard.
More live boards from the same panel: AFC East odds, where New England trades at 39.5¢ to win the division · NFC West odds, where Seattle is 31.5¢ · the full Week 1 AI board on all 16 games.
How The Price Got Here
The Seattle contract's first close was 70¢ on May 16, the day after the market opened. It spent June and July between 62¢ and 71¢, closed at 63¢ to 66¢ through the middle of August, and has closed at 62¢ or 63¢ every day since August 24. The bid and the offer have sat at 62¢ and 63¢ since August 24, sixteen straight days, through 1,047,250 contracts of trading on the two sides of the winner market. The New England side closed between 35¢ and 36¢ in mid-August, at 39¢ from August 30 through September 3, and is 37¢ bid and 38¢ offered now.
The one line that has moved is the margin. Seattle by three or more closed at 56¢ to 58¢ in the last days of August and has closed at 59¢ every day since September 5, so the market has added a point or two of margin to a winner price it has not touched. The total has not moved at all: over 43.5 has closed between 51¢ and 55¢ since it first traded in August. September 8 is the biggest trading day the winner market has had, 292,749 contracts across the two sides before the pull, and it did not move the price a cent.
Why The Panel Sides With New England
All 27 winner and margin lines are quoted tighter than five cents, the range where a Kalshi quote is telling you something. On every one of them the panel lands on New England's side of the price: 27 lines pointing one way and none pointing the other. The nineteen total rungs are a second, separate disagreement, covered below.
That is one disagreement about the football game showing up 27 times, and it has two parts.
The first is about who is better, and the answer is that nobody was better last year. Seattle scored 28.4 points a game and allowed 17.2; New England scored 28.8 and allowed 18.8. Run both point differentials through a Pythagorean estimate and Seattle comes out near 13 wins, New England near 12.5. Two 14-win teams that close, so the board is decided by adjustments, and the panel made two of them the market has not.
The first adjustment is home field. Seattle went 22-20 at home from 2021 through 2025 and won those games by an average of 2.1 points, against a league in which home teams win 53.9% of the time. In openers the edge disappears: home teams won exactly 50% of the 80 Week 1 games in that span. Every seat discounted Seattle's home field twice, once for the team's own ledger and once for the week.
The second is who lost what. Kenneth Walker III, the Super Bowl MVP, signed with Kansas City. Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak left to coach the Raiders, and Brian Fleury, the 49ers' run-game coordinator for the previous seven seasons, is installing a new offense in a short week. Zach Charbonnet is out with a knee injury the league feed lists as an ACL, so the back Seattle paired with its first-round rookie, Jadarian Price, is gone too. The secondary is thinner still: Ty Okada, a starting safety, did not practice Sunday or Monday with a hamstring, Nick Emmanwori is limited coming off ankle surgery, and the league's injury feed lists cornerback Terrion Arnold as out. Julian Love and Emmanwori are the only other safeties on the 53-man roster; the practice-squad names Mike Macdonald offered were Rodney Thomas II, D'Anthony Bell, AJ Finley and Maxen Hook. New England's absences are real but narrower: center Ben Brown did not travel and is out, and TreVeyon Henderson has not practiced since Saturday with an ankle.
Against that, New England was 8-0 on the road last season, winning by an average of 10.0 points and going 6 and 0 in one-score road games, and its offense threw 10 interceptions to Seattle's 18. The seats also refused to read the Super Bowl as a talent gap. Seattle won that game by 16; it had won the two regular-season meetings before it by 5 and by 3.
The second part is the total, and it is unanimous. The panel is under the market on all nineteen rungs, by as much as 6.0 points. The market's 50-cent line sits between over 43.5 and over 44.5; the panel's sits between over 42.5 and over 43.5. Week 1 games in this span averaged 43.6 points against 45.0 for the season as a whole, both of these defenses allowed fewer than 19 points a game, and the last two meetings in the series landed on 43 and 42. The six Super Bowl rematches since 2000 averaged 39.7 points, and the seats treated that as what it is, a six-game sample, rather than an anchor.
The Best Case Against This Board
The blind round had Seattle as high as 65.5% and 62.9%, and both of those seats came down once they read the others. The case for a bigger favorite is real. Drake Maye took no preseason snaps and plays his first live football since the Super Bowl on the road against a defense that recorded 47 sacks last season, behind a backup center. His coach said in August, after the preseason game against the Eagles, "I do not think we have a very deep team." And the champion has won 5 of the 6 Super Bowl rematches since 2000, by an average of 5.3 points.
The seat that priced Seattle highest in the blind round did it for a reason the card does not support: it described Maye as a rookie making his first start. Three other seats flagged it, and the seat revised to 58.2%.
I specifically decline to move toward Forecaster B's 5.5: its central argument is that New England starts a 'rookie quarterback,' which is wrong — Drake Maye was drafted in 2024 and just took this team to a Super Bowl, so the true adjustment is a no-preseason-snaps rust discount, worth well under a point, not a rookie-on-the-road discount worth three. — Claude Opus
Kimi, which finished at 58.9%, made the fairest version of the Seattle case: "I credit Seattle slightly more for the pass-rush mismatch against a backup center and Maye's zero live reps, so I stay at 3.0 rather than sliding to 2.0." A backup center against the better pass rush, and a quarterback with no live reps, are the two things that could make the market right.
What Would Move These Numbers
- Ty Okada's hamstring. Seattle's starting safety did not practice Sunday or Monday. If he sits, Seattle's safety room on Wednesday is Julian Love, a limited Emmanwori and practice-squad call-ups, and the panel's New England number goes up.
- TreVeyon Henderson's ankle. He did not practice Sunday or Monday either and carries a Questionable tag. Without him, New England's backfield is thinner against a front that produced 47 sacks.
- The center position. Ben Brown is out. A backup center against Seattle's pass rush is the strongest argument the market has, and the panel already priced it; a clean first quarter for Maye would close the gap faster than anything else on this list.
- Maye's first snaps. No preseason reps is the market's other argument. A slow start makes the market right on the total as well as the winner.
- Weather. Lumen Field is open-air and a September forecast was not on the card.
The final injury report for a Wednesday game came out Monday, September 7. Kickoff is 8:20 PM ET on Wednesday, September 9, at Lumen Field on NBC, and every contract settles on the final score. Per the contract terms, "If the game ends in a tie, the market will resolve to $0.50 for each team." The margin and total contracts have no such clause. Prices on this page carry their September 8, 2026 stamp and are re-captured when the story moves.
The Widest Gap Is Not The Winner Market
The winner market disagreement is real but modest, 62.5¢ against 58.2%. Further down the ladder the picture sharpens. Seattle by three or more trades at 57.5¢ and the panel has it at 52.0%: the market says a Seattle win by a field goal or more is more likely than not, and the panel says it is a coin flip. Three is the most common winning margin in football, landing in 14.64% of regular-season games, which is why a point of expected margin moves this rung more than any other.
The total is wider still. Over 42.5 trades at 56.5¢ against a panel median of 50.5%, and over 43.5 at 53.5¢ against 48.2%. Seven models that never saw a price and disagreed about plenty else all put this game under 43.5 points, and the market has not moved off 51¢ to 55¢ on the over-43.5 rung since August.
The money has not tested any of it. The winner market has been bid 62¢ and offered 63¢ since August 24, through the biggest trading day the contract has had, and the margin rung has crept a point or two toward Seattle in the meantime. The market has held its view of who wins and slightly raised its view of by how much. The panel disagrees with both, in the same direction, on every line it can be graded on.
More on this: Broncos vs Chiefs Prediction: AI vs Kalshi on All 46 Lines · Seahawks vs Patriots Spread: Kalshi Says 4, Pinnacle Says 3 · Patriots vs Seahawks Picks: The Champs Aren't The Same Team · Patriots Win Total: The Books Agree On The Number. The Machines Don't
The Bottom Line
Seattle is a favorite because it is the champion, at home, and the market has believed that since May. The panel sees two rosters that were the same team last year, a home edge worth less in an opener than the market's habit says, and a champion that lost more this offseason than the challenger, and it prices New England higher on every line the market tightly quotes. Kimi's objection, that the market's two real arguments deserve more weight than the cluster gave them, is the fair counter. Grading posts to the scoreboard after Wednesday night's settlement, win or lose.
Compare the sportsbook side of this same game on our Patriots vs Seahawks Week 1 picks page, and the point-spread history on the Seahawks vs Patriots spread page.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Sam Darnold photo by the Tennessee Titans, licensed CC BY 3.0; photo cropped, toned, and composited.
