Prices as of Wednesday, September 9, 2026, 2:25 p.m. ET, after both teams' final injury reports.
As of Wednesday, September 9, 2026: the Seahawks are 61 to 62 cents on Kalshi to beat the Patriots in tonight's season opener at Lumen Field, and the number finally moved, the other way: DraftKings is Seattle -3 (-118) this afternoon after four months at -3.5, with FanDuel, Caesars, Hard Rock and PointsBet still posting 3.5. TreVeyon Henderson was ruled out on Wednesday's final injury report. The pick at the bottom is unchanged from August 31: Patriots +3.5, held on Kalshi as "no" on Seattle by over 3.5, which costs 53 to 54 cents now; the +3.5 itself is still posted at Caesars (-116) and FanDuel, and it is gone at DraftKings.
Eighteen days before his team opens the season against the champions, Mike Vrabel said the quiet part into a microphone. "I do not think we have a very deep team," he told reporters after the Patriots' preseason game against the Eagles, per Boston.com on August 23, "so I think we have to make sure that we are preparing our football team and that we are doing everything that we can to keep our best players available." Then he did exactly that: on Thursday night he sat all 38 of his starters, including Drake Maye, A.J. Brown and Christian Gonzalez, and watched the backups lose 37-13 to Cleveland. On August 30 he cut to 53, and 41 of the 53 are players he has acquired since January 2025, per Boston.com. "I just think that it's best for us right now," he said afterward, per Patriots.com, "to try to start next week with the guys that we have."
Wednesday is Seattle. The Patriots and Seahawks open the NFL season on Wednesday, September 9, at Lumen Field, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC, a Super Bowl LX rematch. Seattle won that Super Bowl 29-13 in February, sacked Maye six times, and pressured him on nearly half his dropbacks. On Kalshi, where a price in cents is a probability, the Seahawks trade at 62 to 63 cents to win the rematch. The Patriots are 37 to 38, their last trade a cent below where it sat a week ago. The spread has not moved since May, and that is still the whole story of this game: a week of practice reports, including the one that says TreVeyon Henderson has not practiced since August 24, has not moved it either. If you just want the pick, it's at the bottom, under "The Number I'd Take." The reasoning is in between.
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The Game Lines
Kalshi in cents, DraftKings in American odds.
Kalshi shows the bid and the ask; Monday, September 7, 12:20 p.m. ET.
| Line | Kalshi | DraftKings |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline: Seattle Wins | 61-62¢ | -170 |
| Moneyline: New England Wins | 38-39¢ | +142 |
| Spread: Seattle Wins By 4 Or More | 46-47¢ | Seattle -3 (-118) / Patriots +3 (-102); the 3.5 still posts at Caesars (-116) |
| Spread: Seattle Wins By 3 Or More | 56-57¢ | no standard -2.5 on the board |
| Total: Over 44.5 Points | 48-49¢ | 44.5 (over -105 / under -115); 59% of DraftKings' spread tickets and 61% of the money are on New England |
DraftKings had Seattle at -3.5 from the day the schedule came out on May 14 until Wednesday afternoon, when the official out on Henderson finally moved it, to -3 (-118) with the Patriots +3 at -102. The roster cuts did not move it, the first injury reports did not move it, and two weeks without Henderson at practice did not move it; what moved first was the juice. A week ago the Seattle side cost -105; by Monday it was -102, with the Patriots side at -118, a book making Seattle a little cheaper because the money kept arriving on New England, and on Wednesday the number itself gave way, with 59% of the spread tickets and 61% of the money on the Patriots. Kalshi produced the opposite twitch over the same week: the Patriots' last trade slipped from 39 cents back to 38, and Seattle closed at the same two prices in the table every single day from August 23, a week before cut-down, through Monday; on Wednesday afternoon it trades a cent lower, 61 to 62, with New England 38 to 39. Volume is the only thing rising. Sunday's 51,878 Seattle contracts made it the busiest day since August 23, roughly double the count from September 1, and every one of them printed inside the same two cents. If you want to compare that to every other book's number before you act on it, the live odds screen lines them up side by side. The ten-cent gap between "Seattle by over 2.5" and "Seattle by over 3.5" is the price of the number three, the most common winning margin in football, and it is a cent wider than it was a week ago.
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Henderson Is Out
TreVeyon Henderson was ruled out on the Patriots' final injury report Wednesday, along with center Ben Brown (knee); Christian Barmore practiced in full and carries no designation. The backfield question in this game is New England's now. TreVeyon Henderson hurt his right ankle when he slipped on the turf at practice on August 24, per Pro Football Talk, and has not practiced since. The first report was the reassuring one: the Boston Globe's Christopher Price wrote that a league source said Henderson had avoided a serious injury and "should be 'good to go' for Week 1." Then the practices kept passing without him. He sat out Saturday, when Vrabel would only say "we'll see where TreVeyon is today at practice," per the team's transcript, and on Sunday, September 6, he was one of three Patriots listed as non-participants on the first official injury report of the season, with defensive tackle Christian Barmore (knee) and center Ben Brown (knee), per Patriots.com. On Monday morning, before the team's last practice in Foxborough and the flight west, Vrabel had not moved off it: "We'll see how he feels today. We'll see if he can do anything. He's working extremely hard to come back," per Heavy.
If Henderson cannot go, the plan is not complicated, per ESPN's Mike Reiss: Rhamondre Stevenson is the starter, and he already was the snap leader in last year's opener, 46 to Henderson's 25. "I love the way that Rhamondre protects," Vrabel said, per ESPN, and on Saturday he added that the way Stevenson "finished the year, that was exciting." Behind him the 53 carries exactly one other tailback, Corey Kiner, acquired from Arizona for a seventh-round pick with 30 career snaps, and the practice squad holds Lan Larison, a second-year back who knows Josh McDaniels' system, and Hassan Haskins, a four-year veteran of 44 games and an ex-Titan. What New England would lose is the explosive half of the room: Henderson carried 180 times for 911 yards and nine touchdowns as a rookie, 5.1 a carry, and played every game. What it would keep is the back its coach trusts in protection, which, against the front that sacked Maye six times in February, is not nothing.
Seattle's half of the backfield is the one this page described a week ago, and it has not changed. Zach Charbonnet stays on PUP through at least Week 4, so it is rookie Jadarian Price, George Holani and Emanuel Wilson, who was a full participant Sunday after a hamstring issue, per Seahawks.com. The rest of Seattle's first report is a secondary story again: safety Ty Okada did not practice (hamstring), Nick Emmanwori, back from offseason ankle surgery, was limited, and guard Anthony Bradford, tackle Josh Jones and receiver Tory Horton were limited too, per Seahawks.com, which described its own team as "pretty thin at safety" with three on the roster. Wednesday's final report settled it: Okada is out, Emmanwori and Horton are questionable, Jones stayed limited, and Bradford and Emanuel Wilson were full. The name that mattered most to this page a week ago is the one that is missing: Christian Gonzalez is not on New England's injury report at all.
How The Champions Lost Their Super Bowl MVP And Their Play-Caller
Seattle is not the team that won the Super Bowl. Kenneth Walker III, who ran for 135 yards that night and was named the game's MVP, left for Kansas City in March on a three-year, $45 million deal. Klint Kubiak, the offensive coordinator, took the Raiders' head-coaching job; Brian Fleury, promoted from the 49ers' tight-end room, calls plays for the first time in his life on September 9. The secondary that held New England to 48 first-half passing yards has turned over too: Coby Bryant went to Chicago, Riq Woolen to Philadelphia, and Bud Clark, the rookie safety drafted to replace one of them, broke his ankle on his first defensive snap in Tennessee and went on injured reserve for the season. The August 30 cut-down told you how thin it is: Seattle released veteran corners Trevon Diggs and Noah Igbinoghene, kept five cornerbacks and three safeties, and on August 29 signed Terrion Arnold, Detroit's 2024 first-round pick, who cannot practice or play; the league parked him on the commissioner's exempt list over eight felony charges from a June arrest, per NFL.com. With Charbonnet on PUP, Macdonald admitted on August 27 that the team "haven't been afforded the luxury of having the bodies" to give rookie Jadarian Price reps.
New England spent the summer buying: A.J. Brown from Philadelphia on June 1 for a 2028 first-round pick, Romeo Doubs, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Dre'Mont Jones and Kevin Byard in March. The thing that actually lost the Super Bowl is still there: ESPN's Bill Barnwell counted 28 pressures on Maye that night and charged 14 of them to left tackle Will Campbell, the most by any player in any game all season. Maye was sacked 68 times across 21 games last year, and Seattle's front, which generated 56 sacks, just gave Leonard Williams three years and $90 million. New England's own pass rush lost Harold Landry to the PUP list on August 30, knee, out through at least Week 4; "we just want to be very careful and smart with them," Vrabel said, per Boston.com. The Patriots have a win total of their own to worry about; Seattle's playoff price already assumes the roster holds.
Gonzalez, Witherspoon And The $33 Million Question
The two best young cornerbacks in this game share an agent, and only one of them got paid. Devon Witherspoon signed a four-year, $132 million extension with Seattle in August, the richest cornerback contract in league history. Christian Gonzalez, who missed both of New England's joint-practice weeks with an ankle injury, was asked last week about his own talks. "I mean, it's frustrating," he said, per NBC Sports. He made the 53 on August 30, and Pro Football Talk reported the same day that the two sides are talking: the length is settled at four new years, the fight is structure and total dollars, and Gonzalez wants to clear the $33 million a year Witherspoon just set. Robert Kraft has said the offer on the table would make him the highest-paid player in franchise history. Vrabel, asked on August 24 whether Gonzalez would be ready: "I'm not ready to talk about Week 1."
Two weeks later Gonzalez is practicing and unsigned, and he is not saying he will play. He told MassLive on September 3 he was "still frustrated," and asked whether a deal gets done by Wednesday: "I'm not sure. I don't know," per Boston.com. On Saturday, asked directly about the opener, he said "I'm focused on today right now," and he waved off the idea that he has asked for a trade: "I'm here right now. I'll always be where my feet are and do what I gotta do," per Boston.com. Vrabel's answer to the same question is the one that matters for Wednesday: "As the head coach, I expect every player that is healthy and under contract to practice and to play," per Boston.com. Gonzalez is healthy, by the report, and he is under contract; the team has already exercised his fifth-year option, which takes his 2027 cap number from $4.8 million to $18.1 million.
One more thing that could change a snap: the quarterback who won the Super Bowl keeps saying he did not play well in it. "I want to freaking score like 40 points," Sam Darnold said in June, per CBS Sports.
The Number I'd Take, And Where I'm Out
Here is how I'd bet it, writing this Monday with the Patriots on their way to Seattle, the first injury reports in, and two days to kickoff.
The spot is not the revenge game; I don't bet those, and neither team has said the other's name in August. The spot is a 3.5-point favorite that has not been able to become a 4 in almost four months of public betting, not after a cut-down weekend that went its way and not after two weeks without the other team's best young back at practice, against a team whose coach told you out loud what he thinks of his depth. When a number wants to move and can't, I want to know why, and the honest answer here is that the money has been coming in on New England. The trenches are the best case for Seattle, and it's a real one: Seattle's front is intact and paid, Campbell's protection in the Super Bowl was the worst single game any lineman had all season, and a quarterback who takes 68 sacks is a quarterback who turns it over. If you're laying the 3.5 because of that, I would not blame you a bit.
But I'm not laying a field goal and a hook with the champions who lost their Super Bowl MVP, their play-caller and half their secondary, in the one game a year where nobody has a single snap of current-season tape. Outside of a field goal, give me the Patriots +3.5, and on Kalshi the cleanest way to hold that exact position is "no" on "Seattle wins by over 3.5," which cost 52 cents when this published and 53 to 54 cents Wednesday afternoon, after DraftKings moved to Seattle -3; the +3.5 itself is still posted at Caesars (-116) and FanDuel, and this bet is about the 3.5; the 3 is a different bet. That contract took one real run at me in between: two sweeps of about 9,400 contracts each, three minutes apart just after 6:30 p.m. ET on September 1, pushed "Seattle by over 3.5" from 48 to 51 cents and printed as high as 53, with no news attached. By September 3 it was back at 49, and it has closed at 48 or 49 every day since. The order book says which way the crowd leans from here: 73,776 contracts are queued to buy the Patriots side at 51 cents, against 11,664 offered at 52. If this moves to 3, I'm out; at 3 it's Seattle's number, not mine. A week ago I called it a small play until Gonzalez practices in full and said I'd add if the number was still 3.5 when he did. He is practicing, he is not on the report, and the number is still 3.5, so I'm adding. Not doubling: Henderson missing is a real minus for the side I'm on, even if the back New England would lean on is the one its coach trusts to protect. I'm passing on the total; 44.5 is exactly where two teams that combined for 42 in the Super Bowl should sit, the seven or eight cents between the 43.5 and 45.5 contracts on Kalshi says the market agrees, and Wednesday's forecast at Lumen Field is mostly sunny, mid-70s at the 5:20 local kickoff and falling through the 60s, with wind around 5 mph, so the weather is not going to argue either. Tell me why I'm wrong.
More on this: Patriots vs Seahawks Kalshi Player Props: Seattle Gives Up Catches, Not Yards · Patriots vs Seahawks Props: The Middle Of The Field Is Open · A.J. Brown Injury: The Patriots Got Sold, Then Bought Back · Patriots Win Total: The Books Agree On The Number. The Machines Don't · First Atlantic Hurricane Odds: What If There Isn't One?
What Moves The Price From Here
- Henderson's Designation: out. The formal out arrived Wednesday, and the market answered by going the other way: DraftKings moved Seattle from -3.5 to -3, not to 4, and Kalshi's Seattle price slipped a cent. Two weeks of a non-participant listing had already been priced; the label was not the news.
- Gonzalez, Practicing And Unsigned: he is not on the injury report, he says he is "focused on today," and Vrabel says he expects every healthy player under contract to play. An extension before Wednesday is still the one headline that could push this number to 4; the precedent is Gilmore in 2020, a $5 million bump days before the opener.
- Seattle's Safeties: Okada is out and Emmanwori questionable on a roster carrying three. It is the Patriots' passing game, not the Seahawks', that gets the softer draw.
This one settles on Wednesday, September 9, 2026, at the final score.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Drake Maye photo by Tennessee Titans, licensed CC BY 3.0; Jaxon Smith-Njigba photo by FanDuel, licensed CC BY 3.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
Prices quoted are live Kalshi market prices as of Monday, September 7, 2026, and will keep moving until these markets settle after the September 9, 2026 game. OddsShopper covers prediction markets as an independent analyst: any model or panel figures referenced are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Betting involves risk; contracts can go to zero. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
