The Read
A tight end running into the part of the field Seattle's injuries just opened. A receiver who drew a target every four routes last year, playing his first game for a new team. A running back the market promoted to a workhorse on Sunday's injury news. The Tuesday and Wednesday reports decide two of the three.
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The Lines
| Prop | Consensus | Best price at the number | Pinnacle | Books range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry receiving yards (over) | 34.5 | FanDuel posts 33.5 (-114); DraftKings 34.5 (-110) | 34.5 (-111 / -113) | 24.5 (BetMGM) to 35.5 (Bet365) |
| A.J. Brown receiving yards (under) | 62.5 | DraftKings -111; PointsBet posts 65.5 (-125) | 60.5 (-118 / -106) | 60.5 (Circa) to 74.5 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson rush attempts (under) | 15.5 | DraftKings +100; Fanatics -110 | 14.5 (-130 / +104) | 14.5 (Pinnacle) to 16.5 |
Lines as of September 8, 2026, from the OddsShopper board; they move daily. Seahawks -3.5, total 44.5, implied totals Seattle 24.0 and New England 20.5. Kickoff is Wednesday, September 9, 8:20 p.m. ET at Lumen Field; forecast 76 degrees, wind 5 mph, no weather angle.
Hunter Henry Over 33.5 Receiving Yards
Seattle's defense gives ground in one place, the middle, and this week it is short the players who patrol it. The Seahawks faced 8.5 tight end targets a game last year, fifth-most in the league, and allowed 63.5 tight end yards a game, sixth-most, while playing zone on 80.4% of snaps, third-most, and sitting in two-high looks on 52.4%. Henry ran 2.07 yards per route against zone last year on 52 targets, better than 92% of tight ends, against 1.16 on 21 targets against man. He cleared 33.5 in 11 of 17. Now the safeties: Ty Okada, the projected starter next to Julian Love, did not practice Sunday with a hamstring, Nick Emmanwori was limited coming off ankle surgery, and Seattle carries three safeties on the roster. Mike Macdonald's Baltimore defenses were bottom-three in tight end targets faced, so the leak is Seattle's personnel and not his scheme, but the personnel is what's hurt. Josh McDaniels gave his tight ends 40.9% of the red-zone targets last year, second in the league, and Henry drew 24.7% of New England's.
Hunter Henry over 33.5 receiving yards, -114 on FanDuel, or over 34.5 at -110 on DraftKings.
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A.J. Brown Under 62.5 Receiving Yards
Seattle's pass defense had the strangest split in the league last year: it allowed 10.2 catches a game to wide receivers and 6.25 yards per target to them, the fewest in football, and 111.7 receiving yards a game to the position, second-fewest. It lets receivers catch the ball and tackles them. Brown drew 26.0% of Philadelphia's targets last year, a target every four routes, and turned them into 8.29 yards per target; at Seattle's rate the same eight targets are 50 yards. He is also a man-coverage receiver, 3.03 yards per route against man and 1.98 against zone, and Seattle played zone on 80.4% of its snaps, third-most in the league. Devon Witherspoon can travel to him, and this is his first game in a new offense with a new quarterback. The volume is the case for the over, and it is why his catches are the market to buy; the yards are the market to sell. He finished under 62.5 in 7 of 15 games last year in an offense that fed him more than this one has had time to.
A.J. Brown under 62.5 receiving yards, -111 on DraftKings. PointsBet posts 65.5 at -125; Pinnacle 60.5.
Rhamondre Stevenson Under 16.5 Rush Attempts
The line moved from 14.5 to 15.5 over the weekend because TreVeyon Henderson has not practiced since August 24 and is leaning toward missing Wednesday, and the move prices Stevenson as a workhorse he has never been. He carried it more than 15 times once in 14 games last year, on a 32.8% share of the carries, and averaged nine. New England ran it 24.1 times a game, and this week it is a 3.5-point dog against the defense that allowed 3.4 yards a carry last year, fewest in the league, with the fewest explosive runs allowed in football; a trailing offense against that front throws. Henderson out makes Stevenson the starter, but Corey Kiner is behind him and Josh McDaniels has split this backfield every season he has called it. The under holds with Henderson active or out, because the roof on the number is the script and the front.
Rhamondre Stevenson under 15.5 rush attempts, +100 on DraftKings. Fanatics has the same number at -110.
Bottom Line
Henry over 33.5 is the play I'd make first. Brown under 62.5 is the other side of Seattle's split: it concedes the catch and not the yards. Stevenson under 15.5 is the one the market handed us by overreacting to an injury report.
Follow Dave on X: @Loughy.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Drake Maye photo by Tennessee Titans, licensed CC BY 3.0; Sam Darnold photo by Tennessee Titans, licensed CC BY 4.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
Odds quoted are from the OddsShopper live-odds board as of September 8, 2026, and will move before kickoff on September 9, 2026; always check the number at your book before betting. OddsShopper is an independent analyst: any figures referenced are estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Must be 21+ to wager at a sportsbook (18+ on prediction markets); availability varies by state. Betting involves risk. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
