Updated November 3, 2026
The World Wide Technology Championship odds on Kalshi make Ryan Gerard and defending champion Ben Griffin the two favorites, and neither is priced as better than a one in ten chance. The field at El Cardonal in Los Cabos is thin at the top, and in all three editions played there the winner started Sunday behind and shot 63.
Three Winners, Three Sunday 63s
El Cardonal at Diamante is a Tiger Woods design, the first of his courses to host a PGA Tour event, and the tournament moved there from Mayakoba in 2023. The 2026 edition runs November 5 to 8.
Every winner at El Cardonal has come from behind with a final-round 63. Erik van Rooyen started Sunday one shot back in 2023 and won at 27 under. Austin Eckroat was one back and in fourth place in 2024 and won at 24 under. Ben Griffin was two back in 2025 and won at 29 under. No player who led or shared the lead after 54 holes has won here.
El Cardonal has no rough. In 2025 it gave up the highest rates of fairways hit and greens in regulation of any course on Tour, and Rob Bolton, in his November 2 power rankings for PGA TOUR, called it a week about hitting greens and making putts. On a course where most approach shots find the green, a few shots after Saturday is a small cushion, which fits the three Sunday comebacks.
Griffin, Gerard and a Thin Top of the Field
Griffin won by two shots in 2025, his third Tour title of that season. His 259 total is the tournament record, and a second straight win would make him the first player since Viktor Hovland in 2020 and 2021 to defend this title, the same PGA TOUR preview noted. He tied for fourth at the VidantaWorld Mexico Open on November 1.
Gerard is the highest-ranked player in the field at No. 23 in the world, with Griffin at No. 25, and they are the only two inside the top 50 on the PGA TOUR field page. Gerard lost the Memorial in a playoff in June, finished third at the TOUR Championship in August and tied for fourth at the Baycurrent Classic in October, his last start.
Jackson Koivun and Ben James sit next on the board. Koivun won the 3M Open in July in his third start as a professional, at 25 under and three shots ahead of Scottie Scheffler, but he did not play any of the last three Tour events. James, who reached the Tour through PGA TOUR University, tied for 16th in Mexico.
What a Kalshi Winner Contract Pays
| Market | World Wide Technology Championship Winner (Kalshi) |
| Price for Yes | 6.7 cents for Ryan Gerard, the board's top price, about a one in 15 chance |
| As of | November 3, 2026 |
| Golfer | Win | Top 5 | Top 10 | Top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Gerard | 6.7¢ | 24¢ | 35.5¢ | 54¢ |
| Ben Griffin | 6.4¢ | 25¢ | 38.5¢ | 55.5¢ |
| Ben James | 5.4¢ | 20.5¢ | 33.5¢ | 49¢ |
| Jackson Koivun | 4.5¢ | 18.5¢ | 29¢ | 46¢ |
| Blades Brown | 3¢ | 13.5¢ | 24¢ | 38¢ |
| Keith Mitchell | 2.4¢ | 13¢ | 21¢ | 33¢ |
| Ben Kohles | 2.3¢ | 12.5¢ | 21.5¢ | 36¢ |
| Jackson Suber | 2.3¢ | 12¢ | 19.5¢ | 32.5¢ |
| Chris Kirk | 2.3¢ | 11¢ | 18¢ | 32¢ |
| Kristoffer Ventura | 2.2¢ | 12¢ | 19.5¢ | 32.5¢ |
| Harry Hall | 2.2¢ | 13.5¢ | 23.5¢ | 38.5¢ |
| Jordan Smith | 2.1¢ | 14¢ | 23¢ | 37.5¢ |
| Steven Fisk | 2.1¢ | 10.5¢ | 18.5¢ | 31.5¢ |
| Marco Penge | 2.1¢ | 10¢ | 16.5¢ | 28.5¢ |
Win is the last trade. Top 5, top 10 and top 20 are the middle of the buy and sell quotes on Kalshi's finishing-position boards, where most contracts had not traded yet. At almost the same price to win, Harry Hall was priced at 38.5 cents to finish top 20 and Marco Penge at 28.5 cents. Kalshi lists 116 golfers to win; five players in the field (Muzzy Donohue, Will Gordon, Willie Mack III, Nicholas Marchese and Nathan Tseng) had no winner contract, and Adam Schenk was listed but is not in the field or among the alternates. The first-round leader and first-round top-5 and top-10 boards were listed with no buyers yet.
A winner contract pays $1 if that golfer wins and nothing if he does not, so its price in cents reads as the market's percentage chance for him.
The contract rules matter most when a golfer drops out. Under Kalshi's rules for this market, a golfer who withdraws or does not tee off settles No on the winner board, with no refund. The top-5, top-10 and top-20 contracts settle a pre-tournament withdrawal at fair market value instead, and a withdrawal after a golfer tees off settles No on every board. The finishing-position contracts count ties as finishing in the tier, so a tie for 20th pays in full. The first-round leader board is the exception on ties: when players share the lead after Thursday, each Yes pays $1 divided by the number of players tied, rounded down to the cent.
Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 Prices for DFS Players
Kalshi's finishing-position boards price the same week from the other end. A winner contract pays only for a ceiling and a top-20 contract pays for a floor, the same split a DFS player makes between a tournament lineup built to win and a cash-game lineup built to finish in the money. Two golfers priced alike to win can be priced well apart to finish top 20, and the higher top-20 price is the market's read of the steadier week.
The ESPN leaderboards above show what each finish took at El Cardonal, ties included:
| Year | Winner | Winning score | Top 10 took | Top 20 took | Cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Ben Griffin | -29 | -23 | -19 | -5 |
| 2024 | Austin Eckroat | -24 | -17 | -14 | -2 |
| 2023 | Erik van Rooyen | -27 | -19 | -18 | -5 |
In two of three years a top-20 finish took 18 or 19 under, about 4.5 under par a round. More on the lineup side is on Stokastic's PGA DFS picks page, and our Kalshi golf picks hub covers golf contracts more broadly.
What Five AI Models Said Without Seeing Prices
On November 3, we asked five AI models to price the whole field, to win and to finish in each tier, without showing them any market prices. They gave Griffin between a 6% and a 10% chance to win and Gerard between 7% and 8.5%, with middle answers of 8.5% and 8%. Those middle answers sit a little above Kalshi's numbers on the day, and the five agreed with each other within about four points on every golfer's chance to win. They split far more on the top-20 question, where Kristoffer Ventura, tied for second in Mexico, drew anywhere from 25% to 55%. They are a check on the reading above, not proof of it: on the winner they match the shape of the board, and the wide top-20 range says the middle of this field is hard to separate.
Why a Longshot Can Still Win at El Cardonal
Low rounds at El Cardonal have come from all over this field. Sami Välimäki and Garrick Higgo each shot 61 here in 2025, Higgo tied for sixth and tied for fourth in his two starts on the course, and Matt Kuchar tied for second in 2023 and for 11th in 2025. The top two have mixed records here. Griffin tied for 23rd and 24th in his first two tries before he won, and Gerard has a missed cut and a tie for 14th.
What to Watch Before Thursday
Withdrawals come first, for the settlement reasons above. The field page lists ten alternates in order, starting with Harry Higgs and Adam Hadwin.
The wind comes next. The PGA TOUR forecast calls for northwest wind near 14 mph on Thursday, easing to 8 or 9 mph by the weekend, and Bolton's case for another come-from-behind winner rests on light weekend wind.
Koivun's first round is the third thing to watch, after his break from the last three Tour events and with no start in this tournament's last four editions.
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Market price from Kalshi as of the date above. Prices change constantly. Nothing here is a prediction of fact, and it is not financial advice.
