Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday afternoon, October 14, 2026.
Kickoff: Sunday, October 18, 1:00 PM ET, Gillette Stadium
I thought the Raiders could hang in New England. I thought their defense could get to Drake Maye and make him uncomfortable. That was not the case, and the game was never competitive. Maye looks like a different quarterback than he did early in the year, and the Patriots' defense has a habit of making offenses look broken. Seven is big in the division, and I'm laying it: Patriots -7.
How Often Does It Actually Happen?A betting line only tells you the price. The Sims play every game 10,000 times, so you see how often something actually happens and whether the price is worth paying. They're the same Sims behind the Stokastic.com DFS tools, where a subscriber won $1 million last week. In this game, the Sims like Drake Maye under 3 passing TDs: it hits in 80.6% of the Sims, and Kalshi charges 75.3¢. It works for DraftKings and FanDuel bets too. Tap a question and the Sims answer it, free, no login:
How often do the Patriots win by 7+? · How often does Drake Maye throw 2+ touchdowns? · Best 2-leg combo for this game
Tap the card for the full answer.
The Game Lines
| Bet | Kalshi (¢ ≈ % chance) | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Patriots win by 7+ | 54¢ | Patriots -7 |
| Over 43.5 points | 51¢ | 43.5 |
| Patriots win | 76¢ | Patriots -340 / Jets +270 |
Maye Just Played His Best Game
New England beat Las Vegas 45-17. Maye went 26 of 34 for 374 and four touchdowns with no interceptions, and he was 4 of 6 for 149 on throws of 20 or more yards. DeMario Douglas caught two of the touchdowns. The run game averaged 6.0 yards a carry.
The Patriots also opened the 21-day practice window for A.J. Brown, and there are reports he could be back this week. They don't need him. One receiver doesn't move a line from 7 to 10, but if he plays, I like this game even more.
The Jets Can't Get It To Garrett Wilson
I'm a big Garrett Wilson fan; I think all of us are. It doesn't matter if you can't get him the ball. The Jets beat Cleveland 17-12 with Geno Smith going 17 of 30 for 182, and his receivers dropped five passes. Braelon Allen carried 24 times for 116.
New England's defense has put the clamps on Josh Allen and made a Raiders offense that had been scoring plenty look dysfunctional. I don't expect it to go any better for the Jets in Foxborough.
New England As A Favorite
Since 2024 the Patriots are 22-15-2 against the spread, 10-3 as favorites and 7-2 as home favorites. They've won the last three meetings with the Jets, and last year they covered easily as big home favorites in this matchup.
The Pick
Patriots -7.On Kalshi, the Patriots winning by 7+ costs about 54¢.
Some books still have 7.5; seven is out there, so shop for it.
Ask the Sims your own question about this game → Free, as many as you want, no login.
Injury Report
- A.J. Brown (NE). On injured reserve (ankle) with his 21-day practice window opened. Reports say he could return this week.
- TreVeyon Henderson (NE). Listed doubtful (ankle). Christian Gonzalez is questionable (shoulder).
- New York. Breece Hall (quad) and Kenyon Sadiq (concussion) are questionable.
My picks for the rest of Week 6 are in NFL Week 6 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero photo: Tennessee Titans via Wikimedia Commons (Drake Maye Patriots vs Titans NOV2024.png), CC BY 3.0; cropped and toned.
More on this: Browns vs Jets Picks: The Number Feels Fishy · Raiders vs Patriots Picks: Built To Force Turnovers · Jets vs Bears Same Game Parlay: Bears Win, Allen Under 70 · Campbell Against His Old Coordinator: Jets vs Lions Picks · The More Complete Team: Patriots vs Jaguars Picks
