TL;DR
The panel's top of the board: Oklahoma City (22%), Philadelphia (18%), Miami (15%) (ties shown at equal blends in the table). Every verdict below was made price-blind, and every one gets graded against the real settlement on our scoreboard.
The week's biggest basketball news is priced in: LeBron James is a 76er, and Kalshi's 2027 championship board has Philadelphia at 12 cents behind San Antonio and Oklahoma City. Every model scored every team with its complete current roster in hand, fetched from ESPN at generation time, so the panel is reasoning about the actual post-decision league, not last season's. The bracket also splits into two conference races run under the same protocol, the Eastern Conference board and the Western Conference board.
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What The Models Were Given
Each model saw every team's complete current roster (fetched at generation time), so verdicts reflect the real post-free-agency league. A roster note: these cards are why the panel knows LeBron is in Philadelphia and who actually surrounds him there. Eight model seats were asked on every outcome; where a seat's verdict did not return, its table cell shows an em dash and the blend averages the seats that answered. The cent prices quoted throughout read as implied probabilities, a mechanic our guide to betting NBA on Kalshi walks through in full.
Where The Machines Split From The Money
San Antonio: market 22¢, AI blend 11% (11 points below the crowd). Claude Fable: "Wembanyama-Fox core is ascending but young and unproven in playoffs; contender-tier longshot in a deep field."
Miami: market 4¢, AI blend 15% (11 points above the crowd). DeepSeek V4: "Miami's roster features Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo, forming a dominant frontcourt that makes them strong title favorites."
Houston: market 2¢, AI blend 10% (8 points above the crowd). Gemini 3.1 Pro: "The addition of Kevin Durant alongside rising star Alperen Sengun and elite depth makes Houston a strong title contender."
Denver: market 4¢, AI blend 12% (8 points above the crowd). Claude Sonnet: "Jokic-led Nuggets remain a top contender in a deep West field, but so are several other title-caliber teams."
The Full Board
| Outcome | Kalshi | AI blend | ChatGPT (GPT-5.5) | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | Gemini 3.1 Pro | GLM 5.2 | Kimi K3 | DeepSeek V4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City | 21¢ | 22% | 18% | 32% | 34% | 17% | 15% | 16% | 28% | 12% |
| Philadelphia | 12¢ | 18% | 16% | 13% | 10% | 15% | 35% | 15% | 18% | 22% |
| Miami | 4¢ | 15% | 14% | 13% | 8% | 14% | 15% | 13% | 15% | 28% |
| Denver | 4¢ | 12% | 13% | 13% | 10% | 16% | 12% | 7% | 13% | 12% |
| San Antonio | 22¢ | 11% | 8% | 6% | 10% | 6% | 14% | 15% | 16% | 12% |
| Houston | 2¢ | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 7% | 15% | 9% | 8% | 12% |
| New York | 8¢ | 9% | 8% | — | 7% | 7% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 10% |
| Portland | 1¢ | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1.2% | 9% | 12% | 4% | 4% | 33% |
| Cleveland | 2¢ | 9% | 8% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 4% | 7% | 10% | 12% |
| Minnesota | 4¢ | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 9% | 8% | 12% | 7% | 9% |
| Los Angeles L | 3¢ | 7% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 5% | 6% |
| Orlando | 1¢ | 6% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 12% |
| Washington | 1¢ | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 12% | 10% | 6% | 5% | 1.2% |
| Boston | 6¢ | 5% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 7% | 4% | 9% | 5% | 2% |
| Golden State | 2¢ | 5% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 11% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 3% |
| Indiana | 2¢ | 4% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 1.5% | 5% | 5% | 2% |
| Dallas | 1¢ | 4% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 7% | 0.8% | 6% | 2% | 4% |
| Detroit | 4¢ | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 0.1% | 1.5% | 4% | 0.8% |
| Los Angeles C | 1¢ | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1.2% | 3% | 0.1% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Phoenix | 1¢ | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2% | 2% |
| Toronto | 4¢ | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2% | 0.8% | 3% | 1.1% | 3% | 0.7% | 1.8% |
| Sacramento | 1¢ | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 5% | 0.2% | 2% | 0.5% | 1.2% |
| Utah | 1¢ | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.3% |
| New Orleans | 1¢ | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 1.5% |
| Atlanta | 1¢ | 0.9% | 0.4% | 2% | 1.5% | 2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Memphis | 1¢ | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 2% | 0.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 1.2% |
| Milwaukee | 1¢ | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 2% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Chicago | 1¢ | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Charlotte | 1¢ | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Brooklyn | 1¢ | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements — records to date: GPT 83% on 1,693 graded calls · Claude Fable 85% on 331 graded calls · Claude Opus 86% on 382 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 84% on 363 graded calls · Gemini 85% on 1,718 graded calls · GLM 80% on 1,874 graded calls · Kimi 84% on 1,863 graded calls · DeepSeek 80% on 1,877 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
Model estimates generated July 26, 2026, price-blind. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or trading advice. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange; 18+, availability varies by state.
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