TL;DR
Kalshi already prices all 32 teams for the 2027 Stanley Cup, ten weeks before puck drop. The panel's top three: Colorado Avalanche (11%), Dallas Stars (10%), Florida Panthers (9%). Every model scored every team price-blind, and — new for this board — each verdict was grounded in a live data card: the team's final 2025-26 record plus its complete current 2026-27 roster and official transactions, fetched at generation time from the NHL and ESPN.
Hockey's offseason moves matter more than most sports because the field is so flat: the gap between the Cup favorite and the tenth choice is a few cents. That flatness is exactly where reasoning about roster changes, coaching moves, and aging curves might earn its keep against the crowd, and exactly where hallucinated facts would poison it. So the models were not asked to remember the offseason; they were handed it, dated and sourced, and told the card overrides anything they think they know.
The Offseason The Models Saw
A sample of the official transactions and roster facts that shaped the top of the board (the full card per team also carried the complete current roster):
Colorado Avalanche (55-16-11, 121 points last season): Signed C Georgii Merkulov to a one-year contract (2026-07-20); Signed D Christian Wolanin to a one-year contract (2026-07-05).
Dallas Stars (50-20-12, 112 points last season): Signed F Jason Robertson to a one-year contract (2026-07-21); Signed D Kyle Burroughs to a one-year contract (2026-07-06).
Florida Panthers (40-38-4, 84 points last season): Signed G Akira Schmid to a two-year contract (2026-07-24); Signed D Mikulas Hovorka to a one-year contract (2026-07-21).
Carolina Hurricanes (53-22-7, 113 points last season): Signed D Ronan Seeley to a one-year, two-way contract (2026-07-23); Signed D William Håkansson to a three-year contract (2026-07-15).
Minnesota Wild (46-24-12, 104 points last season): Signed G Filip Ruzicka to a three-year, entry-level contract (2026-07-14); Signed D Filip Ruzicka to a three-year contract (2026-07-13).
Vegas Golden Knights (39-26-17, 95 points last season): Signed D Juho Piiparinen to a three-year, entry-level contract (2026-07-15); Signed D Lukas Cormier to a one-year contract (2026-07-06).
Where The Machines Split From The Money
Dallas Stars: market 5¢, AI blend 10% (5 points above the crowd). Gemini 3.1 Pro: "The addition of superstar Mikko Rantanen to an elite 112-point core with Jake Oettinger in net makes Dallas a top championship favorite."
Minnesota Wild: market 5¢, AI blend 8% (3 points above the crowd). DeepSeek V4: "With 104 points last season and the addition of elite defenseman Quinn Hughes, the Wild are a top contender, but the Cup remains highly competitive."
Boston Bruins: market 2¢, AI blend 5% (3 points above the crowd). Claude Sonnet: "Bruins are a strong, retooled roster but one of 32 teams; Cup odds are inherently long."
Florida Panthers: market 12¢, AI blend 9% (3 points below the crowd). Claude Sonnet: "Talented core retained but mediocre 84-point season signals decline; ~1-in-20 shot in 32-team field."
The Full Board: 32 Teams, Eight Models
| Team | Kalshi | AI blend | ChatGPT (GPT-5.5) | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | Gemini 3.1 Pro | GLM 5.2 | Kimi K3 | DeepSeek V4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Avalanche | 9¢ | 11% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 16% | 8% | 13% | 11% | 9% |
| Dallas Stars | 5¢ | 10% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 12% |
| Florida Panthers | 12¢ | 9% | 8% | 6% | 7% | 5% | 15% | 14% | 8% | 10% |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 11¢ | 9% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 10% |
| Minnesota Wild | 5¢ | 8% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 12% |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 9¢ | 8% | 8% | 5% | 6% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 8¢ | 7% | 8% | 7% | 4% | 6% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 7% |
| Edmonton Oilers | 7¢ | 7% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 8% | 2% |
| Montréal Canadiens | 5¢ | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 4% | 7% | 6% |
| Boston Bruins | 2¢ | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 8% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 4% |
| Buffalo Sabres | 4¢ | 4% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 2% |
| Washington Capitals | 5¢ | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 8% | 4% | 4% |
| Ottawa Senators | 3¢ | 4% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 4% |
| Los Angeles Kings | 3¢ | 3% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 2% |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 2¢ | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 2% |
| New Jersey Devils | 4¢ | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 4% |
| Utah Mammoth | 3¢ | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 1.5% |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 4¢ | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 0.8% |
| Detroit Red Wings | 1¢ | 2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
| New York Rangers | 3¢ | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 3¢ | 2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 3% | 1.5% | 4% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| St. Louis Blues | 2¢ | 2.0% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1.2% | 1.0% |
| New York Islanders | 2¢ | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1.5% |
| Winnipeg Jets | 2¢ | 1.9% | 2% | 1.5% | 2% | 4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 2¢ | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2% | 1.5% | 4% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Nashville Predators | 1¢ | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1.0% | 1.5% |
| Anaheim Ducks | 4¢ | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2% | 4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| San Jose Sharks | 4¢ | 1.7% | 2% | 1.5% | 2% | 1.0% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 0.5% |
| Seattle Kraken | 1¢ | 1.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2% | 0.8% | 2% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 1¢ | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Calgary Flames | 1¢ | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Vancouver Canucks | 1¢ | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Model estimates generated July 25, 2026, price-blind. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or trading advice. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange; 18+, availability varies by state.
Related Verdicts
FAQ
What data did the models actually see?
Each model saw every team's final 2025-26 record, its complete current 2026-27 roster, and official transactions fetched at generation time from the NHL and ESPN, but no market prices.
Why does the board start ten weeks before the season?
Because the market already trades, and early boards are where reasoning has the most room to disagree with the crowd. Every verdict here gets graded when the market settles, win or lose, on our scoreboard.
Are model verdicts betting advice?
No. Model verdicts are model estimates, not betting or financial advice. Treat them as one input among many and make your own decisions.
