Thursday Night Football on a short week is the leftover pizza of the NFL schedule. And that is not an insult: I love leftover pizza. Some folks swear they're above it, everybody says they're going to bed early, and then you look at the clock and it's 11:40 PM and you're standing in front of an open fridge in your socks and boxers, holding a cold slice of pepperoni in one hand and refreshing a Kalshi order book for a quarterback rushing touchdown in the other. I have been that person in the socks more times than I'd like to admit, and I will be him again. Cold pizza is undefeated.
Anyways, the Patriots (4-2) head to Soldier Field to face the Bears (4-2), Chicago is laying 3, and the total sits at 50.5. I ran every touchdown contract in this game through Stokastic's Ask the Sims, which plays each game 10,000 times, snap by snap, with a final score and a full box score for every one. When I asked it for the best-value touchdown bets in this game, the first two Yes names on the list were Drake Maye and Luther Burden III, so that's the card. Let's break it down.
The Sims also hand you the game script. Chicago wins 5,515 of the 10,000 games, New England wins 4,386, and the default projection is Bears 27, Patriots 24. The nice part about this card is that the two plays want different endings: Maye scores more often when the Patriots win, Burden scores more often when the Bears win, so we're not betting the whole night on one script.
Play #1: The Quarterback Behind a Patchwork Line, 20¢ (+373 Effective)
Maye has 34 carries for 185 yards this season, 5.4 yards a pop, with 0.44 EPA per rush and a 50% success rate. Twenty of those 34 runs were scrambles, which is about one every 10 dropbacks, and he has three carries inside the 5, one of which went for a 3-yard touchdown in Week 5. Last season he ran 104 times for 452 yards and four scores, so the legs travel.
The matchup leans into the scrambling. New England's offensive line is a mess heading into a short week, with guard Alijah Vera-Tucker (hamstring) and lineman Ben Brown (knee) both ruled out and right tackle Morgan Moses (foot) questionable. Chicago's defense has 17 sacks on 192 dropbacks, so Maye is going to be moving whether he wants to or not. The Bears rank 18th in EPA per rush allowed, and opposing quarterbacks have 12 carries for 72 yards and two touchdowns against them, from Bryce Young and Jalen Hurts.
The risk is Rhamondre Stevenson, who has five of the Patriots' 11 carries inside the 10 and two of their four rushing touchdowns, so Maye's scores are more likely to come off a broken play than a called one. Maye was also on this week's injury report with a right shoulder issue, but he was removed from it Wednesday and is playing.
Ask the Sims has Maye scoring in 30.4% of its 10,000 games (3,041 of them, about +229), against a Kalshi price of 21.1¢ once you add the fee. That's an 8.1¢ edge, the biggest Yes edge on the touchdown board in this game. Split it by result and he scores in 36.7% of the 4,386 games New England wins, versus 25.2% when Chicago wins. The Sims also like him for two touchdowns at 4.5% against 3.2¢ on Kalshi, and his best pairing is a shootout: a Maye touchdown plus over 60.5 total points hit together 36% more often than their separate prices imply.
Kalshi's 20¢ works out to +373 after the fee, the best number out there, with DraftKings at +350, FanDuel and Caesars at +340 and BetMGM way back at +270. The catch is depth: only about 500 contracts sit at the 20¢ ask, so use a limit order and don't chase it to 22¢.
Play #2: The Receiver Who Doesn't Drop Anything, 33¢ (+189 Effective)
Burden caught all eight of his targets for 95 yards in Week 6, in Caleb Williams' first game back after missing Weeks 3 through 5. On the season he leads the Bears with 43 targets, a 22.2% target share, and he has 25.0% of the team's air yards for a 0.51 WOPR. He's at 31 catches for 361 yards and a touchdown, a 72% catch rate, a 53% success rate and a modest 8.4-yard aDOT, so he's doing his damage underneath and after the catch, with 158 yards after the catch.
The red-zone usage is what makes this a touchdown play and not just a catches play. Burden has nine red-zone targets, tied with Colston Loveland for the team lead out of Chicago's 34, three end-zone targets, and the Bears have handed him seven carries on top of that.
The matchup is about as friendly as it gets. New England has ruled out three cornerbacks, Carlton Davis III (neck), Channing Canada (hamstring) and Karon Prunty (hamstring), and both starting safeties, Kevin Byard III (chest) and Craig Woodson (shoulder), are questionable. The Patriots rank 18th in EPA per dropback allowed, and on short throws over the middle, where 15 of Burden's 43 targets have gone, they've given up 0.37 EPA per attempt, fourth-worst in the league in a small sample.
The risk is snaps. Burden played only 39% of Chicago's offensive snaps in Week 6 while Rome Odunze played 96%, and his snap share has bounced between 56% and 77% all year. He's been efficient enough to force more, but if Chicago keeps him in a rotational role or goes up early and pounds the rock, there are fewer chances to go around.
The Sims have Burden scoring in 40.0% of their games (3,998 of 10,000, about +150), against a Kalshi price of 34.5¢ with the fee, a 3.9¢ edge. In the 5,515 games Chicago wins, he scores 45.1% of the time, versus 33.5% in New England wins. The Sims like his two-touchdown contract even more on a per-dollar basis, at 8.3% against 6.4¢ on Kalshi, which is the riskier ticket. And his best pairing is his quarterback having a big night: a Burden touchdown plus Caleb Williams throwing three or more touchdowns hit together 53% more often than their prices imply.
Kalshi's 33¢ works out to +189 after the fee, with DraftKings and FanDuel a hair better at +190, Caesars at +184 and BetMGM at +160. If you have the books, take the +190; if you're on Kalshi, it's essentially the same price, and there are about 110,000 contracts sitting at 33¢.
Three Combos the Sims Like
None of these are on the official card, but if you like building Kalshi combos, here's what the Sims would put together from these same legs. The Sims column is how often the combo hit across the 10,000 games, and the expected Kalshi column is the Sims' estimate of what Kalshi's market makers will quote for it:
| Combo | Sims | Expected Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Maye TD + Burden TD | 12.5¢ | 6.8¢ |
| Maye TD + Patriots win | 16.5¢ | 9.8¢ |
| Burden TD + Caleb Williams 3+ passing TDs | 14.6¢ | 12.3¢ |
The first one is my favorite. Both of tonight's plays hit together in 1,254 of the 10,000 games, and the expected quote is barely more than half of that, which is the most cushion of the three. Combo quotes move around more than single contracts do, so check the live price in Kalshi's builder before you buy, and pass if it's above the Sims number.
The Fee Math
Always a reminder for the fine folks newer to playing on Kalshi: they charge a taker fee of 7% of price times one-minus-price, rounded to the cent. In plain English, for Maye's 20¢ you're adding on 1.12¢, so you're really paying 21.12¢. On Burden's 33¢ it's 1.55¢, so 34.55¢. Kalshi rounds up at settlement, so treat every effective number here as a ceiling and not a floor.
Also, these are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. And just like at a sportsbook, this is a constantly moving market, so all prices are subject to change. Check actives and inactives 90 minutes before kickoff (especially Morgan Moses and the Patriots' safeties), make sure you're getting the best price possible, and enjoy the show.
The Official Card
Both contracts sit on the Patriots at Bears touchdown tab on Kalshi. Prices are accurate as of Thursday, October 22, 2026, 12:30 PM ET. The effective column accounts for the taker fee, and the Sims column is the scoring probability from Ask the Sims:
| Contract | Price | After fee | Effective | Sims | Best book | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye Yes 1+ TD | 20¢ | 21.12¢ | +373 | 30.4% | +350 (DraftKings) | 0.5u |
| Luther Burden III Yes 1+ TD | 33¢ | 34.55¢ | +189 | 40.0% | +190 (DraftKings, FanDuel) | 0.35u |
Maye gets the bigger stake because his edge is more than twice the size of Burden's. Burden's market is the deep one, with about 7,700 traded and about 110,000 sitting at the ask. Maye's has traded about 17,700, but only about 500 are sitting at 20¢, so be patient with your order.
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Final Thoughts
One quarterback who's going to be running for his life behind a banged-up line, and one receiver who hasn't met a target he didn't catch, going up against a secondary that's down three corners. Maye's ticket misses about seven times out of 10 and Burden's about six, so size them like it.
As always: no chasing, and no hero sizing on a Thursday. Trade smart, trade responsibly, and enjoy the leftover pizza.
— Lindy
More on this: Thursday Night Football Picks: Maye Completes 22 · Patriots vs Bears Anytime TD Picks: Maye At 20 Cents · Thursday Night Football Picks: Surtain Out, Darnold Throws · Jets vs Bears Same Game Parlay: Bears Win, Allen Under 70 · Patriots vs Seahawks Kalshi Player Props: Seattle Gives Up Catches, Not Yards
