Both teams are missing a big name, and I still think the Bears win this at home. It's a field-goal game in my head, and a same game parlay should be built for that score before any leg goes on it.
I typed my score into the free Kalshi Parlay Simulator, which builds three-leg combos for the score you pick and prices them from 10,000 Stokastic Sims. Then I flipped it to a Jets win.
Chicago At Home
New York Jets (1-2) at Chicago Bears (2-1) Sunday, October 4 · 1:00 p.m. ET · Soldier Field · FOX Stokastic Sims: Bears win 58%
Caleb Williams is out for Chicago. For the Jets, Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell are out and Kenyon Sadiq is questionable. With Hall out, Isaiah Davis is the Jets back on my top card.
Monangai Closes It
| Leg | Side | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| NYJ wins by 4+ | NO | 75¢ (-300) |
| Isaiah Davis 30+ rushing yards | NO | 67¢ (-203) |
| Kyle Monangai 30+ rushing yards | YES | 66¢ (-194) |
| Sims price | Kalshi legs | Near CHI 23-20 |
|---|---|---|
| 38.0¢ (+163) | 33.2¢ (+202) | 47% |
These legs move together because the games where Chicago's back gets his carries and the Jets' ground game stalls aren't games the Jets win going away. It doesn't even need a Bears win, only no Jets win by four or more.
The Jets Hang Around
| Leg | Side | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| CHI wins by 6+ | NO | 57¢ (-133) |
| Over 48.5 total points | NO | 67¢ (-203) |
| D'Andre Swift 80+ rushing yards | NO | 68¢ (-213) |
| Sims price | Kalshi legs | Near NYJ 23-20 |
|---|---|---|
| 31.6¢ (+216) | 26.0¢ (+285) | 72% |
This card doesn't need the Jets to win, just a low-scoring game where Chicago doesn't pull away and Swift stays short of 80, and those three things tend to happen in the same games.
Build It Yourself
- Open NYJ @ CHI in the Kalshi Parlay Simulator.
- Type your final score into Pick Your Game Script.
- Set legs to 3 and read the cards. Play the ones where the Sims Price is above the Kalshi number, skip any where the Kalshi number is higher, and check Current Script for how often it hits if your score is right.
My Two Tickets
- Bears 23-20 (38.0¢ sims): NO on NYJ wins by 4+, NO on Isaiah Davis 30+ rushing yards, YES on Kyle Monangai 30+ rushing yards.
- Jets 23-20 (31.6¢ sims): NO on CHI wins by 6+, NO on Over 48.5 total points, NO on D'Andre Swift 80+ rushing yards.
Prices are from 8 a.m. ET on game day and move until kickoff. The simulator is free, so type your own Jets-Bears score and see what it builds.
Stokastic Sims are estimates, not guarantees.
More on this: Broncos vs 49ers Same Game Parlay: Bo Nix Under 250 · Cardinals vs Giants Same Game Parlay: Winston Under 2 TDs · Chargers vs Seahawks Same Game Parlay: Darnold Stays Quiet · Dolphins vs Vikings Same Game Parlay: Gordon Held Under 30 · Jaguars vs Bengals Same Game Parlay: Tuten Under 70
