Minnesota is unbeaten, Miami hasn't won yet, and everyone expects the Vikings to handle it. I agree they win. I just don't think it's pretty, and I don't think Miami's offense does much on the ground.
So I picked the score first and built the parlay second. I typed a Vikings win into the free Kalshi Parlay Simulator, then a Miami upset, and kept the top three-leg combo for each.
Minnesota Grinds It Out
Miami Dolphins (0-3) at Minnesota Vikings (3-0) Sunday, October 4 · 4:05 p.m. ET · U.S. Bank Stadium · FOX Stokastic Sims: Vikings win 76%
Justin Jefferson is out for Minnesota, and Caleb Douglas is out for Miami. My read is a Vikings win by double digits that stays low-scoring.
Miami's Run Stalls
| Leg | Side | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Over 44.5 total points | NO | 70¢ (-233) |
| MIN wins by 4+ | YES | 74¢ (-285) |
| Ollie Gordon II 30+ rushing yards | NO | 60¢ (-150) |
| Sims price | Kalshi legs | Near MIN 24-14 |
|---|---|---|
| 33.9¢ (+195) | 31.1¢ (+222) | 66% |
These legs move together because a Miami offense that can't get Gordon to 30 isn't scoring much, so the total stays down while Minnesota builds its lead.
The second card for this score is the close call: 32.0¢ (+212) in the sims against 31.9¢ (+214) bought leg by leg. That's a wash, and if the Kalshi number moves above the sims price before kickoff, it's a skip.
Miami Steals One
| Leg | Side | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| MIN wins by 7+ | NO | 38¢ (+163) |
| Jaylen Wright 20+ rushing yards | YES | 67¢ (-203) |
| Aaron Jones 90+ rushing yards | NO | 74¢ (-285) |
| Sims price | Kalshi legs | Near MIA 21-19 |
|---|---|---|
| 26.9¢ (+272) | 18.8¢ (+431) | 64% |
This one doesn't need Miami to win. Wright gets his yards, Jones stays short of a big day, and Minnesota can't build a touchdown lead. It also cashes in a close Vikings win, which is why I like it.
Build It Yourself
- Open MIA @ MIN in the Kalshi Parlay Simulator.
- Type your final score into Pick Your Game Script.
- Set legs to 3 and read the cards. The yellow Sims Price is how often the whole combo hit in 10,000 sims. Kalshi is the three legs bought one at a time, multiplied. Current Script is how often it hit in sims that finished near your score. When the Kalshi number is higher than the sims price, skip that ticket.
My Two Tickets
- Vikings 24-14 (33.9¢ sims): NO on Over 44.5 total points, YES on MIN wins by 4+, NO on Ollie Gordon II 30+ rushing yards.
- Dolphins 21-19 (26.9¢ sims): NO on MIN wins by 7+, YES on Jaylen Wright 20+ rushing yards, NO on Aaron Jones 90+ rushing yards.
Prices are from 8 a.m. ET on game day and move until kickoff. If your score isn't mine, type it into the simulator. It's free and it rebuilds the combos for whatever you pick.
Stokastic Sims are estimates, not guarantees.
More on this: Broncos vs 49ers Same Game Parlay: Bo Nix Under 250 · Cardinals vs Giants Same Game Parlay: Winston Under 2 TDs · Chargers vs Seahawks Same Game Parlay: Darnold Stays Quiet · Jaguars vs Bengals Same Game Parlay: Tuten Under 70 · Jets vs Bears Same Game Parlay: Monangai Runs For 30
