Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026.
Blame the rain and the wind for a 9-3 game if you want. It is still a Bears team that scored 59 points in Week 1, whose coach said he wanted the highest-scoring offense in history, held to three. Brian Flores makes anybody look unprepared. I have a lot of faith in that defense and zero faith in Tampa Bay right now. Vikings -1.5.
Kickoff: Sunday, September 27, 4:05 PM ET, Raymond James Stadium
The Game Lines
Kalshi in cents, bid and ask. Sportsbook column is the consensus line.
| Line | Kalshi | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread: Vikings Win By 2 Or More | 48-49¢ | Vikings −1.5 |
| Total: Over 42.5 Points | 49-50¢ | 42.5 |
| Moneyline: Vikings Win | 52-53¢ | Vikings -120 / Buccaneers +100 |
Minnesota is a 1.5-point road favorite. On Kalshi, the Vikings winning by two or more is 48 to 49 cents, and Minnesota to win outright is 52 to 53 cents, about -110, with Tampa at 46 to 47. The over at 42.5 is 49 to 50 cents. Minnesota has covered seven straight going back to last season; Tampa Bay has failed to cover eleven straight.
Where The Edges Are
| Matchup | Vikings | Buccaneers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings run game vs Buccaneers run D | 11th | 11th | even |
| Vikings passing game vs Buccaneers pass D | 13th | 19th | Vikings O |
| Vikings pass protection vs Buccaneers pass rush | 27th | 23rd | even |
| Vikings explosive plays vs Buccaneers big-play D | 25th | 10th | Buccaneers D, clearly |
| Buccaneers run game vs Vikings run D | 3rd | 5th | even |
| Buccaneers passing game vs Vikings pass D | 12th | 30th | Vikings D, clearly |
| Buccaneers pass protection vs Vikings pass rush | 1st | 20th | Vikings D, clearly |
| Buccaneers explosive plays vs Vikings big-play D | 25th | 19th | Buccaneers O |
Ranks out of 32 through Week 2 of 2026, nflverse play-by-play. Run game = EPA per carry, passing = EPA per dropback, protection = sacks-plus-hits rate against pressure rate, explosive = rate of completions of 20-plus. O = that offense has the edge, D = the defense does.
Vikings, best: rushing yards (10th), rushing efficiency (11th), success rate allowed (1st). Worst: passing yards (32nd), success rate (28th), pass defense yards (28th).
Buccaneers, best: rushing efficiency (5th), ypc (6th), run defense yards (5th). Worst: passing efficiency (30th), offense overall (28th), pass rush (27th).
Seventy-Seven Percent
Minnesota won 9-3 in Chicago as a 4.5-point underdog. The defense sent five or more rushers on 77% of dropbacks, the highest rate in the league by a mile, and got four sacks and ten hits on Caleb Williams and Tyson Bagent with two takeaways. Chicago had a 32% success rate and went 3 of 13 on third down. Minnesota allows minus-0.15 EPA per play for the season. And it is not as if Williams missed the whole game, or as if Bagent is the worst backup in the league; he is not.
The offense did almost nothing: 33% success, 3 of 13 on third down, Carson Wentz 11 of 20 for 143 with a completion rate eight points under expected. Aaron Jones carried it, 23 for 105. Kyler Murray is expected to start this week, at least that is what they are saying; Jones (knee) is questionable. It is Justin Jefferson and it is Flores's defense, and that is all I need.
Baker Looks Lost
Tampa Bay lost 19-23 at home to Cleveland as an 8.5-point favorite, 0-2 against the spread. Baker Mayfield was 21 of 34 for 182 with a pick, 2 of 10 on throws of 20-plus air yards at a 12.4-yard average depth, the most aggressive and least accurate line on the slate. Bucky Irving ran 17 for 89. The defense held Cleveland to 2.2 a carry, sent five-plus rushers 49% of the time, and gave up a 55-yarder to Denzel Boston. Both Tampa games have gone over.
It pains me because I am a big Mayfield fan, but he looks lost, he just got paid, and this team is trash right now: outright losses to Cleveland at home and to Cincinnati with four turnovers, all fumbles. How is Todd Bowles still the coach? I like the man. The team is a 1.5-point home dog to a team whose quarterback threw for 143 yards, and the market is right about which defense is the best unit on the field.
The Pick
Vikings -1.5.On Kalshi, that is Minnesota winning by two or more, 48 to 49 cents.
Jefferson and the defense. If Murray starts, the offense has a ceiling it did not have with Wentz.
Injury Report
- Kyler Murray (MIN). Concussion protocol; expected to start per the team. Wentz if not.
- Aaron Jones (MIN). Knee, questionable after 23 carries for 105. Jordan Mason is on injured reserve.
- Mayfield against the blitz. 2 of 10 deep against Cleveland; Minnesota sends five-plus 77% of the time. Six sacks or a 50-yard touchdown, and his average depth says he takes the shot.
- Weather. Low 80s, calm, dry in Tampa.
My picks for the rest of Week 3 are in NFL Week 3 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero photo: All-Pro Reels via Wikimedia Commons (Jefferson 2022.jpg), licensed CC BY-SA 2.0; cropped and toned.
