Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday night, September 23. Thursday night's Falcons at Packers pick is a lean on the Falcons at +5.5.
Nine underdogs on a sixteen-game board, which is not a philosophy, it is what the numbers gave me this week. My read on all sixteen games, in the order I recorded them. Tell me where I'm wrong before kickoff, not on Tuesday.
| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi to win | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons at Packers | Thu 8:15 PM | Packers 71¢ | Packers −5.5 | 43.5 |
| Chargers at Bills | Sun 1:00 PM | Bills 76¢ | Bills −7 | 50.5 |
| Patriots at Jaguars | Sun 1:00 PM | Jaguars 60¢ | Jaguars −3 | 45.5 |
| Seahawks at Commanders | Sun 1:00 PM | Seahawks 75¢ | Seahawks −7 | 40.5 |
| Titans at Giants | Sun 1:00 PM | Giants 58¢ | Giants −2.5 | 39.5 |
| Bengals at Steelers | Sun 1:00 PM | Bengals 64¢ | Bengals −3.5 | 42.5 |
| Panthers at Browns | Sun 1:00 PM | Panthers 59¢ | Panthers −2.5 | 42.5 |
| Jets at Lions | Sun 1:00 PM | Lions 73¢ | Lions −6.5 | 47.5 |
| Chiefs at Dolphins | Sun 1:00 PM | Chiefs 86¢ | Chiefs −11.5 | 46.5 |
| Texans at Colts | Sun 1:00 PM | Texans 59¢ | Texans −3 | 42.5 |
| Cardinals at 49ers | Sun 4:05 PM | 49ers 79¢ | 49ers −8.5 | 47.5 |
| Vikings at Buccaneers | Sun 4:05 PM | Vikings 53¢ | Vikings −1.5 | 42.5 |
| Raiders at Saints | Sun 4:25 PM | Saints 61¢ | Saints −3 | 44.5 |
| Ravens at Cowboys | Sun 4:25 PM | Ravens 62¢ | Ravens −3.5 | 52.5 |
| Rams at Broncos | Sun 8:20 PM | Rams 56¢ | Rams −2.5 | 45.5 |
| Eagles at Bears | Mon 8:15 PM | Eagles 69¢ | Eagles −4.5 | 41.5 |
Falcons at Packers, Thursday 8:15 PM ET
This opened at seven and the Packers are laying 5.5 at home to a team that lost 34-3 in its own building four days ago. Both teams are on a short week, Green Bay played an extra period on Sunday, and neither offense converted a third of its third downs last week. It is a disgusting game, and there is a lean in it: Falcons +5.5. The full breakdown is here.
Chargers at Bills, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
The Chargers are the second team in NFL history to lose back-to-back home games by double digits, as double-digit favorites on the opening line, to teams that had losing records the year before. Josh Allen is putting up historic numbers on the other side. Nobody likes the Chargers, and that is not the reason to take them. The reason is that this is their season, right now, in Week 3, and I am sprinkling on the points: Chargers +7. The full breakdown is here.
Patriots at Jaguars, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
I had the Jaguars last week and lost, and they had every out: a 13-3 lead in Denver, control of the game, and then 17 unanswered. I still think this is the more complete team of the two, and now it is laying inside a field goal at home. Jaguars -3. The full breakdown is here.
Seahawks at Commanders, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Jayden Daniels went down again, on the same elbow, and Marcus Mariota is not the kind of quarterback who produces the numbers you need against a good defense. Seattle's is not good, it is dominant. Inside a touchdown, I'm going Seattle. Seahawks -7. The full breakdown is here.
Titans at Giants, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
The Giants are 2.5-point favorites at home, and it feels like a carrot being dangled. It is inside a field goal and I cannot do it, for two reasons: what Jeffery Simmons did to Philadelphia's line last week, and who is playing quarterback for New York. Titans moneyline, 43 cents on Kalshi. The full breakdown is here.
Bengals at Steelers, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Most people are going to be all over the Bengals, and I do not blame you. Joe Burrow has been fine, not great; it is Ja'Marr Chase in the end zone that is winning games. Pittsburgh's offense is in trouble. But it is a 1-1 team at home in the division as a 3.5-point dog, and I will begrudgingly take the Steelers +3.5. The full breakdown is here.
Panthers at Browns, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
You guys know I love taking Cleveland at home. Usually we are taking Cleveland at home at plus eight. This is plus two and a half, against a quarterback who looks too good right now, and I am laying the points: Panthers -2.5. The full breakdown is here.
Jets at Lions, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
I will keep this simple. The Lions' defense looks awful right now and the offense has scored 31 in back-to-back games. The Jets should have beaten Green Bay and did not, and the reason was not the players. It was the head coach. Lions -6.5. The full breakdown is here.
Chiefs at Dolphins, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
I am not going to spend a lot of time on this. The Dolphins are the worst team in football. Kalshi has them at 42 cents to finish with the worst record in the league, two weeks into the season. They cannot move the ball, and last week I wondered whether they could backdoor games; now I fear they are too bad to backdoor anything. Lean Chiefs -11.5, and I am not betting it. The full breakdown is here.
Texans at Colts, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Both teams are 0-2 and desperate. The Colts had every chance to win in Kansas City and took it to overtime; the Texans lost at home to Cincinnati without Nico Collins, and it looks like they will not have him again. You are giving me a divisional home dog at +3 with the other side's alpha receiver more than likely out. Colts +3. The full breakdown is here.
Cardinals at 49ers, Sunday 4:05 PM ET
Do I think San Francisco wins? Sure. But 8.5 points is a lot in a division game, even on the road, the 49ers keep racking up injuries, and I like teams coming off embarrassing losses. The backdoor is open. Cardinals +8.5. The full breakdown is here.
Vikings at Buccaneers, Sunday 4:05 PM ET
Blame the rain and the wind for a 9-3 game if you want. It is still a Bears team that scored 59 points in Week 1, whose coach said he wanted the highest-scoring offense in history, held to three. Brian Flores makes anybody look unprepared. I have a lot of faith in that defense and zero faith in Tampa Bay right now. Vikings -1.5. The full breakdown is here.
Raiders at Saints, Sunday 4:25 PM ET
Are the Raiders actually good? Let's say competent. I think the answer may be yes, and the Saints are coming off a massive emotional win in Baltimore. You know this about me: I love taking the other side of that. Classic letdown spot for Kellen Moore's team. Raiders +3. The full breakdown is here.
Ravens at Cowboys, Sunday 4:25 PM ET (Rio de Janeiro)
Dallas is the home team on paper, but it is a neutral field in Rio, the first NFL game there, with record rain in the area this month and league officials saying they are not concerned about the field, which is what they would say. What I have right now is that Zay Flowers did not practice Wednesday, a Dallas defense that stinks, and a 52.5 total. Cowboys +3.5. The full breakdown is here.
Rams at Broncos, Sunday 8:20 PM ET
The Rams ran all over the Giants without Jaxson Dart on the other side, and Puka Nacua is expected back this week. Denver had a nice come-from-behind win over Jacksonville after getting smoked by the Chiefs. My concern is that Bo Nix and the run game cannot keep up with a team that scores like this. Lean Rams -2.5, inside a field goal, and I do not love it. The full breakdown is here.
Eagles at Bears, Monday 8:15 PM ET
Eagles -4.5 is going to be popular. Caleb Williams is probably out, although a hamstring you thought would cost him a month may cost him a week; Tyson Bagent is in the concussion protocol; it might be Case Keenum. Everyone wants Philadelphia. So why is the number only 4.5? Anyone? I will close the week, unbelievably, at home in Chicago, saying Bears +4.5. The full breakdown is here.
Lines move. Check the number at your book before you bet, and the Kalshi price before you buy.
Hero photo: WuTang94 via Wikimedia Commons (Josh-Allen-TD-celly-2025.jpg), public domain (CC0); cropped and toned.
Nothing here is financial advice.
