Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026.
Dallas is the home team on paper, but it is a neutral field in Rio, the first NFL game there, with record rain in the area this month and league officials saying they are not concerned about the field, which is what they would say. What I have right now is that Zay Flowers did not practice Wednesday, a Dallas defense that stinks, and a 52.5 total. Cowboys +3.5.
Kickoff: Sunday, September 27, 4:25 PM ET, Maracanã Stadium, Rio de Janeiro
The Game Lines
Kalshi in cents, bid and ask. Sportsbook column is the consensus line.
| Line | Kalshi | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread: Ravens Win By 4 Or More | 47-48¢ | Ravens −3.5 |
| Total: Over 52.5 Points | 50-51¢ | 52.5 |
| Moneyline: Ravens Win | 61-62¢ | Ravens -175 / Cowboys +145 |
Baltimore is laying 3.5 on a neutral field. On Kalshi, the Ravens winning by four or more is 47 to 48 cents, and Baltimore to win outright is 61 to 62, about -160. The over at 52.5, the highest total on the slate, is 50 to 51 cents. Baltimore is 10-6 against the spread as a road favorite since 2024 and 8-5 off a loss; both Dallas games have gone over.
Where The Edges Are
| Matchup | Ravens | Cowboys | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens run game vs Cowboys run D | 4th | 27th | Ravens O, clearly |
| Ravens passing game vs Cowboys pass D | 10th | 30th | Ravens O, clearly |
| Ravens pass protection vs Cowboys pass rush | 9th | 25th | Ravens O, clearly |
| Ravens explosive plays vs Cowboys big-play D | 9th | 7th | even |
| Cowboys run game vs Ravens run D | 29th | 23rd | Cowboys O |
| Cowboys passing game vs Ravens pass D | 10th | 3rd | Cowboys O |
| Cowboys pass protection vs Ravens pass rush | 10th | 3rd | Cowboys O |
| Cowboys explosive plays vs Ravens big-play D | 19th | 27th | Ravens D |
Ranks out of 32 through Week 2 of 2026, nflverse play-by-play. Run game = EPA per carry, passing = EPA per dropback, protection = sacks-plus-hits rate against pressure rate, explosive = rate of completions of 20-plus. O = that offense has the edge, D = the defense does.
Ravens, best: ypa (1st), success rate (2nd), ypa allowed (7th). Worst: explosive runs (18th), passing efficiency (10th), run defense efficiency (29th).
Cowboys, best: offense overall (3rd), success rate (3rd), explosive passes allowed (7th). Worst: rushing yards (32nd), explosive runs (32nd), success rate allowed (32nd).
Without Flowers, Who Pulls Away
Baltimore lost 24-17 at home to New Orleans as an 8.5-point favorite, its second straight blown fourth-quarter lead. The offense was efficient, a 64% success rate and 4.9 a carry, but it only ran 55 plays and turned it over; Lamar Jackson was 21 of 30 for 235 with a pick, 2 of 5 deep with an interception, three sacks and five hits. Derrick Henry went 16 for 68 and a score and got five carries in the second half of a one-score game. Rashod Bateman caught 7 for 88 and a touchdown. The defense allowed five completions of 20-plus to Tyler Shough and forced zero turnovers.
Flowers (hamstring) did not practice Wednesday. If he is out, it neuters this offense. Henry moves the chains and gives you the breakaway run, but Mark Andrews is not that guy anymore and Bateman cannot lead an offense. They do not have the weapons to pull away from teams without Flowers.
Dak Just Broke Romo's Record, And The Defense Stinks
Dallas beat Washington 37-20 as a 3.5-point favorite. Dak Prescott was 26 of 31 for 279 and four touchdowns, a completion rate 18 points over expected and 3 of 4 deep, and passed Tony Romo for the franchise touchdown record. CeeDee Lamb caught 8 of 9 for 153 and two scores with four completions of 20-plus. The offense had a 56% success rate and used play-action on 39% of dropbacks; the run game averaged 3.1 a carry with a 29% stuff rate.
The defense allowed 5.7 a carry and a 51% success rate to a Marcus Mariota offense and got zero sacks and six hits. Dallas allows 0.22 EPA per play for the season. We know it stinks. It is also the reason this game shoots out, and in a shootout the team with Prescott, Lamb and George Pickens keeps up.
The Rio Part
The Cowboys fly Thursday night, practice at Flamengo's facility Friday, walk through Saturday, and fly straight back after the game to land Monday morning. Baltimore has the same trip. It is not a home game for Prescott, which matters because at home he dominates. Forecast at kickoff: high 90s, humid, 12% chance of rain, with the field condition the open question after the month Rio has had. Both quarterbacks are throwing on it.
The Pick
Cowboys +3.5.On Kalshi, that is the Ravens not winning by four or more, 52 to 53 cents.
You usually do not want the dog in a monster total. In this spot, with Flowers out, Dallas can win outright and nobody would be surprised.
Injury Report
- Zay Flowers (BAL). Hamstring, did not practice Wednesday. The whole read moves if he plays.
- Baltimore's pass rush. Three sacks and four hits on Shough. Prescott took two sacks and six hits from Washington.
- The field. First NFL game at the Maracanã after a record-rain month; the league says it is fine. Watch for the Friday practice reports.
- Heat. High 90s at kickoff, humid. Both teams play the second half in it; Henry is the one who benefits.
My picks for the rest of Week 3 are in NFL Week 3 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero photo: All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA via Wikimedia Commons (Lamar Jackson 2021.jpg), licensed CC BY-SA 2.0; cropped and toned.
