Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026.
Are the Raiders actually good? Let's say competent. I think the answer may be yes, and the Saints are coming off a massive emotional win in Baltimore. You know this about me: I love taking the other side of that. Classic letdown spot for Kellen Moore's team. Raiders +3.
Kickoff: Sunday, September 27, 4:25 PM ET, Caesars Superdome
The Game Lines
Kalshi in cents, bid and ask. Sportsbook column is the consensus line.
| Line | Kalshi | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread: Saints Win By 3 Or More | 56-57¢ | Saints −3 |
| Total: Over 44.5 Points | 47-48¢ | 44.5 |
| Moneyline: Saints Win | 60-61¢ | Saints -185 / Raiders +154 |
New Orleans is a 3-point favorite, its first time favored this season. On Kalshi, the Saints winning by three or more is 56 to 57 cents, and New Orleans to win outright is 60 to 61, about -150. The over at 44.5 is 47 to 48 cents. Las Vegas has covered three straight, New Orleans eight straight going back to last season.
Where The Edges Are
| Matchup | Raiders | Saints | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders run game vs Saints run D | 29th | 26th | even |
| Raiders passing game vs Saints pass D | 14th | 16th | even |
| Raiders pass protection vs Saints pass rush | 14th | 16th | even |
| Raiders explosive plays vs Saints big-play D | 18th | 6th | Saints D, clearly |
| Saints run game vs Raiders run D | 1st | 6th | Raiders D |
| Saints passing game vs Raiders pass D | 3rd | 15th | Raiders D, clearly |
| Saints pass protection vs Raiders pass rush | 2nd | 11th | Raiders D |
| Saints explosive plays vs Raiders big-play D | 20th | 6th | Saints O, clearly |
Ranks out of 32 through Week 2 of 2026, nflverse play-by-play. Run game = EPA per carry, passing = EPA per dropback, protection = sacks-plus-hits rate against pressure rate, explosive = rate of completions of 20-plus. O = that offense has the edge, D = the defense does.
Raiders, best: touchdowns (10th), scoring (11th), defense overall (1st). Worst: rushing efficiency (29th), ypc (27th), explosive passes allowed (20th).
Saints, best: passing yards (3rd), rushing efficiency (6th), explosive passes allowed (6th). Worst: explosive runs (29th), ypc (28th), success rate allowed (31st).
Crosby And Dean
Las Vegas won 26-14 in Los Angeles as a 6.5-point underdog, 2-0 against the spread. The defense won it: three takeaways, three sacks and eight hits on Justin Herbert, a 36% success rate allowed and 4.0 a carry. The Raiders allow minus-0.25 EPA per play for the season, second best in the league. You have Maxx Crosby, and you have Nakobe Dean; I am an Eagles fan and I know how good Dean is. Every time he hits you it looks like he was shot out of a cannon. He is not a fun guy to play against.
The offense is the question. Kirk Cousins was 19 of 29 for 253 and three touchdowns with a pick, 2 of 3 deep, nine hits and four drops; Tre Tucker caught 5 of 7 for 119 and a score at a 20-yard average depth. Ashton Jeanty ran 21 times for 48, 2.3 a carry as a team. Brock Bowers (meniscus) is questionable.
Was He In? Probably Not.
New Orleans won 24-17 in Baltimore as an 8.5-point underdog, its eighth straight cover. Tyler Shough was 27 of 34 for 252 with a completion rate 14 points over expected, 3 of 4 deep, five completions of 20-plus and a rushing touchdown. Chris Olave caught 8 for 86 and a score; I am a big Olave fan, I like Shough, and I love what Devaughn Vele is doing. The goal-line sneak, was he in? Probably not; once they ruled him in, it could not be overturned, and there was a facemask on the play too. Lamar Jackson's team without Zay Flowers lost at home as an 8.5-point favorite.
What the Saints do not have is a semblance of a run game: 2.5 a carry, Alvin Kamara 9 for 15. If you force this team to throw all game, eventually things unravel. The Raiders' defense is the kind that forces that. And the Saints are 2-0 only because Baltimore's kick did not go; they should be 1-1 after missing the two-point conversion against Detroit.
The Pick
Raiders +3.On Kalshi, that is the Saints not winning by three or more, 43 to 44 cents.
The letdown spot and a defense that took the ball away three times from Herbert. Neither team can run, so the total is Cousins and Shough throwing it 35 times each.
Injury Report
- Brock Bowers (LV). Meniscus, questionable. Tucker and Michael Mayer carry the targets if he sits.
- The Raiders' protection. Nine hits on Cousins from the Chargers. New Orleans got three sacks and five hits on Jackson.
- Alvin Kamara. 9 for 15 in Baltimore. Audric Estime (thigh) is questionable behind him.
- Dome. No weather. The total is a football question.
My picks for the rest of Week 3 are in NFL Week 3 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero photo: All-Pro Reels via Wikimedia Commons (2025 Raiders at Commanders 106.jpg), licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; cropped and toned.
