Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026.
This opened at seven and the Packers are laying 5.5 at home to a team that lost 34-3 in its own building four days ago. Both teams are on a short week, Green Bay played an extra period on Sunday, and neither offense converted a third of its third downs last week. It is a disgusting game, and there is a lean in it: Falcons +5.5.
Kickoff: Thursday, September 24, 8:15 PM ET, Lambeau Field, Prime Video
The Game Lines
Kalshi in cents, bid and ask. Sportsbook column is the consensus line.
| Line | Kalshi | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread: Packers Win By 6 Or More | 50-51¢ | Packers −5.5 |
| Total: Over 43.5 Points | 50-51¢ | 43.5 |
| Moneyline: Packers Win | 70-71¢ | Packers -258 / Falcons +210 |
The number came down a point and a half from the opener. On Kalshi, Green Bay winning by six or more is a coin flip at 50 to 51 cents, and the Packers to win outright is 70 to 71 cents, about -240, against +210 at the books for Atlanta. The over at 43.5 is 50 to 51 cents. Nothing here is priced with conviction, and that fits the two teams.
Where The Edges Are
| Matchup | Falcons | Packers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons run game vs Packers run D | 19th | 7th | Packers D, clearly |
| Falcons passing game vs Packers pass D | 32nd | 21st | Packers D |
| Falcons pass protection vs Packers pass rush | 24th | 9th | Packers D, clearly |
| Falcons explosive plays vs Packers big-play D | 29th | 4th | Packers D, clearly |
| Packers run game vs Falcons run D | 6th | 32nd | Falcons D, clearly |
| Packers passing game vs Falcons pass D | 14th | 22nd | Falcons D |
| Packers pass protection vs Falcons pass rush | 20th | 31st | Falcons D |
| Packers explosive plays vs Falcons big-play D | 18th | 8th | Packers O |
Ranks out of 32 through Week 2 of 2026, nflverse play-by-play. Run game = EPA per carry, passing = EPA per dropback, protection = sacks-plus-hits rate against pressure rate, explosive = rate of completions of 20-plus. O = that offense has the edge, D = the defense does.
Falcons, best: rushing yards (5th), ypc (13th), run defense yards (3rd). Worst: scoring (32nd), offense overall (32nd), pass rush (24th).
Packers, best: explosive passes (8th), passing yards (12th), ypc allowed (3rd). Worst: success rate (32nd), rushing efficiency (32nd), touchdowns allowed (26th).
The Worst Offensive Line In Football Lost Two More Starters
Green Bay beat the Jets 20-17 in overtime and did not cover as a 3.5-point favorite, its sixth straight non-cover going back to last season. The offense ran 50 plays, had a 32% success rate, went 1 of 9 on third down and averaged 3.5 yards a carry with a 17% stuff rate. Jordan Love was 16 of 29 for 145 yards, 0 for 2 on throws of 20-plus air yards, with a completion rate 14 points under expected and three drops. He had less than 100 passing yards going into the fourth quarter. Christian Watson saw 11 targets and caught four.
The line was already the problem. Green Bay is 31st of 32 in sacks-plus-hits per dropback through two weeks, and on Sunday it lost guard Aaron Banks (toe) and tackle Zach Bako-Bewele (knee, carted off); neither practiced Wednesday. Jayden Reed was stretchered off on the second play and has no return date. Josh Jacobs is out for personal reasons, which leaves MarShawn Lloyd, Kaleb Johnson and Chris Brooks in the backfield. The argument for Green Bay is that it was already rock bottom and backups cannot make it worse.
The defense won the game. The Jets ran for 2.5 yards a carry against a 30% stuff rate, Geno Smith took four sacks and eight hits, and Green Bay sent five or more rushers on 34% of dropbacks. That unit is why the Packers are still favored by more than a field goal.
Cooper Rush Should Not Be In The League
Atlanta lost 34-3 at home to Carolina as a 2.5-point favorite. Cooper Rush fumbled on the first play, threw two interceptions in 17 attempts with three interception-worthy throws, and was benched in the third quarter for Jack Strand, who threw a pick-six on his first NFL pass. Five turnovers. The offense had zero completions of 20-plus yards and went 4 of 13 on third down. Atlanta's offense is at minus-0.40 EPA per play through two games, last in the league.
The run game was not the problem. Bijan Robinson went 16 for 72 and the team averaged 4.9 a carry. It is not his fault, not Kyle Pitts' fault, not Drake London's fault. The defense gave up five completions of 20-plus, three of them to Tetairoa McMillan and a 55-yarder to Xavier Legette. Carolina is the team that coughed up 59 points the week before.
Michael Penix Jr. practiced in full Wednesday and starts Thursday, his first game since last November's knee injury. Tua Tagovailoa also practiced in full and could be active behind him. You cannot be worse than Atlanta was on Sunday, and Penix is a significant upgrade on the two quarterbacks who played.
The Short Week Cuts One Way
Both teams play Thursday off a Sunday game. Green Bay is at home, but it played an overtime period on Sunday and travels off a game in New Jersey; Atlanta played at home. The Falcons get a quarterback back and a coaching staff that spent the week answering for the worst performance of its season. Green Bay gets two new starters on the line and a receiver room without Reed.
If you could have taken Atlanta at seven, you would have. That number is gone. At 5.5, on a short week, against an offense that could not sustain a drive on Sunday, the lean is the points, without much confidence in either team. The schedule makers thought this would be a better game when they built it.
The Pick
Lean Falcons +5.5.On Kalshi, that is the Packers not winning by six or more, 49 to 50 cents.
It is a lean. I give you a pick for every game, and we would all be lying to each other to say we have confidence in either of these teams going into a Thursday night game.
Injury Report
- Michael Penix Jr. Full practice Wednesday, first start since the ACL. Tua Tagovailoa (full) is the backup; Cooper Rush and Jack Strand are behind him.
- Green Bay's offensive line. Aaron Banks and Zach Bako-Bewele did not practice Wednesday; Donovan Jennings and Anthony Belton were limited. Two new starters in front of Love on a short week.
- Jayden Reed. Did not practice, no return date after Sunday's neck injury. Josh Jacobs is out (personal). Javon Hargrave and Edgerrin Cooper were limited on defense.
- A.J. Terrell. Atlanta's top corner did not practice Wednesday. Samson Ebukam did not either. Without Terrell, Love's deep shots to Watson and Matthew Golden get easier.
- Weather. About 60 degrees at kickoff, wind under five miles an hour, no rain in the forecast. Nothing in the total.
My picks for the rest of Week 3 are in NFL Week 3 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Michael Penix Jr. photo by All-Pro Reels, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
