Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026.
I will keep this simple. The Lions' defense looks awful right now and the offense has scored 31 in back-to-back games. The Jets should have beaten Green Bay and did not, and the reason was not the players. It was the head coach. Lions -6.5.
Kickoff: Sunday, September 27, 1:00 PM ET, Ford Field
The Game Lines
Kalshi in cents, bid and ask. Sportsbook column is the consensus line.
| Line | Kalshi | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread: Lions Win By 7 Or More | 51-52¢ | Lions −6.5 |
| Total: Over 47.5 Points | 50-52¢ | 47.5 |
| Moneyline: Lions Win | 72-73¢ | Lions -305 / Jets +245 |
Detroit is laying 6.5 in its dome. On Kalshi, the Lions winning by seven or more is 51 to 52 cents, and Detroit to win outright is 72 to 73, about -270. The over at 47.5 is 50 to 52 cents. Detroit's games have gone over twice; the Jets' games have gone under twice. If you are teasing this week, the Lions through the 6.5 with the Chiefs or the Seahawks is the six-point teaser I would look at.
Where The Edges Are
| Matchup | Jets | Lions | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jets run game vs Lions run D | 21st | 32nd | Jets O |
| Jets passing game vs Lions pass D | 9th | 23rd | Jets O, clearly |
| Jets pass protection vs Lions pass rush | 6th | 14th | Jets O |
| Jets explosive plays vs Lions big-play D | 21st | 23rd | even |
| Lions run game vs Jets run D | 4th | 14th | Jets D |
| Lions passing game vs Jets pass D | 11th | 5th | Lions O |
| Lions pass protection vs Jets pass rush | 21st | 28th | Jets D |
| Lions explosive plays vs Jets big-play D | 2nd | 20th | Jets D, clearly |
Ranks out of 32 through Week 2 of 2026, nflverse play-by-play. Run game = EPA per carry, passing = EPA per dropback, protection = sacks-plus-hits rate against pressure rate, explosive = rate of completions of 20-plus. O = that offense has the edge, D = the defense does.
Jets, best: pass protection (6th), passing efficiency (9th), pass defense yards (1st). Worst: ypc (23rd), touchdowns (22nd), explosive runs allowed (28th).
Lions, best: explosive runs (2nd), touchdowns (4th), pass rush (14th). Worst: pass protection (28th), ypa (25th), run defense efficiency (32nd).
A Sieve For A Game And A Half
Detroit lost 41-31 in Buffalo as a 5.5-point underdog, 0-2 against the spread. For two and a half quarters against New Orleans the defense looked great; over the last game and a half it has been annihilated. Buffalo had a 58% success rate, eight runs of 10-plus and 6.2 a carry, and Detroit sent five-plus rushers 42% of the time without getting home. I think they forced one punt all day. Everything else was a touchdown or a kneel-down. Kelvin Sheppard is under fire and Aidan Hutchinson said there will be changes.
The offense is fine. Jared Goff was 26 of 38 for 327 and four touchdowns, Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 9 of 13 for 142 and two scores, and Detroit hit five completions of 20-plus. Goff took four sacks and ten hits and the run game averaged 3.3 a carry, but 31 points twice in a row is the number. Detroit is 7-3 against the spread off a loss since 2024 and 9-8-1 as a home favorite, and it has had ten days since the Thursday loss.
It Was Not Geno Smith's Fault
The Jets lost 20-17 in overtime at home to Green Bay and covered +3.5, 2-0 against the spread. They stymied Jordan Love all day: 32% success rate, 1 of 9 on third down, one completion of 20-plus allowed. New York allows minus-0.17 EPA per play for the season. It was not Geno Smith's fault (27 of 40 for 247 behind four sacks and eight hits), not Breece Hall's, not Adonai Mitchell's, not Garrett Wilson's, not the pass rush's.
It was Aaron Glenn's, time and again. Tied with a minute left and Green Bay facing fourth down near midfield, he did not call a timeout and let Matt LaFleur bleed the clock into a Hail Mary; he said afterward he did not consider it. Then he took the ball first in an overtime that is not sudden death and went three-and-out, and the Packers drove for the field goal. He made terrible decisions last year and he is already doing it this year. When I bet a game, that goes into it. The run game could not move either: 2.5 a carry with a 30% stuff rate, Hall 16 for 29.
The Other Half Of The Reunion
Glenn goes back to Detroit, where he ran the defense from 2021 to 2024. He knows Goff's pre-snap tendencies and the Lions' blitz pickups. But Dan Campbell is going up against his former defensive coordinator too, coming off an embarrassing prime-time loss, at home in the dome. You do not think he wants this one? Inside seven, with the Lions' offense the way it is, there are a lot of ways this goes south for the Jets very fast.
The Pick
Lions -6.5.On Kalshi, that is Detroit winning by seven or more, 51 to 52 cents.
The lean is the Lions because I do not trust Aaron Glenn to make the right decision when the game is close, and because this offense has scored 31 in back-to-back games with a defense that bad.
Injury Report
- Detroit's secondary. Four completions of 20-plus allowed to Buffalo, 446 yards overall. Campbell said the back end has to be cleaned up.
- The Jets' run game. 2.5 a carry against Green Bay; Detroit's run defense allowed 6.2 a carry. Something gives.
- Goff's protection. Four sacks and ten hits from Buffalo; the Jets got three sacks and three hits on Love.
- Dome. No weather. The total is a football question.
My picks for the rest of Week 3 are in NFL Week 3 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero photo: All-Pro Reels via Wikimedia Commons (Jared Goff 2022.jpg), licensed CC BY-SA 2.0; cropped and toned.
