Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026.
I am not going to spend a lot of time on this. The Dolphins are the worst team in football. Kalshi has them at 42 cents to finish with the worst record in the league, two weeks into the season. They cannot move the ball, and last week I wondered whether they could backdoor games; now I fear they are too bad to backdoor anything. Lean Chiefs -11.5, and I am not betting it.
Kickoff: Sunday, September 27, 1:00 PM ET, Hard Rock Stadium
The Game Lines
Kalshi in cents, bid and ask. Sportsbook column is the consensus line.
| Line | Kalshi | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread: Chiefs Win By 12 Or More | 52-53¢ | Chiefs −11.5 |
| Total: Over 46.5 Points | 49-50¢ | 46.5 |
| Moneyline: Chiefs Win | 85-86¢ | Chiefs -900 / Dolphins +600 |
Kansas City is laying 11.5 on the road. Kalshi's ladder tops out at the Chiefs by 11 or more, 52 to 53 cents; Kansas City to win outright is 85 to 86, about -575. The over at 46.5 is 49 to 50 cents. Kansas City is 4-10 against the spread as a road favorite since 2024, the worst in the league.
Where The Edges Are
| Matchup | Chiefs | Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs run game vs Dolphins run D | 1st | 13th | Chiefs O, clearly |
| Chiefs passing game vs Dolphins pass D | 12th | 31st | Chiefs O, clearly |
| Chiefs pass protection vs Dolphins pass rush | 4th | 32nd | Chiefs O, clearly |
| Chiefs explosive plays vs Dolphins big-play D | 16th | 22nd | Chiefs O |
| Dolphins run game vs Chiefs run D | 28th | 25th | even |
| Dolphins passing game vs Chiefs pass D | 5th | 25th | Chiefs D, clearly |
| Dolphins pass protection vs Chiefs pass rush | 19th | 32nd | Chiefs D, clearly |
| Dolphins explosive plays vs Chiefs big-play D | 5th | 3rd | even |
Ranks out of 32 through Week 2 of 2026, nflverse play-by-play. Run game = EPA per carry, passing = EPA per dropback, protection = sacks-plus-hits rate against pressure rate, explosive = rate of completions of 20-plus. O = that offense has the edge, D = the defense does.
Chiefs, best: rushing yards (1st), rushing efficiency (1st), pass defense yards (4th). Worst: explosive passes (16th), passing efficiency (12th), run defense efficiency (28th).
Dolphins, best: explosive passes (3rd), ypa (8th), explosive runs allowed (9th). Worst: pass protection (32nd), scoring (30th), pass rush (32nd).
The Chiefs Win Games. They Do Not Cover These.
Kansas City beat Indianapolis 33-30 in overtime as a 6-point favorite and did not cover, which is the same reason we took the Colts last week. Patrick Mahomes threw 47 times for 382 and three scores, Travis Kelce caught 9 of 11 for 101, and Kenneth Walker III went 24 for 117; they had no run game last year and they certainly do now. The offense ran 78 plays at 55% success. The defense allowed 30 points, 5.2 a carry and five completions of 20-plus, with zero sacks.
We said it all last year and we are saying it this year: the Chiefs win, and they win convincingly enough, and they do not cover the big numbers. I would not be surprised if they win this by 30. That is the honest truth. It is also true that 4-10 as a road favorite is a record over three seasons.
Forty-Two Cents To Be The Worst Team In Football
Miami lost 35-13 in San Francisco as a 12.5-point underdog, its third straight non-cover. Malik Willis was 14 of 23 for 197 with four sacks; De'Von Achane ran 20 times for 74. The defense allowed Brock Purdy to go 20 of 22, a 57% success rate, five completions of 20-plus, and got two hits and zero sacks. Miami allows 0.17 EPA per play for the season. The Dolphins are 4-2 against the spread as a home underdog since 2024, which is the only number on their side.
On Kalshi's worst-regular-season-record market, Miami is 42 cents, down from 45 when I recorded the video but the point stands: two weeks in and the market has them nearly a coin flip to be the worst team in the league. Tennessee is next at 15.
If You Want The Chiefs, Tease Them
If I am leaning anywhere it is Kansas City, because there is too much firepower and the run game changes the math on a blowout. But this is the spot for a six-point teaser with Seattle and Detroit, not a spread bet at 11.5. I do not know how Miami backdoors it. I also know how this team covers big numbers.
The Pick
Lean Chiefs -11.5.Kalshi's top rung is Kansas City by 11 or more at 52 to 53 cents; there is no 11.5 contract.
A lean and not a bet. If you are playing Kansas City, tease the number down with Seattle and Detroit.
Injury Report
- Kansas City's pass rush. Zero sacks on Daniel Jones. Willis took four sacks from San Francisco; the rush has to show up for the blowout.
- Jaylen Wright (MIA). Neck, questionable. Achane carried 20 times last week.
- Heat. Upper 80s at kickoff, wind about nine, 19% chance of rain. Miami's one edge is the afternoon.
- The worst-record market. Dolphins 42 cents, Titans 15, Falcons 10 on Kalshi. That is the context for an 11.5-point line.
My picks for the rest of Week 3 are in NFL Week 3 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero photo: All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA via Wikimedia Commons (Washington Commanders at Kansas City Chiefs (55090109417).jpg), licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; cropped and toned.
