Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026.
Most people are going to be all over the Bengals, and I do not blame you. Joe Burrow has been fine, not great; it is Ja'Marr Chase in the end zone that is winning games. Pittsburgh's offense is in trouble. But it is a 1-1 team at home in the division as a 3.5-point dog, and I will begrudgingly take the Steelers +3.5.
Kickoff: Sunday, September 27, 1:00 PM ET, Acrisure Stadium
The Game Lines
Kalshi in cents, bid and ask. Sportsbook column is the consensus line.
| Line | Kalshi | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread: Bengals Win By 4 Or More | 49-50¢ | Bengals −3.5 |
| Total: Over 42.5 Points | 49-50¢ | 42.5 |
| Moneyline: Bengals Win | 63-64¢ | Bengals -192 / Steelers +160 |
Cincinnati is laying 3.5. On Kalshi, the Bengals winning by four or more is 49 to 50 cents, and Cincinnati to win outright is 63 to 64, about -175. The over at 42.5 is 49 to 50 cents. Both Pittsburgh games have gone under.
Where The Edges Are
| Matchup | Bengals | Steelers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals run game vs Steelers run D | 15th | 18th | even |
| Bengals passing game vs Steelers pass D | 24th | 1st | Steelers D, clearly |
| Bengals pass protection vs Steelers pass rush | 30th | 3rd | Steelers D, clearly |
| Bengals explosive plays vs Steelers big-play D | 12th | 31st | Bengals O, clearly |
| Steelers run game vs Bengals run D | 5th | 20th | Bengals D, clearly |
| Steelers passing game vs Bengals pass D | 4th | 31st | Bengals D, clearly |
| Steelers pass protection vs Bengals pass rush | 17th | 13th | even |
| Steelers explosive plays vs Bengals big-play D | 14th | 30th | Bengals D, clearly |
Ranks out of 32 through Week 2 of 2026, nflverse play-by-play. Run game = EPA per carry, passing = EPA per dropback, protection = sacks-plus-hits rate against pressure rate, explosive = rate of completions of 20-plus. O = that offense has the edge, D = the defense does.
Bengals, best: explosive runs (8th), scoring (12th), run defense yards (1st). Worst: pass protection (30th), success rate (24th), pass defense yards (30th).
Steelers, best: pass protection (13th), rushing efficiency (20th), pass defense efficiency (1st). Worst: ypa (32nd), scoring (31st), explosive passes allowed (31st).
The Only Team With More Drops Is Green Bay
Pittsburgh lost 20-3 in New England as a 4.5-point underdog. Aaron Rodgers was 23 of 39 for 187, no touchdowns, a pick, 0 for 3 deep, four sacks and seven hits. The offense went 2 of 12 on third down with a 37% success rate and is at minus-0.33 EPA per play for the season, second worst in the league. Rodgers is clearly in the twilight, but I do not put all of it on him. The only team with more drops than Pittsburgh this year is Green Bay. DK Metcalf has been credited with three; I have watched these games and it is more like six. Roman Wilson dropped a touchdown in the end zone that was a beautiful throw.
The defense is still talented enough. It gave Drake Maye a tough time (three sacks, six hits), it allowed four completions of 20-plus but held New England to 41% success, and it was the only reason Pittsburgh beat Atlanta in Week 1. Pittsburgh is 8-5 against the spread off a loss and 6-3 as a home underdog since 2024. Rico Dowdle (toe) and Michael Pittman Jr. (foot) are questionable.
A Pedestrian Offense With A Real Defense
Cincinnati won 20-6 in Houston as a 3-point underdog, 2-0 against the spread. The defense won it: Houston had a 31% success rate and went 5 of 17 on third down, the Bengals got four sacks and seven hits sending five-plus rushers only 14% of the time, and Cincinnati allows minus-0.22 EPA per play for the season. The pieces they added on the defensive line in the offseason are paying immediate dividends, and you cannot ignore that.
The offense was pedestrian: 31% success, Burrow 20 of 31 for 207 with five sacks and nine hits and a completion rate 6.5 points under expected. Chase caught 7 of 9 for 75 and two touchdowns, Tee Higgins 5 for 95, Chase Brown 20 for 80. Burrow has more weapons and is the younger, more talented quarterback. He also took 14 sacks-plus-hits from a Houston front that is not Pittsburgh's.
What It Is Not
It is not Mike Tomlin as a home dog in the division, the bet you used to snap without thinking. We do not have that anymore. It is still a 1-1 team at home in the division outside a field goal, with a defense that travels, and if the drops stop it moves the ball better than we have seen. Cincinnati is 1-4 against the spread in the last five meetings.
The Pick
Steelers +3.5.On Kalshi, that is the Bengals not winning by four or more, 50 to 51 cents.
Begrudgingly. The Bengals are the better team; the number is about the division, the home field and a defense that keeps Pittsburgh in games.
Injury Report
- Rico Dowdle (PIT). Toe, questionable. Jaylen Warren carries it if he sits.
- Michael Pittman Jr. (PIT). Foot, questionable. Metcalf and Germie Bernard saw 17 targets last week and caught eight.
- Cincinnati's protection. Five sacks and nine hits allowed in Houston. Pittsburgh's rush got nine sacks-plus-hits on Maye.
- Weather. About 70 degrees, wind 7, dry. Nothing in the total.
My picks for the rest of Week 3 are in NFL Week 3 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero photo: All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA via Wikimedia Commons (WFT vs. Bengals (51394233163).jpg), licensed CC BY-SA 2.0; cropped and toned.
