The Quick Answer
Mary Peltola is the favorite to win Alaska's Senate seat. Kalshi priced her near 61¢ to win the November 3 ranked-choice general, with incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan near 42¢. Those prices are from August 22, four days after the primary, and they were a real move from the near coin flip the market quoted before the vote.
The August 18 top-four primary went the way the market expected at the top. Peltola finished first, Sullivan second, and the strangest proposition on the board came in: Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a Petersburg retiree whose only campaign asset was sharing the senator's name, finished third. The fourth slot was still being counted when these prices were taken.
This article does not advocate for or against any candidate or party.
The Board
Prices are Kalshi quotes as of Saturday, August 22. Vote shares are the Alaska Division of Elections count reported through Thursday, August 21, with mailed ballots counted if received by August 28.
| Candidate | Primary share (unofficial) | Advance contract | Win Nov. 3 general (Aug 22) | Before primary (Aug 18) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola (D) | ~48.1% | Finalized YES | ~61¢ (59¢ bid / 61¢ ask) | ~55¢ |
| Dan S. Sullivan (R, incumbent) | ~42.7% | Finalized YES | ~42¢ (40¢ bid / 42¢ ask) | mid-to-high 40s |
| Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. | ~2.4% | 99¢ bid, awaiting final count | ~1¢ | ~1¢ |
| David Leslie (D) | ~1.1%, led fourth by ~17 votes | 89¢ bid / 96¢ ask | — | — |
| Gerald Heikes (R) | ~1.1%, ~17 votes back | 4¢ bid / 6¢ ask | — | — |
Why November Moved Toward Peltola
Before the primary, the general was close to a coin flip. The primary handed Peltola a lead of about five and a half points over the incumbent, and the market repriced the seat by about six cents. That is a measured move, and the reason it was not bigger is ranked-choice voting.
In November, Alaska voters rank the four survivors. If nobody clears 50% on first choices, the last-place candidate drops out and those voters' second choices are redistributed until someone crosses the line. Sullivan's path runs through consolidating the Republican-leaning vote that scattered across several names in August, including whatever share of the second Sullivan's votes were meant for him all along. Peltola's own 2022 House win came under this same system, settled by second choices rather than a first-round lead.
Read 61¢ as the market calling her the favorite on her primary showing plus the ranked-choice math. Read 42¢ as the market saying an incumbent Republican in Alaska with a consolidation path is far from dead. For how this seat fits the fight for the chamber, the 2026 balance-of-power board prices every path in one place.
The Second Dan Sullivan Finished Third
There are two candidates named Dan Sullivan in this race. The incumbent is Republican Sen. Daniel S. Sullivan, in office since 2015. The other is Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. of Petersburg, a retired teacher and former U.S. Forest Service worker who filed for the same seat three days before the deadline.
The Alaska Division of Elections tried to keep him off the ballot, arguing he had not filed in good faith. A superior-court judge ruled he must stay, and the Alaska Supreme Court upheld that in late June. On the ballot he was listed as "Daniel J. Sullivan Jr." with no party label next to his name, while the incumbent was marked as the incumbent. As NBC News has reported, the FBI, the Alaska attorney general and the U.S. attorney's office in Alaska have all looked into whether anyone conspired to plant a same-named challenger. On primary day itself, the Justice Department issued grand jury subpoenas in that probe. Sullivan Jr. has denied that his aim was to confuse voters. An investigation is a fact, not a verdict, and this article alleges nothing.
The voters answered the market's question anyway. Roughly 3,200 Alaskans, about 2.4% of the ballots counted, marked the Sullivan who has never held office. That was third place and better than double any other name below the top two.
His advancement contract was a 41¢ price when this page first ran on August 16. After the count it was bid at 99¢, while his contract to win in November stayed near a penny. The name was worth a ballot line, and the market was emphatic that a ballot line is all it was worth. The full story of the name twin is in our two-Dan-Sullivans breakdown.
The Fourth Slot Came Down To About 17 Votes
This is the part the primary-day market missed. On the afternoon of the vote, the fourth-slot argument was between Dustin Darden, Richard Grayson, Gerald Heikes and Scott Kohlhaas, with Darden the nominal favorite. Only Heikes was still in it. Democrat David Leslie, barely quoted that day, led Heikes by roughly 17 votes on the August 21 count, with both near 1.1%.
Mailed absentee ballots received by August 28 could still flip a margin that thin. Whoever took the slot, the stakes for the seat were small, and the November market said so. Remember the miss the next time a small-market price looks confident.
Bottom Line
On August 22 prices, the seat was Peltola's to lose at 61¢ against Sullivan's 42¢, with ranked-choice math the argument for the ten weeks to November. The money behind the primary is in our Alaska super-PAC spoiler breakdown. Every price cited here is graded once the markets settle on our Model Verdict scoreboard, including the fourth-slot read the primary-day board got wrong.
Stokastic Desk waitlist.Stokastic Desk is our trading platform for Kalshi. Fair value on every market we price, the edge after fees, backtests for your own ideas, and the trade placed without leaving the screen. Your money stays in your Kalshi account.
More on this: 2026 Senate Races: Every Kalshi Board We Track · Alaska Senate Primary Odds: Buying Fourth Place On Kalshi · The Two Dan Sullivans On Alaska's Senate Ballot · 2026 Balance Of Power: Model Verdict
