Alaska's U.S. Senate race is not called. The Alaska Division of Elections' unofficial summary report, timestamped 2:19 a.m. Alaska time on Wednesday, November 4, has Democrat Mary Peltola at 102,701 first-choice votes (48.02%) and Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan at 102,075 (47.73%), a 626-vote gap, with 394 of 401 precincts reported, 213,873 votes in the Senate race and 215,335 ballots cast in those precincts.
The Associated Press has not declared a winner; its election-night story, updated at 4:59 a.m. ET on November 4, says "the race remained too early to call" and has both candidates urging patience, and the Alaska Beacon called it "too close to call early Wednesday morning." What is left: seven precincts, "thousands of absentee and early votes" per the Beacon, absentee ballots that can arrive by mail as late as November 18, and then, if nobody clears 50% once those are counted, the ranked-choice tabulation the state runs on November 18, with certification set for November 25.
The size of what is left matters more than the list: the Beacon's pre-election turnout expectation was 260,000 to 300,000 voters against the 215,335 counted so far, more than 14,000 mailed absentee ballots were still out as of Sunday noon and all but a handful of those historically arrive within a week, by November 10 this year, and the Anchorage Daily News put it at "tens of thousands of ballots" against a 626-vote gap.
The grade, in one line: this page had Peltola at 61¢ on August 22; the race is not called, she leads the first-choice count by 626 votes, and Kalshi has her party's contract at 85¢ bid, 86¢ ask this morning.
That line needs one piece of fine print. The page's argument in August was that ranked-choice math was the reason Peltola's price was not higher, and the count has now delivered exactly the case that math was written for: nobody has cleared 50% on the votes counted so far, and the AP notes more returns are needed to know whether either candidate gets there or the tabulation is triggered. Unless the remaining ballots push someone past the line, the second choices of the 8,404 Alaskans who ranked Gerald Heikes or the other Dan Sullivan first, plus 693 write-in ballots, decide it on November 18. Everything below the new board rows is the page as it stood after the August primary, kept as the record of what it said, with the tape of the ten weeks in between and what happened to each thing the page was watching.
The Quick Answer
Not called.Peltola leads Sullivan 48.02% to 47.73% on first choices in the state's 2:19 a.m. Alaska-time count, seven precincts out, absentees counting through November 18. Kalshi's market is still open: the Democratic contract is 85¢ bid, 86¢ ask and the Republican contract 14¢ bid, 15¢ ask as of 8:51 a.m. ET on November 4. On August 22 this page had the Democrat at 61¢ and the Republican at 42¢.
The market priced this race on the Lower 48 before a single Alaska ballot was counted, then rode the count from a 97¢ high on real size to a 71¢ low in 79 minutes. What is left to trade is the absentee count and the November 18 tabulation; the contract resolves on a swearing-in, or earlier if media organizations reach a consensus projection. The election-night tape, and the record of what this page said, is below.
These are market prices, not predictions of fact and not financial or voting advice. This article does not advocate for or against any candidate or party.
Stay ahead of the markets.
Daily insights and expert picks on Kalshi, Polymarket, and what's moving markets.
Free forever. Unsubscribe anytime.
The Board
The first table is the record this page carried from August 22. The second is the race as it stands this morning.
Prices are Kalshi quotes as of Saturday, August 22. Vote shares are the Alaska Division of Elections count reported through Friday, August 21, with mailed ballots counted if received by August 28.
| Candidate | Primary share (unofficial) | Advance contract | Win Nov. 3 general (Aug 22) | Before primary (Aug 18) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola (D) | ~48.1% | Finalized YES | ~61¢ (59¢ bid / 61¢ ask) | ~55¢ |
| Dan S. Sullivan (R, Incumbent) | ~42.7% | Finalized YES | ~42¢ (40¢ bid / 42¢ ask) | mid-to-high 40s |
| Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. | ~2.4% | 99¢ bid, awaiting final count | ~1¢ | ~1¢ |
| David Leslie (D) | ~1.1%, led fourth by ~17 votes | 89¢ bid / 96¢ ask | — | — |
| Gerald Heikes (R) | ~1.1%, ~17 votes back | 4¢ bid / 6¢ ask | — | — |
November 4. First-choice votes are the Division of Elections' unofficial summary report timestamped 2:19 a.m. Alaska time, 394 of 401 precincts. Kalshi prices are the SENATEAK-26 book at 8:51 a.m. ET, with Kalshi's last-price field from the same snapshot; the market prices the party, not the name, so the two minor candidates have no contract of their own. In August this page read the two party contracts as Peltola's and Sullivan's prices because each party had one credible name on the ballot.
| Candidate | First-choice votes (Nov 4, 2:19 a.m. AKST) | Share | Kalshi win contract (Nov 4, 8:51 a.m. ET) | On Aug 22 this page had |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola (D) | 102,701 | 48.02% | Democratic contract: 85¢ bid / 86¢ ask, last price 87¢ | ~61¢ |
| Dan S. Sullivan (R, Incumbent) | 102,075 | 47.73% | Republican contract: 14¢ bid / 15¢ ask, last price 15¢ | ~42¢ |
| Gerald Heikes (R) | 4,821 | 2.25% | None listed; a Heikes win would resolve the Republican contract | — |
| Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. (No Party Listed) | 3,583 | 1.68% | None listed | ~1¢ |
| Write-In | 693 | 0.32% | — | — |
The row to read twice is Heikes. The page spent a section on the fourth slot and concluded the stakes for the seat were small. His 4,821 first-choice votes are nearly eight times the 626-vote gap between the two leaders, and under ranked-choice tabulation every one of those ballots gets a second look on November 18.
The Record
Here is what this page said on August 22 against where the race stands on the morning of November 4, item by item. Nothing here is final; the count is not.
| Item | What the page said on August 22 | Where it stands on November 4 |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi Price | Peltola near 61¢, Sullivan near 42¢ | Democratic contract 85¢ bid / 86¢ ask, Republican 14¢ bid / 15¢ ask. Still trading |
| The Call | "The seat was Peltola's to lose" | Not called. Peltola leads first choices 102,701 to 102,075 with 7 of 401 precincts and the absentee count still out |
| Primary Shares | Peltola ~48.1%, Sullivan ~42.7% on the August 21 partial count | The final primary count, per the ADN's election-night report, was Peltola 49.5%, Sullivan 41.4%, the second Dan Sullivan 2.5%, Heikes 1%: an 8.1-point primary gap, not five and a half, which makes the six-cent August reprice look even more measured |
| Ranked-Choice Math | "The reason it was not bigger is ranked-choice voting" | Nobody has cleared 50% on the votes counted so far; unless the remaining ballots push someone over, the November 18 tabulation decides it |
| Sullivan's Path | His path "runs through consolidating the Republican-leaning vote that scattered across several names" | The scattered vote is 4,821 for Heikes and 3,583 for the other Dan Sullivan, 8,404 ballots whose second choices now matter more than the 626-vote gap |
| The Second Dan Sullivan | "A ballot line is all it was worth" | He finished fourth of four on first choices at 1.68%, behind Heikes. His candidacy also became the subject of a federal lawsuit, a criminal probe and a New York Times report, below |
| Fourth Slot | Leslie led Heikes by about 17 votes; "the stakes for the seat were small" | The count never decided it. Leslie held fourth in the final count, 109 votes ahead of Heikes, and withdrew on August 31, the deadline to leave the general ballot, elevating Heikes from fifth, per the ADN. Heikes has 4,821 first-choice votes, 2.25%, and whether the stakes were small gets tested on November 18 |
| Governor | Governor, same ballot | Not called either. The Kreiss-Tomkins/Johnson ticket, listed DEM/NON, leads at 49.01% on the same 2:19 a.m. report, but the three Republican tickets together have 50.7%, so that race, like this one, turns on where the second choices go |
| Ranked-Choice Repeal | Alaska keeps ranked-choice voting? | Early results had "No" on the repeal measure leading at 51% with 84% of precincts in, per Alaska Public Media, which notes the same question flipped on late ballots in 2024 |
One more line belongs on that table and it is the market's own. The Kalshi rule reads: "If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Alaska for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes," with a second clause making it "eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner." No consensus exists yet, so neither clause has fired. Kalshi's expected expiration is January 4, 2027, and the listed outer expiration is November 3, 2027. The market can also resolve well before November 18: Alaska Public Media reports the state "will make its ballot data file available during the counting process, so the Associated Press could conduct its own tabulation and call the race sooner," and an AP call is the kind of projection the second clause is written for. At 85¢ to 86¢, what the Democratic contract is pricing is the absentee count, the tabulation and whatever follows it.
What The Tape Did In Ten Weeks
The tape this page holds runs from Friday, September 4, when the Republican contract traded at 35¢ and 36¢, already six cents under the 42¢ the page quoted on August 22. It slid to 32¢ by September 17 and to a 26¢ volume-weighted day on September 23, which moved 397,903 contracts including two 125,000-contract prints at 26¢ in the same second at 9:56 p.m. ET, then climbed back to 31¢ and 32¢ by the end of the month. The low came the week of October 5, when it printed 21¢ and spent October 7 at a volume-weighted 23.7¢. From there it drifted in a 24¢ to 28¢ band for three weeks. The Democratic contract was the mirror: 65¢ on September 4, as high as 76¢ on September 22 and 23, a 77¢ high on October 7, 73¢ to 76¢ through mid-October.
Two news days are worth setting against that tape. On Friday, October 23, the Justice Department sued at President Trump's direction to block certification if Sullivan lost, per the AP's story on the suit; the Republican contract traded 24¢ to 26¢ all day and closed at 25¢, where it had opened. On Wednesday, October 28, The New York Times reported that Peltola's campaign, in the AP's words, "appeared to be involved in efforts to recruit" the second Dan Sullivan; Alaska Public Media notes the reporting "was based largely on a former campaign manager Peltola fired" and that it "has not independently confirmed the reporting," and Peltola denied involvement. The contract held at 27¢ through 2 p.m. ET, then took 160,076 contracts in the 3 p.m. hour, including a 130,381-contract print at 27¢ at 3:10 p.m., and was 30¢ by 4 p.m. and 30¢ to 32¢ in the 5 p.m. hour, closing at 32¢: the day moved 367,393 contracts, the third-busiest day before the election behind September 23 and the Monday before the vote. It held 31¢ to 32¢ through October 30, closing that day at 31¢. On Sunday, November 1, the day Judge Sharon Gleason dismissed the lawsuit, a 136,044-contract print went through on the Republican contract at 28¢ at 12:56 p.m. ET with the taker on the NO side, the largest single print on that contract in the ten weeks of tape this page holds. The Republican contract went into election day at 28¢ to 31¢.
Then the market priced Alaska without Alaska. At 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday, November 3, with the polls in Anchorage open for five more hours, the Republican contract was 30¢. It was 25¢ at 8 p.m., 13¢ at 8:30 p.m., and 10¢ to 11¢ by 8:50 p.m., all of it on Lower 48 returns; the AP's election-night story notes that Democrats had already won control of the Senate before polls closed in Alaska. Sullivan's line to his supporters at the Hotel Captain Cook, as Alaska Public Media reported it, was "We're seeing a blue wave in the Lower 48. That's not good. But we all know the great state of Alaska is different."
The first Alaska numbers, which the Beacon had warned would "be more right-leaning than the final result" because early votes skew Democratic and some are counted late, did the opposite in the first drop: Peltola opened with a big lead on the early vote. The Democratic contract was 91.9¢ at 12:45 a.m. ET, 94.6¢ at 1 a.m., and 97¢ to 98¢ on real size by 1:14 a.m., with a one-hundredth-of-a-contract print at 99¢. At 1:04:20 a.m. a 3,227-contract print cleared the Republican side at 0.3¢. Then the election-day precincts came in. Alaska Public Media reports Peltola's party ended at 10 p.m. Alaska time, 2 a.m. ET, with her lead "shrunk to 200 votes," and that with more than 80% of precincts reporting Sullivan "took a slight lead." The tape has the turn starting at 1:40 a.m. ET: the Republican contract went from 4¢ to 19¢ inside ten minutes on 319,447 contracts, the busiest ten minutes of the night, and traded as high as 29¢ in the 2:30 a.m. ten minutes; the Democratic contract printed 71¢ at 2:33 a.m. on two 30-contract lots at the bottom of a sweep, back to where it had opened election day. From 97¢ to 71¢ in 79 minutes.
The rural precincts, which the Anchorage Daily News had said were "expected to favor Peltola," were the last to report, and the state's 2:19 a.m. Alaska-time summary put her back in front by 626. The Democratic contract traded 83¢ to 88¢ in the 3 a.m. ET hour, 86¢ to 87¢ when that report was stamped at 6:19 a.m. ET, and 83¢ to 87¢ through the 8 a.m. hour, which included a 10,000-contract sale at 84¢ at 8:07 a.m.; the book was 85¢ bid, 86¢ ask at 8:51 a.m. Between midnight ET on November 3 and 8:07 a.m. on November 4, the Republican contract traded 3,646,802 contracts, about 51% of everything it has traded since Kalshi listed it in December 2024; the Democratic contract's 2,776,124 over the same stretch is about 46% of its lifetime. Open interest at 8:51 a.m. is 3,338,861 on the Republican side and 2,526,939 on the Democratic side, and every one of those contracts is still waiting on a count that the state says runs two more weeks.
The market's half of the record ends there. The page's half, the argument it made after the August primary, follows exactly as it was written, with a short note under each heading on what happened to it.
Why November Moved Toward Peltola
Written after the August 22 prices, kept as the record. What happened: the ranked-choice case this section makes is now the whole race. Nobody has cleared 50% on the votes counted so far, so unless the absentees change that, the tabulation on November 18 decides it, and the 8,404 ballots marked for Heikes or the second Dan Sullivan are the pool the section said Sullivan's path runs through. The arithmetic on the current count: the 693 write-in ballots are redistributed first, as the smallest pile, then the second Dan Sullivan's 3,583, then Heikes's 4,821, and Sullivan needs a net 627 votes out of those transfers to pass Peltola, which is 53.7% of the 8,404 ballots marked for Heikes or the second Sullivan if every one of them reaches a leader (the write-ins are too few to move that share much), and a higher share of a smaller pool if many ballots exhaust instead. Exhaustion is the live question, because the Anchorage Daily News reports more than $2 million in ads to boost Heikes, one of them heavily funded by the progressive Sixteen Thirty Fund, and reports that the Heikes ads "encouraged voters to rank only Heikes on their ballot, instead of ranking multiple choices." A Heikes ballot with no second choice transfers to nobody. That is before the absentee count moves the 626-vote gap in either direction, and the Republican contract at 14¢ bid, 15¢ ask is the market's estimate of how likely Sullivan is to get there. The mechanic below is the textbook version; the live version is that Sullivan needs 4,516 of the 8,404 transferable ballots, and the ads that paid for the Heikes line asked those voters not to mark a second choice. One line below has it wrong: Peltola led the first round in 2022 too, without clearing 50%, and still needed the reallocation to win, the same shape as this count. And the chamber link below is a margin story now, not a control story: the AP reports Democrats had won the Senate before Alaska's polls closed, and the Beacon has Peltola, if she prevails, as "the 55th or 56th Democratic senator."
Before the primary, the general was close to a coin flip. The primary handed Peltola a lead of about five and a half points over the incumbent, and the market repriced the seat by about six cents. That is a measured move, and the reason it was not bigger is ranked-choice voting.
In November, Alaska voters rank the four survivors. If nobody clears 50% on first choices, the last-place candidate drops out and those voters' second choices are redistributed until someone crosses the line. Sullivan's path runs through consolidating the Republican-leaning vote that scattered across several names in August, including whatever share of the second Sullivan's votes were meant for him all along. Peltola's own 2022 House win came under this same system, settled by second choices rather than a first-round lead.
Read 61¢ as the market calling her the favorite on her primary showing plus the ranked-choice math. Read 42¢ as the market saying an incumbent Republican in Alaska with a consolidation path is far from dead. For how this seat fits the fight for the chamber, the 2026 balance-of-power board prices every path in one place.
The Second Dan Sullivan Finished Third In August
Kept as written, except that one description of the challenger in the first paragraph is trimmed to what NBC News and the AP print; the 2.4% below is the August 21 partial count, and the final primary count gave him 2.5%. What happened: he finished fourth of four in the general's first-choice count, 3,583 votes and 1.68%, behind Heikes. His candidacy became the center of the race's final week. On October 23 the Justice Department sued at President Trump's direction to block certification of a Peltola win pending an inquiry into voter confusion, and on October 28 The New York Times reported, per the AP, that Peltola's campaign "appeared to be involved in efforts to recruit him"; Alaska Public Media notes the reporting "was based largely on a former campaign manager Peltola fired" and that it has not independently confirmed it, Peltola denied involvement, and the Petersburg Sullivan has denied any contact with her campaign. Alaska's attorney general's office called the suit "meritless" and said separating his ballots was "both disturbing and impossible" without violating voter privacy; U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason dismissed it on November 1 and the Justice Department said it would appeal. U.S. Attorney for Alaska Michael Heyman has announced a criminal investigation, saying, per Alaska Public Media, that he was not assuming a crime had occurred, and the Beacon reports Trump told The New York Times late on election night that he would not challenge the results.
There are two candidates named Dan Sullivan in this race. The incumbent is Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan, in office since 2015. The other is Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. of Petersburg, a former teacher who entered the race in May.
The Alaska Division of Elections tried to keep him off the ballot, arguing he had not filed in good faith. A superior-court judge ruled he must stay, and the Alaska Supreme Court upheld that in late June. On the ballot he was listed as "Daniel J. Sullivan Jr." with no party label next to his name, while the incumbent was marked as the incumbent. As NBC News has reported, the FBI, the Alaska attorney general and the U.S. attorney's office in Alaska have all looked into whether anyone conspired to plant a same-named challenger. On primary day itself, the Justice Department issued grand jury subpoenas in that probe. Sullivan Jr. has denied that his aim was to confuse voters. An investigation is a fact, not a verdict, and this article alleges nothing.
The voters answered the market's question anyway. Roughly 3,200 Alaskans, about 2.4% of the ballots counted, marked the Sullivan who has never held office. That was third place and better than double any other name below the top two.
His advancement contract was a 41¢ price when this page first ran on August 16. After the count it was bid at 99¢, while his contract to win in November stayed near a penny. The name was worth a ballot line, and the market was emphatic that a ballot line is all it was worth. The full story of the name twin is in our two-Dan-Sullivans breakdown.
The Fourth Slot Came Down To About 17 Votes
Kept as written. What happened: the 17-vote margin never flipped, because the count never decided the slot. Leslie held fourth, 109 votes ahead of Heikes once the count was final, then withdrew on August 31, the deadline to leave the general ballot, and Heikes was elevated from fifth. The Anchorage Daily News, citing The New York Times, reports Leslie withdrew "after a visit from a Democratic political operative associated with the effort to also recruit the Petersburg Sullivan to run," and that Heikes himself said he was recruited by someone from the Lower 48 to run against Sullivan. So the two minor ballot lines that now decide this race were both shaped, on that reporting, by the same effort, and the Heikes ballots, with the rank-only-Heikes ads behind them described above, are the ones most likely to exhaust rather than transfer. The section's last sentence, that the stakes for the seat were small, is the one claim on this page the November 18 tabulation can still overturn. An investigation is a fact, not a verdict, and this page alleges nothing beyond what those outlets reported.
This is the part the primary-day market missed. On the afternoon of the vote, the fourth-slot argument was between Dustin Darden, Richard Grayson, Gerald Heikes and Scott Kohlhaas, with Darden the nominal favorite. Only Heikes was still in it. Democrat David Leslie, barely quoted that day, led Heikes by roughly 17 votes on the August 21 count, with both near 1.1%.
Mailed absentee ballots received by August 28 could still flip a margin that thin. Whoever took the slot, the stakes for the seat were small, and the November market said so. Remember the miss the next time a small-market price looks confident.
Bottom Line
On August 22 prices, the seat was Peltola's to lose at 61¢ against Sullivan's 42¢, with ranked-choice math the argument for the ten weeks to November. The money behind the primary is in our Alaska super-PAC spoiler breakdown. Every price cited here is graded once the markets settle on our Model Verdict scoreboard, including the fourth-slot read the primary-day board got wrong.
That grade has to wait. Ten weeks later the seat is nobody's yet: Peltola leads by 626 first-choice votes with seven precincts and the absentee count out, the market has her party at 85¢ to 86¢, and the ranked-choice math this page leaned on is no longer the reason the price stopped short. Unless the remaining ballots push someone past 50%, it is the thing that decides the race on November 18. The fourth-slot miss the page promised to grade was bigger than a 17-vote margin: the slot changed hands by withdrawal on the August 31 deadline, not by the count, and the 4,821 ballots now sitting in it are the ones that make that tabulation matter.
More on this: 2026 Senate Races: Every Kalshi Board We Track · Alaska Senate Primary Odds: Buying Fourth Place On Kalshi · The Two Dan Sullivans On Alaska's Senate Ballot · 2026 Balance Of Power: Model Verdict
