Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026.
I had the Jaguars last week and lost, and they had every out: a 13-3 lead in Denver, control of the game, and then 17 unanswered. I still think this is the more complete team of the two, and now it is laying inside a field goal at home. Jaguars -3.
Kickoff: Sunday, September 27, 1:00 PM ET, EverBank Stadium
The Game Lines
Kalshi in cents, bid and ask. Sportsbook column is the consensus line.
| Line | Kalshi | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread: Jaguars Win By 3 Or More | 54-55¢ | Jaguars −3 |
| Total: Over 45.5 Points | 47-48¢ | 45.5 |
| Moneyline: Jaguars Win | 59-60¢ | Jaguars -155 / Patriots +130 |
Jacksonville is a 3-point favorite. On Kalshi, the Jaguars winning by three or more is 54 to 55 cents, and Jacksonville to win outright is 59 to 60, about -145. The over at 45.5 is 47 to 48 cents. Both New England games have gone under.
Where The Edges Are
| Matchup | Patriots | Jaguars | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots run game vs Jaguars run D | 28th | 16th | Jaguars D, clearly |
| Patriots passing game vs Jaguars pass D | 20th | 15th | Jaguars D |
| Patriots pass protection vs Jaguars pass rush | 23rd | 8th | Jaguars D, clearly |
| Patriots explosive plays vs Jaguars big-play D | 23rd | 30th | Patriots O |
| Jaguars run game vs Patriots run D | 14th | 8th | Jaguars O |
| Jaguars passing game vs Patriots pass D | 2nd | 8th | Patriots D |
| Jaguars pass protection vs Patriots pass rush | 7th | 18th | Patriots D |
| Jaguars explosive plays vs Patriots big-play D | 8th | 4th | even |
Ranks out of 32 through Week 2 of 2026, nflverse play-by-play. Run game = EPA per carry, passing = EPA per dropback, protection = sacks-plus-hits rate against pressure rate, explosive = rate of completions of 20-plus. O = that offense has the edge, D = the defense does.
Patriots, best: ypa (13th), rushing yards (18th), points allowed (1st). Worst: touchdowns (30th), rushing efficiency (28th), run stuffs (29th).
Jaguars, best: success rate (4th), explosive passes (4th), points allowed (6th). Worst: passing yards (23rd), pass protection (18th), ypa allowed (30th).
How The Patriots Won Last Week
New England beat Pittsburgh 20-3 as a 4.5-point favorite, its fourth straight cover, and it was the defense: Aaron Rodgers held to 187 yards, one completion of 20-plus allowed, a 37% success rate, four sacks and seven hits with five-plus rushers on 38% of dropbacks, and two takeaways. The Patriots allow minus-0.18 EPA per play for the season. I told you it would be like that; I bet them last week because of the defense, not because of Drake Maye.
Maye was 14 of 22 for 208 with a deep interception, three sacks and six hits, and the offense turned it over twice. He hit 3 of 4 deep balls for 122, including a 63-yarder to Romeo Doubs, so the shots are there. The protection is not, and A.J. Brown is on injured reserve, which is a huge deal for an offense that does not have another receiver who wins on his own. TreVeyon Henderson went 16 for 76 and a score; the run game (5.4 a carry) is the part of this offense that works.
A Team That Had A Lead And Gave It Away
Jacksonville lost 20-13 in Denver as a 2.5-point underdog. Trevor Lawrence was 17 of 29 for 189 with an interception, two interception-worthy throws and seven hits. Parker Washington caught 7 of 12 targets for 98; Brian Thomas Jr. caught 3 of 8 for 40, which is the number I keep coming back to. In 2024 that was one of the best rookie seasons we had ever seen. I do not know what happened to him, but Jacksonville needs him back now.
The defense allowed five completions of 20-plus to Bo Nix, three to Jaylen Waddle, and got zero sacks sending five-plus rushers 39% of the time. That is the worry against Maye's deep ball. But the Jaguars are 23-13 against the spread since 2024, the best in the league, and 6-2 as a home favorite, and they are at home in the heat.
The two defenses can match up with each other. Lawrence, his protection and his weapons outweigh what New England has on the other side, and that is the whole read.
The Pick
Jaguars -3.On Kalshi, that is Jacksonville winning by three or more, 54 to 55 cents.
If Brian Thomas Jr. plays like the 2024 version, this is comfortable. If not, it is a field-goal game, and I still like the home side.
Injury Report
- Brian Thomas Jr. Eight targets, three catches in Denver. The offense is not complete without him and the line knows it.
- New England's line. Three sacks and six hits from Pittsburgh; Jacksonville got zero sacks last week, so the matchup is closer than the rankings say.
- A.J. Brown (NE). Injured reserve. Doubs and Hunter Henry are the targets.
- Heat. Mid-80s at kickoff in Jacksonville, calm, dry. The visiting team plays the second half in it.
My picks for the rest of Week 3 are in NFL Week 3 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero photo: All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA via Wikimedia Commons (Trevor Lawrence vs Commanders 2022.jpg), licensed CC BY-SA 2.0; cropped and toned.
