Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026.
Jayden Daniels went down again, on the same elbow, and Marcus Mariota is not the kind of quarterback who produces the numbers you need against a good defense. Seattle's is not good, it is dominant. Inside a touchdown, I'm going Seattle. Seahawks -7.
Kickoff: Sunday, September 27, 1:00 PM ET, Northwest Stadium, Landover
The Game Lines
Kalshi in cents, bid and ask. Sportsbook column is the consensus line.
| Line | Kalshi | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread: Seahawks Win By 7 Or More | 54-55¢ | Seahawks −7 |
| Total: Over 40.5 Points | 48-49¢ | 40.5 |
| Moneyline: Seahawks Win | 74-75¢ | Seahawks -298 / Commanders +240 |
Seattle is laying 7 in Landover. On Kalshi, the Seahawks winning by seven or more is 54 to 55 cents, and Seattle to win outright is 74 to 75, about -300. The over at 40.5 is 48 to 49 cents, the lowest total on the slate. Seattle's games have gone under twice; Washington's have gone over twice.
Where The Edges Are
| Matchup | Seahawks | Commanders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks run game vs Commanders run D | 24th | 12th | Commanders D, clearly |
| Seahawks passing game vs Commanders pass D | 4th | 29th | Seahawks O, clearly |
| Seahawks pass protection vs Commanders pass rush | 17th | 13th | even |
| Seahawks explosive plays vs Commanders big-play D | 13th | 29th | Seahawks O, clearly |
| Commanders run game vs Seahawks run D | 2nd | 9th | Seahawks D |
| Commanders passing game vs Seahawks pass D | 13th | 17th | even |
| Commanders pass protection vs Seahawks pass rush | 15th | 2nd | Commanders O, clearly |
| Commanders explosive plays vs Seahawks big-play D | 1st | 24th | Seahawks D, clearly |
Ranks out of 32 through Week 2 of 2026, nflverse play-by-play. Run game = EPA per carry, passing = EPA per dropback, protection = sacks-plus-hits rate against pressure rate, explosive = rate of completions of 20-plus. O = that offense has the edge, D = the defense does.
Seahawks, best: rushing yards (4th), passing efficiency (4th), explosive passes allowed (1st). Worst: rushing efficiency (24th), passing yards (20th), pass rush (15th).
Commanders, best: pass protection (2nd), success rate (9th), explosive runs allowed (1st). Worst: explosive runs (26th), explosive passes (24th), ypa allowed (31st).
Drew Lock, JSN, And A Defense That Allowed Nothing
Seattle beat Arizona 31-7 with Drew Lock at quarterback, its third straight cover. Lock was 19 of 26 for 235 and three touchdowns with a completion rate nine points over expected. Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 9 of 11 targets for 155 and three scores, including an 82-yarder; if you watch my DFS shows you know I stacked Lock with JSN last week. Emanuel Wilson ran 21 times for 92. Lock has started enough games in this league, the defense is good enough, and he has arguably the best receiver in football. Nothing else matters against a bad team.
The defense held Arizona to a 32% success rate and zero completions of 20-plus. Seattle allows minus-0.20 EPA per play for the season. I do not care whether it is Lock or Sam Darnold (lower body, questionable) on Sunday. Jadarian Price (chest) is questionable at running back.
Not A Good Football Team Without Daniels
Washington lost 37-20 in Dallas and lost Daniels in the first half, a go-for-it at the 1 with three seconds left before the break. Mariota finished 11 of 16 for 111 and a score. He had a few decent plays, and it was against a Dallas defense that is abysmal right now. The Washington offense was fine by the numbers, 51% success and 5.7 a carry, but the defense was not: CeeDee Lamb had four completions of 20-plus by himself, Dallas had a 56% success rate, and Washington sent five-plus rushers 42% of the time to get two sacks. Washington allows 0.15 EPA per play for the season.
Is Mariota the worst backup in the league? No. But you need better than that against this defense, and Washington's defense is exponentially worse than Seattle's. This is not a good football team right now, and it just lost its path to the playoffs.
The Weather Note
I recorded this Wednesday afternoon. The forecast for Landover is low 70s with wind around 13 miles an hour and a 39% chance of rain. There is a nor'easter on the map, and those track in strange ways. If it rips through on Sunday, bad conditions make the more talented team more dangerous, because the defense decides the game. Check the forecast Sunday morning if you are watching this later in the week.
The Pick
Seahawks -7.On Kalshi, that is Seattle winning by seven or more, 54 to 55 cents.
If you see a path for Washington to backdoor this and surprise us all, tell me. I do not think many people will.
Injury Report
- Jayden Daniels. Out, the same elbow as last November; the specialists have him for weeks. Mariota starts.
- Sam Darnold (SEA). Lower body, questionable, has a chance. Lock is the starter if he sits and it does not change the pick.
- Chig Okonkwo (WAS). Hamstring, questionable. Terry McLaurin caught 2 of 9 targets in Dallas.
- Weather. 71 degrees, wind 13, 39% chance of rain and a nor'easter that could change its path. The lower the conditions, the more this favors Seattle.
My picks for the rest of Week 3 are in NFL Week 3 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Marcus Mariota photo by All-Pro Reels, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
